Nuclear Energy - I need to vent/rant

With supercapacitors, though... who knows? Quick refills, lots of storage capacity, long lifespan. If Schneibster is correct, we're already using them in the world. We can't stick around the way we are forever; if there is one consistent thing about technology, it's that it never stays the same... nor should it.
 
I want to return to the previous point that Kevin_Lowe and Luddite both made, about the "hidden costs" of Nuclear Power Plants. I showed someone that was knowledgeable on the subject in the BAUT Forum (777_geek) this thread, and he had this to say:



I then asked if I had his permission to post this, and he brought up that people here would probably like some other source.

http://www.externe.info/

Have fun. ;)
I've seen no indication that spent fuel handling and storage costs are included in the costs of nuclear power anywhere. Is there any evidence for this?

Glenn sent links that demonstrated that decommissioning costs are paid by the operators in the US during the lifetime of the plant. However the decommissioning itself will be paid by governments. I sent articles which showed that the estimated costs of decommissioning Sellafield in Britain had to be revised upwards 3 times within a single year. So it's not clear that decommissioning fees estimated when the plant is built will prove to be enough at the time it is decommissioned. Britain and Canada leave decommissioning to the government, and it is generally not included in the costs of nuclear power unless explicitly stated. Given the limited experience with decommissioning large nuclear plants, any estimate will be imprecise. Estimates by nuclear agencies can be expected to be low, while those of environmental groups are likely to be high.

The ExternE site you sent the link for is bizarre. It certainly doesn't mention spent fuel handling, storage or decommissioning. Nor does it include government research, construction or other subsidies. It limits itself to health and environmental damages. More significantly, it only assesses health risks from fossil pollutants, none from radiation. Now the risks may be low, but there are undoubtedly radiation risks from nuclear generation. It may even be true that there's more in your coffee, but the fact of the matter is that it's not assessed in this document at all. Here's what they assess:

http://www.externe.info/

In Canada, the CANDUs release enormous amounts of tritium. So Canadian standards for tritium in water are an order of magnitude greater than those permitted in Europe, even though this is one of the wettest parts of the world. It's a problem because it's persistent. The Great Lakes only turn over 1% of their water annually.

So while I expect to see that these risks are much lower than the risks from coal generation, the fact is that they're not assessed at all. They aren't even mentioned.

Here's the Nuclear Energy Agency's assessment of the external costs of nuclear power.

http://www.nea.fr/html/ndd/reports/2003/nea4372-generation.pdf

It's conclusion is:

Aspects of nuclear energy that often are suggested to entail external costs
include: future financial liabilities arising from decommissioning and dismantling
of nuclear facilities, health and environmental impacts of radioactivity
releases in routine operation, radioactive waste disposal and effects of severe
accidents. It has to be acknowledged that those aspects could become external
costs if adequate funds for discharging them would not be established on a
timely basis, guaranteed through reliable and independent bodies, and included
in the costs (and the market price) of nuclear-generated electricity. However, a
number of mechanisms have been established to provide such funds, thereby
largely internalising these potential externalities, as highlighted in the following
paragraphs.

This leaves me very confused. It claims that radioactive waste disposal, decommissioning and accident insurance are all covered by the nuclear industry. It does mention that the accidental liability coverage is limited but doesn't mention just how limited it is (less than 10% or 1% for Canada in the case of a major accident).

They imply that all OECD countries have mechanisms in place to cover waste disposal and decommissioning.

It has been estimated that decommissioning costs represent some 10 to
15% of overnight capital costs of nuclear power plants. Since decommissioning
activities and expenses occur after the plant has stopped producing electricity,
decommissioning funds are accumulated, as a part of the electricity price, while
the plant is in operation, according to the “Polluter Pays Principle”. In OECD
countries a wide variety of mechanisms and schemes are in place for ensuring
that decommissioning costs are comprehensively estimated and that the
necessary funds are accumulated and securely reserved, to be made available
when needed.

