New telepathy test, the sequel.

Most advocates of the paranormal who come here to explain to us silly sceptics how close minded we're being by not accepting the reality of dowsing/astrology/mediums/homeopathy/whatever are heavily emotionally invested in their chosen belief. Yes, they are also usually profoundly ignorant of the scientific method and why it had to be invented - most have never even heard of cognitive biases - but it's their emotional investment which is almost always the greatest barrier to helping them to understand the mistake that they are making. Their belief has become part of their identity, so pointing out its irrationality (let alone mocking it, irresistable as that often is) is seen as a personal attack.

I doubt we've ever had a poster here whose emotional investment in their particular belief is greater than Michel's, for reasons we all understand and cannot discuss. He seems to have abandoned this thread again but we all know that he will probably be back for another try in a month or a year, and that we will again feel obliged to respond. We can only hope he eventually gets the help he clearly needs and deserves, despite his continuing refusal to accept ours.
 
Actually, you're being dishonest yourself about both what calwaterbear's post meant in context and what you're interpreting it as now, some eight years later.

The string of quotes were there:




So, another person claimed to have ESP and calwaterbear then did the same thing but guessed another number. In that test, did you consider RandomElement's post credible. Did you count his as a miss? Or did you discard his answer entirely?
The answers to your questions are given in the analysis of the first test done on this forum (link: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=8607740#post8607740), that you apparently didn't bother to read.
It should also be noted that many other people in that test claimed to have ESP and guessed your number was Pi to a million digits, 5, i, the word "boobies" on a calculator, and many others. These were all answers, but I assume you discarded them rather than counting them as wrong.
The rules of the game were clear:
...
So, your answer should be one of the four numbers: "1", "2", "3", "4", or "I don't know". ...


But that's not even the worst part. Calwaterbear said that he had ESP - not you, but him. He was very clear about it in a statement that you've already said was credible.

So if he, by your own standard that you applied, truthfully answered your question, how can you take it as evidence that you have ESP? He truthfully said he possessed this power, yet you've counted him as showing that you had any power. That's a lie on your part. You are lying about the plain meaning of his words.
This is really a very strange "objection". calwaterbear said:
... I do indeed have ESP, and know for a fact that he wrote 2!
When somebody says he/she has ESP, it means this person is capable of extra-sensory perception. Obviously, the two aspects (emission and reception) are complementary, and not contradictory. You can't have reception of telepathic waves if nobody emits these waves. So there was nothing wrong in calwaterbear's post.
 
When somebody says he/she has ESP, it means this person is capable of extra-sensory perception.

Yet every indication is that ESP is not real; it's just pretend.

So while the statement literally claims that the poster has extra-sensory perception, what it actually means is they're joking, lying or deluded. In this case I confidently infer they were joking, and intended their audience to recognise that.
 
My best friend is Santa Claus. It's a shame there isn't a more reliable way for us to get together more often though. I've had to hitch rides with some of the Ice Road Truckers in the past.
 
Obviously, the two aspects (emission and reception) are complementary, and not contradictory.

No. This is not "obvious" at all. It's pure assumption. It's a hypothesis you did not test, and its a factor you did not consider in your experiment design. If you're arguing that there are two modalities at work -- emission and reception -- then in order to characterize their interaction you must first demonstrate their separate existence and then design a protocol that varies across them, or controls for them.
 
Yet every indication is that ESP is not real; it's just pretend.

So while the statement literally claims that the poster has extra-sensory perception, what it actually means is they're joking, lying or deluded. In this case I confidently infer they were joking, and intended their audience to recognise that.
When you say that calwaterbear's post:
... I do indeed have ESP, and know for a fact that he wrote 2!
(made in 2012 on the forum of the James Randi Educational Foundation, so that was quite a while ago) was "a joke", I think that you are actually projecting your stated belief ("ESP is not real") onto him (I assume it was a "him").

But you can't do that in a scientific research: you just have to accept his words, and the friendly and serious tone of his post (seen in context).

More generally, a group of pseudo-skeptics cannot dictate to a psychic claimant what he should believe, just because they like it that way.
 
I doubt we've ever had a poster here whose emotional investment in their particular belief is greater than Michel's, for reasons we all understand and cannot discuss.

An increased understanding of the causes you refer to suggest, charitably enough, that the emotional component is a reaction. Yes, there are people who very much want to believe that they are special for this or that reason, and they will naturally eschew meaningful tests of their ability in order to continue to receive the benefit of ego reinforcement. Emotion arises for not wanting to abandon their place of comfort to face facts.

