Kevin_Lowe
Unregistered
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2003
- Messages
- 12,221
PART ONE: WHAT THE HELL JUST HAPPENED?
From the outside I am quite sure that the three consecutive Amanda Knox threads resemble a rugby match played between teams so covered in mud you don't even know who is on whose side, played by entirely unknown rules, mostly behind a wall that you couldn't be bothered looking over. Occasionally folks from the rest of the forum peer over the wall curious to see what the heck could possibly be going on in there, and leave as mystified as they came.
It's also an extraordinarily polarized thread. The pro-guilt side and the pro-innocence side are both quite convinced that the other side is colossally and wilfully misinformed about basic facts at best and wilfully mendacious at worst. So any attempt to summarise the contents of the thread and the events within it from either side will inevitably and immediately be met with outright contradiction from the other side. For outsiders there is no way to get an unbiased view of what's going on - one side or the other must be lying about what is going on, but which? Or maybe they're just all mad in there and it's best to wall them off and forget about them?
The fact as I see it is that the Amanda Knox thread is a new kind of problem for the JREF forum community. It has aspects in common with earlier thread blowouts, but the differences are hugely important.
While some JREFers do like to give the JREF community a pat on the back about how clever, rational and informed they are the fact remains that the JREF forum community mostly tackles problems which are objectively speaking extremely easy to get right. Is homeopathy real? Of course it bloody isn't, the whole idea is stupid and the evidence is unequivocal. Can Uri Geller really bend metal with his mind? Of coure he bloody can't, the whole idea is stupid and the evidence is unequivocal.
These are still important issues, because lots of stupid people believe in homeopathy and Uri Geller. Those battles are far from won.
By the same token lots of people can't read at all, so if you can read a David Eddings book all by yourself than you're one up on a frightening percentage of the population.
So when we had a massive influx of extremely motivated, partisan posters pushing 9/11 Truth the JREF forum community handled it admirably. The threads got somewhat out of control, it's true, and passions did run high, but the majority of JREFers were quite capable of keeping a handle on the fact that 9/11 Truth was stupid and the evidence was unequivocal. 9/11 Truth broke comfortably down to a lot of individual questions each of which were very individually manageable. Did the Pentagon plane go north of the CitGo (or whatever it was)? No. Did thermite bring down the towers? No, that's stupid. So on and so on. These were easy problems.
The Amanda Knox issue is frankly one hell of a lot harder to keep a handle on. The central claim that Amanda Knox, her boyfriend Raffaele Sollecito and local crook Rudy Guede ganged up to sexually molest and murder Amanda's housemate Meredith Kercher is not prima facie an extraordinary claim on the level of "thermite brought down the WTC!", and the prosecution case has literally hundreds of pages of facts and argument to support that claim.
On the other hand a lengthy list of DNA experts, criminologists, crime scene experts, senior former law enforcement officials and so on have gone on the record and said that the prosecution case is scientifically flawed, illogical, factually false, highly implausible and just plain fails to even approach proof beyond reasonable doubt.
On the other-other hand, the pro-guilt side respond that Raffaele Sollecito's dad is rich and well-connected, the Knox family have hired a PR firm with supervillain-level reach and powers to spread misinformation and hire experts to lie for them, that deranged Amanda Knox groupies were conducting a deliberate campaign to misinform the public, and that all of this supposed evidence and all of these supposed experts were tricks to foment public support for Amanda Knox.
It's not at all easy to decide who is right and who is wrong without mucking in yourself and actually trying to read hundreds of pages of content from both sides of the case, and even then it takes above-average memory and reasoning skills to keep track of even a significant chunk of the vast debate.
As a result when the influx of pro-guilt and pro-innocence partisans hit the forums the Amanda Knox threads "went critical" with sheer volume of controversial content. With dozens or hundreds of seperate and interesting issues to discuss, you could hash out in detail one particular issue (Was it or was it not the case that it was hard to climb in through Filomena's broken window?) but then in fifty pages time someone would just bring it up again, and then in another fifty pages they would bring it up again. Both sides would be adamant that last time it was discussed they won, so referring to previous discussion barely helped at all. With many, many points like this to discuss, the threads ran around in circles over mostly the same ground for 1800 or something pages of discussion.
