Merged Now What?

[Francesca R]

Isn't "trump quality" a contradiction in terms?

BRITISH LOSE RIGHT TO CLAIM THAT AMERICANS ARE DUMBER

“This is a dark day,” he said. “But I hold out hope that, come November, Americans could become dumber than us once more.”

 

[Klimax]

Uh, it's going to take years for any 'experience' to be established. And unless there are some here who have won Randi's Million Dollar Challenge, no one can say with certainty whether that experience will be positive, negative, or mixed.

Based on current trade and economics, likely 90% negative. main determinant will be how much will reaming of trade agreements and what Scotland does.

Permanently? Or will the currency simply fluctuate in trading, as all currencies do.

(You want to see a currency with a crazy exchange history? Look no further than the Canadian dollar against the U.S. And yet Canada manages to survive and prosper.)

Fluctuate? Yes. How strong? Not much. Canada is I'd say bit different case then GB.

 

[Rincewind]

BRITISH LOSE RIGHT TO CLAIM THAT AMERICANS ARE DUMBER

 

[Didymus]

Maybe Didymus means it will be to live expensively in Spain because the pound was gonna keep tanking rather hard.

I hadn't even considered exchange rates. I simply meant that once Britain leaves the EU its citizens will be subject to the same standard immigration procedures as non-Europeans. Such as waiting years for a permit, showing family connections to your new country, passing background checks, showing you have sufficient income to support yourself (or that you have employment waiting for you) etc. etc. Brits won't be able to just walk in and buy a house any more.

 

[gypsyjackson]

I hadn't even considered exchange rates. I simply meant that once Britain leaves the EU its citizens will be subject to the same standard immigration procedures as non-Europeans. Such as waiting years for a permit, showing family connections to your new country, passing background checks, showing you have sufficient income to support yourself (or that you have employment waiting for you) etc. etc. Brits won't be able to just walk in and buy a house any more.

That'll be part of the exit negotiations. The smart thing for both sides would be to have some sort of expedited procedure traded off against a level of access to the EU market. For now it's speculation.

 

[Andy_Ross]

If the UK are expecting to keep their freedom of movement and residence in the EU it's reasonable to expect the UK to allow EU citizens the same freedom.

 

[Ambrosia]

That is an example of an EU member *not* replying with "OK let's whack the Brits with the pointy end of our big stick to keep everyone else in line . . . . out means out etc " . . .

I really think that the majority of EU politicians will take this line once things settle down. Large EU economies might rattle their sabres in the sort term, but ultimately pragmatism is probably going to prevail.

 

[catsmate]

'Martin Schulz, the president of the European parliament, told the Guardian that EU lawyers were studying whether it was possible to speed up the triggering of article 50 – the untested procedure for leaving the European Union.

“Uncertainty is the opposite of what we need,” Schulz said, adding that it was difficult to accept that “a whole continent is taken hostage because of an internal fight in the Tory party”.'

Amen. Article

Meanwhile Johnson is saying "No rush" as if it were entirely up to the UK.

The EU wants a formal declaration next week.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Nope, the UK parliament is preeminent in regards to constitutional matters.

I really don't understand what the grounds are for seeking a second independence referendum. The EU remain or leave was a UK issue and all votes carried the same importance.

I think it's slightly more complicated than UK parliament is pre-eminent because I believe they've also promised not to change anything material without the assent of the Scottish Government but I don't see it being a problem to be honest.

Was your statement that you don't understand the grounds for seeking a 2nd referendum rhetorical or genuine? Because I think the argument has been made fairly clearly.

 

[Ambrosia]

The EU wants a formal declaration next week.

The EU can take a running jump. We'll make a formal declaration when it suits our interests to do so.

 

[Francesca R]

Was your statement that you don't understand the grounds for seeking a 2nd referendum rhetorical or genuine? Because I think the argument has been made fairly clearly.

There will surely be a second indyref if polling indicates a landslide. In that case difficulties be damned. But public opinion in Scotland post Brexit vote is the only indicator to watch.

 

[Corsair 115]

Based on current trade and economics, likely 90% negative.

How so?