Since I had already looked this up for Canada and Britain and knew they didn't collect decommissioning costs from the power plant, this had me confused. I looked up the NEA's own detailed report about Canada. Nowhere in the discussion about decommissioning does it say that these are covered by the operator:

http://www.nea.fr/html/rwm/wpdd/canada.pdf

So going back to what they said, they didn't actually say it was always covered. They said it might be an externality if it wasn't covered, said it was often covered, and then made a blanket statement about OECD countries that implied that it was always covered in OECD countries.

I'm disappointed. This is deceptive writing designed to confuse people who don't have the time to double-check.

The same kind of "many countries" so "the cost is already internalized" without specifics applies to the discussion of spent fuel storage.

I assure you spent fuel storage costs are not internalized in Canada. Furthermore, we have no idea what we're going to do with it anyway, so how would we assess the costs?. A friend of mine who is an environmental lawyer summarized the decisions the AECL has made so far as "Dig a big hole and seal it, but not so well that you couldn't recover the waste if you wanted to go back and get it later". She says that the only two options we have definitively eliminated are shooting it into space or pitching it into the ocean depths. 30 years of thought went into that decision.

The NEA document then goes on to tackle the issue of radiation effects and state that this is addressed in the ExternE report. They make extensive reference to it. It's not, as I said. So what am I to make of this? Is there an updated ExternE document somewhere? I found a bunch of old ExternE sites still on the web stating that the information was no longer being updated, so maybe the link you sent is another of these?

The NEA document does not mention at all R&D or any direct government subsidies, past or present.

So does the NEA come up in the end with a cost for externalities? Nope. It seems to be a lot of handwaving saying "yeah, yeah, it's all covered", but a closer look says well, not really. This is frustrating.

Just found this anti-nuclear site which summarizes unaccounted costs:

http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/630-31/main.php

Can they be trusted? Like I said, the debate is very polarized. Hard to find a middle ground.
 
One reason that the true cost is hard to discover, is that Nuclear Power Plants were used to create the material for Nuclear weapons. It was the main reason so many expensive power plants were built.

In a great irony, much of the fuel being used for power generation now comes from nuclear warheads.
 
The European Environment Agency has this to say about the ExternE assessment:

Nuclear external costs are in the range 0.2-0.4 cEUR/kW. However, these external costs factors have to be treated with caution, as they reflect to a large extent the small amount of emissions of CO2 and air pollutants, and the low risk of accidents. The methodology to evaluate the impacts due to accidents is risk-based. Risk can be broadly defined as the probability of accident multiplied by its consequences. A low probability of an accident would therefore result in a low external cost. However, it would seem that in cases where risks have a very high damage but a low probability, the risk assessment of the public is not proportional to the risk. ExternE concludes that quantification of this risk has not been successful but that research is clearly needed to estimate the external-cost factors from nuclear energy production.

http://themes.eea.europa.eu/Sectors_and_activities/energy/indicators/EN35,2007.04

That's pretty close to my assessment. Though I would specify what they didn't include: R&D susbsidies, direct subsidies, decommissioning, insurance, waste removal and storage, risk from radiation exposure as well as cost of major accidents. It may well be that in some cases, some of these are included in the costs. But there are definitely cases where they are not.
 
This, surprisingly, comes from a pro-nuclear source, Nuclear Engineering International. It's an article that tackles the fact that financing for new nuclear plants has been very unsuccessful. Most of the article talks about how these challenges can be addressed through clearer regulations, but there are these revealing tidbits:

It is clear that financing new nuclear build in the financial markets will prove very challenging. Nuclear has a bad reputation there, with memories of the cost overruns of plants in the 1970s and 1980s still strong, with the attendant power utility ‘stranded costs’ – those investment costs never likely to be repaid by future electricity sales.

Without being able to demonstrate a workable solution to the waste issue, it will be difficult to build new nuclear plants.

as the revenue from billions of kWh of electricity is the only outside funding coming into the nuclear industry (a point often forgotten by those engaged in uranium production and other fuel cycle activities), the shape of power markets, the contracting and other market mechanisms, are very important. Investors have to take major risks with selling nuclear power at good prices for many years in the future, to recoup the heavy initial plant investment costs.

Understanding all the risks and allocating them to their correct location is clearly something that financiers find very difficult.
 
