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Merged Now What?

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Francesca R said:
I don't think the leave campaign (read: Boris) did want that.
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Very probably. That's why I really hope Cameron ensures he gets to quaff the chalice he has poisoned.

Degeneve said:
If I am well informed Cameron could not do it without a prior vote by the Parliament requesting him to do so.
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This is incorrect. The invocation of A40 lies within the royal prerogative powers exercised by government. The UK parliament will only be involved when a treaty has been agreed and is voted upon.
It's possible that a motion calling on the PM not to invoke A50 might be passed, but it would not be binding in any way and the PM Could claim the authority of the popular vote to justify ignoring such efforts.

Hlafordlaes said:
Best case scenario shaping up in my local conversations: Scotland finally separates, the EU wisely makes sure (re)joining is painless and quick, and we get growth in Scotland and Ireland from businesses relocating there. (This, although very different a case, would be wildly cheered by the Catalans, and give greater impetus to their own efforts.) If this played out, it would act to strengthen the EU.

The home of Locke may have left (sniff), but at least that of Hume would remain.
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If Scotland manages to sever the UK ties before the UK formally leaves the EU, I believe things will be reasonably straightforward. Otherwise it'll have to apply like any other new state.
 
Ambrosia said:
Cameron is many things, but really really stupid, isn't one of them.
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This is manifestly untrue; I refer your attention to the referendum we're currently discussing.

Ambrosia said:
Once the UK invokes article 50 the clock is ticking. It's in the UK's best interests to have a period of time where we decide what the best way to go about things is before invoking the clock.
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However it's not in the best interests of the EU.

Ambrosia said:
It's in the EUs interest to fast track the UKs exit ASAP and to not give the UK good exit terms to discourage other nations from following a similar path.
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Exactly. And the EU is in the dominant position.

Ambrosia said:
this referendum isn't even legally binding. It might turn out that the government want to ignore the result. Perhaps call a general election quickly with EU membership as the main/only issue, invoking article 50 is the point of no return, we're leaving, it's official, so there's no real need to rush to go do that the day after the polls close.
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Possible but unlikely in the extreme. I could see a petition for a second referendum based on the gross ignorance of the voters and the lies spread by the Leave advocates.
On that note I see Farage has disowned his £350M for the NHS pledge...
 
Jules Galen said:
I'm confident that once the Hysteria is over, the Pound will recover and within a year it will be as if the Brexit never happened. However, the real and significant consequences of Brexit won't be felt until about 10 years from now.
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Curiously actual economists disagree with your views.

Jules Galen said:
Within 10 years, the movement of manufacturing firms from the EU to the UK will have longed stopped and whatever EU Manufacturing firms are left in the UK will not be expanding, but instead seeking to expand in eastern Europe. For the next few years, there will be enough Sunset Rules to insure that goods flow freely and cheaply between Britain and the EU, but as these Sunset Rules expire, no new rules will be put in place. As Manufacturing in the UK slowly fades away, the country becomes ever-more Financialized until it is just one big Real Estate Bizzare and Bank chocked full of Debtors.

As a result, the UK won't collapse, it will just slowly eat itself over the next 20 years as every value-added industry leaves it and all they are left with is Real Estate, Insurance and Finance - a typical FIRE Economy.
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Reasonably probably. Though I suspect it'll be rather faster and larger in scope as many firms are located in the UK to be within the EU.
 
Darat said:
Nope, the UK parliament is preeminent in regards to constitutional matters.

I really don't understand what the grounds are for seeking a second independence referendum. The EU remain or leave was a UK issue and all votes carried the same importance.
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The grounds are there is an SNP government in Scotland committed to independence and this gives them an excuse for a redo referendum (or neverendum).

Certainly if the economy goes down, this may shift the majority in Scotland to pro-independence. They will argue that Scotland will remain in the EU and England has voted for independence. I suspect that Scotland will try for independence in 2017, with the intent that they can just remain in the EU effectively under present deal. Scotland will decide on the Euro (as Ireland has), and be outside of the Shengan area (as Ireland is). I think that a repeat referendum will be pro-independence. So Brexit will lead to the break up of the UK.
 
lionking said:
IIRC people in Northern Ireland of Irish descent (ie the vast majority) have the right to Republic citizenship even if they remain in NI. Expect a very large surge of new Republic citizens.
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The Passport Office has already seen a surge in requests for information and applications. In fact a new batch of paper forms has been ordered...

