Obamacare Means 1/3 Fewer MDs

[thaiboxerken]

Rush Limbaugh has backed out of his promise to move to Costa Rica, saying that what he meant was that he'd go to Costa Rica for his health care.

Which is a silly thing.

 

[Upchurch]

Rush Limbaugh has backed out of his promise to move to Costa Rica, saying that what he meant was that he'd go to Costa Rica for his health care.

...because they have universal health care?

 

[thaiboxerken]

That's why I said it's silly.

 

[willhaven]

So, any count on how many doctors have quit so far?

Considering that the poll was conducted assuming a public option was in the bill, I figure zero doctors have quit so far.

Those poor doctors and insurance companies. Why won't anybody think of them?!

 

[Neally]

Where's the original study, try 6? Does it not exist?

All the details available as to the methodology and results has been linked to. Kill the messenger since you don't like the message. Demand another study like the truthers. Whatever.

Incidentally, while we're waiting, will there be a point where we can declare the bill "implemented" and take a head count of doctors, or will there always be some obscure clause to point to where you could say "Well they didn't do X so the bill isn't fully implemented yet"?

It gets incrementally implemented over 10 years. Check back in 2020 and see how your wait times are doing compared to today. If the MD's stick to their responses, it will be longer.

 

[joobz]

It gets incrementally implemented over 10 years. Check back in 2020 and see how your wait times are doing compared to today. If the MD's stick to their responses, it will be longer.

And of course, in 2020, if wait lines don't increase (wait times already exist for some), and health care is affordable, can I expect your apology?

 

[Upchurch]

Actually, when you put it that way, I wouldn't be overly surprised if a decent number of those currently employed doctors did retire over the next decade.

Lame.

 

[joobz]

Actually, when you put it that way, I wouldn't be overly surprised if a decent number of those currently employed doctors did retire over the next decade.

Lame.

Like I said on page 1:

I can see some of the doctor's who are close to retirement leaving earlier and making a big show of it as protest. Unless, of course, their retirement portfolio was a bit too heavy in real estate over the past couple years.

 

[Upchurch]

Like I said on page 1:

Yeah, but you extend that from a couple of years to a decade, that possibility goes way up.

 

[joobz]

Yeah, but you extend that from a couple of years to a decade, that possibility goes way up.

exactly. The funny thing is, they would be replaced by new doctors already accustomed to the changes in the healthcare system. So, it's still a net gain.

 

[Leif Roar]

Yeah, but you extend that from a couple of years to a decade, that possibility goes way up.

The average career of a doctor is what? Forty, forty-five years? Out of a random selection of doctors, you'd expect 20+% of them to see the (natural) end of their career in the next decade.

 

[Upchurch]

The average career of a doctor is what? Forty, forty-five years? Out of a random selection of doctors, you'd expect 20+% of them to see the (natural) end of their career in the next decade.

I have no data to support this, but isn't the medical community skewed older? Aren't we having trouble getting young people to go into medicine?

I can't find anything with a quick Google search.

 

[ponderingturtle]

I have no data to support this, but isn't the medical community skewed older? Aren't we having trouble getting young people to go into medicine?

I can't find anything with a quick Google search.

The only area I have heard there are problems getting people are in primary care. And there are issues that need to be resolved around primary care vs specialists.

 

[Upchurch]

The only area I have heard there are problems getting people are in primary care. And there are issues that need to be resolved around primary care vs specialists.

May be. I'm pulling this from the corners of my memory and may not be true. Since I can't support it, forget I mentioned it.

 

[Leif Roar]

May be. I'm pulling this from the corners of my memory and may not be true. Since I can't support it, forget I mentioned it.

I found this document, about physicians in Minnesota (so, rather limited, and I don't know how well it would translate to nationwide) It claims that "Overall, 19 percent of physicians active in 2008 said they expected to stop practicing within five years. More than 40 percent expect to leave the profession within 10 years."

 

[Neally]

And of course, in 2020, if wait lines don't increase (wait times already exist for some), and health care is affordable, can I expect your apology?

Apologize for what? I linked a survey showing a certain % of MDs would quit practicing if Obamacare passed. If they did what they said, there would be a shortage and longer wait times. If they don't, then they either lied or changed their mind.

Actually, when you put it that way, I wouldn't be overly surprised if a decent number of those currently employed doctors did retire over the next decade. Lame.

Yes, MD's are retiring all the time. Asking for a count as to how many have followed through 2 days after it was signed is what's lame. The survey didn't drill down to determine of the ones that said they would leave, exactly when they would leave and they probably wouldn't have any concrete idea on a time line anyway. Even those that were seriously committed to leaving wouldn't lock the door the next day and walk. They'd likely take several months to transition out.

It will take many years to see how the bill and future tweaks to it affect health care.

 

[joobz]

Apologize for what?

For being stupidly wrong.

 

[GreyICE]

All the details available as to the methodology and results has been linked to. Kill the messenger since you don't like the message. Demand another study like the truthers. Whatever.

The methodology is bullcrap, for the reasons I have outlined. Keep comparing me to the truthers, but there is a difference between being skeptical when:

• You have multiple studies, footage, and evidence reviewed by hundreds or thousands of individuals
• You have one set of really unusual results with crappy methodology, no explanation of anything, and no paper or supporting evidence

You would have me believe the UFOites because "look, they have one picture! And an anecdote! Picture AND Anecdote! Isn't that enough evidence, unless you're a truther or something?"

Yeah. So sayeth you.

It gets incrementally implemented over 10 years. Check back in 2020 and see how your wait times are doing compared to today. If the MD's stick to their responses, it will be longer.

Oh, so we can't fact check your crappy study for a decade?

You have no link to the paper, no link to the methodology, no link to the specific adjustments, no link to how their survey population compares to the general population, no link to how they adjusted for nonrespondants (which was high), and absolutely no supporting evidence for any claim you have made here.

In short, you can spew insults and tell lies, but you cannot support them with facts and logic. As you would say, like a truther.

 

[Upchurch]

Yes, MD's are retiring all the time. ...The survey didn't drill down to determine of the ones that said they would leave, exactly when they would leave and they probably wouldn't have any concrete idea on a time line anyway. Even those that were seriously committed to leaving wouldn't lock the door the next day and walk. They'd likely take several months to transition out.

So, the claim that "Obamacare Means 1/3 Fewer MDs" is both unsupported and un-provable. It's basically useless.

Asking for a count as to how many have followed through 2 days after it was signed is what's lame.

I was making a point.

 

[Neally]

So, the claim that "Obamacare Means 1/3 Fewer MDs" is both unsupported and un-provable. It's basically useless.

Time will tell.

I was making a point.

That being?