Merged Now What?

[McHrozni]

They treated the public like idiots and rightly faced the backlash.

The British people have had enough of experts!

The most certain way to success is to ignore, and preferably shoot, all disagreeing experts. That worked splendidly in the Soviet Union!

McHrozni

 

[Airfix]

It's actually you that don't understand what you're talking about.

You're mistaken. It is you who doesn't understand.

I guess what you understand least is that modern Euroskepticism in Britain properly kicked off in 1990 when the Maastricht Treaty debate started and Margaret Thatcher was ousted by Europhiles for refusing to sign it.
And then Black Wednesday happened, Britain crashed out of the ERM and went into recession.

The economists who advised John Major's government had said we needed to be in the ERM, the reverse turned out to be true.

The economists who advised Tony Blair said we needed to be in the Euro, again they were wrong.
Nissan said they'd consider pulling out of Britain if we didn't join it. They didn't pull out.

Trust in the EU has never recovered and with every bit of additional federalism and scaremongering about the outcome of not accepting federalism, they lose more support. They've lost over 50% of the population's support and lost the in out referendum.

Now you ask an interesting question here:

I usually find questions to be the best answer to such gridlock. Where does Nissan UK source it's car components from?

Mostly the North East, but also Johnson controls in Germany (for dashboard instruments) the supply chain is mapped here: http://www.thejournal.co.uk/business/business-news/mapped-nissans-supply-chain-huge-7254559

Most of the world is not integrated in the EU

That is because no country needs to be integrated into the EU to have free trade with it.

Ideological federalism is the biggest problem with this supranational clique.

They regard the nation state as bad, but they're trying to create a new federal nation.

They regard protectionism as bad, but paradoxically practice protectionism towards the rest of the world (except for countries which have free trade agreements with it).

They regard state aid as bad, but paradoxically practice it through C.A.P. subsidies.

They regard free movement as a fundamental freedom but do not apply that principle to the rest of the world.

We don't need to surrender sovereignty in order to trade with other countries, to accept immigrants or to participate in scientific research.

 

[ddt]

Are you checking your family tree for an Irish grandparent?

Already asked and answered.

 

[McHrozni]

I guess what you understand least is that modern Euroskepticism in Britain properly kicked off in 1990 when the Maastricht Treaty debate started and Margaret Thatcher was ousted by Europhiles for refusing to sign it.
And then Black Wednesday happened, Britain crashed out of the ERM and went into recession.

The Black Wednesday was a result of a series of missteps by British politicians that went unaddressed for a decade, not a result of the ERM. If it was a result of the ERM, you would expect the same result in other countries as well.

In short, a British failure is blamed on EU. How very Brexitardish

Mostly the North East, but also Johnson controls in Germany (for dashboard instruments) the supply chain is mapped here: http://www.thejournal.co.uk/business/business-news/mapped-nissans-supply-chain-huge-7254559

If this went one more step back, it would be all over Europe and beyond. It's not like this would be all unaffected, as Brexitards postulate.

They regard free movement as a fundamental freedom but do not apply that principle to the rest of the world.

The rest are just ideological drivel, but this one is a WTF moment. What do you mean by this anyway?

We don't need to surrender sovereignty in order to trade with other countries, to accept immigrants or to participate in scientific research.

Two Brexitard lies in one sentence. That's beyond the usual level.

The first lie is that the people surrender sovereignty at all. It's actually member states that surrender sovereignty to the EU, the people have exactly as much sovereignty as before - they gain sovereignty in EU institutions instead. In order to claim anyone loses sovereignty you must simultaneously claim the sovereignty lies with the state and not the people. This is mutually exclusive with democracy and puts you in the same boat as North Korea.

The second lie is the hint that anyone says you need to be integrated with the EU to trade with it, to accept immigrants or to participate in scientific research. Of course yo can do all of those, but in the same sense as Nick Vujicic can participate in a marathon race.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Are you checking your family tree for an Irish grandparent?

I have an Italian paternal grandfather but because he became a naturalised US citizen as an infant I am ineligible for Italian citizenship through the paternal line

 

[catsmate]

I have an Italian paternal grandfather but because he became a naturalised US citizen as an infant I am ineligible for Italian citizenship through the paternal line

Well I'm sure we'd still let you live here...

 

[Aber]

The Black Wednesday was a result of a series of missteps by British politicians that went unaddressed for a decade, not a result of the ERM. If it was a result of the ERM, you would expect the same result in other countries as well.

In short, a British failure is blamed on EU. How very Brexitardish

ERM for Britain resulted in a large gap between the interest rates needed to maintain the ERM exchange rates, and that needed for the British economy - the issue was setting a (fixed) exchange rate at the wrong level.

Greece has ended up with problems because it entered the euro at the wrong exchange rate and has no exit option like Britain did.