JREF forum regulars took sides and pitched in alongsde the single-issue newcomers, but there was no clear "JREF side" and "outsider side" as there was with 9/11 Truth.
The thread appears to be winding up now, but that is not because anything has reached a consensus. It's more because one by one the most vociferous pro-guilt posters have either committed suicide by mod or volunatrily retreated to their own echo chamber at perugiamurdefile.org where they can ban all pro-innocence posters and agree with each other in peace.
It's also no wonder the mods are sick of the whole matter. The volume of posts is enormous, both sides are borderline uncivil at the best of times, the number of posts that go over the line is attested to by the sheer number of posts sent to AAH and posters sent to the changing rooms or banned, and it seems very clear to me from their PMF posts that some of the pro-guilt community were spamming their report buttons as hard as they could possibly get away with whether or not their complaints had any merit - Stilicho is still very vocally aggrieved that despite his PM-writing campaign the mods refused to move the thread into the Conspiracy Theories section for him.
My perception was and is that the pro-guit side were abusing the system and breaking the MA far more than the pro-innocence side, and I think this is reflected in the lengthy list of suspended and banned pro-guilt speakers. However they for their part are convinced that the moderators are all agin' them, that they never did anything the other side didn't do and that they never did anything to deserve being banned. Since the most offensive posts from both sides get deleted, unless you were there at the time establishing the truth or otherwise of these claims is impossible.
I did suggest to them that if they thought the moderation was biased they should actually make a complaint with evidence to back it up in the relevant section of the forum, but despite complaining long and loud about biased moderation they never did so as far as I am aware.
So that's a probably over-lengthy analysis of why the systems and people in place that normally hammer out a contentious issue in ten or twenty pages at most to the satisfaction of a skeptical audience failed completely in this case, leading to a self-perpetuating monster thread that in the end could only be resolved by the mods hunting down and shooting pro-guilt posters one by one until few were left. (They all had it coming).
The other side of the debate will have their own slant on absolutely everything I've said, as is their right.
Some day I'd like to write a Part Two, where I summarise for the JREF public and the annals of JREF history who was right (me, of course) and why (which would take some time, although less than you perhaps might expect). However while the Amanda Knox threads are still running that would be off-topic, and if I posted it there nobody would see it and it would soon vanish in the flood anyway.
The recent Fiona thread drew my attention to the fact that in the absence of any reasonable possibility of figuring out the facts for themselves, quite a few JREF forumites seem to have been using a sort of pack affiliation heuristic to fix an opinion - I like Fiona, Fiona is sad, Fiona must be in the right. Or Kevin is smart, Kevin says the prosecution case is a scientifically illiterate witch hunt, Kevin must be in the right. Obviously this is not how good skeptics should fix beliefs.
If you're tempted to fix a belief either way by this sort of primate pack affiliation, I urge you to instead either suspend belief completely or do your own research.
For my part I stand by the position that the pro-guilt community is a disturbingly cult-like entity with the same degree of scientific literacy as the 9/11 Twoofers, the same approach to lying about themselves and defaming their critics as the Scientologists, and their own unique pathology of enabling and encouraging fantasies of truly sickening and hateful violence against Knox, her family, and her supporters both on and off the internet. I think it's sad that we've had some of our posters go over to their side, and I think that you should take anything said about the topic from PMF members with a substantial grain of salt while they are immersed in that community. I'm not saying they should wear a yellow star but I do think they owe it to you to make their affiliations clear.
I think like in any cult, the people on the inside of the pro-guilt community feel perfectly normal. They get their information from the cult, they get their arguments from the cult and they feel just as rational as they ever did. To them it seems like the rest of the world slowly turned irrational - the mods turning against them, previously meticulously rational posters turning into crazed and dishonest partisans - and they are the only ones who stayed sane. Yet in fact as a group the PMFers are becoming more and more isolated from the reality-based world as they drift off deeper into their own echo chamber.
Then again they'll say that I'm off my tree too, so who are you to believe?
I hope that's shed at least a little light on what has been going on behind that wall where all the grunting and thumping happens, and from behind which a steady trickle of banned members have trudged away back to their home forums. You still will have no reasonable basis to say who was right and who was wrong, but hopefully you have some more idea of the general shape of the controversy and why the discussion exploded in such an unprecedented way.
