Nuclear Energy - I need to vent/rant

We don't want that and ultimately it won't help the environment either. It's been said that "enviornmentalism is a luxury." That's sorta true. Go to Fiji and try to walk on the side of the street. I have. You can barely breathe. The cars are poorly tunes. This is why you don't want to destroy the economy, because it forces people to take their own welfare to the expense of things like the environment. Furthermore, the population just isn't going to put up with it.

What really happens is that people and nations who can afford the luxury impose the environmental costs of their activities onto other countries. I've already sent links that showed that the entire growth in Chinese emissions can be attributable to the production of goods destined for western countries.

The mining of minerals, which imposes almost unimaginable environmental costs, benefits the west, not the developing countries that deal with it. We dump our industrial waste on the third world too.

Now you're right. Emissions standards even for local activities can be lower in places like Fiji. But even if we ignore the fact that a lot of the emissions from Fiji are attributable to production for export that benefits us, when you look at emissions per capita, the USA comes out 7th in the world with 24.3 tonnes of CO2 equivalent, Canada 9th with 22.2 tonnes and Fiji 110th with 3.1. If you include emissions attributable to land-use changes, USA comes in at 14th with 22.9 tonnes, Canada 12th with 24.3 and Fiji 126th with 3.1. We are responsible for about 8 times the emissions of Fijians, and that's not including the goods they provide on our behalf. It's also not taking into account the emissions attributable to tourists in Fiji, who undoubtedly pollute more than the Fijians.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita

Income is one of the best indicators of carbon emissions. If the developing world were suddenly given our income, meeting climate change goals would become far more challenging.

I do not want to destroy the economy. I very much want to make the transition smooth, orderly and beneficial for all. But I have no doubt that you're wrong here. If we did destroy the economy, emissions would drop. Just look at Russia. Appalling environmental standards, but the crashing economy magically brought down emissions.
 
Imagine the energy needed to create, install and maintain that number of windmills.
It's certainly a great deal of energy. But building nuclear plants is also extremely energy intensive. And consider that I calculated that it's 1 wind turbine for every 500 cars on the road. If you imagine the average car lasts for 10 years, you'd only need to build 1 turbine for every 50 cars we build today as we ramp up wind power. It will actually go down then, because wind turbines last a lot longer than cars. So we can replace 1 wind turbine for every 1000 cars we manufacture. And all this is based on maintaining the same electrical demand, which is not what I'm proposing anyway.
 
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There's no point in arguing with someone who has built up a mythology in which countries import food that no one ever eats. Tell me why I should bother to read anything further you have to say.
I never said they don't eat it. I said there is no indication they don't produce other food that we eat. As an example, I know Brazil is a wheat importer. It exports a lot of beef that is consumed in North America. Also coffee, soy, sugar, and a lot of tropical fruits like bananas, mangos and pineapples. If we stop exporting wheat to Brazil, they will start producing some of their own, import a little more from Argentina, which is closer, or just eat more bananas. Nobody is going to starve. Brazil is one of the biggest net food exporters.

I should point out that some countries will continue to require food imports. These tend to be countries that can afford it, like South Korea, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia. And there will be some countries that will absolutely require food aid. But even then, it doesn't have to come from the other side of the world. It does now because energy is so cheap. If energy is more expensive, things will shift. No indication of mass starvation.
 
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I don't agree that nuclear is cheaper. In Canada, there's widespread recognition that nuclear is a very expensive option. It's the reason behind a huge public debt we're slowly paying off on our energy bills with decommissioning costs yet to come. And as I said, the OPA, even as they went with nuclear, recognized that the overall costs are greater than wind. I don't think there are unbiased cost studies out there at all. I could be made to believe that nuclear is cheaper, but I haven't been convinced yet.

When the Thatcher government privatised the UK electricity industry they originally included nuclear in the deal. For years the CEGB accounts showed nuclear as profitable, but the city boys insisted on seeing the real books and walked away laughing like donkeys. Nuclear power was a poison pill which had to be taken out of the deal.

