Merged Now What?

[MCel58]

I think you misunderstood my question or I've misread your post and misunderstood it.

Let me try to create a hypothetical: we export a billion worth of cars to Australia, those cars consist of 1/2 a billion worth of components that are assembled in the UK to make a car, 50% of those components come from EU countries so tariff free and to a set standard.

That's what I meant by asking how much are our exports are based on internal EU trade. We could find that our cars now are going to cost 10% more to produce because of a trade agreement between the UK and EU. Would a 10% increase in price keep the same level of export to Australia?

That's what I meant by how much of our current trade to non-EU countries relies on our membership of the EU - not really anything to do about how the EU trade deals with a country like Australia are agreed and implemented at the moment.

Yes I understand that now. The answer appears to be outlined in this KPMG report for the car manufacture industry report which states "In the UK, 37% of the total value of spend in the supply chain (£33 billion in 2012) is currently sourced locally. Depending on the manufacturer, between 20-50% is imported from the EU and the rest from outside the EU". The full report is here http://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-KPMG-EU-Report.pdf You would obviously have to look at that supply chain for every Industry to work out the real costs and impacts of Brexit.
I was basically trying to point out my annoyance at the spin that the Government is trying. They are making it look like the offer of a trade deal with Australia is a new trade deal whereas all they are really doing is trying to maintain an already existing deal that has potentially been broken by Brexit. It has to do at least 28 of those at a non eu level just to maintain a status quo on its existing outside of the EU trade plus as you point out there has been no consideration of how many deals are underpinned by deals with other EU countries for components, research and know how.

 

[McHrozni]

I'm always amazed why people are always puzzled by the UK low productivity per person figures compared to those lazy French and unionised Germans.

It shows to me that some people do not understand that in nearly every case you get higher productivity from happy and committed staff.

Yup. Competing on price is the worst kind of competing you can ever do, and this is one of the reasons why. If you nourish your employees to be happy and productive, they will be. They'll even accept lower wages for a time in exchange for working at a place where they feel happy.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Another predicted outcome from Brexit, the old will continue to get better off and the young will continue to get worse off.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36826166

 

[Spanx]

Meanwhile on the channel 5 debate last night Julie Hartley-Brewer said that "it's tough " and remain voters have to live with the decision. Fair enough.

When it comes to the EU making the decision of letting the UK stay in the single market (which we were promised). Will we just say it's tough if they say no to the single market ?

 

[McHrozni]

Another predicted outcome from Brexit, the old will continue to get better off and the young will continue to get worse off.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36826166

Since 2010 the state pension has risen according to the "triple lock" - whichever is the higher of inflation, earnings or 2.5%.

Was someone actively trying to make British middle class poor to benefit the elderly?

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

When it comes to the EU making the decision of letting the UK stay in the single market (which we were promised). Will we just say it's tough if they say no to the single market ?

Any deal that keeps UK in ECM would likely anger the Leave voters, because it doesn't actually address any of their silly concerns about EU. If anything it makes some of their criticism valid - EU then would be able to tell UK what to do, as opposed to now where UK has direct input plus occasionally veto plus ability to negotiate exemptions.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Another predicted outcome from Brexit, the old will continue to get better off and the young will continue to get worse off.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36826166

Not sure its so much to do with Brexit as just the general way things are going.

This will be the first generation who are poorer than the one before them.

 

[Planigale]

Since 2010 the state pension has risen according to the "triple lock" - whichever is the higher of inflation, earnings or 2.5%.

Was someone actively trying to make British middle class poor to benefit the elderly?

McHrozni

The elderly vote!

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Since 2010 the state pension has risen according to the "triple lock" - whichever is the higher of inflation, earnings or 2.5%.

Was someone actively trying to make British middle class poor to benefit the elderly?

McHrozni

It would seem so.

On top of the state pension (which in reality isn't all that much so slightly a red herring) there are quite a few public sector final salary pension schemes and other index linked pensions that have risen far faster than salaries over the past while.

Factor in some pretty stratospheric house price rises and there are quite a few people of pensionable age doing really rather well for themselves.

I don't grudge people their pension or anything else they get and we should never forget that there are plenty of older people who are simply struggling to get by as well but I do wish those comfortably off would be a bit less entitled and a bit more magnanimous to those not in their situation.

 

[McHrozni]

It would seem so.

On top of the state pension (which in reality isn't all that much so slightly a red herring) there are quite a few public sector final salary pension schemes and other index linked pensions that have risen far faster than salaries over the past while.

The problem is that a triple lock like that is guaranteed to become financially unaffordable at a certain point in the future. The fact it would take a long time is immaterial, it's written in a way that is inherently unsustainable, especially with an aging population.

It's also quite difficult to remove once in place, due to the elderly vote, as Planigale mentioned.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The problem is that a triple lock like that is guaranteed to become financially unaffordable at a certain point in the future. The fact it would take a long time is immaterial, it's written in a way that is inherently unsustainable, especially with an aging population.

