Merged Now What?

[Francesca R]

That probably isn't the most urgent thing to sort out.

If it is, I guess they'll just follow SOP for countries due to take on the leadership but which voted exit six months prior.

*reaches for rule book* . . . . erm.

 

[gypsyjackson]

The UK was expected to lead the EU Council for six months as from 1st January 2017. I wonder whether this will still be the case. Can a member State which applies for exist reasonnably lead the UE Council?

There is planning in hand for this, as the possibility has been known about for a long time. The U.K. couldn't be part of the discussion according to art 50.

 

[catsmate]

Yes the pound has fallen lots, yes there will be turmoil in the financial markets for a while, but it'll take a minimum of 2 years before Brexit actually happens and the markets will stabilise and recover somewhat in the nearish future.

Uncertainty. The first FS companies are already planning their departure from London. They don't want two years of chaos.

Not lots has actually changed in the fundamentals of the economy. I don't agree that GDP will fall a lot and unemployment will rise massively.

Very wrong. The UK has just decided to leave the EU, hence companies based in the UK for access to the EU will soon (and two years isn't a long time) have a choice.

Most UK EU Trade agreements post Brexit don't really need to change all that much, we need to trade with the EU and the EU needs to trade with us.

Oh good grief...

 

[3point14]

Highly unlikely.

Yes the pound has fallen lots, yes there will be turmoil in the financial markets for a while, but it'll take a minimum of 2 years before Brexit actually happens and the markets will stabilise and recover somewhat in the nearish future.

Not lots has actually changed in the fundamentals of the economy. I don't agree that GDP will fall a lot and unemployment will rise massively.

Most UK EU Trade agreements post Brexit don't really need to change all that much, we need to trade with the EU and the EU needs to trade with us.

Are you British, did you vote?

If you did, did you do so off the back of your own financial analysis, rather than that of the eminent economists who all said it was going to be a disaster?

If you used your own financial analysis, what's your background in global economics?

 

[applecorped]

I hope the Spice Girls reunion is still on.

 

[Francesca R]

The first FS companies are already planning their departure from London.

Which ones are doing this?

 

[Information Analyst]

Maybe the public will sour on Brexit as the economic consequences become apparent? Then the government may have a political excuse to not move forward on leaving the EU?

One would like to think so, but considering how clueless they've been to the warnings, they probably won't recognise the consequences when they happen. Their holidays will be more expensive, and they will get hit by customs when they bring back the amount of fags and booze they've got used to. They will see jobs and homes being lost, benefits cut, more austerity, and yet little change to what they chose to see of migration. They will still mutter under their breath as another white-face walks past in the street, and only occasionally wonder - without making the connection - where all the nice Polish retail staff went. When everything is not just still crap, but worse, they will never recognise it as their fault, and I expect a sizeable chunk will be forever blaming the EU because, well, they didn't give us the generous leaving terms that Boris and Gove and IDS and Gisela assured us the EU would give us.

They will certainly not notice that all those pesky EU regulations the tabloids used to whine about are still there, still being enforced, and UK businesses still adhering to them, but with no input into changing them.

 

[Darat]

Uncertainty. The first FS companies are already planning their departure from London. They don't want two years of chaos.

Very wrong. The UK has just decided to leave the EU, hence companies based in the UK for access to the EU will soon (and two years isn't a long time) have a choice.

Oh good grief...

Yep my mate's company has been making provisional plans to move most of their London office to their Paris office. Looks lije that will be going ahead so that's him out of a job. (He's back office support staff in an international bank.)

 

[Darat]

Which ones are doing this?

I know of one that has already been making provisional plans to move the bulk of their London office to their Paris office if the vote was leave.

 

[Klimax]

you think? on what grounds? I think the floodgates just cracked open..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/now-its-our-turn-geert-wilders-calls-dutch-referendum

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/victory-freedom-le-pen-demands-referendum-france

there is a lot of Euro-skepticism in the rest of Europe too, and it should be pretty obvious by now that Spain & Greece cannot remain on the same currency as Germany & Scandinavia forever.

A lot? You're overselling them. As for Spain and Greece, the only thing keeping them alive is EU and Euro. Should they lose it, then they are nothing but black hole. Already twice there were rumors they would exit Euro. Twice there was massive exit of capital. Their "currencies" wouldn't be even worth the paper wasted on them. (And electronic bits wouldn't fare any better)

Why do you think it will strengthen?

Seems like the Netherlands will be the next to pull out.

If they want to have same GDP as land under ocean. On the other hand it would mean prices of land in my country skyrocketing. (We got already plenty of Hollanders here...)

===

Anyway, now we wait to see how big hole in City of London will be.

