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[mode = harumph] Well if you're not going to accept a set of essays, opinion pieces and wild conjecture I don't know what will satisfy you [/mode]CFLarsen said:
Note to Lucianarchy
Are you sure you can't see your way to providing references to
- repeatable
- independently verified experimentally
- peer reviewed
studies published in reputable journals
Lucianarchy
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"[...] But the most embarrassing error Randi makes concerns the position of the hole. It isn't three feet above the floor, but is located only a little above floor level. The only thing you can see through it - even under optimal conditions - is a small bit of exterior floor and opposing wall. (The viewing radius is only about 20°, and the targets for the Geller experiments were hung on a different wall completely.) I also discovered during my trip to SRI that an equipment rack was situated in front of the hole throughout the Geller work, which obstructed any view through it even further. I ended my little investigation by talking with two people who were present during these critical experiments. They both agreed that wires were running through the hole - therefore totally blocking it - during the time of the Geller experiments.
Little more needs to be said concerning Randi's criticisms of the Geller work, since the important point is not really whether the Israeli psychic proved his psychic powers, but whether Randi can be considered a responsible critic of parapsychology. I think the answer should be obvious by now. This fact, however, doesn't keep him from making wild accusations against both Targ and Puthoff, even to the point of questioning their scientific honesty.
It is well known that the two SRI physicists issued a film which shows Geller successfully guessing the uppermost face of a die after it had been shaken in a closed box. Their Nature report describes these tests and phenomenal accuracy. The critical film was taken by Zev Pressman (an SRI staff photographer) and it shows Geller correctly making a guess. Randi claims that Targ and Puthoff lied when they stated that this film was taken during the actual tests. He further asserts that the film was a re-enactment. Basing his charges on information he claims came from Pressman himself, Randi maintains that the film was taken after the photographer had gone home and was merely staged. 'Pressman revealed that he was told Geller's eight successful throws [my emphasis] were done after he (Pressman) had gone home for the day, writes Randi, 'and that this film was a re-enactment of that supposed miracle'
Dr Puthoff was thoroughly disgusted when I read this section of Flim-Flam! to him. 'Not one millimetre of that film was a re-enactment, he told me. He also claimed that he had even procured an affidavit from Pressman certifying that the footage was filmed by him during the actual SRI tests. Dr Puthoff supplied me with this affidavit and urged me to get in touch with Mr Pressman, which is exactly I did.
l spoke directly with Mr Pressman on 5 January 1981 and he was quite interested when I told him about Randi's book. He denied that he had spoken to the magician. When l read him the section of Randi's book dealing with his alleged 'expose' of the Targ-Puthoff film, he became very vexed. He firmly backed up the authenticity of the film, told me how he had taken it on the spot, and labelled Randi's allegation as a total fabrication. (His own descriptive language was a little more colourful!) [...]"
Psychic Breakthroughs Today
D. Scott Rogo
Aquarian Press 1987 - ISBN 0850305705
Little more needs to be said concerning Randi's criticisms of the Geller work, since the important point is not really whether the Israeli psychic proved his psychic powers, but whether Randi can be considered a responsible critic of parapsychology. I think the answer should be obvious by now. This fact, however, doesn't keep him from making wild accusations against both Targ and Puthoff, even to the point of questioning their scientific honesty.
It is well known that the two SRI physicists issued a film which shows Geller successfully guessing the uppermost face of a die after it had been shaken in a closed box. Their Nature report describes these tests and phenomenal accuracy. The critical film was taken by Zev Pressman (an SRI staff photographer) and it shows Geller correctly making a guess. Randi claims that Targ and Puthoff lied when they stated that this film was taken during the actual tests. He further asserts that the film was a re-enactment. Basing his charges on information he claims came from Pressman himself, Randi maintains that the film was taken after the photographer had gone home and was merely staged. 'Pressman revealed that he was told Geller's eight successful throws [my emphasis] were done after he (Pressman) had gone home for the day, writes Randi, 'and that this film was a re-enactment of that supposed miracle'
Dr Puthoff was thoroughly disgusted when I read this section of Flim-Flam! to him. 'Not one millimetre of that film was a re-enactment, he told me. He also claimed that he had even procured an affidavit from Pressman certifying that the footage was filmed by him during the actual SRI tests. Dr Puthoff supplied me with this affidavit and urged me to get in touch with Mr Pressman, which is exactly I did.
l spoke directly with Mr Pressman on 5 January 1981 and he was quite interested when I told him about Randi's book. He denied that he had spoken to the magician. When l read him the section of Randi's book dealing with his alleged 'expose' of the Targ-Puthoff film, he became very vexed. He firmly backed up the authenticity of the film, told me how he had taken it on the spot, and labelled Randi's allegation as a total fabrication. (His own descriptive language was a little more colourful!) [...]"
Psychic Breakthroughs Today
D. Scott Rogo
Aquarian Press 1987 - ISBN 0850305705
Psiload
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And just look at the amazing progress that has taken place in this field over the last twenty years:Lucianarchy said:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2253191425
James Randi has certainly been handed his comeuppance!