All this, of course, refers to the old generation of nuclear power. There are new designs and fuel-cycles out there - mostly on paper, as I understand it. And no doubt lessons have been learned.
 
Thanks for the summary, Kevin.

I don't agree that nuclear is cheaper. In Canada, there's widespread recognition that nuclear is a very expensive option. It's the reason behind a huge public debt we're slowly paying off on our energy bills with decommissioning costs yet to come. And as I said, the OPA, even as they went with nuclear, recognized that the overall costs are greater than wind. I don't think there are unbiased cost studies out there at all. I could be made to believe that nuclear is cheaper, but I haven't been convinced yet.

Nuclear can vary in price by a lot, this is true. Generally it gets cheaper as you scale it up. There's also a large initial investment that is made in the plant. Once you have the plant built the operation is not that expensive and the fuel price is very cheap.

You really need to look at the whole picture for it. But I can agree that if you're starting out from nothing then it is expensive to put in the first plant from scratch. And of course, there's a lot of expense due to regulatory issues.

The reality is that most large sources of energy are going to be expesnive. Even very large coal plants cost multiple billions of dollars, especially considering that now they are being required to add scrubbers and such. It's the infrastructure too.

Yes, a wind turbine is relaitvely cheap, but it becomes expensive to build a large enough number to really make a dent in power consumption
 
With all this talk about hopeful developments in nuclear power, nobody has mentioned the promising ideas in renewable generation, like hybrid PV/thermal panels which increase the efficiency of both systems and tethered hovering wind turbines that capture the high winds. I haven't mentioned them because I try to stick to reality, especially since I'm focusing on the short term. But if you want pie-in-the-sky idealism, it isn't restricted just to nuclear.
 
Nuclear can vary in price by a lot, this is true. Generally it gets cheaper as you scale it up. There's also a large initial investment that is made in the plant. Once you have the plant built the operation is not that expensive and the fuel price is very cheap.

You really need to look at the whole picture for it. But I can agree that if you're starting out from nothing then it is expensive to put in the first plant from scratch. And of course, there's a lot of expense due to regulatory issues.

The reality is that most large sources of energy are going to be expesnive. Even very large coal plants cost multiple billions of dollars, especially considering that now they are being required to add scrubbers and such. It's the infrastructure too.

Yes, a wind turbine is relaitvely cheap, but it becomes expensive to build a large enough number to really make a dent in power consumption
I think we can all agree that while wind has low operating costs and no fuel costs, the operating costs of nuclear are lower still per kilowatt hour, even with the fuel. I don't think anyone disputes that. What fuel prices are likely to do, I'm not sure of, but there is a potential there for operating costs to go up as a result. Not dramatically in the next decades, like natural gas or coal if we put in carbon taxes, but enough to make a difference in the evaluation.

Nuclear has very high capital costs and long lead times, which increase the debt build up. In the various assessments of cost, decommissioning, waste storage and insurance are often not included. When they are, they are likely to be estimated on the low side by nuclear proponents and on the high side by opponents.

I agree that regulatory issues can raise the costs. They do with wind too. In both cases, some streamlining would really help. As it is we have to start from scratch arguing for each project. I wouldn't mind this normally, but as I've been saying, we're kind of running out of time here. And a part of me wants to just leave it up to individual communities - you get nuclear, wind or conservation. Pick your poison pill. But a coal plant is not an option. And neither is a nuclear plant or a bunch of wind turbines 300 miles away.
 
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I want to address the concern about wind turbines killing birds that was brought up some time ago. This is an issue routinely brought up by people who object to wind turbines primarily because it ruins their view.

In Toronto, we have a wind energy co-op that I belong to. Some members were horrified to discover this concern and expressed their discomfort with the staff. Because it is a co-op, the concerns were taken very seriously and the co-op hired the chief ornithologist of the Royal Ontario Museum, a man opposed to wind expansion on this basis, to conduct a study of the effects of the Toronto wind turbine on bird deaths. What he concluded was that, much to his surprise, the turbine caused fewer bird deaths than a comparably sized stationary building.

