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OOS Collapse Propagation Model

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The BBC wasn't the only one quick on the gun saying that WTC 7 collapsed. Dan Rather said it had collapsed or was going to collapse about an hour before it did and Tom Brokow said it had collapsed before the BBC did.

Fog of war and all that...

Why is evidence of a BBC reporter's mistake evidence of CD and not evidence of a BBC reporter's mistake.
I remember listening on TV that day that WTC7 was expected to collapse. Here's Tom Brokaw WTC7 " 40 story building that is in danger of collapsing..." (at 38:30) and another reporter, Pat Dawson "...building number 7 ... oh about a 20 story building ...there is some concern ... for the stability of building." (WTC7) (at 40:30.)


http://www.archive.org/details/nbc200109111609-1651
 
my local news reported that a small Cessna type aircraft had accidentally crashed into the Pentagon very early on that morning.
 
And what does Bazant say about that, hmm? Inside job, that's what.

I've read Bazant's papers. 'He can't "prove" allegations of CD have no merit.'- (Major Tom) about the Pentagon either, ergo Pentagon = CD.

Bazant also can't prove robots are not stealing my luggage.

twinstead
my local news reported that a small Cessna type aircraft had accidentally crashed into the Pentagon very early on that morning.

And where was the CEO of Cessna that day? Probably having breakfast with Silverstein. Or that BBC gal.
My cousin's wife said her brother was told by a caddy that Colin Powell occasionally played with Cessna's CEO at Augusta.
Subpoena I say.
 
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And where was the CEO of Cessna that day? Probably having breakfast with Silverstein. Or that BBC gal.

Hmmmmm. Silverstein and that BBC gal. How interesting. Well, THAT gives a whole new meaning to "pull it" now doesn't it?
 
bardamu said:
Eight pages on and still no acknowledgement that this statement is false:

4. Therefore, his papers rule out a controlled demolition.


I acknowledge that that statement of R.Mackey is inaccurate in the following respect:

It is not the papers themselves that rule out a controlled demolition; it is the facts, mathematics, and logic presented therein. If the papers did not exist, the laws of physics, the characteristics of the buildings, and the logical and mathematical implications of these would all be unchanged.

Also, the phrase "rule out" might be a bit misleading to some, who might read it as "rule out any possibility of" when it really means "rule out any need to consider as a hypothesis."

The second is actually a stronger statement, though it might not appear so. The reason is that in science, nothing is ever ruled out as a possibility except within the context of a specific body of theory (in this case, gravitation, Newtonian mechanics, and thermodynamics, the underpinnings of modern engineering).

Observations of phenomena "ruled out as a possibility" will overturn theories. For example, classical electrodynamics rules out any possibility of stable atoms with orbiting electrons. Therefore the discovery that atoms do have orbiting electrons overturned classical electrodynamics, replacing it with quantum theory.

On the other hand, when existing theory rules out the need to consider a hypothesis it means that no evidence that is inconsistent with the contrary hypothesis based on existing theory has been offered. Such a hypothesis cannot overturn existing theory.

The distinction is subtle, especially in the case at hand where the existing theory (classical mechanics, gravitation, and thermodynamics) is so well established within the domain of the phenomenon. But it lies at the heart of the common misunderstanding (even by many debunkers) of the nature of debunking. Debunking does not mean proving a claim impossible. It means showing that the evidence in support of the claim is inadequate to make the claim necessary to consider as a hypothesis.

For example, showing that an alleged UFO photograph strongly resembles a 1984 Plymouth hubcap tossed into the air does not prove that the photograph is not of an alien spaceship. What would prevent aliens who could build a spaceship from building one to look exactly like a 1984 Plymouth hubcap? Nothing!

What it does instead is show that the evidence is insufficient to even consider the alien spaceship hypothesis as a possibility. Even if there were aliens deliberately building spaceships to look like hubcaps, the photograph in question provides no useful evidence of that. The alien spaceship hypothesis is not disproved, but the photograph as evidence in support of that hypothesis is debunked.