Lucianarchy
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- Oct 28, 2001
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"[...]Another case is CSICOP's handling of the "Mars effect"
affair. In this case, a challenge to French "cosmobiologist"
Michel Gauquelin resulted in the verification of his claim
that correlations he found between the position of Mars and
sports ability were not the result of factors such as births
tending to occur at particular times of day. (For all the
gory details of this mess, see Curry 1982 and Kammann 1982.
Cherfas 1981 gives a brief summary.)
But what is by far the worst example of skeptical
failure I have come across is a description of a March 18,
1988 debate between creationist Duane Gish of the Institute
for Creation Research (ICR) and Ian Plimer, associate [sic]
professor of geology at Newcastle University. The
description of this debate which appeared in an article in
the Australian Skeptics' publication The Skeptic, by Steve
Roberts of the Canberra Skeptics and Skeptic editor Tim
Mendham (Roberts & Mendham 1988) was filled with serious
misrepresentations. I discovered this by viewing a videotape
of the debate, which took place at the Clancy Theatre of the
University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.[...]"
"Some Failures of Organized Skepticism"
and "Postscript to 'Some Failures of Organized Skepticism,'"
appeared in _The Arizona Skeptic_ (vol. 3, no. 1, January 1990,
pp. 2-5 and vol. 5, no. 3, November/December 1991, pp. 1-3
respectively)
affair. In this case, a challenge to French "cosmobiologist"
Michel Gauquelin resulted in the verification of his claim
that correlations he found between the position of Mars and
sports ability were not the result of factors such as births
tending to occur at particular times of day. (For all the
gory details of this mess, see Curry 1982 and Kammann 1982.
Cherfas 1981 gives a brief summary.)
But what is by far the worst example of skeptical
failure I have come across is a description of a March 18,
1988 debate between creationist Duane Gish of the Institute
for Creation Research (ICR) and Ian Plimer, associate [sic]
professor of geology at Newcastle University. The
description of this debate which appeared in an article in
the Australian Skeptics' publication The Skeptic, by Steve
Roberts of the Canberra Skeptics and Skeptic editor Tim
Mendham (Roberts & Mendham 1988) was filled with serious
misrepresentations. I discovered this by viewing a videotape
of the debate, which took place at the Clancy Theatre of the
University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.[...]"
"Some Failures of Organized Skepticism"
and "Postscript to 'Some Failures of Organized Skepticism,'"
appeared in _The Arizona Skeptic_ (vol. 3, no. 1, January 1990,
pp. 2-5 and vol. 5, no. 3, November/December 1991, pp. 1-3
respectively)
Lucianarchy
Banned
- Joined
- Oct 28, 2001
- Messages
- 2,105
Beloff, J (1974) ESP: the search for a physiological index. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 47: 401-420
Beloff, J., Cowles, M. & Bate. D. (1970). Autonomic reactions to emotive stimuli using sensory and extrasensory conditions of presentations. Journal of the American Society of Psychical Research 64
Braud, W. (1978). Allobiofeedback: Immediate feedback for a psychokinetic influence upon another person's physiology. In W. Rolls (Ed.), Research in Parapsychology 1977, Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. pp. 123-134
Braud, W. (1979). Conformance behavior involving living systems. In W. Roll (Ed). Research in Parapsychology, 1978, Metchuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. pp. 111-115.
Braud, W. (1983). More tests with electric fish. Psi Researcher 2: 114
Braud, W. (1990). Distant mental influence of rate of hemolysis of human red blood cells. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research 84(1): 1-24.
Braud, W. (1986). PSI and PNI: Exploring the interface between parapsychology and psychoneuroimmuninology. Parapsychological Review 17: 1-5
Braud, W. (1989) Using living targets in psi research. Parapsychological Review 20: 1-4
Braud, W. (1992). Human interconnectedness: Research indications. ReVision: A Journal of Consciousness and Transformation, 14: 140-148
Braud, W. (1993). On the use of living target systems in distant mental influence research, In L. Coly (Ed.), Psi research methodology: A re-examination. New York: Parapsychology Foundation
Braud, W. (1993). Remote mental influence of electrodermal activity. Journal of Indian Psychology10 (1-2): 1-9
Braud, W. & Dennis, S. (1989). Geophysical variables and behavior: LVIII. Autonomic activity, hemolysis, and biological psychokinesis: Possible relationships with geomagnetic field activity. Perceptual and Motor Skills 68: 1243-1254
Braud, W. & Jackson, J. (1982). Ideomotor reactions as psi indicators. Parapsychology Review 12: 10-11
Braud, W. & Jackson, J. (1983). Psi influence upon mental imagery. Parapsychological Review 14: 13-15
Braud, W. & Schlitz, M. (1983). Psychokinetic influence on electrodermal activity. Journal of Parapsychology 47: 95-119
Braud, W. & Schlitz, M. (1989). Possible role of intuitive data sorting in electrodermal biological psychokinesis (bio-PK). Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research 83: 289-302
Braud, W., Schlitz, M. & Schmidt, H. (1990). Remote mental influence of animate and inanimate target systems: A method of comparison and preliminary findings. In L. Henkel & J. Palmer (Eds), Research in Parapsychology 1989. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. pp. 42-47
Braud, W. & Schlitz, M. (1991). Consciousness interactions with remote biological systems: Anomalous intentionality effects. Subtle Energies 2(1): 1-46
Braud, W., Shafer, D. & Andrews, S. (1990). Electrodermal correlates of remote attention: Autonomic reactions to unseen gaze. Proceedings of Presented Papers: 33rd Annual Parapsychological Association Convention, Chevy Chase, MD. pp. 14-28.
