Trailing in Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina ... and Texas!
Passing Peak Trump?
- Thread starter hgc
- Start date
timhau
NWO Litter Technician
Fake news!! His lead is 60 points in internal polling (Ivanka, Jared, and Dumb & Dumberer vote Trump, only Melania votes for Sleepy Joe).
Crossbow
Seeking Honesty and Sanity
And just this morning there was some news that even a stupid, idiotic, lying POS like Donald Trump can understand:
Biden actually raised several millions of dollars more than did Trump in the last quarter.
Biden actually raised several millions of dollars more than did Trump in the last quarter.
timhau
NWO Litter Technician
Dollars, sure, but how many billions of rubles did he get?
Stacyhs
Penultimate Amazing
True. But Trump still has a lot more in total as he's been campaigning since inauguration day.
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
That's assuming Trump has actually kept the money, and not stolen it for other uses.
I would love to find out that Trump has been stealing from the RNC re-election funds to support his buisnesses, only to find that his companies ended up losing it all anways.
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
I heard a great quote on CNN this morning. A reporter was talking to 2016 Trump voters in a retirement community in Florida who planned to vote for Biden. Trump's attack on Biden for dementia fell pretty flat on these people. If you need to win Florida, don't attack someone for being old. Seems obvious but Trump and his Trumptrash aren't smart enough to get it.
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
I mentioned that in the Biden thread.
Polling shows that Trump has actually lost a significant amount of the senior vote. A demographic that was once reliably republican is now shifting to Biden.
Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk
Yes this is a gut feeling. No I am not certain of this. No I (obviously, by definition pretty much) can't show any data that support or proves it.
I still think the polls are wrong. Why?
Because I think Trump supporters like lying to Pollsters. It fits in with their core childish, trolling, anything to tweak the Libs base mentality.
Making it look like Trump is going to lose and then him winning again would break the Left in America so bad it would never recover and that's why I bet that's the outcome they are hoping for the most.
I've long argued that Trump fulfilled every campaign promise he seriously actually made 5 minutes after the news networks called the race for him on election night and Fox News ran the first footage of a librul college girl with tumblr hair and "Gender is Fluid" t-shirt ugly crying over Hillary losing that they could find to put on air.
The Trumpers got everything they wanted out of Trump that moment. And a second round of "Ohhhhh you're gonna win... LOL NO YOU'RE NOT" would be like having your first orgasm for the second time for them.
I still think the polls are wrong. Why?
Because I think Trump supporters like lying to Pollsters. It fits in with their core childish, trolling, anything to tweak the Libs base mentality.
Making it look like Trump is going to lose and then him winning again would break the Left in America so bad it would never recover and that's why I bet that's the outcome they are hoping for the most.
I've long argued that Trump fulfilled every campaign promise he seriously actually made 5 minutes after the news networks called the race for him on election night and Fox News ran the first footage of a librul college girl with tumblr hair and "Gender is Fluid" t-shirt ugly crying over Hillary losing that they could find to put on air.
The Trumpers got everything they wanted out of Trump that moment. And a second round of "Ohhhhh you're gonna win... LOL NO YOU'RE NOT" would be like having your first orgasm for the second time for them.
Dread Pirate Roberts
Critical Thinker
I read an article last week about this very thing:
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/504896-are-trump-supporters-punking-the-polls
The summary:
Venom
Philosopher
And just because some people who answered the polls think the country is "headed in the wrong direction" or even disapprove of Trump's handling of recent crises doesn't mean they won't vote for him when push comes to shove.
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
It is certainly possible that some Trump supporters would lie because they like Trolling pollsters. (Its also possible that some may lie because they are embarrassed to tell anyone they like Trump.)
But, I figure at most that might affect the results by a percent or 2. If Biden is leading by double digits it won't really change a potential win to a loss.
Remember, many of the same factors were in play in 2016... We knew Trump was a racist conman who liked to 'grab em by the pussy'. Trump's supporters were fine with that. Yet opinion polls ended up actually being pretty accurate at the end (off by only a couple of percentage points in the popular vote). They had similar reasons to lie in 2016, but it didn't really change how accurate the polls ended up being.
Yeah and we lost 2016.
Again I know how polling works and that 2016 wasn't a case of polling being "wrong" per se, but the whole "We're so ahead we don't have to worry" mentality was there in 2016 despite massive efforts from the Left to retcon it and the Left is trying really, really hard to talk themselves back into it right now.
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
Many of the seniors interviewed took a rather dim view of Trump not giving a **** about a global pandemic that kills them horribly.
Craig4
Penultimate Amazing
I really don't understand Trump's resilience in Ohio. All the other swing states make sense. There's no reason Trump should be tied with Biden there. The trade wars hurt Ohio a lot. The coal industry tanking and it's one of the worst states for opioid deaths. Trump should have a lot of vulnerabilities there.
timhau
NWO Litter Technician
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
Not sure how they calculated that. They gave 4 polls since April, and none of them had Biden above 2% (and Trump was winning in one). So they must be doing some sort of adjustment.
One one hand, while biden may lead by a few percentage points, its still within the margin of error, so statisitically its a tie.
On the other hand, Trump won Ohio by 8%, so for him to go from a comfortable win to a tie is pretty significant.
timhau
NWO Litter Technician
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
If the best poll has Biden winning by 1-2%, but they have the 'average' at 2.5%, then they are doing more than just adjusting it based on quality or sample size. Even if they give more weight to the polls that show biden at 2%, that is still below the 2.5% average.
I know they do other adjustments... I'm just not sure which ones were done here.
timhau
NWO Litter Technician
I assume they also adjust for pollster bias (as evidenced by their national polls) . Anyway, it was what, two polls from June, none from July or even late June? I'd say we have very little info to go on with Ohio.