FYI here is a precis of the guidelines:
Irish citizenship through birth or descent
 
Don't forget that the European parliament and Commission is breaking up for its summer holidays now anyway, at much the same time as the British parliament, so the chances of doing any substantive work on the divorce settlement is approaching nil. This "do it now" stuff is just posturing.
 
lionking said:
Completely off topic, but if Australia's government is returned next month there will be a plebiscite on gay marriage. We will see irrational excuses for people voting no.
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Yes we saw that last year.
 
kevsta said:
......... I would say that happening is 50/50 at best.........to be honest I did think they would rig the process before this point, to never show a vote the wrong way, but there's plenty of opportunity for this not to happen yet. Plenty.
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Rather than just saying "ridiculous", I'll ask you for evidence that there is any sort of move to ignore the referendum. Is anyone in public life calling for such a thing? Is anyone even postulating on ways it might be done?
 
catsmate said:
I believe it's within the scope of the commission, supported by a qualified majority, to declare that the referendum is de-facto invocation of A50.
Why should they wait on the UK to get it's act together?
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I'm not sure they can, but if this were to be accurate, the UK could do 2 things - 1. empty chair all unanimity votes on other matters so the EU is frozen on them.
2. apply to the ECJ to challenge it legally. That'd probably take more than 2 years to sort out, by which time we'd have submitted the A50 notification and it would be easier to drop the 'early' legislation.

Much easier to posture now, enjoy the summer holiday and pick up in October.
 
Ambrosia said:
hyperbole much?



Cameron is many things, but really really stupid, isn't one of them.

Once the UK invokes article 50 the clock is ticking. It's in the UK's best interests to have a period of time where we decide what the best way to go about things is before invoking the clock.

The EU can wait until we're good and ready. If it were as good as it thinks that it is then the UK wouldn't have got 17m+ Leave votes.

It's in the EUs interest to fast track the UKs exit ASAP and to not give the UK good exit terms to discourage other nations from following a similar path.

this referendum isn't even legally binding. It might turn out that the government want to ignore the result. Perhaps call a general election quickly with EU membership as the main/only issue, invoking article 50 is the point of no return, we're leaving, it's official, so there's no real need to rush to go do that the day after the polls close.
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I agree with most of the above.
Cameron was smart in immediately saying 'nothing changes for the next 3 months' so the markets can settle down and people have a breather, and people can think what the consequences are.

I agree the democratic way forward is to call an election to elect a government to do the withdrawal negotiation - further delay. (There seems little advantage in hurrying into this - negotiating teams need to be drawn up, rules of engagement etc. meanwhile the UK remains in the EU).

An elected government could promise a redo referendum on the precise terms of withdrawal, taking the first as a vote on the principle.

Of course this is just wishful thinking as I think this is the most unbelievably stupid thing. I voted to keep London in the EU, and just wish London could become a city-state and remain in the EU and as a bridge to a non EU E&W.
 
catsmate said:
Curiously actual economists disagree with your views.
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given "actual economists" success rates in predictions, taking the opposite view to them is statistically a pretty good bet.

actual economists have been confidently predicting Twelve out of the last One Fed Interest rate rises for several years now. they are all actually wrong.

also actual economists mostly have a vested interest in their findings, and most especially so pre-vote.

many such "Remain" scare stories are being dialled back towards reality too
 
MikeG said:
Rather than just saying "ridiculous", I'll ask you for evidence that there is any sort of move to ignore the referendum. Is anyone in public life calling for such a thing? Is anyone even postulating on ways it might be done?
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:) you mean publicly? because of course that is where it would be discussed and planned by high level dissenters.. ?

No. apart from the petition, and press belittling of Leavers as stupid racists who shouldn't have ever even had the chance to vote, I have no evidence.

But I do not think it is settled and over by a long way either.
 
catsmate said:
I believe it's within the scope of the commission, supported by a qualified majority, to declare that the referendum is de-facto invocation of A50.
Why should they wait on the UK to get it's act together?
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I think it's in the scope of the Council rather than in the scope of the Commission. Article 50 of the Treaty provides that a withdrawal notification must be made in hands of the Council and not the Commission : http://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/withdrawal_clause.html?locale=en
 
I believe the best answer to "Whay Now?" is Scalzi's:
John Scalzi said:
So, the pound has crashed to a 30 year low, trading was halted on the Japanese stock market, other markets are plunging, David Cameron is resigning, Scotland wants another independence referendum, Sinn Fein is pushing for Irish reunification, Nigel Farage went on TV and said, basically, “Hey, remember when we said we were gonna put that EU money into our health service? We lied,” and the EU is saying to the UK, you want out, fine, but let’s make this quick. Yup, welcome to Brexit!
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Fairly quick trade agreement which will be crap for the UK but loses a lot of the immigration problems
 
catsmate said:
Possible but unlikely in the extreme. I could see a petition for a second referendum based on the gross ignorance of the voters and the lies spread by the Leave advocates.
On that note I see Farage has disowned his £350M for the NHS pledge...
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I have read yesterday that such a petition was running and had already gathered 130000 signatures, but I don't know to which extend this is true and, if true, whether this could have a real incidence on the whole Brexit process.

Not sure one could find a UK government willing to start a new referendum process...
 
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