Braud, W., Shafer, D, & Andrews, S (1993). Reactions to an unseen gaze (remote attention): A review, with new data on autonomic staring detection. Journal of Parapsychology 57: 373-390
Braud, W., Shafer, D, & Andrews, S (1993). Further studies of autonomic detection of remote staring: Replication, new control procedures, and personality correlates. Journal of Parapsychology 57: 391-409
Braud, W., Shafer, D., McNeill, K. & Guerra, V. (1993). Attention focusing facilitated through remote mental interaction. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association 26th Annual Convention, The Parapsychological Association, Inc. pp. 2-11
Cade, C. M. & Woolley-Hart, P. A.. (1971). The measurement of hypnosis and autohypnosis by determination of electrical skin resistance. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 46: 81-101
Coover, J.E. (1913). The feeling of being stared at. American Journal of Psychology 24: 57?-575
Dean, E. D. (1962). Plethysmograph as indicator of ESP. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 41
Dean, E. D. (1968). Attempts to use plethysmograph recordings in communication. Journal of Parapsychology 32 (abstract)
Dean, E. D. (1969). Long-distance plethysmograph telepathy with agent under water. Journal of Parapsychology 33 (abstract)
Dean, E. D. & Nash, C. B. (1967). Coincident plethysmograph results under controlled conditions. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 44
Delanoy, D. & Sah. S. (1994) Cognitive and physiological psi responses to remote positive and neutral emotional states. Proceedings of the Parpasychological Association 27th Annual Convention, The Parapsychological Association, Inc. pp.128-137
Esser, A. H., Etter, T. L. & Chamberlain, W. B. (1967). Preliminary report: Physiological concomitants of "communication" between isolated subjects. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 44
Grad, B. (1965). Some biological effects of the "laying on of hands": A review of experiments with animals and plants. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research 59: 95-127
Gruber, E. R. (1980). PK effects on pre-recorded group behavior of living systems. European Journal of Parapsychology 3: 167-175
Kelly, M.T., Varvoglis, M., & Keane, P. (1979). Physiological response during psi and sensory presentation of an arousing stimulus. In W. G. Roll (Ed.), Research in Parapsychology, 1978. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow press. pp. 40-41
Khoklov, N. (1983). Remote biofeedback in voluntary control of heart rate, Psi Research 2: 66-92
Morris, R. L. (1977). Parapsychology, biology, and anpsi. In B. B. Wolman (Ed.) Handbook of Parapsychology, New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Company. pp. 687-716
Murphy, M. (1993). The Future of the Body: Explorations Into the Further Evolution of Human Nature. New York: Putnam.
Nash, C. B. & Nash, C. S. (1962). Coincident vasoconstriction in pairs of resting subjects. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 63
Radin, D., Taylor, R. & Braud, W. (1993). Remote mental influence of electrodermal activity: A preliminary replication. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association 36th Annual Convention, The Parapsychological Association, Inc. pp. 12-23
Sheldrake, R.(1994). Seven Experiments that Could Change the World. London: Fourth Estate.
Tart, C. T. (1963). Physiological correlates of psi cognition. International Journal of Parapsychology 5: 375-386
Thalbourne, M. & Evans, L. (1992). Attitudes and beliefs about, and reactions to staring and being stared at. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 33: 448-457
Tichener, E. B. (1898). The feeling of being stared at. Science 8: 895-897
Vasiliev, LL (1976). Experiments in Distant Influence. New York: Dutton, (English Translation)
Beloff, J., Cowles, M. & Bate. D. (1970). Autonomic reactions to emotive stimuli using sensory and extrasensory conditions of presentations. Journal of the American Society of Psychical Research 64
Braud, W. (1978). Allobiofeedback: Immediate feedback for a psychokinetic influence upon another person's physiology. In W. Rolls (Ed.), Research in Parapsychology 1977, Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. pp. 123-134
Braud, W. (1979). Conformance behavior involving living systems. In W. Roll (Ed). Research in Parapsychology, 1978, Metchuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. pp. 111-115.
Braud, W. (1983). More tests with electric fish. Psi Researcher 2: 114
Braud, W. (1990). Distant mental influence of rate of hemolysis of human red blood cells. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research 84(1): 1-24.