However, in other cases these beliefs acquire the force of observation, through no fault of character or appeal to ego. To say to some that there is no such demonstrable phenomenon as ESP is tantamount to me telling you there is no such thing as light or gravity. Naturally, for me to represent that what you firmly believe you observe as fact is actually an illusion or a farce would, after time, like provoke an emotional outburst. But that's a more pitiable state because the experience is like being the only rational one in the room.
 
But you can't do that in a scientific research: you just have to accept his words...

No, in real science the sincerity factor is obviated away entirely by experiment design. In contrast, you have specifically included it by design, so that you can pretend there is a need for a culling step that, in your case, allows you to choose the effective subset of the data after you see it.

More generally, a group of pseudo-skeptics cannot dictate to a psychic claimant what he should believe, just because they like it that way.

Tsk, tsk. No name-calling, please. Your critics don't point out flaws in your reasoning because "they like it that way," but because they are legitimate problems in your reasoning. They don't care whether ESP exists or not, or whether you have it. They just want something that is put forward as science to actually be science. You have predicted an experiment purporting to be scientific on a factor -- your subjective judgment -- that is eminently anti-scientific. That is one level of error. But to continue, your critics have tested your ability to enact your proposed post hoc correction and have demonstrated that you lack the skill to do so. This is fatal to your claim even if the thing you proposed to do were accepted scientific practice, which it most emphatically is not. As lawyers would argue, "in the alternative," you simply have no basis by which to claim your experiment is rigorous.
 
… I think that you are actually projecting your stated belief ("ESP is not real") onto him (I assume it was a "him").

But you can't do that in a scientific research: you just have to accept his words, and the friendly and serious tone of his post (seen in context).

Ah. So I can't just reject the answers I don't like on the grounds that I see them as not credible.

This science stuff is hard.
 
Ah. So I can't just reject the answers I don't like on the grounds that I see them as not credible.

Pollsters face this all the time. In a more formal experimental protocol, subjects can be screened for their sincerity before the experiment begins. In such things as telephone polls, where the sample is more conveniently obtained such as in Michel's case, all answers are taken at face value with the understanding that some certain percentage of them will be joke answers or otherwise insincere. This is simply accounted for in the statistics that generalize the poll results to the general population, the margin of error. There is a possibility for error in not obtaining enough data, and an additional possibility for error in the "noise" in the data. The signal-to-noise ratio (to jump disciplines for a sec) for such polls is a known, fairly stable quantity.
 
Does anyone think Michel understands the irony of him, of all people, insisting that a poster be taken at their (obviously sarcastic) word when he has flatly refused to accept the (obviously serious) word of, for example, Loss Leader, dlorde and Femke?
 
Does anyone think Michel understands the irony of him, of all people, insisting that a poster be taken at their (obviously sarcastic) word when he has flatly refused to accept the (obviously serious) word of, for example, Loss Leader, dlorde and Femke?

It's so strikingly ironic that people would write letters to the newspapers* saying so, if only they could hear his thoughts, which they evidently don't.

*Or whatever the kids do these days with their mobile-devices and lap-tops.
 
Does anyone think Michel understands the irony of him, of all people, insisting that a poster be taken at their (obviously sarcastic) word when he has flatly refused to accept the (obviously serious) word of, for example, Loss Leader, dlorde and Femke?

No, I don't believe he does. For a claimant of this sort, the argument is about deftly threading the needle between contradictory interpretations or arguments. It's not perceived as irony. It's perceived as agile sophistication on the claimant's part. The delicate contours of the filter are evidence that it's carefully considered and not just a brute-force hammer.

Keep in mind that we're arguing that certain statements are obvious sarcasm. He's merely arguing that, according to him, certain statements "obviously" are not. In the claimant's mind those are arguments of similar strength. Where that breaks down, as you notice, is where people like those you've named come out and say specifically that they were kidding. Because their original statements were "obviously" sincere, a new rule has to be invoked -- that these respondents are now lying to save face because they have lately seen that they have helped to prove the claimant has ESP, something the claimant firmly believes they would not want to do. The late attempts to "retract" the data are rhetorically separate from the statements he's considering data. So in his mind it sounds like, "No, you don't get to retract your original statement; I must take it at face value."
 
Because their original statements were "obviously" sincere, a new rule has to be invoked -- that these respondents are now lying to save face because they have lately seen that they have helped to prove the claimant has ESP, something the claimant firmly believes they would not want to do.
But then why would they have given the correct answer in the first place? It makes no sense whatsoever.
 
But then why would they have given the correct answer in the first place?