Wind turbines are known to cause bird deaths among raptors. Hawks that plunge directly downwards to pick up rabbits can sometimes hit the blades, which have a narrow profile from above. So in areas where rare eagles and hawks breed, I wouldn't put up wind turbines without some special design features. Migrating birds only hit wind turbines when they are thrown by winds in a storm. And in this respect, lit office buildings are even worse, because they disorient the birds as well.

Usually, the issue of bird deaths is bogus.

http://windshare.ca/documents/ExPlace Bird Monitoring Report.pdf
 
With all this talk about hopeful developments in nuclear power, nobody has mentioned the promising ideas in renewable generation, like hybrid PV/thermal panels which increase the efficiency of both systems and tethered hovering wind turbines that capture the high winds. I haven't mentioned them because I try to stick to reality, especially since I'm focusing on the short term. But if you want pie-in-the-sky idealism, it isn't restricted just to nuclear.

I made that point earlier, but it does bear re-emphasising.

We can either compare currently-working technologies to currently-working technologies, or speculative technologies to speculative technologies. Comparing currently-working renewables to speculative nukes or vice versa is just a covert way of begging the question.
 
Okay I have been doing some research based on DOE info for the US. I'm using the US beceause there is good data avaliable and this stuff would be less possible elsewhere.

If all conservation programs and technologies are implimented at 100%, this includes lighting replaced to LED's and all devices replaced to the most effecient technoogy avaliable this would reduce overall energy usage by up to 15-20% or so. BUT, most of these savings end up coming from heating, which is mostly done by non-electric means.

If you go with the electric grid, all technologies for conservations result in about an 8% net reduction. BUT, this turns out to only be about neutral for the next 30 years, based on expansion.

So in other words, if all appliances are replaced by energy star models and all incandescent lights are replaced and so on (not counting the energy needed to acomplish this) it would result in our energy demand being basically the same for the next 20-30 years. IT would just about offset all growth.

But, that's being optomistic and assuming across the board adoption. However, if you add in that there is a 30% reduction in technology capability by people (30% smalelr or less tv's, 30% smaller fridges, 30% slower computers) this results in a savings of only about 5%. If you assume a 20% reduction in consumerism (qualifies as a "Severe recession") that would result in an added 5-10%. This includes industry. Most electricity is used by industry and most energy intensive industries are already pretty effecient, since it's already a high cost.


So we're left with a total reduction of standard of living and an economic depression, we are left using about 85% as much as today. That is only a difference of 4.2 terawatts to about 3.9 terawatts.

And again, these are the most liberal estimates.

Now here comes the even worst part: If transportation moves to electric-centric with a 50% increase in deployment and usage of public transit, electrified railroads and a reduction of gasoline usage in the context of plug-in hybrids, battery cars or even hydrogen... it would result in a huge added demand to the electric grid. This means even with our induced depression we have about 130% need for electricity.

These are estimates and they;re initial, I'm trying to refine them, but the DOE's numbers show that even the most extreme measures will likely only manage to hopefully keep it from growing too fast..
 
If all conservation programs and technologies are implimented at 100%, this includes lighting replaced to LED's and all devices replaced to the most effecient technoogy avaliable this would reduce overall energy usage by up to 15-20% or so. BUT, most of these savings end up coming from heating, which is mostly done by non-electric means.

You need to stop thinking inside the box. Yes, if you insist on heating the same house with the same type of heating system, just a more efficient model, you'll only get marginal savings. Insulate it enough and you can yank out the heating system altogether and get heat from the hot water in your pipes and the stove you cook on. That reduces your heating load 100%.

And if we just did that and nothing more, given that HVAC accounts for 31% of domestic electricity use, we would already clear your numbers.

I think this level of insulation would probably be economically stupid. That last bit of energy savings is so hard to get that we'd be better off turning our attention elsewhere, and there's lots of elsewhere to turn to. But 75-80% reductions are fairly routine for anyone who wants them, and that level of conservation would generate 23% reductions in electricity use, still higher than your total numbers.