Braud, W. (1986). PSI and PNI: Exploring the interface between parapsychology and psychoneuroimmuninology. Parapsychological Review 17: 1-5
Braud, W. (1989) Using living targets in psi research. Parapsychological Review 20: 1-4
Braud, W. (1992). Human interconnectedness: Research indications. ReVision: A Journal of Consciousness and Transformation, 14: 140-148
Braud, W. (1993). On the use of living target systems in distant mental influence research, In L. Coly (Ed.), Psi research methodology: A re-examination. New York: Parapsychology Foundation
Braud, W. (1993). Remote mental influence of electrodermal activity. Journal of Indian Psychology10 (1-2): 1-9
Braud, W. & Dennis, S. (1989). Geophysical variables and behavior: LVIII. Autonomic activity, hemolysis, and biological psychokinesis: Possible relationships with geomagnetic field activity. Perceptual and Motor Skills 68: 1243-1254
Braud, W. & Jackson, J. (1982). Ideomotor reactions as psi indicators. Parapsychology Review 12: 10-11
Braud, W. & Jackson, J. (1983). Psi influence upon mental imagery. Parapsychological Review 14: 13-15
Braud, W. & Schlitz, M. (1983). Psychokinetic influence on electrodermal activity. Journal of Parapsychology 47: 95-119
Braud, W. & Schlitz, M. (1989). Possible role of intuitive data sorting in electrodermal biological psychokinesis (bio-PK). Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research 83: 289-302
Braud, W., Schlitz, M. & Schmidt, H. (1990). Remote mental influence of animate and inanimate target systems: A method of comparison and preliminary findings. In L. Henkel & J. Palmer (Eds), Research in Parapsychology 1989. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. pp. 42-47
Braud, W. & Schlitz, M. (1991). Consciousness interactions with remote biological systems: Anomalous intentionality effects. Subtle Energies 2(1): 1-46
Braud, W., Shafer, D. & Andrews, S. (1990). Electrodermal correlates of remote attention: Autonomic reactions to unseen gaze. Proceedings of Presented Papers: 33rd Annual Parapsychological Association Convention, Chevy Chase, MD. pp. 14-28.
Braud, W., Shafer, D, & Andrews, S (1993). Reactions to an unseen gaze (remote attention): A review, with new data on autonomic staring detection. Journal of Parapsychology 57: 373-390
Braud, W., Shafer, D, & Andrews, S (1993). Further studies of autonomic detection of remote staring: Replication, new control procedures, and personality correlates. Journal of Parapsychology 57: 391-409
Braud, W., Shafer, D., McNeill, K. & Guerra, V. (1993). Attention focusing facilitated through remote mental interaction. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association 26th Annual Convention, The Parapsychological Association, Inc. pp. 2-11
Cade, C. M. & Woolley-Hart, P. A.. (1971). The measurement of hypnosis and autohypnosis by determination of electrical skin resistance. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 46: 81-101
Coover, J.E. (1913). The feeling of being stared at. American Journal of Psychology 24: 57?-575
Dean, E. D. (1962). Plethysmograph as indicator of ESP. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 41
Dean, E. D. (1968). Attempts to use plethysmograph recordings in communication. Journal of Parapsychology 32 (abstract)
Dean, E. D. (1969). Long-distance plethysmograph telepathy with agent under water. Journal of Parapsychology 33 (abstract)
Dean, E. D. & Nash, C. B. (1967). Coincident plethysmograph results under controlled conditions. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 44
Delanoy, D. & Sah. S. (1994) Cognitive and physiological psi responses to remote positive and neutral emotional states. Proceedings of the Parpasychological Association 27th Annual Convention, The Parapsychological Association, Inc. pp.128-137
Esser, A. H., Etter, T. L. & Chamberlain, W. B. (1967). Preliminary report: Physiological concomitants of "communication" between isolated subjects. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 44
Grad, B. (1965). Some biological effects of the "laying on of hands": A review of experiments with animals and plants. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research 59: 95-127
Gruber, E. R. (1980). PK effects on pre-recorded group behavior of living systems. European Journal of Parapsychology 3: 167-175
Kelly, M.T., Varvoglis, M., & Keane, P. (1979). Physiological response during psi and sensory presentation of an arousing stimulus. In W. G. Roll (Ed.), Research in Parapsychology, 1978. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow press. pp. 40-41
Khoklov, N. (1983). Remote biofeedback in voluntary control of heart rate, Psi Research 2: 66-92
Morris, R. L. (1977). Parapsychology, biology, and anpsi. In B. B. Wolman (Ed.) Handbook of Parapsychology, New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Company. pp. 687-716
Murphy, M. (1993). The Future of the Body: Explorations Into the Further Evolution of Human Nature. New York: Putnam.
Nash, C. B. & Nash, C. S. (1962). Coincident vasoconstriction in pairs of resting subjects. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 63
Radin, D., Taylor, R. & Braud, W. (1993). Remote mental influence of electrodermal activity: A preliminary replication. Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association 36th Annual Convention, The Parapsychological Association, Inc. pp. 12-23
Sheldrake, R.(1994). Seven Experiments that Could Change the World. London: Fourth Estate.