 

[Klimax]

ERM for Britain resulted in a large gap between the interest rates needed to maintain the ERM exchange rates, and that needed for the British economy - the issue was setting a (fixed) exchange rate at the wrong level.

Greece has ended up with problems because it entered the euro at the wrong exchange rate and has no exit option like Britain did.

Re Greece. No. They got into big problems by fraudulent accounting, various bad policies and Olympics.

 

[The Don]

Michael O'Leary's "considered" view on Brexit:

Those fe**ing halfwits, who haven't a clue what they're trying to do, will come back with the tail between their legs"

The quote is from a third party tweet on the BBC.

Ryanair will be basing planes outside the UK come Brexit:

http://news.sky.com/story/ryanair-chief-oleary-calls-brexit-politicians-headless-chickens-10568848

Ryanair will base all 50 of its new planes outside the UK because the airline has "much more political certainty in continental Europe" after the Brexit vote.

Chief executive Michael O'Leary said the politicians who are now working on taking the UK out of the European Union are "headless chickens" who have "no idea where they're going to finish up".

so more moderate language there

 

[Craig B]

... Have you already done some genealogical research?

In my case, yes; and I have received a copy of my Irish-born grandmother's birth certificate from the Irish civil registry in Roscommon.

 

[McHrozni]

ERM for Britain resulted in a large gap between the interest rates needed to maintain the ERM exchange rates, and that needed for the British economy - the issue was setting a (fixed) exchange rate at the wrong level.

A set of missteps by British politicians who then blamed the EU for their own failures is an adequate description.

McHrozni

 

[Airfix]

The Black Wednesday was a result of a series of missteps by British politicians that went unaddressed for a decade, not a result of the ERM

Hahahahaa!!
Surely you can't be serious? !!!!

The only missteps made were joining it, and remaining in it too long.

ERM has never worked. Dissimilar economies are not compatible and we're still seeing that with struggling Eurozone members who cannot do the kind of thing Iceland was able to do (currency devaluation).

 

[McHrozni]

The only missteps made were joining it, and remaining in it too long.

If that were true the same thing would've happened in all other countries in ERM. Either ERM wasn't the cause at all, or you have a whole lot more of explaining to do.

ERM has never worked. Dissimilar economies are not compatible and we're still seeing that with struggling Eurozone members who cannot do the kind of thing Iceland was able to do (currency devaluation).

Really? Please explain how very similar the economies of Cornwall and central Wales are to that of London. Either you again have a whole lot more explaining to do again, or you're spouting nonesense, again. I bet it's the latter.

The problem with EMU is that it needs a political union to work well. You paint it as some sort of ideological thing, but it's not.

McHrozni

 

[CoolSceptic]

Did you find those quotes of what Carney predicted and when?

This is interesting. I linked you to an FT article which gave all the quotes, and even cut a bit out for you to save you chasing down the article. I've given you the evidence - why are you so desperate to pretend it doesn't exist? Curious.

You didn't really answer my question previously as to what your argument actually is.

I have outlined my argument quite clearly. You are going to considerable lengths not to understand it. It really isn't terribly difficult to follow.

People asked for examples of failed expert predictions.

I provided an expert prediction, a direct claim from Carney with a credible reference (the FT) of him saying it.

I observed this didn't appear to be the case from anecdotal evidence. However, I've since got more evidence - a list of mortgage rate cuts from lenders (graphic courtesy of Szu Ping Chan)

So we now have clear and unambiguous evidence of a project fear "expert" prediction which was utterly wrong. This isn't an isolated example, but if remainers are in denial over this one clear and well evidenced example then I don't see much point in continuing discussion. You are immune to actual evidence.

If you do then do you also agree that those things that happen can and will have effects that last longer than 6 months? And that if the effects are predictable and last longer than 6 months it's possible to make sensible statements about effects beyond 6 months?

You really don't understand the concept of models, do you? Yes of course things can have long lasting effect. But those effects are not meaningfully predictable by a model. This is not controversial amongst the scientific / mathematical community.

Yes something else might happen to the economy to make things worse or better but that doesn't mean the original effect isn't there.

No, this is a simple error on your part. This only applies to linear systems, where effects can be separated in the way you describe. It does not apply to non-linear systems like the economy.

If you really think economic predictions are pointless beyond 6 months then you are basically arguing that we should ignore any economic argument for any decision ever.

Ah, I've got it! The argument of bizarre absolute guy:
Bizarre Absolute Guy

Seriously, is this supposed to be a sceptics forum? Three to six month ahead predictions are actually quite useful, for example, when objectively attempting to manage inflation through monetary policy. But not according to bizarre absolute guy! Wow.

 

[Spanx]

Everything is great, we are leaving the EU. We have no trade deals, have not negotiated with the EU and have no plan. Everybody likes the game of poker we are playing.