From the outside I am quite sure that the three consecutive Amanda Knox threads resemble a rugby match played between teams so covered in mud you don't even know who is on whose side, played by entirely unknown rules, mostly behind a wall that you couldn't be bothered looking over. Occasionally folks from the rest of the forum peer over the wall curious to see what the heck could possibly be going on in there, and leave as mystified as they came.
It's also an extraordinarily polarized thread. The pro-guilt side and the pro-innocence side are both quite convinced that the other side is colossally and wilfully misinformed about basic facts at best and wilfully mendacious at worst. So any attempt to summarise the contents of the thread and the events within it from either side will inevitably and immediately be met with outright contradiction from the other side. For outsiders there is no way to get an unbiased view of what's going on - one side or the other must be lying about what is going on, but which? Or maybe they're just all mad in there and it's best to wall them off and forget about them?
The fact as I see it is that the Amanda Knox thread is a new kind of problem for the JREF forum community. It has aspects in common with earlier thread blowouts, but the differences are hugely important.
While some JREFers do like to give the JREF community a pat on the back about how clever, rational and informed they are the fact remains that the JREF forum community mostly tackles problems which are objectively speaking extremely easy to get right. Is homeopathy real? Of course it bloody isn't, the whole idea is stupid and the evidence is unequivocal. Can Uri Geller really bend metal with his mind? Of coure he bloody can't, the whole idea is stupid and the evidence is unequivocal.
These are still important issues, because lots of stupid people believe in homeopathy and Uri Geller. Those battles are far from won.
By the same token lots of people can't read at all, so if you can read a David Eddings book all by yourself than you're one up on a frightening percentage of the population.
So when we had a massive influx of extremely motivated, partisan posters pushing 9/11 Truth the JREF forum community handled it admirably. The threads got somewhat out of control, it's true, and passions did run high, but the majority of JREFers were quite capable of keeping a handle on the fact that 9/11 Truth was stupid and the evidence was unequivocal. 9/11 Truth broke comfortably down to a lot of individual questions each of which were very individually manageable. Did the Pentagon plane go north of the CitGo (or whatever it was)? No. Did thermite bring down the towers? No, that's stupid. So on and so on. These were easy problems.
The Amanda Knox issue is frankly one hell of a lot harder to keep a handle on. The central claim that Amanda Knox, her boyfriend Raffaele Sollecito and local crook Rudy Guede ganged up to sexually molest and murder Amanda's housemate Meredith Kercher is not prima facie an extraordinary claim on the level of "thermite brought down the WTC!", and the prosecution case has literally hundreds of pages of facts and argument to support that claim.
On the other hand a lengthy list of DNA experts, criminologists, crime scene experts, senior former law enforcement officials and so on have gone on the record and said that the prosecution case is scientifically flawed, illogical, factually false, highly implausible and just plain fails to even approach proof beyond reasonable doubt.
On the other-other hand, the pro-guilt side respond that Raffaele Sollecito's dad is rich and well-connected, the Knox family have hired a PR firm with supervillain-level reach and powers to spread misinformation and hire experts to lie for them, that deranged Amanda Knox groupies were conducting a deliberate campaign to misinform the public, and that all of this supposed evidence and all of these supposed experts were tricks to foment public support for Amanda Knox.
It's not at all easy to decide who is right and who is wrong without mucking in yourself and actually trying to read hundreds of pages of content from both sides of the case, and even then it takes above-average memory and reasoning skills to keep track of even a significant chunk of the vast debate.
As a result when the influx of pro-guilt and pro-innocence partisans hit the forums the Amanda Knox threads "went critical" with sheer volume of controversial content. With dozens or hundreds of seperate and interesting issues to discuss, you could hash out in detail one particular issue (Was it or was it not the case that it was hard to climb in through Filomena's broken window?) but then in fifty pages time someone would just bring it up again, and then in another fifty pages they would bring it up again. Both sides would be adamant that last time it was discussed they won, so referring to previous discussion barely helped at all. With many, many points like this to discuss, the threads ran around in circles over mostly the same ground for 1800 or something pages of discussion.