Tart, C. T. (1963). Physiological correlates of psi cognition. International Journal of Parapsychology 5: 375-386
Thalbourne, M. & Evans, L. (1992). Attitudes and beliefs about, and reactions to staring and being stared at. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 33: 448-457
Tichener, E. B. (1898). The feeling of being stared at. Science 8: 895-897
Vasiliev, LL (1976). Experiments in Distant Influence. New York: Dutton, (English Translation)
Lucianarchy
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Overview of Current Parapsychology Research in the Former Soviet Union
Edwin C. May, Ph.D. and Larissa Vilenskaya
(Subtle Energies Volume 3, Number 3, pp. 45-67, 1992)
ABSTRACT: This paper provides an in-depth discussion of research of anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) in the former Soviet Union. The authors spent approximately two months in Russia during 1992 and 1993, interacting with researchers in Moscow and Novosibirsk. The authors primarily discuss experiments in anomalous perturbation (often referred to as psychokinesis?PK and bio? which have been the main focus of AMP research programs in the Soviet Union. In particular, the authors discuss the methodologies and results of experimental attempts by human operators to affect the following inanimate and animate target systems: (1) microcalorimeters, (2) electric noise generators, (3) cellular cultures, (4) plant seeds, (5) plant biopotentials, (6) frequency of impulses emitted by an electricity?generating fish, (7) eating behavior of mice, (8) person's reaction time, and (9) parameters of human EEG.
Anomalous Mental Phenomena Research in Russia and the Former Soviet Union: A Follow Up
Larissa Vilenskaya & Edwin C. May, Ph.D.
(Subtle Energies Volume 4, Number 3, pp. 231-250, 1992)
ABSTRACT: We describe our further exploration into research of anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). We visited numerous research centers in major cities of Russia and the Ukraine, met with leading researchers in the field, visited their laboratories, and participated in some experiments. In their research, our Russian colleagues emphasize studies of anomalous perturbation (AP), also termed psychokinesis (PK), and "distant mental effect" on biological systems (bio?AP or bio?PK). The experiments have been conducted in top academic and research institutions, including Moscow State University, St. Petersburg State University, and several research institutes of the Russian and Ukrainian Academies of Sciences. Although the quality of research varies considerably in different institutions, there are groups that have developed rigorous methodologies. We also consider the potential cultural impact on Russian AMP research. We conclude with a discussion of the causal model of AP studies vs. informational, perceptual model in relation to the Russian research.
Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis
Edwin C. May, Jessica M. Utts, Beverly S. Humphrey, Wanda L. W. Luke, Thane J. Frivold, and Virginia V. Trask
(Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, September 1990, pp: 193-228)
ABSTRACT: Fuzzy set technology is applied to the ongoing research question of how to automate the analysis of remote-viewing data. Fuzzy sets were invented to describe, in a formal way, the subjectivity inherent in human reasoning. Applied to remote-viewing analysis, the technique involves a quantitative encoding of target and response material and provides a formal comparison. In this progress report, the accuracy of a response is defined as the percent of the intended target material that is described correctly. The reliability is defined as the percent of the response that was correct. The assessment of the remote-viewing quality is denned as the product of accuracy and reliability, called the figure of merit The procedure is applied to a test set of six remote-viewing trials. A comparison of the figures of merit with the subjective assessments of 37 independent analysts shows good agreement. The fuzzy set technology is also used to provide a quantitative definition of target orthogonality.
Decision Augmentation Theory
Edwin C. May, Jessica M. Utts, and S. James P. Spottiswoode
(Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 59, September 1995, pp: 195-220)
ABSTRACT: Decision augmentation theory (DAT) holds that humans integrate information obtained by anomalous cognition into the usual decision process. The result is that, to a statistical degree, such decisions are biased toward volitional outcomes. We introduce our model and show that the domain over which it is applicable is within a few standard deviations from chance. We contrast the theory's experimental consequences with those of models that treat anomalous effects as due to a force. We derive mathematical expressions for DAT and force-like models using two distributions, normal and binomial. DAT is testable both retrospectively and prospectively, and we provide statistical power curves to assist in the experimental design of such tests. We show that the experimental consequences of our theory are different from those of force-like models except for one special case.
