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Police and Psychics

Lucy is very clever, since he/she/it uses phases as "straw man" and other quotes that are usually connected with critical thinking and using logic. It creates the illusion that he/she/it does think with his/her/its brain.
 
Lothian said:
Nothing has been proved. All we have here is one case where a psychic gave information (source unknown).

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The source is The Police Federation magazine, and the detective involved is named, and no one has given a rational, mundane explanation for why the 'psychic' was able to get the extremely rare nickname spot on, or how she knew about the details of the police officer which the other officers asked details of!

The only explanation so far is that she must have been involved in the crime, or that she was invlolved in a joint police conspiracy! With nothing to support either of those beliefs, then it is irrational to cling to them.

Ergo, the evidence remains undebunked.
 
Setting aside the issue of 'who calls who' for a moment, it's pretty significant that no one can point to a list of cases 'solved' by psychic means. If psychic powers existed there should be hundreds of cases a year in the UK where a psychic is instrumental in directly identifying murderers or locating missing persons.

But there aren't any. One officers' anecdotal account involving the usual parlor tricks is all that has been produced. Where are the list of crimes solved? Where is the list of murderers apprehended thanks to psychic information? Where is the list of missing persons located by the psychics?

Don't you think that, with detection rates for crime as low as they are, the police would publicly embrace any source that was genuinely helpful to them. It would be part of official policy and standard procedure. We wouldn't have to wade through BBC press releases and union literature to find reference to it.

It strikes me that this is akin to the dousing nonsense. Sure, there ,may be many well meaning folks out there who genuinely believe that they can detect water with a twitching stick. Sadly for them, whenever a double blind test is undertaken they fail. They are often shocked by their failure.

Same with the psychics. I'm sure that when they call the police station they think they can help. The fact is though that they don't. Solving a crime requires evidence.

And so do we.
 
Lucianarchy said:


The source is The Police Federation magazine,
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I was referring to the source of the psychic information.

Ergo, the evidence remains undebunked. [/B]
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So what. Even if it was true. What does the provision of one nickname proove. If a book listing the psychic conrtibution to the solving of UK Crimes 1900 to 2002 consists of the provision of a single nickname, is it any wonder that the police do not admit to using psychics.
 
Lucianarchy said:


The source is The Police Federation magazine, and the detective involved is named, and no one has given a rational, mundane explanation for why the 'psychic' was able to get the extremely rare nickname spot on, or how she knew about the details of the police officer which the other officers asked details of!

The only explanation so far is that she must have been involved in the crime, or that she was invlolved in a joint police conspiracy! With nothing to support either of those beliefs, then it is irrational to cling to them.

Ergo, the evidence remains undebunked.
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Well here is the explanation you crave.

The 'psychic' gave a cold reading. Many gueses were made. The failures were forgotten, and the hits remembered. Any 'rare' data was probably unwittingly voluntered by the officers themselves. That's how cold reading works. The account of the incident has also probably 'gained' much in the telling.

Ergo, the 'evidence' is anecdotal and unreliable.

If you want to see cold reading in action there is plenty of it on daytime TV. No doubt you beleive that too.
 
Lothian said:
The lack of successful challengers for the million dollar prize is all we need to know about the existence of paranormal powers.
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Why would anyone who understands the scientific method and the importance of independant peer review enter a 'challenge' in the first place? Without independant arbitration, how can any skeptic be sure that process and protocols form part of even a fair challenge? If you allow the JREF to do your thinking and make proclamations for you, then you are simply being biased and dependant, not skeptical. I think the JREF may do a good job in 'gatekeeping' the scammers and deluded, but serious investigation and evaluation must come from an unbiased source, one which uses independant peer review.
 
Brickroad said:
Lucianarchy: Just curious, but in your opinion should law enforcement agencies seek out and accept the help of psychics in their investigations? Should such evidence be admissible in a court of law?

If so, is such evidence to be considered infallible if no other evidence can be presented? Should juries be able to convict based solely on such evidence?
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That cuts right to the core of it. Luci has been repeatedly asked if she would be willing to be convicted of a crime on the basis of psychic testimony alone. To my knowledge, she has never answered that question. That pretty much deflates her position on the viability of psychic testimony.
 
