Paul would have had a 20-30% chance

[ZenFountain]

Congressman Ron Paul's decision to essentially suspend his presidential campaign and focus instead on safeguarding his Congressional seat will confuse and disappoint many of his supporters, while delighting establishment media debunkers, but the truth of how far we have progressed and the reality of the battles that lie ahead show that the campaign has made a shrewd decision.

After months of media censorship, smear attacks and dirty tricks, Ron Paul was essentially left with four choices.

....(option two)

-Drop out of the Republican race and run as a third party candidate. Up against Hillary and McCain, Paul would have had a 20-30% chance of success but would have immediately endangered his Congressional seat.

http://prisonplanet.com/articles/february2008/020908_ron_paul.htm

I wonder what Alex will do now that the 9/11 troof movement and Ron Paul have died, the man will probably burst into flames without legions of zombies kissing his feet and stroking his ego. Why not just come right out and say it, Paul is right where he began, a congressman with a loyal following of kooks that is otherwise unimportant in the landscape of American politics.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

 

[Bob Klase]

Up against Hillary and McCain, Paul would have had a 20-30% chance of success

I'd like to see the math on that 20-30%. He's averaged 4.5% of the vote in the primaries. Maybe that means Hillary has a 300-400% chance of success?

 

[NeoRicen]

He can't even get double digits in the Republican primaries, and his views are pure Conservatism, he'd probably get LESS in the actual election.

 

[Puppycow]

Clearly if "success" is supposed to mean actually winning the election, this is laughable. But actually, I've been been wondering whether an anti-war protest candidate might enter the mix at some point, which could potentially siphon off some support for the Democratic nominee and swing the election like Nader did for Bush in 2000.

 

[SezMe]

There's a Hillary/McCain ticket? News bulletin for me.

 

[timhau]

He would have had a 20-30 % chance of survival. But there is only a 7% chance of that.

 

[leftysergeant]

Now, this has me scratching my head. RP got 21% of the caucus in Washington State.

A state that tries to live up to the nickname that the FDR people gave us: "The Soviet of Washington." The state where the military voters keep liberals like Norm Dicks and Patty Murray in Congress. The home of William O. Douglas.

We're different out here.

I didn't realize we were that bloody different.

And we still haven't heard from most of the "fly-over" states, where the vote of a total moron outweigh those of three PhDs in Seattle, come the general elections.

And Huckabee didn't come out far behind McCain, either.

Don't rule anybody out, just yet. RP may actually turn out to be a power broker, if Huckabbee can hold on to the last vote.

 

[Tricky]

Maybe that "20-30%" chance referred to the possibility of him winning a single state. That's pushing it, IMO, but not outside the range of possibilities, what with Republican dissatisfaction with McCain. Of course, it would just hand the election to the Democrats and destroy any hope of Paul ever being considered for a Republican office again.

In fact, even right now, Paul is fighting for his congressional life against an opponant who has more funds for the local election than Paul does. It is quite possible that Paul's exposure as a loony-enabler could mean losing his heavily conservative district. So this is undoubtedly a pragmatic move on his part. I hope all his internet supporters didn't really need all that money they flushed down the drain to support him.

 

[Richard Masters]

Maybe that "20-30%" chance referred to the possibility of him winning a single state. That's pushing it, IMO, but not outside the range of possibilities, what with Republican dissatisfaction with McCain. Of course, it would just hand the election to the Democrats and destroy any hope of Paul ever being considered for a Republican office again.

In fact, even right now, Paul is fighting for his congressional life against an opponant who has more funds for the local election than Paul does. It is quite possible that Paul's exposure as a loony-enabler could mean losing his heavily conservative district. So this is undoubtedly a pragmatic move on his part. I hope all his internet supporters didn't really need all that money they flushed down the drain to support him.

The average donation per person for Ron Paul has been 100 dollars. Compare to the average donation for the other candidates.

 

[remirol]

The average donation per person for Ron Paul has been 100 dollars. Compare to the average donation for the other candidates.

I wonder how many of those donations _for each candidate_ came from people who could trivially afford the amount of their donation?

 

[Mister Agenda]

http://prisonplanet.com/articles/february2008/020908_ron_paul.htm

I wonder what Alex will do now that the 9/11 troof movement and Ron Paul have died, the man will probably burst into flames without legions of zombies kissing his feet and stroking his ego. Why not just come right out and say it, Paul is right where he began, a congressman with a loyal following of kooks that is otherwise unimportant in the landscape of American politics.

I think he can manage to avoid spontaneous human combustion.

At 72 he can probably get over a few months of rock star treatment.

He's not QUITE where he began. A lot MORE kooks know about him now. And he's got a mailing list worth 20 million dollars to the right candidate.

 

[NoZed Avenger]

Now, this has me scratching my head. RP got 21% of the caucus in Washington State.

A state that tries to live up to the nickname that the FDR people gave us: "The Soviet of Washington." The state where the military voters keep liberals like Norm Dicks and Patty Murray in Congress. The home of William O. Douglas.

We're different out here.

I didn't realize we were that bloody different.

And we still haven't heard from most of the "fly-over" states, where the vote of a total moron outweigh those of three PhDs in Seattle, come the general elections.

Well, if a 21% vote for Ron Paul is an example of Washington's super-intelligent Ph.D.'s versus us poor morons here in fly-over country, then *Thank Ed*. We morons will get on with our drooling and crayons, and y'all's mega-geniuses can get back to curing world hunder and getting us back to the gold standard. Let us know how that all works out -- but you'd better use small words, you know how easily we can get confused or distrac- HEY, A SHINY NICKEL!!!

 

[Richard Masters]

I wonder how many of those donations _for each candidate_ came from people who could trivially afford the amount of their donation?

I wonder, too. I don't think that data is available, though.

 

[Richard Masters]

Well, if a 21% vote for Ron Paul is an example of Washington's super-intelligent Ph.D.'s versus us poor morons here in fly-over country, then *Thank Ed*. We morons will get on with our drooling and crayons, and y'all's mega-geniuses can get back to curing world hunder and getting us back to the gold standard. Let us know how that all works out -- but you'd better use small words, you know how easily we can get confused or distrac- HEY, A SHINY NICKEL!!!

Let me know how sending people to die in Iraq for irrational reasons works out for you.

 

[dudalb]

It's not often that we in California can laugh at another state for being way out there.

 

[Suddenly]

I can see him getting 20%-30% against Hillary in a two way race.

I could say the same about Carrot Top and Flavor Flav though....

 

[dudalb]

Let me know how sending people to die in Iraq for irrational reasons works out for you.

Paul might be right about Iraq but he is hopelessly wrong about so much else.
That is why the infatuation with Paul that some on the Left has early on was puzzling to me. It's Single Issue politics at it's most irrational.

 

[dudalb]

Maybe if Paul would have made SOME effort to distance himself from the wackjobs like Alex Jones he might have had a better chance.
Instead he embaraced them,and in Politics people do judge you by the company you keep.
Guilt by Association is wrong in judging whether somebody is gulty of a crime,but it's silly to pretend that the people you hang out with does not tell a lot about you .

 

[remirol]

The average donation per person for Ron Paul has been 100 dollars. Compare to the average donation for the other candidates.

I wonder how many of those donations _for each candidate_ came from people who could trivially afford the amount of their donation?

I wonder, too. I don't think that data is available, though.

I can't imagine that it would be. While I believe donors' names must be a matter of public record to satisfy various campaign finance regulations, their financial status or any other significant demographic information certainly should not be (and likely isn't).