I am suggesting here that the present Government will have a problem if the price of Brexit is a larger public sector. If these experts conclude that immigration cannot be controlled and that we will still need to pay a contribution to the EU.
Please try and break your posts into paragraphs, it makes them much easier to follow.
We can control immigration and not pay monies to the EU by outright leaving the EU and not caring about the "common market" or negotiating a Norway type of EEA deal.
Whether that's the best course of action or not, requires investigation and people to do some sums. For example, when Obama visited the UK he cautioned against leaving the EU and said it might put the UK 'to the back of the queue' for trade deals. Now it looks as though the EU US trade deal has hit the rocks somewhat as if the UK isn't part of the EU anymore that throws a spanner into the works. So the reverse might turn out to be true.
Reuters said:
"The 'back of the queue' statement will be forgotten by the next administration, if not sooner," said Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics. "In my view, TTIP is either dormant or dead in the wake of Brexit."
It may be easier for Washington to negotiate a bilateral trade deal with Britain, a "like-minded" country that is more open to free trade than the 27 remaining EU members, said Miriam Sapiro, a former deputy U.S. Trade Representative.
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So, if, the UK were to quit the EU entirely and leave the common market, but then shortly thereafter strike a trade deal with the US, then we've closed one door but opened a different one. Which door is more profitable?
If we do leave the EU common market, then there still remains possibilities to strike OK deals with the EU. The UK has a large trade deficit with the EU, and while collectively they might not notice a few % loss in their economy, individual countries might well be hit quite hard, and those countries could lobby the EU to get it an acceptable deal. If we leave the common market we'll lose zero tariffs, but we could still get 'pretty low tariffs' especially if we come to a compromise on migration. We could get "lowish" tariffs, in exchange for "freeish" movement of people perhaps.
There's a world of opportunities out there and we don't have to tie up our economy with that of our closer geographical neighbours to access them. Just because we've done that for the past 40odd years, doesn't mean we should continue to do so.