One reason that the true cost is hard to discover, is that Nuclear Power Plants were used to create the material for Nuclear weapons. It was the main reason so many expensive power plants were built.

In a great irony, much of the fuel being used for power generation now comes from nuclear warheads.

Commercial light water reactors in the US were not used for plutonium production and are essentially useless for that purpose. Plutonium was made at the Hanford washington site--it was a government site. Most of the reactors were pu production only. The exception was the N reactor which produced some electricity. Some pu was also made at the savannah river site--but the reactors didn't produce electrical power. Savannah river was also a govt. site.

There are just a few plants in the US that can handle pu from weapons due to the increased reactivity of MOX fuels. However, I am not aware of any plants in the US that are fueled with any significant portion of MOX combined with regular uranium fuel. Duke power had a pilot program to do a few test assemblies...but I don't know if it was ever done.

glenn
 
This, surprisingly, comes from a pro-nuclear source, Nuclear Engineering International. It's an article that tackles the fact that financing for new nuclear plants has been very unsuccessful. Most of the article talks about how these challenges can be addressed through clearer regulations, but there are these revealing tidbits:

All 100% true..and one of the major reasons the industry died in the US and why the govt. put some subsidies into the 2005 energy bill that passed.

It will be a rough start in the US. The real key will be clear licensing requirements and keeping the lunatic fringe out of the mix.

glenn
 
Commercial light water reactors in the US were not used for plutonium production and are essentially useless for that purpose.

I wasn't talking about just the US, lots of other countries built nuclear power plants, and lots of nuclear bombs.
 
But speaking of those weapon reactors...

Most of Hanford's reactors were shut down in the 1960s but nuclear waste still remains at the site. Parts of the 560 square mile (1,450 km²) site are highly contaminated. Examples of the scale of the problem are:

* Some 54 million U.S. gallons (204,000 m³) of radioactive liquid and sludge is stored in 177 underground tanks of which about a third were reported as leaking in 2001.

* Nearby aquifers were not protected and contain an estimated 270 billion gallons of contaminated ground water.

* More than 40 billion gallons (151 million m³) of contaminated water were dumped directly onto the soil and there have been radioactive leaks from storage ponds and tanks

* The site includes 25 million cubic feet of solid radioactive waste.
Wolman, David. "Fission Trip", Wired Magazine, April 2007, p. 78

You might think getting rid of nuclear waste is a real problem. No wonder nobody wants to keep building them in the US.
http://www.populist.com/99.12.krebs.blob.html
 
This 2004 paper on energy subsidies by the European Environment Agency mentions the EU commitment to 22% electricity from renewable sources by 2010 and the goal of 20% of all energy use from renewables by 2020. They state that these measures are achievable but are unlikely under the current policy framework.

They address the same issues as the Nuclear Engineering article above from a different angle, but it's actually clear that the issues are the same:

Since the 1990s, the energy sector in western Europe (particularly the electricity sector) has undergone significant liberalisation and privatisation, resulting in declining and more volatile (fluctuating) electricity prices. Existing fossil fuel and nuclear generators, established with public money and benefiting from depreciated assets, have lower marginal costs than new renewable technologies and are better able to manage the downward price pressures. To some extent, electricity prices in the EU 15 reflect only the marginal costs of production from existing capacity and do not include a contribution to the capital cost of the capacity used (or to the capacity that will be needed to replace this when it is retired). This fact and volatile energy prices have created barriers to private investment in new capacity, resulting in falling reserve margins in a number of countries compared with those present in the 1990s as the replacement of old capacity lags behind retirement.

http://reports.eea.europa.eu/technical_report_2004_1/en/Energy_FINAL_web.pdf

There is a trend in these articles that ties in with what the Rocky Mountain Institute is saying and what Glenn asserts.

1. Power plants used to be built more by governments who took all the risks.
2. Energy markets are being liberalised.
3. Financiers are wary of taking risks on long and large projects of any kind.
4. This opens the door for efficiency to meet new demand (I think especially when efficiencies are encouraged with public money).
5. Penetration by micro-generation is impeded by the existence of power plants built prior to market liberalization.
6. Micro-generation still comes out ahead for rapidly producing small incremental increases in generation. Large power plants are at a disadvantage.
7. Nuclear is particularly vulnerable because of its history of cost overruns and early closures - financiers see it as risky.
8. Nuclear has additional concerns about the lack of coherent plans for permanent waste disposal.
9. Nuclear has benefited from very high subsidies in the past.
10. Subsidies for renewables are higher today.
11. Subsidies for fossil fuels remain high.

