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Oklahoma Lottery Odds

Bindamel

Graduate Poster
Bindamel
Joined
Jul 27, 2004
Messages
1,512
From:

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/money/5533099/detail.html?rss=bos&psp=money

and many other sources, as well.

Mathematicians figure the odds of the same numbers coming up twice in a row are a million to one.
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Arrgh! No, NO, NO, NO, NO!

Why does this come up everytime a number comes up twice in a row in a lottery? Will they ever get it right?

...

I did check, and there are a few sources where it's correct, such as:

http://www.ktvotv3.com/Global/story.asp?S=4246125&nav=1LFs

Okay, I feel better now, carry on.
 
Bindamel said:
Why does this come up everytime a number comes up twice in a row in a lottery? Will they ever get it right?
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To be fair, given a lottery choosing randomly a number between 000 and 999 (inclusive), the chanec of getting a number twice in a row is 1/1000. However, the chances of getting (say) 175 two days in a row is actually "one in a million". On the other hand, the chance of getting 175 followed by 721 is also "one in a million".
 
Bindamel said:
From:

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/money/5533099/detail.html?rss=bos&psp=money

and many other sources, as well.



Arrgh! No, NO, NO, NO, NO!

Why does this come up everytime a number comes up twice in a row in a lottery? Will they ever get it right?

...

I did check, and there are a few sources where it's correct, such as:

http://www.ktvotv3.com/Global/story.asp?S=4246125&nav=1LFs

Okay, I feel better now, carry on.
Click to expand...
The odds of a predetermined number coming up twice in a row are one in a million[1]. But that's not what happened here. The odds of last night's number coming up tonight are one in a thousand, and they can expect it to happen about once every 3 years.

[1] it's one in a million and 999,999 to one.
 
Donald Rumsfeld is giving the President his daily briefing on Iraq.

He concludes by saying: "Yesterday, 3 Brazilian soldiers were killed."

"OH NO!" the President exclaims. "That's terrible!"

His staff sits stunned at this display of emotion, nervously watching as the President sits, head in hands.

Finally, President looks up and asks, "How many is a brazillion?"

--- G.
 
The response I received to my message informing them of this silliness:
You sent one of our site affiliates a note about our lottery story and
coincidence. One of the AP stories said a million to 1 and the other said a
thousand to 1. I'm trying to get confirmation from the lottery commission as
to what the odds were; however, your answer seemed pretty definite, making
me think you might know what you were talking about. :-)

Any chance you could explain how those odds are calculated???
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and my explanation:
If we were to PRESELECT a particular 3-digit lottery number on Monday, then the odds of getting that particular number on Tuesday would be 1000 to 1, while the odds of getting that particular number on both Tuesday and Wednesday would be 1000 x 1000 = 1,000,000 to 1.

But that is not what happened, of course. Any old random number was selected on Tuesday, then that number was matched on Wednesday. This is like the first case above, where Tuesday's number effectively preselects Wednesday's in order to get that same number twice in a row. Therefore the odds are merely 1000 to 1 and it should happen on average once every 3 years or so (if a number is selected every day).

Why any lottery commission would get excited about such an event I cannot imagine. Maybe they just wanted to present an air of concern so that people wouldn't worry about cheating or defective equipment. This is no more interesting than the number 911 coming up on 9/11.
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~~ Paul
 
tsg said:
Is that more or less than a bazillion?

And how does that compare to "two metric buttloads"?
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A jillion is less than a bazillion, but significantly more than two metric buttloads. There is debate on whether it is more than two metric pantloads, however.

~~ Paul
 
Paul C. Anagnostopoulos said:
and my explanation:
If we were to PRESELECT a particular 3-digit lottery number on Monday, then the odds of getting that particular number on Tuesday would be 1000 to 1, while the odds of getting that particular number on both Tuesday and Wednesday would be 1000 x 1000 = 1,000,000 to 1.

But that is not what happened, of course. Any old random number was selected on Tuesday, then that number was matched on Wednesday. This is like the first case above, where Tuesday's number effectively preselects Wednesday's in order to get that same number twice in a row. Therefore the odds are merely 1000 to 1 and it should happen on average once every 3 years or so (if a number is selected every day).

Why any lottery commission would get excited about such an event I cannot imagine. Maybe they just wanted to present an air of concern so that people wouldn't worry about cheating or defective equipment. This is no more interesting than the number 911 coming up on 9/11.
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Just to be picky, it's one in a million and one in a thousand respectively, or 999,999 to 1 and 999 to 1.

But other than that, your explanation is very good. It's the difference between one particular number winning twice (1/1,000,000) and any number winning twice (1000/1,000,000).
 
Morrison's Lament said:
Donald Rumsfeld is giving the President his daily briefing on Iraq.

He concludes by saying: "Yesterday, 3 Brazilian soldiers were killed."

"OH NO!" the President exclaims. "That's terrible!"

His staff sits stunned at this display of emotion, nervously watching as the President sits, head in hands.

Finally, President looks up and asks, "How many is a brazillion?"

--- G.
Click to expand...
I knew there was a reason I shouldn't drink tea at the computer. Now I remember what it was. I'll never clean that mess out of the keyboard... :D
 
I'm not surprised at all the confusion about the lottery. Since most of those who find the lottery important enough to talk about also play the lottery. The lottery is a tax on those who never learned math.......
 
sami_sdata said:
The lottery is a tax on those who never learned math.......
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I've heard that often and while I understand the sentiment behind it I don't like it as an aphorism. One of my biggest problems with the lottery is that it's not a tax at all but rather a form of entertainment that the government monopolizes. If it were a tax then the money would more likely be used well because although governments are notoriously inefficient, if they have to tax upset people to get the money they're less likely to waste it. OTOH when money is given to the government without them having to ask for it or justify how it's used, which is effectively what happens with lotteries, then the govenment is more likely to waste it.
 
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