PEAR remote viewing - what the data actually shows

An argument was advanced that if the standards of evidence change, it's paranormal.
I believe the point was that if the standards of evidence change from scientific standards, then the study is no longer scientific.

The corallory being that any search for truth that is not scientific is not worth doing. Courtrooms settle for lousy evidence (like personal testimony!) because they have to, not because it is how one determines truth. After all, a court must reach a decision. It cannot withhold judgement until more data comes in.

Perhaps one way of defining the paranormal would be as something that requires solid repeatable evidence with a p-value of less than 0.001 due to random chance.
The definition of paranormal is quite clearly "things that science will never validate because they are stupid." String theory is not paranormal, even if it is bad science, because it does not invalidate Newton's laws. Paranormal claims do.

The way to define paranormal is to ask if it violates Newton's observations - that is, if it violates Newton's laws on the scales and sizes that Newton made his observations on. Relativity does not; String theory does not; paranormal does. Ergo, paranormal requires not just a revision of science but an overturning of it. Ergo, it is stupid.
 
It seems to me that this type of defense of the PEAR results could end up hypothesising something that has nothing to do with what people know and love as "psi".
Much like the theological redefinition of God into a "First Cause" destroys the God so many people pray to.

I don't know why "retreat into obscurity" is considered a viable defense. If psi is as small as David says it is, then who cares about psi? It's too small to do anything.

"If the existance of a thing is indistinguishable from its non-existance, we say that thing does not exist. This is called Reason." - Yahzi Coyote
 
It's difficult to determine whether small effects exist, but it's not impossible.
I did mention that I can make sub-angstrom measurements. :)

For very small effects, such as was being theorized here, it's quite possible that the effect would simply be part of the overall chaos of day-to-day operations and thus neither suspected nor tested for by the Casino operators.
Except, as Steenkh pointed out, a level of psi this small would not be the psi everyone is talking about. Even if this level of psi were proven, the paranormal enthusiasts would still be wrong, because their claims bear no resemblance to this claim.
 
There's RNG studies, Ganzfeld, and some other suggestive preliminary possible results.
That's the problem, Tai, which you can't seem to get past.

150 some odd years and still you have "suggestive preliminary possible results." And you crow about them.

It's as if Galileo dropped one rock from the Leaning Tower and used that as evidence that items of different size and weight fell at equal speeds.

Then doing it again a few years later and acting as if the findings were new.

Then promising, again, that the conclusive experiment with two rocks is just around the corner.


Tai Chi said:
Why do you believe I personally have to undertake any psi experiments?
For the same reason you believed I had admitted that more studies needed to be done regarding both the speed of light and psi.

If it's not apropos now, it wasn't then.
 
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The standard of evidence for determining what is real does not change.

This standard is the one you employ when searching for your car keys. Applying any other standard to a scientific question is hypocritical.

You're not making much sense here. Psi is not a physical entity like one's keys. Would you determine whether or not 1 + 1 = 2 is true using the same standard you do to finding your keys?
 
I believe the point was that if the standards of evidence change from scientific standards, then the study is no longer scientific.
Well, that wasn't what I got from it, but I'll accept that that was your impression.

The corallory being that any search for truth that is not scientific is not worth doing.
We'll have to disagree here.
Courtrooms settle for lousy evidence (like personal testimony!) because they have to, not because it is how one determines truth. After all, a court must reach a decision. It cannot withhold judgement until more data comes in.
I think that the idea that people must settle for the evidence that is available is true for the sciences as well. That's basically the point I was trying to make.

The definition of paranormal is quite clearly "things that science will never validate because they are stupid." String theory is not paranormal, even if it is bad science, because it does not invalidate Newton's laws. Paranormal claims do.

I think this definition is exactly why David has been avoiding the use of the term paranormal. Clearly, he was wise to do so.
 
I did mention that I can make sub-angstrom measurements. :)

Except, as Steenkh pointed out, a level of psi this small would not be the psi everyone is talking about. Even if this level of psi were proven, the paranormal enthusiasts would still be wrong, because their claims bear no resemblance to this claim.

