Merged New telepathy test: which number did I write ?

[xtifr]

Michel if I was you I'd stop the test and use a larger spread of numbers (say from -infinity to +infinity) in order to remove the participants guessing correctly through chance alone. As it stands, we can expect 25% of people to guess correctly the number so I don't see what it proves other than that with favourable odds people are going to come up trumps.

Actually, people are terrible random number generators, so the highlighted part is incorrect. When asked to choose a number in a given range, they will almost never pick the extremes (1 and 4 in this case). Also, people generally think odd numbers are "more random", so 3 is likely to be the most chosen number.

Of course, the audience here contains a high number of skeptics, many of whom will be aware of this, and may deliberately pick 1 or 4 (or even 2) just to avoid the effect. Really, there's no way this test can produce anything resembling meaningful results, except, perhaps to demonstrate to Michel that his concept of trying to judge "good" answers is ridiculous. But I'm not holding my breath on that.

 

[Michel H]

So why did you think "Perhaps five or six valid answers would be a good number"? You obviously know statistics well enough to know that five or six answers would be completely and unmistakably meaningless in such a test as this one.

Don't confuse "valid answers" with "correct answers". A valid answer in this test (to which I would personally give a positive credibility rating) is, for exemple.

I really think you wrote and circled a xx on your paper. You repeated the number. And I believe in telepathy.

Full answer (with "xx" replaced by the actual number) sent to Agatha.

The MD5 hash of a complicated sentence containing my chosen number is:
178c5289e774fff7534a75ffcd8d31a1.
I should reveal this sentence, together with the number, later in this test thread.

But, in this answer, the (actual) number given is not necessarily correct.

An invalid answer would be, for exemple:

3, 3 again

This answer is not valid because the number is here explicitly given ("3" has not been replaced by "xx")

 

[Akhenaten]

Don't confuse "valid answers" with "correct answers". A valid answer in this test (to which I would personally give a positive credibility rating) is, for exemple.

I really think you wrote and circled a xx on your paper. You repeated the number. And I believe in telepathy.

Full answer (with "xx" replaced by the actual number) sent to Agatha.

The MD5 hash of a complicated sentence containing my chosen number is:
178c5289e774fff7534a75ffcd8d31a1.
I should reveal this sentence, together with the number, later in this test thread.

You have got to be kidding.

This 'credibility rating' thing really takes this from being a poorly thought-out test and turns it into a complete farce.


"And I believe in telepathy."

Really???

 

[Michel H]

Actually, I am still a bit confused by the protocol. If I sent a single, unambiguous number to Agatha, what is gained by the hash ? If I tried to change my response, wouldn't Agatha be able to point out that I was violating the rules?

When you have posted a hash, your answer is "frozen", it can no longer be changed. So, even if your mood changes, or your opinion about me changes, (or you've seen my number after I have posted it), you cannot change your (numeric) answer any more, and the number you'll reveal later should be equal to the number you decided when you wrote your text. I believe this is of some importance, for a serious and rigorous text.

You can, however, change your answer (to replace it by a more credible one, for exemple). In such a case, just send it to Agatha, and mention it's your new answer, which cancels and replaces the previous one.

 

[Michel H]

Also, Michel H., if you don't mind answering a few questions while we wait for more responses,

Does everyone have this power and you are merely better than most?

Or are there very few people able to transmit information and you are one of them?

Or are you the only known example of someone having this power?

Or something else?

I do not think that my "telepathic property" (?) is really a "power" (I can't control it, I can't stop it, even when it gives me trouble). But I believe I tend to communicate my thoughts to others more than most people. However, in my opinion, other people can be telepathic transmitters too. Mother-child telepathy may be important when babies learn a first language. Telepathy is probably common also in the animal world.

 

[Emily's Cat]

I suspect that you are conflating telepathy with non-verbal communication.

 

[Ladewig]

Don't confuse "valid answers" with "correct answers".

Don't worry, I am not.

My point was that six valid, credible answers (even if all six include the transmitted target number) in this format is still pretty much a worthless test.

 

[fromdownunder]

When you have posted a hash, your answer is "frozen", it can no longer be changed. So, even if your mood changes, or your opinion about me changes, (or you've seen my number after I have posted it), you cannot change your (numeric) answer any more, and the number you'll reveal later should be equal to the number you decided when you wrote your text. I believe this is of some importance, for a serious and rigorous text.

You do realise that members cannot edit posts here after 60 minutes, and cannot change their answer? So how different is a post that says "3" than a post that says ## with a hash, when the post and comment that included "3" cannot be altered?

