Passing Peak Trump?

Dread Pirate Roberts said:
Can it also depend on the type of fear? Economic, like the Great Depression and Recession, people picked the left.
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Maybe. The Great Depression was kind of a big deal. Hence the name. Like I said, my sense of human nature is that things have to get pretty bad before people start thinking about restructuring society as a solution.

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There may be other factors, too. The New Deal was an extreme solution to an extreme situation. It wasn't the thin end of Communism's statist totalitarian wedge. Even if Americans today feel that some restructuring of the system is necessary, they might still reject Bernie's prescription. There's a difference between desperate measures for desperate times, and not letting a crisis go to waste when you can use it to advance your otherwise-unpalatable agenda.

Right? A politician might say, "this crisis calls for a little more socialism - even a lot more socialism! - than we are normally comfortable with. But I think we can all agree it's necessary."

Or a politician might say, "this crisis clearly shows why Communism is the better option. Revolution now!"
 
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ChristianProgressive said:
I think someone is shilling for the Centrist/Third Way-ers when everything we know about the US on an issue by issue basis shows the populace is highly progressive.
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I agree with you that per issue, most Americans are progressive. However, ther are a great many Americans that will vote for the Trump cult based on single issues. Some idiots would rather see the pandemic kill off 80% of America in order to ban abortion. (This is hyperbole, for you a-holes that want to call me out). The point still stands.
 
RecoveringYuppy said:
That's not what you lied about and you know it. You lied about a vast majority of people supporting the removal of Trump from office. That is not what the polls showed.

You're helping make the anti-Trump side vulnerable by being a pernicious liar.
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Are Democrats and Independents not people? The approval ratings for removal among both groups were HUGE, and they make up the bulk of the electorate.
 
ChristianProgressive said:
Are Democrats and Independents not people? The approval ratings for removal among both groups were HUGE, and they make up the bulk of the electorate.
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Tripling down on your lie?

If you're going to lie like that why didn't you just say people were unanimous on Trump's removal and then point out that you're only talking about people who support his removal?

You are now obviously a deliberate liar.

The truth, the unfortunate truth, is that only a slim majority supported removal. Another truth is that you are a pernicious liar.
 
ChristianProgressive said:
Some hinky games with approval ratings. Moscow Mitch routinely gets very low (sub 25%) ARs and keeps getting re-elected.

Then again, with GOP election rigging, all bets are off...
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Not necessarily any jiggery-pokery.

After all, if turnout is 50% then if all of the 25% of the people who approve of you vote for you, you'll still get a majority of the votes cast.

IMO the biggest skewing factor is the fact that people will vote for the party they support regardless of the candidate. Presumably a proportion of people who disapprove of Mitch McConnell are GOP voters who think he is far too moderate. Those people would never vote for the Democratic Party candidate and will therefore not vote, or hold their noses and vote the GOP ticket.
 
The Don said:
Not necessarily any jiggery-pokery.

After all, if turnout is 50% then if all of the 25% of the people who approve of you vote for you, you'll still get a majority of the votes cast.

IMO the biggest skewing factor is the fact that people will vote for the party they support regardless of the candidate. Presumably a proportion of people who disapprove of Mitch McConnell are GOP voters who think he is far too moderate. Those people would never vote for the Democratic Party candidate and will therefore not vote, or hold their noses and vote the GOP ticket.
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There's a growing polisci model that proposes there aren't very many swing voters; but rather, we experience turnout waves from different voter segments that do or don't get motivated this election vs the last one.
 
RecoveringYuppy said:
Tripling down on your lie?

If you're going to lie like that why didn't you just say people were unanimous on Trump's removal and then point out that you're only talking about people who support his removal?

You are now obviously a deliberate liar.

The truth, the unfortunate truth, is that only a slim majority supported removal. Another truth is that you are a pernicious liar.
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81% of Democrats favoring the president's removal and 84% of Republicans opposing it. Independents said Trump should be removed by a nearly 20-point margin, with 53% in favor of conviction and 34% opposed.
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Note that the source poll was a FOX poll and thus skewed pro-Trump.
Source
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/01/26/trump-impeachment-fox-news-poll/4581020002/

Game, set, match.
 
ChristianProgressive said:
Note that the source poll was a FOX poll and thus skewed pro-Trump.
Source
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/01/26/trump-impeachment-fox-news-poll/4581020002/

Game, set, match.
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But the quote that is relevant to your original claim is the first sentence of the article.

Half of registered voters and a majority of independents think the Senate should convict President Donald Trump in his impeachment trial and remove him from office, according to a Fox News poll released Sunday.
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And here is your original quote that you are running away from:

ChristianProgressive said:
NO ONE's support is that rock-solid. As recently as the eve of the Senate Removal vote a vast majority was polled as wanting Trump removed.

Someone's playing games with the numbers.
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Your claim WAS WRONG. And you now have multiple sources telling you it's wrong including the article you just cited to me. How stupid are you trying to make yourself look?
 
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RecoveringYuppy said:
But the quote that is relevant to your original claim is the first sentence of the article.

And here is your original quote that you are running away from:



Your claim WAS WRONG. And you now have multiple sources telling you it's wrong including the article you just cited to me. How stupid are you trying to make yourself look?
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THe raw aggregate is misleading, given that Dems and Indies make up the majority of voters. Repubs are a small minority (less than 1/3.
 
RecoveringYuppy said:
Please tell me you are stupidest person on the planet, because the only other alternative is that you have just hextupled down on lying.
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The last election had strong GOP turnout and the total number of cast votes was ~ 60% of the electorate. Since the Orange Mussolini got slightly less than half the votes, that makes the number of Republicans less than 30%.

Math is your friend.
.
 
blutoski said:
There's a growing polisci model that proposes there aren't very many swing voters; but rather, we experience turnout waves from different voter segments that do or don't get motivated this election vs the last one.
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It is certainly a possible hypothesis.
 
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