Well, not quite everyone. :)

At any rate, if psi is real, it need not always be a small effect when looking at individual occurrences. The small measured effect could be due to the effect size being mulitplied by the probability of occurrence which is small. The question then becomes is the probability of occurrence better than what would be expected due to random chance alone?
 
150 some odd years and still you have "suggestive preliminary possible results."

What is your point exactly? We understand there are reported suggestive results. We also understand that the field of parapsychology gets cents compared to billions of dollars in other areas (areas I agree have much more practical results).

You, on the other hand, instead of accepting these realities as indication that more study is needed (you know, science?), pretend that the evidence, or even the phenomenon, doesn't exist. Since when does small effect over time = no effect?
 
What is your point exactly?
That your attempts to put the state of parapyschological research on a par with other fields is misguided.

T'ai Chi said:
We understand there are reported suggestive results.
We understand they never seem to hold up under scrutiny. We understand that NO progress has been made in all the time research into parapsychology has been occurring.

T'ai Chi said:
We also understand that the field of parapsychology gets cents compared to billions of dollars in other areas
How much money was spent on Stargate by the military?

How much money did HBO spend to fund Schwartz's Afterlife Experiments? Have they ever funded any non-parapsychological research?

But assuming you are correct, why don't you consider the reasons?

There exist out there at least two general sources of funding for research:

1. Venture Capitalists.

2. Successful practicioners of the paranormal arts.

Why are they not providing funds, T'ai?

Here's why:

1. They see no return on investment, i.e., they can't be convinced it will work. Yet Venture Capitalists will invest in privatized space exploration and multi-billion dollar medical drug development.

2. They know it won't turn anything up because they know they're not doing anything real.


T'ai Chi said:
(areas I agree have much more practical results).
Then you don't believe in the paranormal or the parapsychological at all.

What could be more practical than finding groundwater in the barren lands of Africa or finding oil the first time a rig is built in a place that has minimal ecological impact?

What could be more practical than determining via remote viewing exactly how far along Iran's nuclear program is and where their facilities are? Or North Korea's?

What could be more practical than being able to psychically prove George W. Bush is or isn't misleading the public into going to a misguided war?

T'ai Chi'You said:
The only reality is that the evidence is lacking.

T'ai Chi said:
pretend that the evidence, or even the phenomenon, doesn't exist.
There's no pretending about it. Just as I don't need to pretend there are no blue rhinos in my desk drawer.

Since when does small effect over time = no effect?
Since when does vanishing effect when controls are tightened = real effect?
 
The problem is that you do not know what the word "small" means.

Its a relative term. You originally asked how can Las Vegas be explained if PK/ESP were true. An answer could be that the effect is relatively small compared to their total profits so as to not affect them in any significant way. Whether the effects would be noticed is an issue we are trying to resolve.

How can you admit you have no facts, and yet continue to argue?

We both seem to have little facts on this matter. Thats the trouble with the gambling industry having a tight control over their financial information. Like any business, their just trying to protect their own interests.

The point I am trying to make is that certain things - like, for instance, corporations care about millions of dollars - are universal, and can be assumed to apply to all industries.

They obviously care about their profits. But they have to know about a weak PK/ESP effect in order to care about it. I'm not willing to rule out the possibility that they either simply don't see it or attribute it to other sources.
Do the machines cost 30 bajillion dollars? Then no, they don't hire gamblers to test them, any more than the car industry hires race-car drivers to test every car that comes off the line.

So we'll agree to assume they are tested automatically by other machines. This means that our PK/ESP effect has not had the chance to influence the machines when they leave the factory. We can thus rule out that manufacturers notice an effect - because an effect is not there yet. The whole point of this argument is that gamblers exert a PK/ESP effect. No gamblers, no effect. We'll have to focus on the data from casinos instead.
How often does a company check how much money it is making or losing? Are you serious?

The answer is: as often as necessary.

