Merged Now What?

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McHrozni said:
..... non-economic reasons that no one is able to name trumped the very real economic considerations........i
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Two lies in one sentence! Even for you that takes some beating.

You aren't an honest interlocutor. Don't expect any more responses to your garbage from me. Enjoy your day.
 
Ambrosia said:
No.

If I knew then what I know now, I'd still have voted to leave.

I'm not happy at all at the lack of planning by the Leave camp, and some of the promises of the Leave campaign (£350m/week for NHS, quick reduction in immigration) never passed the smell test in the first place and didn't sway my vote anyway.

No doubt McHrozni will be along shortly to call me a Brexitard.
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But what fact, what information, what serious consideration of the past and the future determined your leave vote?

Most older people around here appear to have voted out. In my opinion, they have a rather woolly, oh-it-was-much-better-in-the-past view, and seemed to think that their particular chip on their shoulder would magically resolve itself if we left the EU.
 
MikeG said:
Two lies in one sentence! Even for you that takes some beating.

You aren't an honest interlocutor. Don't expect any more responses to your garbage from me. Enjoy your day.
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Posts like these always remember me of brave sir Robin and his ministers.



McHrozni
 
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GlennB said:
........Back on topic .. why is Osborne still in office? Too many bigwigs to lose in such a short time? Who will become Chancellor later in the year?
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Continuity, so as not to spook the markets more than necessary. He'll be gone as soon as there is a new PM. I reckon Leadsom will be the new chancellor.
 
McHrozni said:
This looks fairly reasonable to me. The only thing I disagree with is that the middle case is necessarily the most probable.
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My opinion was based on discussions with my colleagues, as part of our own planning. I agree it may be optimistic.

McHrozni said:
While this is normally true, you need to factor in what has happened since the referendum on the political field. Given the chaos in British politics in both major parties and the surprisingly unified, disciplined stance from the continent (plus Ireland), it could well be the most probable case is somewhere south of that, between middle and worst-case scenario.
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True, given the second Sterling crash, the additional investor freeze and the utter lack of direction things are not good.

McHrozni said:
This is also not counting the effects of Scottish independence, which isn't all that unlikely if UK leaves the EU. Some firms may opt to move to Scotland instead, that Nissan factor is one of them.
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That would, IMO, push the effect seriously into disaster territory. Such a move would be logistically easier and hence even more likely than a move further away. This would spill over particularly into the non-FS services sector even more. And given that that represents an additional 56% of UK GDP, there is a major disaster in the making there.

McHrozni said:
I'd recommend you say UK's economic activity moving instead of disappearing though.
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True, I should have phrased that better. The industries won't disappear, just migration.
After all, it's all about migration...
 
Well they dug up Oliver Letwin and put him in charge of some sort of planning committee thing - they could probably resurrect some other failed politician as temporary chancellor.

I suggest substituting Osborne with a rusty tin bucket with some googly eyes painted on it - that would be an improvement till they get around to installing a real new chancellor.
 
MCel58 said:
I am wondering given that some of the indicators, deficit, commercial property, investment by businesses and household debt were already were showing signs of contraction in Q1 and Q2 (according to the Bank of England report yesterday) whether we were already moving towards a technical recession and all that has happened is that Brexit has speeded up that process due to uncertainty. It may be that we are following a Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc argument.
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No. The Brexit ******** was already creating uncertainty and doubt.
 
Lothian said:
Decision making is all about balancing competing priorities. If you reject hiring someone on the grounds of not liking their shoes and you ignore the fact that they have all the skills required for the job then your decision making ability is poor.
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Unfortunately it happens; I've seen decent CVs binned because the HR drone didn't like the font.

Lothian said:
In the EU referendum the state of the UK economy is a key factor that should feature highly in the decision making.
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It all comes back to the informed and rational voter doesn't it.
 
catsmate said:
Well, to be fair, there is the underlying "I don't like all those uppity brown people" sector of the Leave camp.
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Certainly, but these brown people come from countries that aren't members of the EU, so leaving EU doesn't really affect that very much. UK is able to control that even if it stays in the EU. It's a (largely) reasonable criticism of British migrant policy, but not one that can be addressed (let alone solved) by Brexit. It's in the made up category, as far as I'm concerned.

McHrozni
 
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catsmate said:
It all comes back to the informed and rational voter doesn't it.
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It does and as we know the more educated the more interested in politics the higher the proportion voted remain.

There is no doubt that some highly educated people with an interest in politics voted leave because they think it will be better for the country, however the explanation how it will be better has been largely hidden.

The reasons for leave I have seen are mostly selfish. A farming friend argues the EU prevents him doing things that would make his life easier. Mike's African trading reason is another I consider selfish. He seems to accept it is as well.

And then there are those who blame immigration which as we know is a net contributor to the economy. These are certainly selfish reasons, possibly xenophobic as well.

I have seen some people claim that there will be a short recession then a prosperity that exceeds the status quo. However I have not seen anyone explain how it will happen and what trade relationships will need to be formed to produce it.

I imagine that as we go down the line the brexiters will try to make out that there was a really difficult economic choice to be made. Hopefully people won't forget what the experts said and who told us to ignore them.
 
Aepervius said:
Did you intentionally go from political to personal decision ? I am guessing because you understood if you stayed on political level, you had no chance to build a good argument.

Actually economic played a decision in all of them directly or indirectly. And it should. Buying a car when it makes no economic sense, or starting smoking when you have no money, or birthing kids when you can't feed them ? irresponsible.
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I think you are confusing economics with personal finance.
 
MikeG said:
Ridiculous. No plan/s that Vote Leave could ever make would have any authority because............get this...............they weren't/ aren't the government, or fighting to be elected as the government. I'm really not sure how much simpler I can make this for you, and I'm sorry that you can't understand this very basic point.

As an illustration, if Gisela Stuart had said "we intend to spend an extra £5 billion a year on the NHS" what impact would that have had on George Osborne's plans, do you think?
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I know the plans wouldn't have authority, but considering that their opposition were saying "doing this would be disastrous for these reasons", the least one could expect was a "not if we do this". As it was, all we got was denial of experts' assessments, and now here we are, up ****'s creek without a paddle.

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Argumemnon said:
Then riddle me this: name two legitimate reasons you've heard for the Leave option.
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That's the crux of the issue, isn't it - none were provided. It's not my fault, believe it or not.

The best alternative for UK that I've seen come from an Onion-like piece and involve the UK becoming the 51st state of you probably know which state.

McHrozni
 
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