The bit about historic subsidies is the conclusion from a 2000 US Goldberg study that this paper quotes. It compares the development periods for nuclear and wind, and puts nuclear subsidies at US$15.3/kWh and wind at US$0.46/kWh during their respective development periods.

For the year 2001, excluding externalities, the highest subsidies were for solid fuel at 13 billion euros, followed by oil and gas at 8.7 billion euros. Renewables came in at 5.3 billion euros with nuclear now lowest at 2.2.

I approve of higher subsidies for renewables. I can't agree with higher subsidies for fossil fuels.

If you include externalities, add 25.6-46.2 billion euros annually for solid fuels, 12-21.4 for oil and gas, 2.7 for nuclear and 2.0-2.7 for renewables.

This has gotta change.
 
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Here's a link to the Goldberg study mentioned above:

http://www.unplugsalem.org/FES.htm

It also compares subsidies for solar, which are intermediate between nuclear and wind. If you forget the subsidy per kilowatt hour produced and just consider the dollar value of the subsidy, it's even more dramatic:

"Nukes received much higher levels of government support per kilowatt-hour when they first started than either wind or solar power. And subsidies heaped on nuclear power have not been cheap. Since 1947, cumulative subsidies to nuclear power had an equivalent cost of $1,411 [1998 dollars] per U.S. household, compared to $11 for wind, for example."
 
Perhaps, but I don't like to assume that some technology will exist soon in order to make an argument for a particular course of action.
Well, it's pretty far along, Belz. A thin-film expert from the hard disk industry has a patent on the technology, and has acquired funding from Kleiner, Perkins, Caulfield and Byers; you might want to check them out, they've been involved in most of the high-tech IPOs of the last two decades; most of their clients are household names, like Sun, AOL, LSI Logic, Genentech, Netscape, Google, and so on. The guy is setting up a production line down in Texas; the name of the company is EEStor. They've got a contract to provide power storage units for Zenn Motor in Canada, to make electric cars. Zenn is owned by Feel Good Cars, and they're in for a couple million bucks. They reportedly remain on track to begin producing the power units this year; CNN did a story on them in September. As far as I know, the smart money don't go throwing several million bucks around on things that are too awfully speculative, especially in the current investment climate.
 
This 2004 paper on energy subsidies by the European Environment Agency mentions the EU commitment to 22% electricity from renewable sources by 2010 and the goal of 20% of all energy use from renewables by 2020. They state that these measures are achievable but are unlikely under the current policy framework.

They address the same issues as the Nuclear Engineering article above from a different angle, but it's actually clear that the issues are the same:



http://reports.eea.europa.eu/technical_report_2004_1/en/Energy_FINAL_web.pdf

There is a trend in these articles that ties in with what the Rocky Mountain Institute is saying and what Glenn asserts.

1. Power plants used to be built more by governments who took all the risks.
2. Energy markets are being liberalised.
3. Financiers are wary of taking risks on long and large projects of any kind.
4. This opens the door for efficiency to meet new demand (I think especially when efficiencies are encouraged with public money).
5. Penetration by micro-generation is impeded by the existence of power plants built prior to market liberalization.
6. Micro-generation still comes out ahead for rapidly producing small incremental increases in generation. Large power plants are at a disadvantage.
7. Nuclear is particularly vulnerable because of its history of cost overruns and early closures - financiers see it as risky.
8. Nuclear has additional concerns about the lack of coherent plans for permanent waste disposal.
9. Nuclear has benefited from very high subsidies in the past.
10. Subsidies for renewables are higher today.
11. Subsidies for fossil fuels remain high.

The bit about historic subsidies is the conclusion from a 2000 US Goldberg study that this paper quotes. It compares the development periods for nuclear and wind, and puts nuclear subsidies at US$15.3/kWh and wind at US$0.46/kWh during their respective development periods.