Which is how long? This is important because the variance in payout percentage of slot machines would be expected to get smaller the longer period over which you look at the data. If they looked at daily payout percentages, the variance would be quite large. If it was over a week, less so, etc etc.

I have just been reading an interesting paper by Dean Radin and Jannine Rebman on psi in the casino. They did manage to get some casino data through some contacts

http://www.boundaryinstitute.org/articles/casino.pdf

On table 2 there is a histogram bar for slot machine data taken over a period of several years. The error bar seems to be 1 or 2 % on either side. Then take a look at figure 7. Thats the slot machine over several years but broken down for each day of the week. The difference between the highest and lowest payout values is about 7%. If this is taken from several years of data, imagine the variance over individual days! If you were a casino operator, would you be able to be able to tell if any of these deviations from manufacturers stated payout percentage was due to a small PK/ESP effect?


After 50 years, 50 billion dollars, and 50 million people, the most definitive test has been performed, and the results are uniformly negative.

What results are you refering to?
 
After 50 years, 50 billion dollars, and 50 million people, the most definitive test has been performed, and the results are uniformly negative.

Negative except those pesky RNG and Ganzfeld studies, and some others, that is.
 
Thanks for your response David. I can see you have been very busy in this thread.

I do not think the PEAR results support the view that 'remote viewing is likely'.
But I was actually asking you why you believe that 'remote viewing is likely'.

I do not know of any studies that set out to prove that remote viewing is not possible.
I was actually referring to the huge body of evidence garnered from everyday life experience - vis ...
I cannot remotely view things.
You cannot remotely view things.
Mr & Ms X cannot remotely view things.
No compelling evidence is seen to support the far fetched claim.
Nobody has ever reported that students cheat on the exams by remotely viewing others exam papers.
Nobody has ever won the lottery by remotely viewing the correct numbers.

Hmmm.
If you won't tell me why you think that 'remote viewing is likely', then perhaps you can tell me what sort of evidence would convice you that 'remote viewing is unlikely'?
 
I think you confirm David's point - what is considered 'paranormal' is very subjective. Attempts at objective definitions only seem to lead to the inclusion of things as paranormal that most people would not consider being in that category.
Not so. Can you see the difference between the two options I offered? One is definitely based on objectivity, one definitely on subjectivity. Perhaps you confuse the process with the basis?
 
Based on this information, would you regard tetraneutrinos as paranormal? If not, why not?

No. You keep misunderstanding what science is. Science is first and foremost connected: Scientific discoveries are based on earlier discoveries and facts. There is nothing paranormal about tetraneutrinos, because they build on earlier knowledge. It's a very interesting and barrier-breaking idea, but it doesn't overthrow everything we have learned so far. It's just a new explanation.

Parapsychology is nothing like that at all. Out of the blue, totally isolated from everything else, its "discoveries" stand alone. The "discoveries" are not used to build on new ideas. We don't see a progression of discoveries, built from earlier ones. Theories are not refined based on observation.

Quite. But how would they know this is down to PK/ESP? The money lost by an unrecognised PK/ESP effect may have been attributed to cheating or variance in payout percentage (or other sources of loss I haven't thought of yet ;) ).

You do understand the consequences of what you are saying here?

If there was an unrecognized PK/ESP effect, then we don't have any scientific explanations at all. Everything we have ever read on a thermometer would potentially be false, because someone, somewhere, sometime would influence it. We don't have statistics either.

Your excuse is unfalsifiable. You might as well exchange "unrecognized PK/ESP effect" with "God".

You skipped these:

  • Can you show me those four different replications of homeopathy?
  • Can you explain why homeopathy, when tested properly, does not work?
  • Are you convinced of the validity of these tests? That homeopathy works? Yes or no.
  • Can you show me that cold fusion works?
  • Do you believe that cold fusion works? Yes or no.
  • Can you name one psychic that gets a better hit rate than chance? If yes, do so.
 
Not so. Can you see the difference between the two options I offered? One is definitely based on objectivity, one definitely on subjectivity. Perhaps you confuse the process with the basis?

