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Perdicting Earthquakes

EHocking, 1 in 30 to me isn't very often. That's why I said that. I'm sure for some 1 in 30 is all the time something is happening but not me. If it was 1 in 4 or something like that than maybe I can see that as happening more regularly.

Also the date this this earthquake happened was the 19th of Aug in Northern California, not the 19th of July.

As I said before I get my info about the earthquakes after they happen from the USGS site. Someone else posted it on here. Are there any other questions that you needed answered?
 
Drew599 said:
So what are the chances is what I'm asking?
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You thought something would happen; then it did happen. This might seem like an incredible coincidence to you but it happens all the time.

Take a step back and look at another example: Every day there are people that think they can win the lottery and they believe so strongly in this that they put their money down and by a lottery ticket. Even though the odds are several million to one against them, somebody does win. If you had used the numbers that came to your mind to buy a lottery ticket and you won the lottery, you could think you had some power of premonition. But we would know better because this happens all the time.
 
Dan O. I understand your story about the lottery. But its not like I make a lot of predictions like this. Maybe a couple a year. The more people that play the lottery the more will win. But of course there will be more losers as well. Believe me when I come up with these dates that I think something is going to happen I have great doubts that anything will happen. But what if it is something big that causes people to be uprooted from their homes and the break down of society. I would like to know when that's coming and plan for it so that I could have a better chance of making it out alive and to find the people I care about.

I'm kind of curious if some of you have heard of Ed May and the work that he's doing at LFR. If you haven't heard of him look him up and read about the testing that he's doing. Right now he's doing tests on the nervous system and how it can change before something happens. Now do the people that know what I'm talking about feel that he's lying about the data he's collecting because he has a pretty good method for collecting the information.

I understand that this is a skeptic forum but I feel that even if I got these predictions dead on with the time and everything that the people here wouldn't except it as preconitive. I just happen to be very lucky is what would more than likely be said here. But I came here because I like to discuss things like this with people that wouldn't just give into an idea that I presented.
 
Drew599 said:
EHocking, 1 in 30 to me isn't very often. That's why I said that. I'm sure for some 1 in 30 is all the time something is happening but not me. If it was 1 in 4 or something like that than maybe I can see that as happening more regularly.
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Well, the 1 in 30 odds would only be of significance if you had predicted the quake on the actual day it occurred. As it was, you were out by 24 hours, therefore the odds of you picking the day, +/- a day, are closer to 1 in 10.

Also the date this this earthquake happened was the 19th of Aug in Northern California, not the 19th of July.

As I said before I get my info about the earthquakes after they happen from the USGS site. Someone else posted it on here. Are there any other questions that you needed answered?
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I got my date from the USGS site as well (link to http://www.ncedc.org/cgi-bin/catalog-search2.pl ) and could not find a quake for August 19 2006. As I said, the only quake of mag5 for the year 2006 in California was on the 19th July. where exactly did you get the date that "confirms" your conviction that your prediction was close to 18th Aug?

One other question are you in North or South Cal?
 
EHocking said:
Well, the 1 in 30 odds would only be of significance if you had predicted the quake on the actual day it occurred. As it was, you were out by 24 hours, therefore the odds of you picking the day, +/- a day, are closer to 1 in 10.
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Except that, as noted by NoZed Avenger, 32 per year is actually about 3 per month. Call it 1 every 10 days. And he was wrong by 24 hours, so we end up with close to a 33% chance of getting it right. Even with all the rounding errors it's not more than about 25%. And we're only hearing about this after the event, giving potential for post hoc fallacies (and of course simple fraud). And the USGS doesn't even seem to agree that there was an earthquake at that time at all. Colour me less than impressed.
 
Cuddles said:
Except that, as noted by NoZed Avenger, 32 per year is actually about 3 per month. Call it 1 every 10 days. And he was wrong by 24 hours, so we end up with close to a 33% chance of getting it right. Even with all the rounding errors it's not more than about 25%. And we're only hearing about this after the event, giving potential for post hoc fallacies (and of course simple fraud). And the USGS doesn't even seem to agree that there was an earthquake at that time at all. Colour me less than impressed.
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That'll teach me to post after a couple of pints!