 

[The Don]

I can understand the argument on both sides for their decision, but I do believe that the announcement to the employees was hasty. It will take years for the separation to be made. From memory (I can't find a source at the moment) - Greenland took 5 years or so to complete all their negotiations (fishing rights being the main sticking point).

Indeed as reported on the radio today, fishing was the sole (no pun intended) substantive point whereas the relationship between UK and EU is far, far more complicated.

As I understand it. After Brexit, and until an agreement is reached the UK and EU would trade on WTO "baseline" terms. Is this right ?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Indeed as reported on the radio today, fishing was the sole (no pun intended) substantive point whereas the relationship between UK and EU is far, far more complicated.

As I understand it. After Brexit, and until an agreement is reached the UK and EU would trade on WTO "baseline" terms. Is this right ?

I think that's the default terms for any country with no agreement in place so yes but presumably the plan would be to agree something in the 2 year notice period.

 

[The Don]

I think that's the default terms for any country with no agreement in place so yes but presumably the plan would be to agree something in the 2 year notice period.

Unless the terms are either "exactly what we have now - and with the same rules" or "WTO default", I cannot see how such complex trade negotiations could possibly be completed so quickly.

Especially as there are so many other matters that would also need to be decided in that same two year period.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Whatever else is in store, absolutely zero concessions should be made to the UK. Zero. Out means out. Totally out. Not at the table, no voice, gone, a non-entity internally, and a foreign power with no special standing of any kind. As a fellow NATO member, same relations as with, say, Turkey, another non-EU member.

Also, time to replace the UK on the UN Security Council. Replacing the UK and France with the EU and, say, India would make a lot more sense, especially since the UK speaks only for itself now and cannot be said to responsibly exercise regional leadership.

 

[3point14]

Whatever else is in store, absolutely zero concessions should be made to the UK. Zero. Out means out. Totally out. Not at the table, no voice, gone, a non-entity internally, and a foreign power with no special standing of any kind. As a fellow NATO member, same relations as with, say, Turkey, another non-EU member.

Seems reasonable.

Also, time to replace the UK on the UN Security Council. Replacing the UK and France with the EU and, say, India would make a lot more sense, especially since the UK speaks only for itself now and cannot be said to responsibly exercise regional leadership.

Seems much less reasonable.

 

[Francesca R]

Whatever else is in store, absolutely zero concessions should be made to the UK. Zero. Out means out. Totally out.

The EU will respond to the UK's exit in line with what it thinks is its collective best interest, which may break down to the best interests of the biggest constituent members which themselves may only be partly aligned.

While there is an incentive to play hard-ball "pour encourager les autres" there is also likely to be at least some recognition that the appearance of this might have the opposite of any desired effect on populist groundswell in other EU countries.

In other words "Project Threat" may have a similar impact to "Project Fear"

 

[kevsta]

A lot? You're overselling them. As for Spain and Greece, the only thing keeping them alive is EU and Euro. Should they lose it, then they are nothing but black hole. Already twice there were rumors they would exit Euro. Twice there was massive exit of capital. Their "currencies" wouldn't be even worth the paper wasted on them. (And electronic bits wouldn't fare any better)

Hmm. not so sure, IMO both need to (exit and) devalue their new currencies, and take the medicine (pain) to get out of this, it will never happen while head-locked into the EU's continuing downward debt spiral.

IMO it's just not sustainable for Greece & Germany to use the same currency forever, so they wont.

 

[Degeneve]

The UK will probably try to negotiate the conditions of the exit and new relations with the EU in one single package.

I however doubt that the member States of the EU agree on this principle. I think they will rather impose a negotiation on the exit conditions first and a negotiation on the relations between the UK and the UE as a second step.

The whole process could furthermore become even more complicated (if possible) if Scotland votes for its independency and applies for membership of the EU even before the UK exit from the EU is officialy enacted.

 

[Norman Alexander]

The next step will be flooding the chunnel...

No, they will stop the trains coming in at about half way, and a guy with a clippy-thing will go through the train and clip all the tickets. And they won't start moving again until he finishes the whole train. Because they don't want Johnny foreigner sneaking in disguised as a train passenger! (He should be disguised as a Muslim extremist.)

 

[elgarak]

Whatever else is in store, absolutely zero concessions should be made to the UK. Zero. Out means out. Totally out. Not at the table, no voice, gone, a non-entity internally, and a foreign power with no special standing of any kind. As a fellow NATO member, same relations as with, say, Turkey, another non-EU member.

Agreed.

Also, time to replace the UK on the UN Security Council. Replacing the UK and France with the EU and, say, India would make a lot more sense, especially since the UK speaks only for itself now and cannot be said to responsibly exercise regional leadership.

Not so easy. The UK is a big military power. However, if they are economically able to maintain that remains to be seen.

And they have nukes.