North Korea cancels truce

The Japanese -- for all the Shinto temple tempests -- are very sensitive about Korea and the North in Particular. There's a large Korean population that lives in Japan that continues to send money, etc. to the North, and even with all of the current todo, the Japanese have yet to cut that tie to the North for fear of being provocative.

I keep coming back to two major points that will cause the North, eventually to back down. First, they can't do much without China's support...and you have to go a long way right now to believe that China wants to get into it (i.e. essentially a war with the U.S.) over Korea.

Second, North Korea has very limited resources for an invasion. Without massive resupply by China and Russia (a'la their support for the North's invasion that started the Korean War), the North simply can't sustain a push south for very long. For example, they have very limited fuel supplies...so unless they are able to strike a knock-out blow (by surprise), any push south that lasts more than a couple of days is likely to run into huge re-supply problems for the North (not to mention desertion rates once the bulk of the Army -- the troops not accorded special priviledge by the regime -- get a look at the lie that they've been fed about conditions in the South).

And, it is difficult to see how they would score such a surprise given that both the US and the South are currently on high alert...and, for example, once troops were seen moving across the boarder...while it is farther away, Pyongyang is in easy distance for missles and an air attack...while Soeul will suffer...so too will Pyongyang, it will essentially disapear.

Anyway, North Korea wants something or is doing this for internal reasons, it is hard to see why they would commit institutional suicide right now.
 
gumboot said:
Cellphones are entirely useless unless you have cellphone towers. Does North Korea even have a 3G or GSM mobile network?

Or would we parachute in the cellphone towers as well, with little generators attached? :rolleyes:
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It is to my understanding that certain higher-ups in the government have cellphones. I found this article from back in December about how an Egyptian company was planning on setting up some infrastructure in Pyongyang.
 
Anyway, North Korea wants something or is doing this for internal reasons, it is hard to see why they would commit institutional suicide right now. [/quote.]
In which case they should not get what they want. I am tired of being blackmailed by these bozos.
If done for internal purposes, they should be ignored.
You are probably right, but there is also the small but real chance that elements in the government have decided that the country is near a state of collapse, will take the regime with it, and that the only chance they have is a takeover of South Korea. Totally irrational, but assuming rationality on the part of the NK Government is a very big assumption IMHO.
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But, they can't take over South Korea. THey can, if crazy, cause a lot of damage and kill a lot of people, but South Korea isn't some fat sitting duck. It has a well equipped, modern army that is currently on alert. It has the U.S. as an ally (which may even have nukes on the Peninsula). It has a superior air force. It has superior supplies and supply lines. It has superior miliatry supply lines. They are better fed. They have 30 million more people than the North. Whatever else is going on, about the only thing the North can accomplish is to create terrible havock and murder on a large scale, but it is essentially impossible for the North to win and reunify the country on its terms. The only way the North would even have a chance is if they had the full support and complete cooperation of the Chinese, and given that the Chinese own the US, right now, they've no interest in the US being involved in a land war on their boarder or a country that boarders China.

My point is, there's a lot of hand wringing and understandable outrage about the crazy North Koreans, but keep in mind that their strategy in the past has always been about maintaining the regime. Why would you assume that it changes now? And, if the strategy is about maintainning the regime, it is a goal that even they must recognize can not be accomplished by an invasion of the South...especially an invasion that both the South and the US are on alert for.
 
dudalb said:
You are probably right, but there is also the small but real chance that elements in the government have decided that the country is near a state of collapse, will take the regime with it, and that the only chance they have is a takeover of South Korea.
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Unlikely, but even assuming that's the case, I see very little that can be done about it. South Korea already has such military and logistical superiority over the North, if that's insufficient deterrent, nothing will deter them.

I place this in the category of 'unlikely events, whose likelyhood is beyond our control', which means they're best ignored from a rational POV.

Just maintain existing readiness and superiority, and get on with business as usual.
 
I wonder what 50 years of propaganda and malnutrition will do to a population education wise?
 
applecorped said:
North Korea


THE SEVEN COMMANDMENTS

1. Whatever goes upon two legs is an enemy.
2. Whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings, is a friend.
3. No animal shall wear clothes.
4. No animal shall sleep in a bed.
5. No animal shall drink alcohol.
6. No animal shall kill any other animal.
7. All animals are equal (but some are more equal than others).

- George Orwell
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Pretty much.
 
When I was a kid, I had a toy motorcycle I rode around that I called "the Big-Un." I thought it was the coolest thing ever.

Who would have thought "the Big-Un" would be back in dictator form all these years later.
 
Pardalis said:
That's why I'm more worried NK will go Tchernobyl than make an actual nuclear strike.
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Yes, they could...assuming some sort of accuracy and reliabilty of their device. But the question I've got is why doesn't MAD apply to them? They are not apocolyptic...in spite of the rhetoric. What they are after is security for the regime, first and foremost, the other goals...like reunification... are more visionary than realistic. Survival of the regime means winning concessions from their enemies and support from their friends...the only one they've left with any real power is China and it could get very bored with this government. Lobbing a bomb in to the South, Japan or even the US will bring about the immediate and total distruction of the the North. Not a surgical strike, mind you, a wipe-out.

As I think BSPG (Sorry if I mis-remembered you initials!) made the more important point, if they've got Nuclear technology, they will want to sell it for cash. At the same time, that is something China is going to take a very dim view of. As now a prominent member of the nuclear club, China can't see nuclear proliferation as a good thing...it wants to be one of the few countries controlling it...so, I think, ultiately they will clamp down on the North.

More and more, pieces seem to be falling into place that suggest that this is all about a possible future succession of Kim's younger son. Prior to Kim being elevated by his own father, he was "put in charge" of a period of "struggle" to "prove" his merit. It is looking like Kim #3 is being pushed forward in a similar manner...and there is an effort to get NK foriegn Service and military representatives to swear alliegence to Kim #3 & #2. That would make this billigerence part of a bigger picture of proving that Kim 2&3 are proponents of what they call the "Army First" strategy...which elevates the Army and its needs as the most important institution in the country. There's got to be a passle of senior military men there someone concered about a sickly "Great Leader" and young "Commander Kim" known to have a drinking problem.

In any event, it would seem that so long as regime survival is the key to understanding what is going on there... other than the annoyance value, there is little, IMO, to worry about. Again, the South and US are on high alert and while they may not have great intelligence about the inner-workings of the NK state, they've got sattilites pictures that can tell them about troop movements, etc. ANd, the only way the NK could even hope to win is a quick, overwhelming surprise invasion that catches the South completely off-gaurd (and that has the blessing of China -- in which case we're all screwed). There is no possiblility just now that they could surprise either the South or Us.
 
The UN Just passed tougher sanctions against NK. Interesting to see what the reaction will be.
I got the feeling that almost everybody now feels that Negotiating with NK is a waste of time becuase they simply cannot be trusted to abide by any agreement they make. Their history of siging agreements, then breaking them a year or so later when the heat is off is finally cathching up to them.
IMHO this is going to get very ugly.
 
I just finished Charles Jenkins' (one of the American defectors to North Korea) story "The Reluctant Communist." It was fairly interesting until the very end when his claims that he didn't (and doesn't) receive any special treatment by the U.S. military or Japanese government started to stretch credibility.

Here's something else I found online about an English language editor who worked revising political propaganda in North Korea for a year. It's a bit dated but also interesting in parts:

http://www.aidanfc.net/a_year_in_pyongyang.html
 
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