So it would appear this thread is over, since Drew in post 21 thinks that a 1 in 4 chance is nothing significant:

EHocking, 1 in 30 to me isn't very often. That's why I said that. I'm sure for some 1 in 30 is all the time something is happening but not me. If it was 1 in 4 or something like that than maybe I can see that as happening more regularly.
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Drew599 said:
I do have some dates that I pulled out of my head a couple months ago. But I'm not sure what it is that's suppose to happen. Doesn't feel like an earthquake. For whatever reason it feels as if the next date coming up will be a lead in to another event happening on a date almost a month away from that one. I'm a little leary about posting the date here. Not like it really means much if I don't have an event to go with it. But here it is...March 21st and then April 19th. I got these dates a little over 3 months ago. So if they do happen I'm really interested to see how off I might be because the last prediction I made that was a month out was off by 24 hours.

I know the people on this forum are going to tear this apart because I don't have an event to go with this dates. But you asked so I'm telling you. If I have an idea of what it is before it happens I'll post it here so there's a record of it.
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I applaud you, Drew, on your willingness to go on record with this. If you turn out to be correct, it will be a start as to showing that you do indeed have this talent. Of course, two trials is not enough to be statistically significant, but it would certainly be attention getting.

Recall though, that if there is a "significant" earthquake every twelve days or so, by random chance, predicting a correct day either before, on, or after the earthquake has a probability of roughly one in four.
 
Reno said:
I think you misunderstood what I was saying, but no matter, it seems you are going to try to name an event or events to go with your dates. That's good Drew.

Don't worry about being torn apart here, I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen. ...
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Well, if the event or events are tornadoes, and they occur just where Drew happens to be, then he could well be torn apart.

OTOH, that'd be a neat trick.

M.
 
Drew599 said:
Dan O. I understand your story about the lottery. But its not like I make a lot of predictions like this. Maybe a couple a year. The more people that play the lottery the more will win. But of course there will be more losers as well.
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You haven't got it yet about the lottery example. If everybody made a couple of predictions a year just like yours, some of them are going to come true just because there are a lot more people than the probability against the prediction. The only reason you are here is because you happened to be one of the people that made a successful prediction.

Here is another example: Take 1000 coins and 1 at a time and flip that coin up to 10 times. If any of the flips lands tails, put that coin back in the jar and try the next one. By the time you finish flipping these coins you have a good chance of finding 1 coin in the thousand that would flip heads 10 times in a row. What is special about about that coin? Do you think it will perform any better than the other coins on the next 10 flips?

Getting back to your prediction, Of the billions of people on this planet, you just happened to have a prediction come true. If there wasn't an earthquake that fit your prediction, you would have gone right back into the jar with the other coins that failed to flip 10 heads in a row.
 
EHocking, you were right about the date. It was the 19th of July, I just looked back in my journal. Sorry for providing the wrong date.
 
Drew599 said:
The way I see it if I'm able to just sit down one day and pull a date and later on a time of when an earthquake of greater the average magnitude is going to happen then, to me, this would be strong proof of precognition. Of course it isn't rock solid proof and there is a chance that I could have guessed this date. Its not like I predict all these things happening so I can be right on some of them. This was the only big event that I had tried to get in over 6 months. I've been wrong on one date that I thought something was going to happen. But so far my average is 50%. It would be a little higher but I don't count predictions where I'm a couple days off.
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As it stands, you're giving yourself rather substantial geographical wiggle room. For your next round of predictions, may I suggest including the location(s) of the epicenter(s)?

Example: [magnitude]; [date]; [time]; [40.642°N, 124.870°W]
 
The next two dates that I posted I said that I don't think they will be earthquakes and I don't think it will be in California...at least the first date. As soon as I can get some more info I'll post it here.

I also hope that I'm wrong because I have a life that I want to keep living and not have anything bad interrupt it. This is something that I'm trying to understand.
 
Tricky said:
Yeah, my wife says that all the time, then laughs loudly at her own bon mot as if she has just invented the world's most clever retort.
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If only there were more folks like your wife here . . .
 
Drew599 said:
I know the people on this forum are going to tear this apart because I don't have an event to go with this dates.
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Only on a skeptics board would this go unnoticed for so long. If this is a sign to show you are sirius you are in the wrong house.
 
Drew599 said:
The next two dates that I posted I said that I don't think they will be earthquakes and I don't think it will be in California...at least the first date.
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Ok, so at the moment the information you have is:

1 - Something will happen on March 21st which you don't think is an earthquake and you also don't think will be in California.

2 - Something will happen on April 19th.


I am posting this in case you forgot to keep a journal. I will post updates to what we have from you as you post more info.
 
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