We've all seen the looming catastrophe on InTrade, and the hecklers are growing ever bolder. It's no secret that Romney is losing it. But I was going to wait until after the first debate to make the call, until today's events.
First, there was Ann Romney's pleading for Republicans to stop being such meanies. This is not a dig against her, nor am I claiming her words were inherently foolhardy -- the campaign is grueling, they are taking flak from their own side, and it is costing them (and by inference, the GOP).
But, seriously, who thought this was going to help? And how? Did anyone here ever get the big kids to stop taking your lunch money by whining at them??
What she's done, apart from giving Romney's opposition yet another soundbite to play with, is to simultaneously acknowledge the power of disapproving pundits while refusing to offer them anything. A competent campaign has two basic strategies: Either plow on ahead with a stiff upper lip, dragging commentators in line as they grudgingly return to their own political interests; or else you respond to them by making changes, altering your message, altering your strategy in a way that either satisfies them or convinces them they're wrong. This approach does neither.
Even worse, this duty of whining about the poopyheads fell to Ann. Mitt apparently was the wrong guy for the job. It's almost inconceivable that the Romney campaign would trot out poor Ann to try the pity strategy, and yet they have. Unless, that is, her remarks were unscripted... in which case the campaign is devoid of discipline, and even greater yuks are in store.
Second, the one that tipped me over the edge, is Romney's decision to release his 2011 tax returns. Today. It's an obvious distraction, at least in theory, but as a distraction it fails no matter how you look at it.
On the one hand, by releasing his tax returns -- in a hurry, no less -- he's done nothing but puncture his self-inflated image as "Resolute." "No apologies," again, is his adopted, focus-group chosen mantra. How dare they attack honest (well, plausibly honest at least) wealth and success, the very essence of capitalism, I'll never cave to your demands -- oops, I just did. So this distraction fails to lead his opposition to any place advantageous to him.
But on the other hand, it's not much of a distraction at all. This only throws fuel on the fire. If he releases his 2011 returns, why not the rest? And the details! Why specifically engineer a tax return with a 14% tax bill? He didn't actually promise to do that, he just said that's where it fell in the past -- but he's now wrapped himself around his own axle.
Worst of all, think about what this tax return means. We know he could have paid a quarter million dollars less if he wanted. (We also know full well he'll file a revision as soon as the election is over and recover that quarter megabuck, but that's another story.) Why doesn't matter, except that he did it to secure some kind of advantage. Which means that he's just paid $250,000 that he didn't have to because he's afraid of what someone else will say.
This is the biggest and most expensive single pander I have ever seen. And it's not even a good one. He has been so outmaneuvered that he is literally jumping on command, whether it comes from his own side or from the opposition.
Were I Romney, I would have toughed out both situations. I would NEVER beg for clemency from GOP-leaning media types, and having planted my foot once on tax returns would simply hold to that course. Instead I'd be hard at work right now coming up with a fresh narrative. Gaining the initiative is essential. A well-crafted strategy could silence of distract both the pundits in his own party and the skeptics gradually paper-cutting him to death.
But that's not what he did. I don't think he can. Hence, he's toast.
Anyone think I've missed something?
First, there was Ann Romney's pleading for Republicans to stop being such meanies. This is not a dig against her, nor am I claiming her words were inherently foolhardy -- the campaign is grueling, they are taking flak from their own side, and it is costing them (and by inference, the GOP).
But, seriously, who thought this was going to help? And how? Did anyone here ever get the big kids to stop taking your lunch money by whining at them??
What she's done, apart from giving Romney's opposition yet another soundbite to play with, is to simultaneously acknowledge the power of disapproving pundits while refusing to offer them anything. A competent campaign has two basic strategies: Either plow on ahead with a stiff upper lip, dragging commentators in line as they grudgingly return to their own political interests; or else you respond to them by making changes, altering your message, altering your strategy in a way that either satisfies them or convinces them they're wrong. This approach does neither.
Even worse, this duty of whining about the poopyheads fell to Ann. Mitt apparently was the wrong guy for the job. It's almost inconceivable that the Romney campaign would trot out poor Ann to try the pity strategy, and yet they have. Unless, that is, her remarks were unscripted... in which case the campaign is devoid of discipline, and even greater yuks are in store.
Second, the one that tipped me over the edge, is Romney's decision to release his 2011 tax returns. Today. It's an obvious distraction, at least in theory, but as a distraction it fails no matter how you look at it.
On the one hand, by releasing his tax returns -- in a hurry, no less -- he's done nothing but puncture his self-inflated image as "Resolute." "No apologies," again, is his adopted, focus-group chosen mantra. How dare they attack honest (well, plausibly honest at least) wealth and success, the very essence of capitalism, I'll never cave to your demands -- oops, I just did. So this distraction fails to lead his opposition to any place advantageous to him.
But on the other hand, it's not much of a distraction at all. This only throws fuel on the fire. If he releases his 2011 returns, why not the rest? And the details! Why specifically engineer a tax return with a 14% tax bill? He didn't actually promise to do that, he just said that's where it fell in the past -- but he's now wrapped himself around his own axle.
Worst of all, think about what this tax return means. We know he could have paid a quarter million dollars less if he wanted. (We also know full well he'll file a revision as soon as the election is over and recover that quarter megabuck, but that's another story.) Why doesn't matter, except that he did it to secure some kind of advantage. Which means that he's just paid $250,000 that he didn't have to because he's afraid of what someone else will say.
This is the biggest and most expensive single pander I have ever seen. And it's not even a good one. He has been so outmaneuvered that he is literally jumping on command, whether it comes from his own side or from the opposition.
Were I Romney, I would have toughed out both situations. I would NEVER beg for clemency from GOP-leaning media types, and having planted my foot once on tax returns would simply hold to that course. Instead I'd be hard at work right now coming up with a fresh narrative. Gaining the initiative is essential. A well-crafted strategy could silence of distract both the pundits in his own party and the skeptics gradually paper-cutting him to death.
But that's not what he did. I don't think he can. Hence, he's toast.
Anyone think I've missed something?