I'll order the flags and start arranging the street party for next week. If anyone wants to contribute please pay in € or $.

 

[cullennz]

You haven't even signed yet.

Your still in the EU

Grow a pair if you are serious

 

[Airfix]

If that were true the same thing would've happened in all other countries in ERM.

The same thing has happened in other countries in ERM. Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy which are all now struggling.
But because they're in the Euro, they cannot come out of ERM.

It happens because different national economies are pulling in different directions, growing / shrinking at different rates and one size does not fit all.

Monetary union cannot work well without political and tax union (like we've have had in the UK for centuries).
And whilst the EU desires political and tax union, it's not quite there yet and has lost the popular argument for a federalised European superstate.

 

[Airfix]

This is interesting. I linked you to an FT article which gave all the quotes, and even cut a bit out for you to save you chasing down the article. I've given you the evidence - why are you so desperate to pretend it doesn't exist? Curious.


I have outlined my argument quite clearly. You are going to considerable lengths not to understand it. It really isn't terribly difficult to follow.

People asked for examples of failed expert predictions.

I provided an expert prediction, a direct claim from Carney with a credible reference (the FT) of him saying it.

I observed this didn't appear to be the case from anecdotal evidence. However, I've since got more evidence - a list of mortgage rate cuts from lenders (graphic courtesy of Szu Ping Chan)
[qimg]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Crwh2jxW8AI6Ef5.jpg:large[/qimg]

So we now have clear and unambiguous evidence of a project fear "expert" prediction which was utterly wrong. This isn't an isolated example, but if remainers are in denial over this one clear and well evidenced example then I don't see much point in continuing discussion. You are immune to actual evidence.


You really don't understand the concept of models, do you? Yes of course things can have long lasting effect. But those effects are not meaningfully predictable by a model. This is not controversial amongst the scientific / mathematical community.


No, this is a simple error on your part. This only applies to linear systems, where effects can be separated in the way you describe. It does not apply to non-linear systems like the economy.


Ah, I've got it! The argument of bizarre absolute guy:
Bizarre Absolute Guy

Seriously, is this supposed to be a sceptics forum? Three to six month ahead predictions are actually quite useful, for example, when objectively attempting to manage inflation through monetary policy. But not according to bizarre absolute guy! Wow.

Well said.

 

[McHrozni]

The same thing has happened in other countries in ERM. Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy which are all now struggling.

You keep peddling lies, I see. That this one is especially transparent (~20 years later and in a completely different situation and all that) doesn't seem to bother you at all. Are you at least getting paid for it?

It happens because different national economies are pulling in different directions, growing / shrinking at different rates and one size does not fit all.

Any economy with more than one actor has the exact same features. This is one of the stupidest anti-EMU arguments out there. Of course this is a problem. This will always be a problem, unless each economic actor uses his own currency.

That would be somewhat unwieldy to say the least.

Monetary union cannot work well without political and tax union (like we've have had in the UK for centuries).
And whilst the EU desires political and tax union, it's not quite there yet and has lost the popular argument for a federalised European superstate.

It lost the popular argument for the time being, mostly due to lies, like that "democratic deficit" nonsense or "unelected European bureaucrats" lie that you simply adore.

Winning a popular argument through lies is not an argument against something.

McHrozni

 

[Airfix]

You keep peddling lies,

What lies ?

I see. That this one is especially transparent (~20 years later and in a completely different situation and all that) doesn't seem to bother you at all. Are you at least getting paid for it?

So now you're saying Ireland, Italy, Portugal Greece and Spain are not struggling ?

Any economy with more than one actor has the exact same features.

No, the country is the 'actor'.
Every national economy has a common tax system, common interest rates, common inflation level.

Tied to another economy with a different tax system, different interest rates, different minimum wage system, different growth and a different inflation level ERM can't work.

This is one of the stupidest anti-EMU arguments out there.

No, yours is one of the stupidest PRO EMU arguments out there.

Of course this is a problem. This will always be a problem, unless each economic actor uses his own currency.

That would be somewhat unwieldy to say the least.

Each 'actor' is a nation state with it's own laws, growth rates and inflation. It makes perfect sense for each nation state to have it's own currency.

It lost the popular argument for the time being, mostly due to lies,

like that "democratic deficit"

EU Parliament is a scrutinising house, not a policy proposing house. They cannot put forward private members bills to propose policy the way MPs can. There's no cabinet of elected MEPs to govern either.

nonsense or "unelected European bureaucrats" lie that you simply adore.

EU Commissioners are appointed not elected, so what lie ?

You're the one lying. [sarcasm]are you getting paid for it?[/sarcasm]

Winning a popular argument through lies is not an argument against something.

McHrozni

Lying is not an argument against something, this is correct, so stop lying.