Applications of Decision Augmentation Theory
Edwin C. May, S. James P. Spottiswoode, Jessica M. Utts, and Christine L. James
(Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 59, September 1995, pp: 221-250)
ABSTRACT: Decision augmentation theory (DAT) provides an informational mechanism for a class of anomalous mental phenomena that have hitherto been viewed as being caused by a force-like mechanism. Under specifiable conditions, DATs predictions for statistical anomalous perturbation databases are different from those of all force-like mechanisms. For large random number generator databases, DAT predicts a zero slope for a least squares fit to the (z^2 , n) scatter diagram, where n is the number of bits resulting from a single run and z is the resulting z score. We find a slope of (1.73 ± 3.19) X 10^-6 (t= 0.543, df= 126, p = .295) for the historical binary RNG database, which strongly suggests that some informational mechanism is responsible for the anomaly. In a two sequence length analysis of a limited set of RNG data from the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research laboratory, we find that a force-like explanation misses the observed data by 8.6 Sigma; however, the observed data are within 1.1 sigma of the DAT prediction. We also apply DAT to one pseudo-RNG study and find that its predicted slope is not significantly different from the expected value for an informational mechanism. We review and comment on six published articles that discussed DATs earlier formalism (i.e., intuitive data sorting). We found two studies that support a force-like mechanism. Our analysis of Brand's 1990 hemolysis study confirms his finding in favor of an influence model over a selection one (p = .023), and Braud and Schlitz (1989) demonstrated a force-like interaction in their remote staring experiment (p = .020). We provide six circumstantial arguments against an influence hypothesis. Our anomalous cognition research suggests that the quality of the data is proportional to the total change of Shannon entropy. We demonstrate that the change of Shannon entropy of a binary sequence from chance is independent of sequence length; thus, we suggest that a fundamental argument supports DAT over influence models. In our conclusion, we suggest that, except for one special case, the physical RNG database cannot be explained by any influence model, and that contradicting evidence from two experiments on biological systems should inspire more investigations in a way that would allow valid DAT analyses.
ESP and the Brain: Current Status
Edwin C. May
(3rd Symposium: Behind and Beyond the Brain, 321-352)
ABSTRACT: Serious research into extrasensory perception (ESP) has been conducted since the 1930's, and a number of different protocols have been established to elicit the phenomenon. The large database to date has been analyzed by critics and statisticians alike, and the consensus is that the result meets generally accepted criteria for evidence of a statistically based, information transfer anomaly. We provide a brief overview of three of the most common procedures and their results as the basis for the justification to engage in a search for a central nervous system (CNS) correlate to ESP. Our search for a CNS response to an ESP stimulus began in 1973 when we found that alpha band (8 to 12 Hz) power changed significantly concomitant with a remote and isolated flashing-light (i.e., 16 Hz) stimulus. Even though there was statistically significant evidence of a change in alpha power, the single participant in the study "was unable to demonstrate cognitively in which epochs the remote light was flashing. In addition, there was considerable ambiguity as to the EEG lead and direction of the alpha power change for the observed significant effects. That is, significant increases or decreases of in-band alpha power were observed on different electrodes at different times. Thus we abandoned this line of investigation until 1986. At that time, we used magnetoencephalographic techniques to search for evoked-response-fields occurring concomitant with a remote flashing sinusoidal stimulus. Although the initial results were encouraging in that we apparently detected significant spontaneous primary alpha phase shifts, we were unable to replicate our findings. Continuing our search in 1994, we conducted an experiment to detect event-related desynchronizations (ERD's) resulting from an ESP stimulus. Three subjects contributed a total of 70 trials during which both ESP and EEG data were collected. The ESP data, which have been blind judged by an established rank-order method, yielded independently significant results for two of the three receivers, and the overall ESP result was significant at p=0.006 (ES = 0.303). Using a cross correlation technique, which was twice as sensitive as standard signal averaging, we did not observe any evidence for an ERD in response to an ESP stimulus. Our analysis technique was sensitive enough to detect a 20% decrease from prestimulus alpha power1. We will summarize our previous experiments and discuss a number of possible explanations for this result.
Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition Experiments
Nevin D. Lantz, Wanda L. W. Luke, and Edwin C. May
(Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 58, September 1994, pp: 286-302)
ABSTRACT: The ganzfeld experiments as summarized by Bem and Honorton (1994) suggest that using dynamic targets produces stronger results than using static ones. Bem and Honorton, however, only analyzed ganzfeld studies that included the use of a sender. Because a sender is not a necessary requirement hi forced-choice trials, we designed and carried out a study to see if a sender is required in nonganzfeld, free-response trials. In the first of two experiments, five experienced receivers participated hi 40 trials each, 10 in each condition of a 2x2 design to explore sender and target type. We observed significant effects for static targets (exact sum-of-rank probability of p < .0073, effect size = 0.248, n = 100), chance results for dynamic targets (p < .500, effect size = 0.000, n = 100), and no interaction effects between sender and target-type conditions. One receiver slightly favored the no-sender condition, F(l,36) = 4.43, p < .04, whereas another slightly favored static targets, F(l,36) = 5.47, p < .04. We speculate that these surprising results (i.e., favoring static over dynamic targets) arose, in part, because of the difference between a topically unbounded dynamic target pool and a topically restrictive static pool. In a second experiment, we redesigned the dynamic pool to match more closely the properties of the static pool. Four of the receivers from the first study participated in at least 20 trials each, 10 in each target-type condition. No senders were used throughout this experiment. We observed a significant increase in anomalous cognition for the new dynamic targets, £(143) = 3.06, p < 1.3x 10~ , and a significant increase hi anomalous cognition for the static targets, £(143) = 1.68, p<. 047. We conclude that a sender is not a necessary requirement for free-response anomalous cognition. A rank-order analysis showed no target-type dependencies in the second study. On the basis of an analysis by May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994b), we believe a fundamental argument suggests mat hi free-response anomalous cognition experiments, dynamic targets should be better than static ones.