Invent whatever reason you want: they are unconsciously telepathic, or just a lucky guess. A suitably imaginative claimant can come up with all sorts of speculation to fill that gap. What the claimant sees is that the respondent doesn't argue the sincerity of the response until after he sees that it was a success. So from his point of view, the respondent is the one doing post hoc culling.

Of course the experimenter was supposed to see the respondent's sarcasm for what it was. His failure to do this is what necessitates that the discussion occur post hoc.

It makes no sense whatsoever.

To the ordinary person, no. To people in certain circumstances, all the facts must be made to reconcile, even if some of those "facts" are delusional. A claimant wallowing in such circumstances will fully agree that the reasons he might come up with to explain the respondent's initially favorable behavior might seem odd. But to him it's the case of clinging to the improbable after rejecting the impossible.
 
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This thread is supposedly about tests. Even though the OP isn't going to conduct a serious test, I find the discussion of testing techniques with human subjects quite interesting. In that light JayUtah writes,
Pollsters face this all the time. ... In such things as telephone polls, ... all answers are taken at face value with the understanding that some certain percentage of them will be joke answers or otherwise insincere. This is simply accounted for in the statistics that generalize the poll results to the general population, the margin of error.

Could you tell us a little more about how adjustments are made for joke(or otherwise problematic) answers? I understand about weighting by demographic characteristics to generalize a sample to a population, but I don't know anything about accounting for some fraction of answers being problematic.
 
Could you tell us a little more about how adjustments are made for joke(or otherwise problematic) answers?

Sadly only a little bit, because my reporting is based on conversations with pollsters, not on having actually done the analysis myself. The analysis I'm most familiar with doesn't have to deal with it. And in those conversations the surveyors mentioned that some techniques are proprietary, so I have to fill in the blanks myself with speculation. The context of the conversations was my effort to understand apparently high rates of responses to telephone and online polls for questions like, "Do you believe in ghosts?" or "Do you believe the Moon landings were faked?" And the answers I got from surveyors included statements like, "We believe a certain number of people give outrageous ansers to controversial questions just to be jerks."

The assertion, "We know what percentage of answers are jokes," is one I'm reporting as hearsay, not one I can support with data that I have in hand. Since the statement came from someone who makes his living in survey research, I would like to hope it came from some empirical exercise. The question of what to do with it is something I'm not sure about. Normally in such a case, you would assume that insincere answers are given in both directions. Otherwise such a correction would skew the results. Maybe there's a statistical basis for assuming that joke answers tend in some direction versus another, but I'm just speculating.

I'm pretty sure Pew, for example, handles the insincerity proportion symmetrically -- i.e., by not attempting to weigh insincerity in one direction over another. Without a strong statistical basis for such a weighting, it would be an obvious bias. In that case, say you have N=1000 respondents, which is about what a U.S. national survey poll would need to achieve 3% MOE with 95% CI. Let's say you know from prior testing that 2% of your respondents will give insincere answers in a telephone poll. You keep the proportion of responses the same, but decrease your effective N by 2% when doing your significance computations. So you use N=980 to estimate significance, and report the larger margin of error that this would result in. You're effectively throwing out some percentage of the answers as jokes without respect to how they answered. Does that sound defensible?

A related assertion, "Our surveys have internal consistency checks," was similarly cryptic and also hearsay. But this alludes to a very common practice in psychometric and sociometric instruments. Very often those questionnaires will ask a series of questions that are worded differently but actually address the same underlying phenomenon. It is expected that a sincere response will be consistent across all the congruent questions. This is meant to preclude the subject's attempt to fudge the test in one way or another. It allows the researcher to score an individual's set of responses for internal consistency, and allows inconsistent data to be rejected. Keep in mind this is not consistency as reckoned against some desired outcome, but consistency as reckoned between questions designed to discover the same thing.

In that vein, a survey might ask, "How strongly do you believe in ESP?" on a 5-point scale, and later ask, "Are some people psychic?" on the same scale. While my hastily-contrived example is probably too transparent to work, the gist is that if a responded answered 4 to the first question and 1 to the second, the surveyor might throw this whole subject out as having answered inconsistently. Note here that it doesn't matter whether he picked a 1 or a 5 on the scale, just so that he answered the "duplicate" questions consistently.
 
Does anyone think Michel understands the irony of him, of all people, insisting that a poster be taken at their (obviously sarcastic) word when he has flatly refused to accept the (obviously serious) word of, for example, Loss Leader, dlorde and Femke?

No, we established a few pages back that his grasp of irony matches his grasp of sarcasm.
 

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