Merged New telepathy test: which number did I write ?

[Giordano]

I really do not want "to pull Michel H's chain" so other than help him/her devise a good test, so I have generally not participated here.

But in the interest of devising a good test, let me ask Michel H: what would you consider in advance a result that would disprove your telepathy theory? This should help in creating a good test. Just come up with a test that would provide a result that, considered and written down in advance, would, at least theoretically, disprove or prove your telepathy. No post hoc interpretation, decoding, or enigma interpretation required or allowed.

I personally like the idea of selecting from a large number of possibilities to give it statistical weight and to eliminate the effect of dishonest people. I like the idea of having everyone just select a number from 1000000 to 10,000,000. If Michel H is concerned that these large numbers may be confusing, then just have him randomly select a number from 1 to 4, but to do that 6 times for 6 different "send" numbers. Then some trustworthy receiver should easily and consistently come up with the correct 6 digits of the combined numbers sent. The dishonest guesses will just disappear in the noise...

 

[TheSapient]

Hey Michel,

I have a question for you. How do you go about NOT thinking about the numbers you did not pick? These tests go on for days and weeks. How do you manage to not think about any other number during this time period?

 

[Michel H]

Hey Michel,

I have a question for you. How do you go about NOT thinking about the numbers you did not pick? These tests go on for days and weeks. How do you manage to not think about any other number during this time period?

Well, I said in the OP:

...
At about 2:25 p.m. on this Friday April 11 (Brussels, Belgium time), I wrote carefully one of the four numbers: "1", "2", "3", "4" on my sheet of paper, and I surrounded it with a circle. Then, I wrote it again twice.

I shall repeat this number from time to time during this test.
...

The number ("2" in this test) was selected in this way. Here is a photo of the paper I used:

 

[ComfySlippers]

Being obsessed with number twos is unhealthy.

 

[Michel H]

Being obsessed with number twos is unhealthy.

I am not obsessed with number two's, I wrote "two"s several times, because I wanted this test to be successful.

 

[Akhenaten]

Being obsessed with number twos is unhealthy.

I am not obsessed with number two's, I wrote "two"s several times, because I wanted this test to be successful.

I'm number oneing myself.

 

[ComfySlippers]

As a previous poster has stated, it's awkward dealing with someone who has had their sense of humour removed.

Hopefully my Credibility Rating will now be 42.
Or -42 depending on M's mood.
I'd like it to be 82, but I could be lying.

 

[SezMe]

I am not obsessed with number two's, I wrote "two"s several times, because I wanted this test to be successful.

I just came back from having a very satisfying number two. I have a smile on my face. When, Michel, did you last have a big grin?

 

[Loss Leader]

I was able to run a test without credibility ratings. What did you think of my test, Michel?

 

[Michel H]

...
Actually, I just want to point out how easy it is to do this stupid test right.
...

I was able to run a test without credibility ratings. What did you think of my test, Michel?

Well, I think you got the expected result

 

[oody]

I'm no statistician, and what I'm about to suggest may well demonstrate that, but:

1. Noah Fence arguably met or beat 1000:1 odds

2. Since about 100 guesses were entered, the overall odds met or beaten were more like 10:1

3. If Loss Leader could repeat this result of beating 10:1 odds broadcasting to JREFers, a half dozen to a dozen times in a row

4. He could win a million dollars from James Randi

 

[Akhenaten]

Well, I think you got the expected result

As have you.

 

[Femke]

Hey Michel,

I have a question for you. How do you go about NOT thinking about the numbers you did not pick? These tests go on for days and weeks. How do you manage to not think about any other number during this time period?

Well, I said in the OP:

The number ("2" in this test) was selected in this way. Here is a photo of the paper I used:

Michel, this was not an answer to the question. TheSapient did not ask you how you selected the number, s/he wanted to know how you managed to _not_ think of any other number during the test.
Even if you only once thought: 'Three euros was cheap!' or 'I missed the news at one o'clock', you might inadvertently project that number to any receivers.

How did you make sure you only thought of your number and not of any other number?

 

[Akhenaten]

He adopts a single-minded fourier approach, in triplicate.

 

[Michel H]

Michel, this was not an answer to the question. TheSapient did not ask you how you selected the number, s/he wanted to know how you managed to _not_ think of any other number during the test.
Even if you only once thought: 'Three euros was cheap!' or 'I missed the news at one o'clock', you might inadvertently project that number to any receivers.

How did you make sure you only thought of your number and not of any other number?

I don't project just numbers; as a telepath, I project whole ideas. The idea "I should listen to the one o'clock news" is different from "I should repeat once again Randi's number...where is it again?...ah, here...on the paper...I see it... my two...I'll write it again...ok... 2, with the circle..."

 

[Akhenaten]

I don't project just numbers; as a telepath, I project whole ideas.

The evidence says that you aren't a telepath and that you project nothing.

The idea "I should listen to the one o'clock news" is different from "I should repeat once again Randi's number...where is it again?...ah, here...on the paper...I see it... my two...I'll write it again...ok... 2, with the circle..."

Well then, next time you attempt one of these silly test you should ask people to guess what idea it is that you're transmitting, rather than just guess a number.

That would be much more rigorous.

 

[Loss Leader]

Well, I think you got the expected result

Dear lord, that's not how science works.


ETA: Why didn't you offer a guess?

 

[Akhenaten]

Because to do so would be to acknowledge the possibility that his Awesome Powerz aren't unique.

"I don't know" is just a de facto way of saying "You aren't transmitting anything because you're not a powerful telepath like I am".

 

[Femke]

I don't project just numbers; as a telepath, I project whole ideas. The idea "I should listen to the one o'clock news" is different from "I should repeat once again Randi's number...where is it again?...ah, here...on the paper...I see it... my two...I'll write it again...ok... 2, with the circle..."

Why would it be different? But since it is your ability, I'll grant you that you know it better than I do.

Wouldn't it be far better then, to project a thought in stead of a number?
If you project a word, or an idea and we would write that down if we receive it, wouldn't that be marvelous? I'd be most impressed if any of us would write down a word that you projected, without mentioning it in a thread, of course, and without refitting words afterwards.

 

[Michel H]

Why would it be different? But since it is your ability, I'll grant you that you know it better than I do.

Wouldn't it be far better then, to project a thought in stead of a number?
If you project a word, or an idea and we would write that down if we receive it, wouldn't that be marvelous? I'd be most impressed if any of us would write down a word that you projected, without mentioning it in a thread, of course, and without refitting words afterwards.

If I try to project a "thought", or an idea, it will be difficult to determine exactly when an answer is a hit, and when it is a miss (it is easier when the target is a number). I tried to use words recently in another test (on another forum), but the results were not good, words may be less "neutral" than numbers, people might answer the word they "like best", or they feel is the most "appropriate". Also, numbers may seem more "scientific", which may give an psychological advantage in a scientific experiment. Also, with numbers, I can say "numerical correctness".