Since debunking does not mean proving a claim impossible, failing to prove a claim impossible does not mean a failure of debunking. Some 9/11 conspiracy theorists seem to believe that as long as they can come up with some idea no matter how far fetched to preserve the mere possibility of their claim being true (e.g. silent explosives, vast cover-ups), the debunkers have failed. But that is not true, and actually the issue as far as debunking is concerned was settled years ago.

So, to clarify:

Bazant's papers (or rather, the reasoning contained therein) rule out any need to consider controlled demolition as a hypothesis (that is, a hypothesis that could overturn existing theory).

Other evidence, such as the lack of detonation sounds, lack of barotrauma injuries, lack of glass shrapnel injuries, and lack of observed blast damage or thermite residue on structural members in the debris, rule out controlled demolition as a possibility (that is, within the existing body of theory that underlies modern engineering).

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
IOther evidence, such as the lack of detonation sounds, lack of barotrauma injuries, lack of glass shrapnel injuries, and lack of observed blast damage or thermite residue on structural members in the debris, rule out controlled demolition as a possibility (that is, within the existing body of theory that underlies modern engineering).

Respectfully,
Myriad
Several of those could be caused by a fully natural collapse, so I don't really see why they are reasonable justification for exclusion of anything.

Have you also reason to rule out alternative MIHOP theories such as the ammonium perchlorate suggestion offered by Dr. G. ?

Thanks for clarifying your view on the Bazant et al statements, though your interpretation can only be viewed as your own personal viewpoint, unless Bazant et al decide to clarify their intent.
 
Thanks for clarifying your view on the Bazant et al statements, though your interpretation can only be viewed as your own personal viewpoint, unless Bazant et al decide to clarify their intent.

You're dense, dude.

What part of his statement where he says that cd is ruled out do you need an explanation for?
 
Thanks for clarifying your view on the Bazant et al statements, though your interpretation can only be viewed as your own personal viewpoint, unless Bazant et al decide to clarify their intent.


And thank you in turn for clarifying your own view on my post, though your interpretation can only be viewed as your own personal viewpoint, unless I decide to clarify my intent. (Which I see no need to do, as it appears my post makes its intended points quite clearly.)

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
...
Have you also reason to rule out alternative MIHOP theories such as the ammonium perchlorate suggestion offered by Dr. G. ?

...
LOL, that was a suggestion on what is better than thermite sprayed on like paint. AP was not used. Your delusions on 911 are not real, they are made up out of hearsay, lies and failed fantasy. There was no CD; because there was no evidence.

AP is ruled out by evidence. 19 terrorists did 911 with planes in NYC and Washington. They hit 75 percent of their targets, 911 truth hit zero percent of their targets.

CD is ruled out by evidence. Why does it take more than 8 years for 911 truth to drop dirt dumb ideas on 911?
 
And thank you in turn for clarifying your own view on my post, though your interpretation can only be viewed as your own personal viewpoint, unless I decide to clarify my intent. (Which I see no need to do, as it appears my post makes its intended points quite clearly.)

Respectfully,
Myriad

Your post were quite clear on the meaning of rule out. :)
 
I don't think the followers of Bazant will ever be convinced that there could be the slightest blemish within Bazant's reasoning, no matter how obviously the OOS study in the OP contradicts the divine doctrine of "crush down, then crush up".
Contradicts? In what way?

I think you're missing the point again and again.

From my reading of the thread, but apparently not from yours, Bazant's model is based on the most favorable case for collapse arrest, and it's in this case where the crush-down/crush-up happens. Since the real scenario is different to the model, then some crush-up is possible because it's not what Bazant modeled.

That's no contradiction; the existence of some crush-up would merely prove that the real collapse was not so favorable to collapse arrest as Bazant's model.

Now, does your paper prove, with engineering arguments, that Bazant's model is not the most favorable to collapse arrest? If that was case you would have something that could refute him.

And of course, the proposal of CD is artificial and fabricated. When a scientist uses an electroscope to measure charge, he doesn't rule out that a little bug is pushing the leaves apart at the time he touches the tip. The point about Mothra follows that same line of reasoning: there's as much evidence for CD as there is for Mothra, so if you want to include CD, you have no reason to dismiss Mothra because they both count with about the same amount of evidence. Or you can't rule out, for example, that the building was going to collapse anyway, because some key bolts failed at the same time by chance and that would have happened that same day either with or without the impact and subsequent fire, and the impact was a coincidence. Or you can't rule out... well, hopefully you will get the point this time.