Er...no. For example, Newton never observed an aeroplane and many many people, prior to advent of working airplanes, claimed it wasn't possible because they thought it would violate everything they knew about how the world worked. But it's not paranormal. Like every other definition of paranormal given in this thread, it doesn't exclude things that are obviously NOT paranormal.
 
I think that the idea that people must settle for the evidence that is available is true for the sciences as well. That's basically the point I was trying to make.
But that is not the case.

Science can simply say, "We don't know." Science can observe an effect and admit it does not know the cause yet.

While it is true we may still have to take action of some kind, that is not the same thing as reaching a definitive conclusion.

I think this definition is exactly why David has been avoiding the use of the term paranormal. Clearly, he was wise to do so.
In other words, he has cleverly avoided labeling his claims, so as to obfuscate them.

What he claims is a violation of the Standard Model of physics. Not a refinement, like string theory, but a violation. That is what paranormal means: other than normal. A violation of established physics.

If he wants to claim this effect is consistent with observed phsyics, then he needs to offer a mechanism that is consistent with observatoins. But, like every member of the psi world, all he offers is a conclusion. No mechanism, no conformity to other observations, just a claimed effect.

Would you determine whether or not 1 + 1 = 2 is true using the same standard you do to finding your keys?
Yes. In both cases the truth of the proposition is reduced to an observation. Put an apple in a sack, add an apple, open the sack and count: 2 apples. Simalarily, you know when you have found your car keys by observation: put the key in the car, see if it starts.

Furthermore, these observations are reproducible, publicly verifable, and not in conflict with other observations.

At any rate, if psi is real, it need not always be a small effect when looking at individual occurrences.
But that is not consistent with David's claim that it is a weak effect. Instead, that would be a rare effect, which is entirely different.

This is the problem: people are arguing for the existance of a phenomona without bothering to define the phenomona. This is proof it is word salad instead of scientific search for truth. Even we disagree on whether or not standards of evidence change, surely you agree that standards of logic do not. Until the psi-believers define what they claim to have seen, it is pointless to discuss evidence for it.

Much like the discussion of God. All of this is just theology: word-games designed to create room for self-indulgent belief.
 
For example, Newton never observed an aeroplane and many many people, prior to advent of working airplanes, claimed it wasn't possible because they thought it would violate everything they knew about how the world worked.
That's not a good example.

The observations that lead people to conclude that airplanes were impossible were wrong. They stemmed from an inadequate understanding of gases.

Can you suggest which set of observations of the Standard Model of physics must be wrong to allow for psi?

Paranormal does not mean new refinements. It means overturning of the old.

Maybe this article will shed some light on this issue: The Relativity of Wrong
 
Its a relative term.
And the point is you do not understand the scales of relativity involved.

0.5% is not anywhere close to "small." If you want to hinge your entire case on the idea that psi is small enough to escape detection, then you need to have some kind of grasp on what you mean by "small."

Angstroms are small. I claim to be able to look at a surface and tell you that one side has an extra layer of molecules on it. That's small.

You originally asked how can Las Vegas be explained if PK/ESP were true.
Perhaps this is the problem: you did not understand my question.

What I asked (and am asking) is this: how can you explain that Las Vegas has not uncovered psi, given that they are highly motivated to do so? Furthermore, that they are better funded and have access to more test subjects than every other psi experiement in the history of the world put together.

Whether the effects would be noticed is an issue we are trying to resolve.
Whether Las Vegas is capable of accounting for their money would seem to be an issue that does not require "resolving."

We both seem to have little facts on this matter.
The only person who lacks facts is you. I have presented many, many facts, of common and easily verifiable nature. You, on the other hand, do not understand how corporations work.

Thats the trouble with the gambling industry having a tight control over their financial information.
Either you are being deliberatly obtuse, or you are not bothering to read my posts. I gave you a link to the people who routinely audit the gambling industry's financial information.

Again, your argument relies on the ignorance and incompetence of professionals. You seem to assume that if you don't know something, no one does. You project your complete innocence of facts onto everyone. Trust me when I say that this projection of your own incompetence onto people who have been working in an specific industry for decades is likely to found insulting.

