Which is way I don't mind so much that the Dems are using unsubstantiated accusations to derail Kavanaugh. I'm more than a little surprised at a bunch of skeptics taking it so seriously though.
And why wouldn't skeptics take it seriously?
Skeptics follow where the majority or preponderance of the evidence goes, or what probability suggests is likely correct (even if we don't have such iron-clad proof.)
So what is more likely: That the woman is lying (and that Kavanaugh is innocent) or that the woman is telling the truth and Kavanaugh is guilty.
In the woman's favor, we have:
- Her mentioning the assault years ago to a therapist, before Kavanaugh was nominated. Would seem a rather big coincidence if a woman just made something up years ago that just happened to match the current accusations.
- The victim took a lie detector test. Now, lie detectors are inaccurate, and they should not be used in a court of law. But the fact that she was willing to have herself tested using one suggests that she knew her story was accurate.
- Suggestions (claim from a former roomate+a book with a thinly-disguised description) that Kavenaugh drank heavily
- Requests from the victim that the case be investigated, while Kavenaugh and the GOP are blocking further FBI investigations. (If Kavenaugh is innocent, what would be the harm in getting the FBI involved, considering they could actually help clear his name)
- Possible Perjury during various hearings, suggesting that perhaps he is not very credible
Now, does any of that rise to the level of "beyond a reasonable doubt"? Nope... but it does certainly lend credibility to her case.
As for Kavanaugh, what does he have supporting his claim?
- Lots of character witnesses. "I can't imagine him doing such a thing". I put that in the same category as the neighbors of Jeffry Dhalmer who said "he was always such a quiet guy".
- Suggestions that the girl should have reported it earlier (which of course ignores the fact that the majority of assaults are not reported)
- Suggestions that "it was in his past he's a different guy" or "the hearings should not be delayed". Which says nothing about his guilt or innocence
So, I'd say the evidence suggesting Kavenaugh acted improperly is stronger than the evidence that he did nothing.