Norm

 

[Ladewig]

Michel H is right. Credibility ratings (CRs) are necessary.

I finally realized what was wrong with the last test. Michel H. went into great detail about how each response was given a credibility rating. The only thing missing from the analysis was my credibility ratings of Michel's credibility ratings.

For instance, when Michel assigned a CR of 6 to Tiktaalik (who guessed the correct number), Michel said that " I often observes it when I watch reactions on webcam girls sites." No, Michel, I am sorry but we have to call into question your credibility based on this assertion. You rated that respondent as CR = 8, but the credibility rating of your analysis is -6.

If you would like, I can produce all the notes regarding the objective credibility ratings of your objective credibility ratings, but in the interests of space, I will simply provide a summary.

Once all the numbers were totaled up, it turned out that the test responses exactly equaled what was expected by chance. The test was successful in demonstrating that no psychic power was displayed within this test.


.
I am glad I could lend my fair and unbiased analysis of your credibility ratings. I am quite sure that the test would have been useless without it.

You are welcome.

Excelsior!

 

[Michel H]

You do realise that members cannot edit posts here after 60 minutes, and cannot change their answer? So how different is a post that says "3" than a post that says ## with a hash, when the post and comment that included "3" cannot be altered?

Norm

Well, Norm, as far as security with respect to possible later changes is concerned, the two kind of answers are equivalent and satisfactory. The problem with answers where a number is explicitly written, is that this number might possibly influence (a little) my credibility rating. This has led some people to state that such an analysis would "not be valid".

 

[AdMan]

The test is a joke. It is badly designed, if somewhat better than his earlier ones, which isn't saying much at all, and displays virtually no understanding of statistics or even of the scientific method itself.

What is this supposed to prove? What's the hypothesis, if the OP even knows the meaning of the term--what exactly are we testing for? How can someone's wholly subjective "credibility rating" fit in any way in an actual scientific experiment, unless you're testing for how accurate that can be? Otherwise, it's mostly garbage.

You would find more actual science in a high school science fair.

 

[AdMan]

Hi, I invite you to participate in a new telepathy test..

Propose a proper scientific experiment, and maybe you can be taken seriously.

 

[dlorde]

You do realise that members cannot edit posts here after 60 minutes, and cannot change their answer? So how different is a post that says "3" than a post that says ## with a hash, when the post and comment that included "3" cannot be altered?

To avoid possible bias, it is generally better that other answers can't be seen until the test is complete. Although in this case I doubt it makes any difference.

 

[fagin]

xx
Which I think is 20.

 

[Iamme]

I am getting a strong inner feeling...perhaps telepathic from other members...that this thread will soon run it`s course.

 

[Michel H]

xx
Which I think is 20.

fagin, could you explain your answer a little please?
Do you understand that, in this test, "xx" must necessarily be equal to 1, or 2, or 3, or 4? Did you send your full answer to Agatha? Could you post (ideally) a MD5 hash of a complicated sentence containing your number (which you should record somewhere and post later; you may also send it to Agatha)?

 

[dafydd]

fagin, could you explain your answer a little please?
Do you understand that, in this test, "xx" must necessarily be equal to 1, or 2, or 3, or 4? Did you send your full answer to Agatha? Could you post (ideally) a MD5 hash of a complicated sentence containing your number (which you should record somewhere and post later; you may also send it to Agatha)?

Why?

 

[Akhenaten]

fagin, could you explain your answer a little please?
Do you understand that, in this test, "xx" must necessarily be equal to 1, or 2, or 3, or 4?

Nope. xx is definitely 20 and it's had me completely flummoxed from the start why you want everyone to submit that same number, even though it's not one of 1, 2, 3 or 4.

Very confusing.

 

[Michel H]

Why?

Well, fagin answered:
"xx
Which I think is 20."

This seems to indicate that his/her answer to this test, his number is "20". But this test is so designed that the answer must be 1, 2, 3 or 4. So, I ask for some explanation.
I request an elevated quality in (your answers to) this test. You demand a lot of rigor from me, but are you ready to provide the same? I ask myself this question.

 

[Akhenaten]

Well, fagin answered:
"xx
Which I think is 20."

This seems to indicate that his/her answer to this test, his number is "20". But this test is so designed that the answer must be 1, 2, 3 or 4. So, I ask for some explanation.
I request an elevated quality in (your answers to) this test. You demand a lot of rigor from me, but are you ready to provide the same? I ask myself this question.

Whoosh!