JREF forum regulars took sides and pitched in alongsde the single-issue newcomers, but there was no clear "JREF side" and "outsider side" as there was with 9/11 Truth.
The thread appears to be winding up now, but that is not because anything has reached a consensus. It's more because one by one the most vociferous pro-guilt posters have either committed suicide by mod or volunatrily retreated to their own echo chamber at perugiamurdefile.org where they can ban all pro-innocence posters and agree with each other in peace.
It's also no wonder the mods are sick of the whole matter. The volume of posts is enormous, both sides are borderline uncivil at the best of times, the number of posts that go over the line is attested to by the sheer number of posts sent to AAH and posters sent to the changing rooms or banned, and it seems very clear to me from their PMF posts that some of the pro-guilt community were spamming their report buttons as hard as they could possibly get away with whether or not their complaints had any merit - Stilicho is still very vocally aggrieved that despite his PM-writing campaign the mods refused to move the thread into the Conspiracy Theories section for him.
My perception was and is that the pro-guit side were abusing the system and breaking the MA far more than the pro-innocence side, and I think this is reflected in the lengthy list of suspended and banned pro-guilt speakers. However they for their part are convinced that the moderators are all agin' them, that they never did anything the other side didn't do and that they never did anything to deserve being banned. Since the most offensive posts from both sides get deleted, unless you were there at the time establishing the truth or otherwise of these claims is impossible.
I did suggest to them that if they thought the moderation was biased they should actually make a complaint with evidence to back it up in the relevant section of the forum, but despite complaining long and loud about biased moderation they never did so as far as I am aware.
So that's a probably over-lengthy analysis of why the systems and people in place that normally hammer out a contentious issue in ten or twenty pages at most to the satisfaction of a skeptical audience failed completely in this case, leading to a self-perpetuating monster thread that in the end could only be resolved by the mods hunting down and shooting pro-guilt posters one by one until few were left. (They all had it coming).
The other side of the debate will have their own slant on absolutely everything I've said, as is their right.
Some day I'd like to write a Part Two, where I summarise for the JREF public and the annals of JREF history who was right (me, of course) and why (which would take some time, although less than you perhaps might expect). However while the Amanda Knox threads are still running that would be off-topic, and if I posted it there nobody would see it and it would soon vanish in the flood anyway.
The recent Fiona thread drew my attention to the fact that in the absence of any reasonable possibility of figuring out the facts for themselves, quite a few JREF forumites seem to have been using a sort of pack affiliation heuristic to fix an opinion - I like Fiona, Fiona is sad, Fiona must be in the right. Or Kevin is smart, Kevin says the prosecution case is a scientifically illiterate witch hunt, Kevin must be in the right. Obviously this is not how good skeptics should fix beliefs.
If you're tempted to fix a belief either way by this sort of primate pack affiliation, I urge you to instead either suspend belief completely or do your own research.
For my part I stand by the position that the pro-guilt community is a disturbingly cult-like entity with the same degree of scientific literacy as the 9/11 Twoofers, the same approach to lying about themselves and defaming their critics as the Scientologists, and their own unique pathology of enabling and encouraging fantasies of truly sickening and hateful violence against Knox, her family, and her supporters both on and off the internet. I think it's sad that we've had some of our posters go over to their side, and I think that you should take anything said about the topic from PMF members with a substantial grain of salt while they are immersed in that community. I'm not saying they should wear a yellow star but I do think they owe it to you to make their affiliations clear.
I think like in any cult, the people on the inside of the pro-guilt community feel perfectly normal. They get their information from the cult, they get their arguments from the cult and they feel just as rational as they ever did. To them it seems like the rest of the world slowly turned irrational - the mods turning against them, previously meticulously rational posters turning into crazed and dishonest partisans - and they are the only ones who stayed sane. Yet in fact as a group the PMFers are becoming more and more isolated from the reality-based world as they drift off deeper into their own echo chamber.
Then again they'll say that I'm off my tree too, so who are you to believe?
I hope that's shed at least a little light on what has been going on behind that wall where all the grunting and thumping happens, and from behind which a steady trickle of banned members have trudged away back to their home forums. You still will have no reasonable basis to say who was right and who was wrong, but hopefully you have some more idea of the general shape of the controversy and why the discussion exploded in such an unprecedented way.
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