(As a general point, I am dubious of all economic projections. I often see reported in the news some financial institutions major report on what it foresees for the economy. But do these projections from various financial institutions have any track record of accuracy? If not, then they sure as heck shouldn't be presented as news.)

Fluctuate? Yes. How strong? Not much. Canada is I'd say bit different case then GB.

The point is that if Canada can manage the large swings its currency has seen in regards to its largest trading partner's currency, I see no reason why the U.K. can't manage it.

 

[Klimax]

The EU can take a running jump. We'll make a formal declaration when it suits our interests to do so.

Do idiocies only at your own peril. Pretty sure, nobody will entertain you for long and the more idiocies will mean much worse conditions and agreements.

How so?

(As a general point, I am dubious of all economic projections. I often see reported in the news some financial institutions major report on what it foresees for the economy. But do these projections from various financial institutions have any track record of accuracy? If not, then they sure as heck shouldn't be presented as news.)

Currently, this first time they get tested as far as leaving EU goes. A lot of it will depend on conditions and agreements between EU and Britain. Also how much financial institution leave will affect GB and City of London).

The point is that if Canada can manage the large swings its currency has seen in regards to its largest trading partner's currency, I see no reason why the U.K. can't manage it.

They can manage, question is what will remain. Sterling was very stable over its life time and for a long time backed by large empire and strong industry. Empire is gone and strength of industries is already questionable, because of moving to cheap locales. (Dyson - Malaysia) Also presence of many financial groups in City of London helped to anchor it. They won't be there for long...

Aka, you can always survive, question is in what state.

 

[Darat]

The EU can take a running jump. We'll make a formal declaration when it suits our interests to do so.

Yeah it's only right that the future of the whole of the EU should have to wait whilst the Tories get their act together.

ETA: Cameron should have had the nerve to give the leave campaign what they wanted and invoked the leave clause this morning.

 

[Francesca R]

Cameron should have had the nerve to give the leave campaign what they wanted and invoked the leave clause this morning.

I don't think the leave campaign (read: Boris) did want that.

 

[Corsair 115]

Currently, this first time they get tested as far as leaving EU goes. A lot of it will depend on conditions and agreements between EU and Britain. Also how much financial institution leave will affect GB and City of London).

So, what you seem to be saying is that there are a lot of variables and unknowns. In which case, that would seem to make any future projection even less likely to be accurate.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I don't think the leave campaign (read: Boris) did want that.

Am I the only one who gets the impression from Boris that he's now slightly concerned that the public have taken this too far by actually voting for it? I got the impression from his speeches that he's every so gently starting to backpedal and manage expectations downwards in terms of what will actually change - presumably in the hope of agreeing some kind of EU-lite deal on exit?

I get the feeling he might have much rather been a plucky loser as he is now going to actually have to deliver something that was based on mostly lies.

 

[Degeneve]

Do idiocies only at your own peril. Pretty sure, nobody will entertain you for long and the more idiocies will mean much worse conditions and agreements.



Currently, this first time they get tested as far as leaving EU goes. A lot of it will depend on conditions and agreements between EU and Britain. Also how much financial institution leave will affect GB and City of London).



They can manage, question is what will remain. Sterling was very stable over its life time and for a long time backed by large empire and strong industry. Empire is gone and strength of industries is already questionable, because of moving to cheap locales. (Dyson - Malaysia) Also presence of many financial groups in City of London helped to anchor it. They won't be there for long...

Aka, you can always survive, question is in what state.

Well, in an "independent" state...

Although "independent" doesn't mean much in a world which becomes more and more globalised and where decisions made in other countries can heavily impact your own situation...

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

So, what you seem to be saying is that there are a lot of variables and unknowns. In which case, that would seem to make any future projection even less likely to be accurate.

Forecasts will be wrong. But they still inform. They show the direction and quantum of change. Whether the economy is 8% or 12% worse off is not really the point but rather that's it's worse off by a significant amount. To dismiss that forecast because the real number might be 9% instead of 10% would be missing the whole point.

 

[Degeneve]

Yeah it's only right that the future of the whole of the EU should have to wait whilst the Tories get their act together.

ETA: Cameron should have had the nerve to give the leave campaign what they wanted and invoked the leave clause this morning.

If I am well informed Cameron could not do it without a prior vote by the Parliament requesting him to do so.