For the year 2001, excluding externalities, the highest subsidies were for solid fuel at 13 billion euros, followed by oil and gas at 8.7 billion euros. Renewables came in at 5.3 billion euros with nuclear now lowest at 2.2.

I approve of higher subsidies for renewables. I can't agree with higher subsidies for fossil fuels.

If you include externalities, add 25.6-46.2 billion euros annually for solid fuels, 12-21.4 for oil and gas, 2.7 for nuclear and 2.0-2.7 for renewables.

This has gotta change.


Quote:
It is clear that financing new nuclear build in the financial markets will prove very challenging. Nuclear has a bad reputation there, with memories of the cost overruns of plants in the 1970s and 1980s still strong, with the attendant power utility ‘stranded costs’ – those investment costs never likely to be repaid by future electricity sales.

Quote:
Without being able to demonstrate a workable solution to the waste issue, it will be difficult to build new nuclear plants.

Quote:
as the revenue from billions of kWh of electricity is the only outside funding coming into the nuclear industry (a point often forgotten by those engaged in uranium production and other fuel cycle activities), the shape of power markets, the contracting and other market mechanisms, are very important. Investors have to take major risks with selling nuclear power at good prices for many years in the future, to recoup the heavy initial plant investment costs.

Quote:
Understanding all the risks and allocating them to their correct location is clearly something that financiers find very difficult.

Please do not post what I do or do not assert. I agreed with the points shown italicized above in one of your previous posts.

However, I don't agree with everything in else in this post and I certainly don't agree with the Rocky Mountain institute article as I consider it bad from a science point of view.

glenn
 
Please do not post what I do or do not assert. I agreed with the points shown italicized above in one of your previous posts.

However, I don't agree with everything in else in this post and I certainly don't agree with the Rocky Mountain institute article as I consider it bad from a science point of view.

glenn

Apologies. That was wrong of me. Especially putting your name and that of RMI in the same sentence, when I knew you had disagreed with them. Sorry. Sorry.

A question then.

Do you agree with the points I made, which are my attempted summary from a number of sources about trends in subsidies and the resulting market? I don't expect you to agree with all of them necessarily, but I thought you would agree with points 3 and 4, in particular.
 
I wasn't talking about just the US, lots of other countries built nuclear power plants, and lots of nuclear bombs.

The only country that I know that combined weapons production reactors with electricity on a large scale is Russia. I don't see how that would compare with cost of nuclear power in the west. France had a few electricity production reactors that were bomb builders as well, but they were shut down a while ago. Only the phoenix plant is left to make pu.

It doesn't take much reactor capacity to make a bunch of plutonium.

glenn
 
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I wasn't talking about just the US, lots of other countries built nuclear power plants, and lots of nuclear bombs.


Power plants are generally no good for weapons. A light water reactor or a heavy water reactor makes crap plutonium for weapons. Too heavy on the Pu-240, and you really don't want pu-240 in a weapon because it has way too high a spontaneous fission rate and thus will cause you a fissile.

What you really need is a fast breeder reactor and if it's for military purposes the breeder rods need to be removed and separated frequently or you'll also end up with too much pu-240 (and other heavy isotopes as well).

Bringing up the contamination of Hanford or other nuclear weapons fabrication sites is a strawman. You're comparing power plants to a military operation which was designed to generate massive amounts of plutonium and to separate it. It is also a very early and crude system.

Nuclear fuel does not get into the environment as long as the rods are intact and kept in the reactor or storage. Hanford was a processing center and an especially waste-intensive one at that. The reactors did not simply generate plutonium. They also used the facility for dissolving the materials and chemical separations on massive scales. Some of the early experiments with separation were done there and not all turned out so well.
 
One reason that the true cost is hard to discover, is that Nuclear Power Plants were used to create the material for Nuclear weapons. It was the main reason so many expensive power plants were built.

In a great irony, much of the fuel being used for power generation now comes from nuclear warheads.

No. A few weapons breeders produced energy as well as a biproduct. No commercial light water reactors in the US or any other nation in the world are weapons material reactors.
 

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