And you may set up a scenario where it's possible that CD happened, and you may set up a scenario where it's possible that a bug was pushing the leaves of the electroscope, or that the bolts failed by chance all at the same time. But, in the lack of any evidence whatsoever, and given the overwhelming evidence that the planes crashed and caused a huge fire and that fire plus plane damage was able to bring the buildings down, the CD idea is just as credible as Sagan's dragon in the garage.

And no, a reporter's mistake is not evidence.
 
Greening's ammonium perchlorate suggestion?? Good grief, man, he wasn't serious about that! That whole post was a lesson in how to have done it without leaving behind a trace! With the meta-point being that conspiracy proposals fail to take take into account the actual details of the day. It was as much criticism as it was teaching.

Holy Jesus, that was a thought experiment, not a serious suggestion. He even pitched it hypothetically. My God, do you truthers grasp at any straw or what?
 
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Holy Jesus, that was a thought experiment, not a serious suggestion. He even pitched it hypothetically. My God, do you truthers grasp at any straw or what?

Do you have reading problems ?

I said...
Have you also reason to rule out alternative MIHOP theories such as the ammonium perchlorate suggestion offered by Dr. G. ?
...as Myraid's list of features he considers rule out MIHOP was very poor.

Clearly referenced as a suggestion, with full personal understanding that it would leave no distinct residue.

As Dr. G. is a member *back home*, I'll ask him about his full intent, as you've raised the point, but my intent was clear. It is a *potential* method that leaves no trace, regardless of whether you believe it was used or not. I'll post his response here for clarity.

My God, do you folks grasp at any straw that you think lets you *score points* against *twoofers* ?

Back to you debunker folks tip-toeing around actually being clear about Bazant et al, so as to not offend thy gods.
 
Do you have reading problems ?

I said...

...as Myraid's list of features he considers rule out MIHOP was very poor.

Clearly referenced as a suggestion, with full personal understanding that it would leave no distinct residue.

As Dr. G. is a member *back home*, I'll ask him about his full intent, as you've raised the point, but my intent was clear. It is a *potential* method that leaves no trace, regardless of whether you believe it was used or not. I'll post his response here for clarity.

My God, do you folks grasp at any straw that you think lets you *score points* against *twoofers* ?

Back to you debunker folks tip-toeing around actually being clear about Bazant et al, so as to not offend thy gods.

Look, buster, you said this:
Have you also reason to rule out alternative MIHOP theories such as the ammonium perchlorate suggestion offered by Dr. G. ?
Nowhere in that post did you state that you considered it hypothetical or "potential". On top of that, people in the past have indeed forwarded it as if Dr. Greening was seriously claiming it was what happened. So no, you were not clear, and I had reason to believe you were following in the steps of other fools in the past. The fact I responded the way I did is proof enough that you were not only not clear, but that you'd presented the suggestion as if you indeed had considered it a serious proposal. That's your phrasing, not my mistake. I don't have a reading problem, I just seem to have commited the error of taking a conspiracy advocate's words at face value.

On top of that, why do you feel the need to bug Dr. Greening about what he's clearly stated in the past?
Frank Greening said:
Interestingly, you all dodge the question: How was your (alleged) nanothermite actually used? And when I start to ponder this question I soon find myself thinking that the whole idea is indeed nonsense. I have, as a mental exercise, even proposed my own conspiracy theory - that the WTC thermal insulation was laced with ammonium perchlorate (AP) - and have provided as much or more evidence for this hypothesis as your team has for nanothermite.
Emphasis mine. He's come out and stated his intent. You still want to bug him about something he's been clear about?

There's zero need to "score points" against a truther; you all have not established any to begin with. And there's no need to "tiptoe" around Bazant et. al..It's you truthers who continually attribute things to it that were never intended. You are the ones who need to gain a better understanding of it. Why don't you ask Dr. Greening about Bazant instead, given that he's actually collaborated with him?
 
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