Lucianarchy said:


Why would anyone who understands the scientific method and the importance of independant peer review enter a 'challenge' in the first place? Without independant arbitration, how can any skeptic be sure that process and protocols form part of even a fair challenge? If you allow the JREF to do your thinking and make proclamations for you, then you are simply being biased and dependant, not skeptical. I think the JREF may do a good job in 'gatekeeping' the scammers and deluded, but serious investigation and evaluation must come from an unbiased source, one which uses independant peer review.
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But the protocols are agreed in advance by both parties. The testing is not performed by JREF but by independant parties.

This is a pretty lame excuse for the failure of a single psychic to demonstrate any paranormal ability under controlled conditions.

Accoding to you psychicpowers have been demonstrated hundreds of times. These experiments can be replicated. So why no takers?:confused:
 
Lucianarchy said:
Why would anyone who understands the scientific method and the importance of independant peer review enter a 'challenge' in the first place? Without independant arbitration, how can any skeptic be sure that process and protocols form part of even a fair challenge? If you allow the JREF to do your thinking and make proclamations for you, then you are simply being biased and dependant, not skeptical. I think the JREF may do a good job in 'gatekeeping' the scammers and deluded, but serious investigation and evaluation must come from an unbiased source, one which uses independant peer review.
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Troll Alert! :eek:

Most people here have already seen this same line of crap from Luci numerous times and recognize the irrationality of her comments. No need to feed the troll yet again, unless that is your chosen hobby.
 
Lucianarchy said:


Why would anyone who understands the scientific method and the importance of independant peer review enter a 'challenge' in the first place? Without independant arbitration, how can any skeptic be sure that process and protocols form part of even a fair challenge? If you allow the JREF to do your thinking and make proclamations for you, then you are simply being biased and dependant, not skeptical. I think the JREF may do a good job in 'gatekeeping' the scammers and deluded, but serious investigation and evaluation must come from an unbiased source, one which uses independant peer review.
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get real luci....you don't mean "independant peer review" you mean "subjective judgment of results" I know double blind tests and self evident results are two things you refuse to accept.....to parapsychologists they are like kryptonite, they kill all thier super powers. Don't expect anyone who understands anything about the scientific method to accept subjective judgement of test results. If you understood anything about "Scientific method" you would understand how silly you look calling for it.

Once again I ask you...Just do it once, just once...anything paranormal...Just once.
 
RonSceptic said:


Well here is the explanation you crave.

The 'psychic' gave a cold reading. Many gueses were made. The failures were forgotten, and the hits remembered. Any 'rare' data was probably unwittingly voluntered by the officers themselves. That's how cold reading works. The account of the incident has also probably 'gained' much in the telling.

Ergo, the 'evidence' is anecdotal and unreliable.

If you want to see cold reading in action there is plenty of it on daytime TV. No doubt you beleive that too.
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It is as reliable as any other evidence that the police may detect from anyone else! A police officer recording whatever information any member of the public provides, is *not* anecdotal evidence, if you claimed that in a Court, you'd be laughed right out again!

You do not explain *how* the 'psychic' gained the information about the nickname or the information about the police officer. Simply saying 'probably' without any evidence is simply not good enough in light of the evidence. Too many 'skeptics' fall back on 'cold reading' without providing actual evidence of cold reading. I am looking for a rational explanation, not a guess. You make too many leaps of faith for a skeptic. How many 'guesses' do you think would have to made in order to get the name 'Pookie'? How could 'cold reading' give details of a police officer's imminent change in career or details of the same officer's current issues with property? They were only assigned to that case, that very *day*. Cold reading simply can't replicate that sort of thing, not under those circumstances.

"[...]Christine then described three different aspects of his (a police officer's ) personal life, none of which I had known about. We had not worked together before.

The first was extremely personal indeed and quite detailed. He confirmed those details to me after we had left. She also stated that he had received a letter concerning ‘essential electrical work’. He told me that he had received a mortgage offer from a Building Society the previous day, with the condition that the house he wanted to buy was rewired. Andy was quite dismissive about the third, which predicted his imminent transfer to another police area. Unexpected by him, maybe, but an order transferring him to another Division came within a few days. He was quite shaken by the whole experience. The Squad included more than twenty detectives, and we ourselves had picked up the assignment only that morning, and by chance. ""
 
RonSceptic said:



But the protocols are agreed in advance by both parties. The testing is not performed by JREF but by independant parties.