Edit: I'm wrong. Not overall, but about the exact numbers. Industry uses between 40-60% of energy, depending on the jurisdiction. Commerce uses some too. 23% reductions in domestic electricity are not 23% reductions overall. Although commerce routinely gets the same sort of reductions. I've toured several stores that are proud of their 80% reductions. Even WalMart is bulding stores with green roofs, refrigerators that throw heat into the sidewalk instead of indoors and use ultra efficient lights and other delights to achieve 80% energy reductions. I've always confessed my ignorance about industry. There have to be substantial savings possible, but not necessarily on the order of 80%.

Which brings me to another question. Is the DOE even calculating in the effects of things that combine? For example, if you install LED lights to replace incandescents, even if you don't insulate, your air conditioning needs will go down.
 
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Dr Buzzo, when you are talking about a "20% reduction in consumerism", what does that mean exactly? Are you assuming that people would be buying 20% fewer appliances and sticking the money they save under their mattress, or are you assuming that they would spend the money elsewhere but it would still cause a recession? I'm unclear on what the mechanism is supposed to be.
 
Dr Buzzo, when you are talking about a "20% reduction in consumerism", what does that mean exactly? Are you assuming that people would be buying 20% fewer appliances and sticking the money they save under their mattress, or are you assuming that they would spend the money elsewhere but it would still cause a recession? I'm unclear on what the mechanism is supposed to be.

Basically a 20% reduction in consumer good sales across the board. But that's assuming all things are equal. And actually I have to look deeper into the stats. The DOE has a mountain of info on energy usage that I'm sifting throuigh
 
Basically a 20% reduction in consumer good sales across the board. But that's assuming all things are equal. And actually I have to look deeper into the stats. The DOE has a mountain of info on energy usage that I'm sifting throuigh
Nobody is advocating a 20% decrease in sales across the board. Really old refrigerators should be replaced with new models. Insulation should be bought. As should new windows, roof paint and trees for shade. So should bicycles and transit passes. And rather than buy the $2 sweater imported from China, maybe you buy the $40 sweater knitted by hand locally. I foresee a temporary increase in sales, settling into something that feels comfortable when we've addressed global warming and finished building up our generation capacity. The economy should be booming.
 
Comparing currently-working renewables to speculative nukes or vice versa is just a covert way of begging the question.
What "speculative nukes" do you have in mind? I can't think of any nukes mentioned in this thread that aren't in operation somewhere. The most speculative thing I can recall in this thread are some re-processing techniques that have been demonstrated in a lab but are not commercially developed. Not completely "speculative".
 
Because he doesn't hear of it often, that makes it as "likely" as Luke Skywalker throwing waste into the sun. :D
 
Here is the best comprehensive chart I could find for electrical use across sectors. This is for California in 2002. I would have to think it's probably a good representative example of roughly what you'd find in other states and roughly what you'd find in other industrial countries as well.

As you ca seen, a large portion is in areas which are just not easily addressed. Lighting makes up a decent chunk, but how much can you save with more effecient lighting? Less than 50% savings, especially considering commercial already uses mostly florescent lights.

Heating and cooling makes up a relatively small chunk, and it's unknown how much you could really save there. If you have more effecient heat management for frigdes then mabe you could save a bit. But still... no matter how generous you are, you're doing well to squeeze a few percent savings out.

faq_enduse_chart.jpg
 
A little More info:

In the United States, approximately 1/3 of CO2 emissions come as a direct result of power plants generating electricity.

In much of Europe, it's higher, like ~40%. In Japan and South Korea it's even higher. In developing countries it ranges greatly. In some areas a lot of the energy for industry is generated on site due to the lack of power plants. But china, for example. is well over 50% CO2 emissions from fixed site power generation and such.

Worldwide, electrical generation and related fixed site electricity usage is about 40% of global CO2 production. Industrial processes make up the second, such as smelting, oil refining and so on That's about 20-25%. A close third is transportation at 20% and the remainder includes all other human activities.
 

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