I'm not willing to rule out the possibility that they either simply don't see it or attribute it to other sources.
More to the point, you're perfectly willing to rule it in.

Do you see the problem here? You are not trying to explain how psi can exist, you are engaged in a desperate hunt to find any shred of uncertainity for it to hide in.

This means that our PK/ESP effect has not had the chance to influence the machines when they leave the factory.
I presented a plausible explanation of how psi could affect machines being tested by other machines. All it requires is a violation of time and space - but then, all psi requires that anyway. On what grounds did you reject my time-traveling claim?

Before you answer, think very carefully. Are those grounds the same ones I am using to reject your theory of psi altogether?

You are more than willing to rule out an obvious silly claim becuase it is obviously silly... yet you expect us to take your other silly claims seriously. Why?

Perhaps the answer is that you don't realize that psi is obviously as silly as time-travel. That would explain a lot, and be consistent with your general lack of knoweldge of how things work.

In other words, you only accept psi because you don't understand physics or psi. By carefully refusing to focus on the possible mechanisms, and only looking at a few studies, you can pretend to beleive in an effect without ever actually describing what that effect is or how it could possibly work.

This is important because the variance in payout percentage of slot machines would be expected to get smaller the longer period over which you look at the data. If they looked at daily payout percentages, the variance would be quite large.
Once again, you assume casino owners are idiots. And you demonstrate your failure to understand the basics of this industry.

I assure you, somewhere in the State law that requires slot machines to maintain a given payout ratio is a rule on how often that ratio has to be checked. And since I assume the people doing this are not idiots, I assume they picked a time period that yields accurate results, based on their 50 years of experience.

If you were a casino operator, would you be able to be able to tell if any of these deviations from manufacturers stated payout percentage was due to a small PK/ESP effect?
Are you assuming that psi could affect variance on certain days, without affecting the overall total variance? I hope not.

As for whether the 1% variance is explainable by psychics, the answer is yes, unless you think some psychics go to the casino and lose on purpose. This is the point: the psi effect is one-sided. Ergo, even in a random level of noise of 1% you can still detect smaller than 1% influence, because you know which direction it is supposed to go.

So if a machine is supposed to pay out 15%, it has an error bar of 1%, and psi is a .01% effect, then a normal machine pays out 14-16% and a paranormal machine pays out 14.01-16.01%

What results are you refering to?
The results that show that people who claim to be able to psychically predict/affect things cannot do so.
 
The declined to mention the best part of this article, which appears in the 2nd paragraph.

Payout percentages were predicted to be positively correlated with lunar cycle and with gravitational tidal forces... Nearly significant correlations were observed for lunar cycle, and significant correlations were observed for tidal forces.
Your paper asserts that psi is stronger when the moon is closer.

Is that the claim you really want to endorse?

And I have a huge problem with their paper: a slot machine rake of 60% is a violation of state law. Either his numbers are wrong, or he is explaining them wrong. Either way, when page 1 violates State law, it's kind of a problem.

This paper is an excellent example of what I was talking about: the psi advanced by these researchers bears no resembalence to the psi you are defending, which in turn is wholly different than the psi Beth is defending.
 
T'ai said:
Call it whatever label you want. Just like those who argue against religion/god(s) by calling god(s) a teapot orbiting Pluto, invisible pink unicorn/dragon, FSM, etc.

Labels aren't important, just study effects, if any.
The problem with this is that it's a perpetual data mining endeavor. At some point you have to come up with a theory of psi so that you can derive hypotheses from the theory and then test them. As it stands now, all the hypotheses in psi experiments are hypotheses about the experimental procedure and the following statistical analysis, not about any underlying theory. One mistake in the procedure and the results are meaningless.

It's time for a theory of remote viewing. Or is it a theory of retropsychokinesis? Or was that precognition? In any event, at some point you gotta stop dropping balls off the Tower of Pisa and get on with a theory.

~~ Paul
 

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