This is a pretty lame excuse for the failure of a single psychic to demonstrate any paranormal ability under controlled conditions.

Accoding to you psychicpowers have been demonstrated hundreds of times. These experiments can be replicated. So why no takers?:confused:
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Which part of, ' Without independant arbitration, what's to stop the JREF having the final say as to whether the applicant even gets to be tested, let alone what in *their* terms even constitutes 'self evident' , do you not understand? Without independant arbitration, how can any skeptic be sure that the whole thing isn't a publicity stunt weighted in favour of a biased organisation, the JREF *always* have the final say in these matters, right? How can on earth can that situation ever be seen as a fair challenge? Answer these points, they are very important.
 
xouper said:
Troll Alert! :eek:

Most people here have already seen this same line of crap from Luci numerous times and recognize the irrationality of her comments. No need to feed the troll yet again, unless that is your chosen hobby.
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Yes, call me a troll, irrational, kooky, whatever... as long as it means that you don't have to face up to answering exremely pertinent questions. You are transparent.
 
Luci,

Have you never seen a good cold reader in action? They can convince the gullible that they are talking to dead close family relatives. So guessing a nickname is far from out of the question.

Career move? How difficult is that? Any relocation, promotion, change of duties, whether in the recent past, or in the immediate future would have counted as a hit. Even if it was the other officer. ( Hey, crossed wires, It was me that had the career move!) It's like the old 'I can see water, a ship, travel...' trick. Just make the guess vaugue enough untill you hit something, anything, and let selective memory do the rest.

Cold reading is an established technique, widely precatised by magicians, mentalist, and tricksters. Given the choice between a simple case of cold reading, and the existence of some hitherto unproven paranormal powers I'll be guided by William of Occam on this one.

If this woman has powers, lets see a demonstation. She lives in a council flat. I'm sure she could do with $1,000,000.

If you believe she is genuine here's what to so. Pay for her to travel to Florida, take the test. and prove all the doubters wrong. No doubt you could take a 10% cut for your trouble.

Deal?
 
Lucianarchy said:


Yes, call me a troll, irrational, kooky, whatever... as long as it means that you don't have to face up to answering exremely pertinent questions. You are transparent.
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Not that Luci would ever avoid answering questions.............
 
Lucianarchy said:


you'd be laughed right out again!


The first was extremely personal indeed and quite detailed. He confirmed those details to me after we had left. She also stated that he had received a letter concerning ‘essential electrical work’. He told me that he had received a mortgage offer from a Building Society the previous day, with the condition that the house he wanted to buy was rewired. Andy was quite dismissive about the third, which predicted his imminent transfer to another police area. Unexpected by him, maybe, but an order transferring him to another Division came within a few days. He was quite shaken by the whole experience. The Squad included more than twenty detectives, and we ourselves had picked up the assignment only that morning, and by chance. ""
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What is impressive about this.

Luci, you have recieved a letter about essential electrical work. and will change jobs. I would have scored on both and I dare say a lot of forum members will.

There is a very high chance that my prediction are true. The Psychic gave no time limits. Neither have I . If you have ever bought a house the survey will comment on essential electrical works, even to say there are none. Not many people stay in the same job for ever. There is nothing supernatual about those predictions. You are aware of cold reading I take it.
 
Lothian said:


What is impressive about this.

Luci, you have recieved a letter about essential electrical work. and will change jobs. I would have scored on both and I dare say a lot of forum members will.

There is a very high chance that my prediction are true. The Psychic gave no time limits. Neither have I . If you have ever bought a house the survey will comment on essential electrical works, even to say there are none. Not many people stay in the same job for ever. There is nothing supernatual about those predictions. You are aware of cold reading I take it.
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Yes I am aware of cold reading. Cold reading does *not* give the sort of specifics which the woman gave. The first, we can't really comment on much as it was personal info that the officer confirmed, the second a specific letter about electrical work, that's not cold reading, that's specific detail. No cold reader does that, the third and imminent transfer to another police dept and within a few days it happened, that's not cold reading either, that's specific information. If it were *one*'lucky' guess, then maybe, but three *specific* hits and the correct hit about "pokie", that is not 'luck' and given the specifics, definately not 'cold reading' either!
 
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