Managing the Target-Pool Bandwidth: Possible Noise Reduction for Anomalous Cognition Experiments
Edwin C. May, S. James P. Spottiswoode, and Christine L. James
(Journal of Parapsychology Vol. 58, pp. 303-313, 1994)
ABSTRACT: Lantz and colleagues recently reported in the first of two studies that experienced receivers from die Cognitive Sciences Laboratory produced significant evidence for anomalous cognition (AC) of static targets but showed little evidence for AC of dynamic targets. This result was surprising: It was directly opposite to the results that were derived from the 1994 Bem and Honorton ganzfeld database. In Lantz et al.'s experiment, the topics of the dynamic targets were virtually unlimited, whereas die topics for the static targets were constrained in content, size of cognitive elements, and range of affect In a second experiment, they redesigned the target pools to correct this imbalance and observed significant improvement of AC functioning. We incorporate these findings into a definition of target-pool bandwidth and propose that die proper selection of bandwidth will lead to a reduction of incorrect information in free-response AC.
Feedback Considerations in Anomalous Cognition Experiments
Edwin C. May, Nevin D. Lantz, and Tom Piantineda
(Journal of Parapsychology Vol. 60, pp. 211-226, 1996)
ABSTRACT: To determine from what time frame the data from anomalous cognition (AC) originate, we have examined the role of precognition and feedback on the quality of AC. In an otherwise standard AC protocol, we displayed feedback tachistoscopicauy to receivers. The cognitive awareness of the feedback experience was minimal, and 2 of the 8 intensities used for visual display of the feedback were below subliminal threshold. We hypothesized a number of possible relationships between feedback intensity and AC quality, including one based on precognition (i.e., the data originated from the future feedback). Four viewers contributed 40 trials each (5 at 8 different intensity bands). Using a sum-of-ranks statistic, 2 viewers produced independently significant evidence of remote viewing (i.e., the binomial probability of 2 hits in 4 trials with an event probability of .05 is .014). None of the data showed significant correlation of feedback intensity with AC quality. This result is discussed with regard to precognition in general and the troublesome unfalsifiability aspect of truly goal-oriented precognition.
Skin Conductance Prestimulus Response: Analysis, Artifacts and a Pilot Study
S. James P. Spottiswoode and E. C. May
(Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 617-647, 2003)
ABSTRACT
revious studies have suggested that the human autonomic nervous system responds to stimuli 2-3 seconds before presentation. In these studies randomly chosen photographs with high and low affectivity were presented to participants. Ensemble averaging of skin conductance in the prestimulus epochs showed a differential response between high and low affectivity photographs. In our protocol the problem of idiosyncratic responses to pictorial stimuli was avoided by using audio startle stimuli. Stimulus type was determined just before presentation by a true random generator. Participants heard 20 stimuli per session with a 50% chance of an audio startle as against a silent control. Our dependent variable was the proportions of 3-second epochs prior to audio and control stimuli in which a skin conductance response, that is a minimum in skin conductance followed by a maximum, occurred. We found a significant effect (N = 125, Z-score (Z) = 3.27, effect size (ES) = 0.0901 0.0275, p = 5.4 10-4). Explanations for this result as an artifact were examined and rejected. We show that a significant result from an average-based epoch analysis in this type of experiment is not a necessary requirement to demonstrate significant evidence for a prestimulus response.
The American Institutes for Research Review of the Department of Defense's STARGAT Program: A Commentary
Edwin C. May
(Journal of Parapsychology Vol. 60, pp. 3-23, 1996)
ABSTRACT: As a result of a Congressionally Directed Activity, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) conducted an evaluation of a 24-year, government-sponsored program to investigate ESP and its potential use within die intelligence community. The American Institutes for Research (AIR) was contracted to conduct the review of both research and operations. Their September 29, 1995 final report was released to the public November 28, 1995. As a result of AIR's assessment, the CIA concluded that a statistically significant effect had been demonstrated in the laboratory but that there was no case in which ESP had provided data that had ever been used to guide intelligence operations. This paper is a critical review of AIR's methodology and conclusions. It will be shown that there is compelling evidence that the CIA set the outcome with regard to intelligence usage before the evaluation had begun. This was accomplished by limiting the research and operations data sets to exclude positive findings, by purposefully not interviewing historically significant participants, by ignoring previous extensive Department of Defense program reviews, and by using the questionable National Research Council's investigation of parapsychology as the starting point for their review. Although there may have been political and administrative justification for the CIA not to accept the government's in-house program for the operational use of anomalous cognition, these external considerations appeared to drive the outcome of the evaluation. As a result, they have come to the wrong conclusion with regard to the use of anomalous cognition in intelligence operations and have significantly underestimated the robustness of the basic phenomenon.