It's also quite difficult to remove once in place, due to the elderly vote, as Planigale mentioned.

McHrozni

Oh, I don't disagree.

For a long time we've had the idea that pensioners are untouchable, possibly rightly so, which I think derives back to the 'they fought in the war for us' mindset.

I imagine that will start to change to some extent as the last of the war generation leaves us. Of course the political influence will remain but that tends to be circumvented by making the changes only apply to the young when they get to retirement.

I have suspected for some time that when I get to pension age I will be greeted with an apologetic letter from HM Government rather than any hard cash.

A mixture of some bad decisions and the general economic titsuppery also hasn't helped in preparing myself for that eventuality.

Luckily 1) I'm Scottish so I will probably never make it to my sixties anyway 2) On the off-chance I do I'm sure voluntary euthanasia will have been legalised by then anyway

 

[ceptimus]

Yup. Competing on price is the worst kind of competing you can ever do, and this is one of the reasons why. If you nourish your employees to be happy and productive, they will be. They'll even accept lower wages for a time in exchange for working at a place where they feel happy.

McHrozni

That's why it's good that once Brexit is complete, companies will find it much harder to import cheap eastern European labour. Instead they will have to improve working conditions and/or offer better pay to encourage native British workers to work for them.

 

[The Don]

That's why it's good that once Brexit is complete, companies will find it much harder to import cheap eastern European labour. Instead they will have to improve working conditions and/or offer better pay to encourage native British workers to work for them.

It's a possibility, albeit a faint one.

I suppose it depends on the degree to which the labour is a commodity. One of the reasons why Eastern European agricultural labour is so popular is that the quality of the labour is higher and so is productivity. There's a perception that UK workers lack the skills and/or motivation to perform the job well and cost-effectively.

edited to add.....

Then again, I don't see where this much-vaunted competitiveness is going to come from if labour costs increase significantly.

 

[Darat]

It's a possibility, albeit a faint one.

I suppose it depends on the degree to which the labour is a commodity. One of the reasons why Eastern European agricultural labour is so popular is that the quality of the labour is higher and so is productivity. There's a perception that UK workers lack the skills and/or motivation to perform the job well and cost-effectively.

edited to add.....

Then again, I don't see where this much-vaunted competitiveness is going to come from if labour costs increase significantly.

Perhaps the UK will reach the productivity levels of say Germany:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/econo...lcomparisonsofproductivityfinalestimates/2014

...snip...

The UK's shortfall relative to the rest of the G7 countries as a whole widened to the largest shortfall since records began in 1991. The UK’s shortfall to Germany increased by 2 percentage points and is the widest recorded against a G7 country.

...snip...

So if costs do go up perhaps productivity gains will offset those losses. Mind you it all has bugger all to being in the EU or not, there is no reason UK businesses and those invested in the UK couldn't have been making those changes for decades.

 

[McHrozni]

It's a possibility, albeit a faint one.

I suppose it depends on the degree to which the labour is a commodity. One of the reasons why Eastern European agricultural labour is so popular is that the quality of the labour is higher and so is productivity. There's a perception that UK workers lack the skills and/or motivation to perform the job well and cost-effectively.

edited to add.....

Then again, I don't see where this much-vaunted competitiveness is going to come from if labour costs increase significantly.

Indeed, it would require a massive change in UK thinking. If that does happen, Brexit was a good thing. It's far more likely though that they'll simply find a way to blame it all on evil Merkel and wallow in self-pity while the UK economy does the Titanic.

McHrozni

 

[Tolls]

Those possible productivity increases really won't materialise for things like crop pickers.
I suppose the likes of S and A could turn to some strawberry picking robot...

 

[Francesca R]

Was someone actively trying to make British middle class poor to benefit the elderly?

Erm yes, the elderly. And the younger generations have helped them.

 

[Francesca R]

There's a perception that UK workers lack the skills and/or motivation to perform the job well and cost-effectively.

More the second one, since typically this is concerned with unskilled or semi skilled labour

 

[Francesca R]

That's why it's good that once Brexit is complete, companies will find it much harder to import cheap eastern European labour. Instead they will have to improve working conditions and/or offer better pay to encourage native British workers to work for them.

Which is why many people (particularly those likely to personally benefit) support exit. Protectionism regularly trumps efficiency. It's also why low skilled folks will tend to favour "points based immigration" (also a bad idea efficiency wise)

 

[Francesca R]

Some actual polls suggest that support for the EU has gone up since the referendum result, mostly recruited from the "don't care" camp.

Not really in France or Italy, and these matter the most.

That's the significance of the UK referendum. An object lesson in complacency.

Another lesson is the "complacency" that electorates will vote the status quo rather than be in thrall to anti-EU populism. The EU playing hardball with such movements has not stopped their rise.