Obama's premature victory dance à la Rove

[Richard Masters]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-obama_dorning_7.26jul27,0,3777238.story

Obama's strength is in diplomacy. As much as I'd love for him to be closer to the libertarian area of the spectrum, he is clearly better for the United States in an environment of mistrust and this, "our enemies are clearly terrorists; and anyone who doesn't agree is a terrorist," mindset cultivated by the Bush administration.

In my opinion, Obama should go for a premature victory dance, maybe even à la Rove.

The right regards McCain as liberal, while the left regards McCain as an idiot.
If voters vote along party lines, the election is close. If they vote according to ideology, the Republicans have no electable candidates.

McCain's hardly defensible positions on the war and his inane political commentary (100 years in Iraq, pretending he knows anything about the economy) are not going to win him any points. Walking around Iraq covered from head to toe with an entourage of confused and exhausted soldiers in the safest and best protected parts of Iraq won't do anything for him either.

 

[Iamme]

Are your assumptions based on voters being smart and educated?
On talk radio and tv they are saying that public photo-ops are everything. People remember what they visually see, and forget what was actually said.

 

[fuelair]

No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.
-- H. L. Mencken

 

[Richard Masters]

Are your assumptions based on voters being smart and educated?
On talk radio and tv they are saying that public photo-ops are everything. People remember what they visually see, and forget what was actually said.

Yeah, I should clarify.

I think people will vote along party lines, regardless of what they see.

But if they were smart and educated, in general they'd prefer Obama over McCain, because McCain's photo ops are ridiculously artificial. Not to mention McCain hasn't been able to defend his positions with logic, instead of appeals to "honor".

 

[ProbeX]

Richard, I agree with you for the most part. But even if the Pubs vote along party lines, McCain could still lose decisively because there are so many more Dems than Pubs in this election cycle. And from most polls, most Dems support Obama; even the vast majority of Clintonites. The Indies are more for Obama too.

Speaking of polls, I noticed one of the polls being cited often by the MSM (the one that presently puts McCain slightly behind Obama), is managed by Rasmussen. They conduct their polls via landline phones, which is problematic, because most young people use cells. Also, they are run chiefly during evening hours, when younger people tend to be out of the house. Conclusion: The polling results are likely inaccurate, failing to reveal the higher values for Obama.

 

[Upchurch]

In my opinion, Obama should go for a premature victory dance, maybe even à la Rove.

Could you clarify this part?

 

[Richard Masters]

Could you clarify this part?

He should do an inane gratuitous dance, like Rove did at one of the White House correspondent dinners. The more unapologetic, the better.

 

[Richard Masters]

Richard, I agree with you for the most part. But even if the Pubs vote along party lines, McCain could still lose decisively because there are so many more Dems than Pubs in this election cycle. And from most polls, most Dems support Obama; even the vast majority of Clintonites. The Indies are more for Obama too.

Speaking of polls, I noticed one of the polls being cited often by the MSM (the one that presently puts McCain slightly behind Obama), is managed by Rasmussen. They conduct their polls via landline phones, which is problematic, because most young people use cells. Also, they are run chiefly during evening hours, when younger people tend to be out of the house. Conclusion: The polling results are likely inaccurate, failing to reveal the higher values for Obama.

Assuming the polling results are inaccurate only for that reason, it gives Obama about a 5 point lead. But since the popular vote doesn't count in the United States, it'll be up to states like Virginia.

Sadly, McCain can still pull a very close victory if he courts evangelicals. Which means Obama would have to as well.

Linky

 

[ProbeX]

Are your assumptions based on voters being smart and educated?
On talk radio and tv they are saying that public photo-ops are everything. People remember what they visually see, and forget what was actually said.

... which is unfortunate. McCain looks confused and broken. Obama looks sharp, attractive and ready.

Also, the visuals will align with the aural with the up-n-coming debates. God help the Pubs this year because they don't stand a rotten shot in Hell.

 

[ProbeX]

Assuming the polling results are inaccurate only for that reason, it gives Obama about a 5 point lead. But since the popular vote doesn't count in the United States, it'll be up to states like Virginia.

Sadly, McCain can still pull a very close victory if he courts evangelicals. Which means Obama would have to as well.

Linky

This is a tenuous argument because a gain with evangicals could result in a loss of female voters from all three parties. McCain, who isn't popular with evangicals, would probably have to be more vocal about his anti-abortion and anti-gay stance. That could lose him many votes in an election cycle where most people in the country are liberal on both of these issues.

 

[Richard Masters]

This is a tenuous argument because a gain with evangicals could result in a loss of female voters from all three parties. McCain, who isn't popular with evangicals, would probably have to be more vocal about his anti-abortion and anti-gay stance. That could lose him many votes in an election cycle where most people in the country are liberal on both of these issues.

He is already ahead with white religious voters.

 

[Richard Masters]

... which is unfortunate. McCain looks confused and broken. Obama looks sharp, attractive and ready.

Also, the visuals will align with the aural with the up-n-coming debates. God help the Pubs this year because they don't stand a rotten shot in Hell.

The good news is McCain *is* confused and broken.

Even if God existed, I'm not sure why he'd want to help the Republicans.

 

[ProbeX]

He is already ahead with white religious voters.

True. But that doesn't change the fact that if McCain would like to boost his numbers further (theoretically moving him toward a tipping point in the election), he'd likely have to take a step away from moderates and toward the Religious Right and compromise his standing with other voter blocs.

 

[ProbeX]

Even if God existed, I'm not sure why he'd want to help the Republicans.

Heh ... an agnostic "Amen" to that.

 

[Drewbot]

I think a majority of fly-over country people are seeing thru the OBAMANIA that they witness ad nauseum on the news networks. They see the $1000 as a gimmick, they see his utopian plans as increased taxes, They see that he did nothing to change Chicago politics, (and that is probably more corrupt than Washington). McCain is going to win this election if tactically he scares voters by telling them OBAMA is going to put our country into a 1930 type depression.

 

[ProbeX]

??? ... McCain is a confused, muddled mess. That sobering fact will become abundantly clear when they start debating.

 

[Upchurch]

He should do an inane gratuitous dance, like Rove did at one of the White House correspondent dinners.

You mean that horrible rap thing he and a few others did?

 

[technoextreme]

You mean that horrible rap thing he and a few others did?

All ready created:

 

[Richard Masters]

You mean that horrible rap thing he and a few others did?

Yes.

 

[Upchurch]

Oh, but he can do so much better than that. Why dance like an overweight balding white man if you don't have to?

(Speaking as an overweight balding white man, I solve the problem by not dancing at all.)