Edwin C. May, Ph.D. and Larissa Vilenskaya
(Subtle Energies Volume 3, Number 3, pp. 45-67, 1992)
ABSTRACT: This paper provides an in-depth discussion of research of anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) in the former Soviet Union. The authors spent approximately two months in Russia during 1992 and 1993, interacting with researchers in Moscow and Novosibirsk. The authors primarily discuss experiments in anomalous perturbation (often referred to as psychokinesis?PK and bio? which have been the main focus of AMP research programs in the Soviet Union. In particular, the authors discuss the methodologies and results of experimental attempts by human operators to affect the following inanimate and animate target systems: (1) microcalorimeters, (2) electric noise generators, (3) cellular cultures, (4) plant seeds, (5) plant biopotentials, (6) frequency of impulses emitted by an electricity?generating fish, (7) eating behavior of mice, (8) person's reaction time, and (9) parameters of human EEG.
Anomalous Mental Phenomena Research in Russia and the Former Soviet Union: A Follow Up
Larissa Vilenskaya & Edwin C. May, Ph.D.
(Subtle Energies Volume 4, Number 3, pp. 231-250, 1992)
ABSTRACT: We describe our further exploration into research of anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). We visited numerous research centers in major cities of Russia and the Ukraine, met with leading researchers in the field, visited their laboratories, and participated in some experiments. In their research, our Russian colleagues emphasize studies of anomalous perturbation (AP), also termed psychokinesis (PK), and "distant mental effect" on biological systems (bio?AP or bio?PK). The experiments have been conducted in top academic and research institutions, including Moscow State University, St. Petersburg State University, and several research institutes of the Russian and Ukrainian Academies of Sciences. Although the quality of research varies considerably in different institutions, there are groups that have developed rigorous methodologies. We also consider the potential cultural impact on Russian AMP research. We conclude with a discussion of the causal model of AP studies vs. informational, perceptual model in relation to the Russian research.
Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis
Edwin C. May, Jessica M. Utts, Beverly S. Humphrey, Wanda L. W. Luke, Thane J. Frivold, and Virginia V. Trask
(Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, September 1990, pp: 193-228)
ABSTRACT: Fuzzy set technology is applied to the ongoing research question of how to automate the analysis of remote-viewing data. Fuzzy sets were invented to describe, in a formal way, the subjectivity inherent in human reasoning. Applied to remote-viewing analysis, the technique involves a quantitative encoding of target and response material and provides a formal comparison. In this progress report, the accuracy of a response is defined as the percent of the intended target material that is described correctly. The reliability is defined as the percent of the response that was correct. The assessment of the remote-viewing quality is denned as the product of accuracy and reliability, called the figure of merit The procedure is applied to a test set of six remote-viewing trials. A comparison of the figures of merit with the subjective assessments of 37 independent analysts shows good agreement. The fuzzy set technology is also used to provide a quantitative definition of target orthogonality.
Decision Augmentation Theory
Edwin C. May, Jessica M. Utts, and S. James P. Spottiswoode
(Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 59, September 1995, pp: 195-220)
ABSTRACT: Decision augmentation theory (DAT) holds that humans integrate information obtained by anomalous cognition into the usual decision process. The result is that, to a statistical degree, such decisions are biased toward volitional outcomes. We introduce our model and show that the domain over which it is applicable is within a few standard deviations from chance. We contrast the theory's experimental consequences with those of models that treat anomalous effects as due to a force. We derive mathematical expressions for DAT and force-like models using two distributions, normal and binomial. DAT is testable both retrospectively and prospectively, and we provide statistical power curves to assist in the experimental design of such tests. We show that the experimental consequences of our theory are different from those of force-like models except for one special case.
Applications of Decision Augmentation Theory
Edwin C. May, S. James P. Spottiswoode, Jessica M. Utts, and Christine L. James
(Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 59, September 1995, pp: 221-250)
ABSTRACT: Decision augmentation theory (DAT) provides an informational mechanism for a class of anomalous mental phenomena that have hitherto been viewed as being caused by a force-like mechanism. Under specifiable conditions, DATs predictions for statistical anomalous perturbation databases are different from those of all force-like mechanisms. For large random number generator databases, DAT predicts a zero slope for a least squares fit to the (z^2 , n) scatter diagram, where n is the number of bits resulting from a single run and z is the resulting z score. We find a slope of (1.73 ± 3.19) X 10^-6 (t= 0.543, df= 126, p = .295) for the historical binary RNG database, which strongly suggests that some informational mechanism is responsible for the anomaly. In a two sequence length analysis of a limited set of RNG data from the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research laboratory, we find that a force-like explanation misses the observed data by 8.6 Sigma; however, the observed data are within 1.1 sigma of the DAT prediction. We also apply DAT to one pseudo-RNG study and find that its predicted slope is not significantly different from the expected value for an informational mechanism. We review and comment on six published articles that discussed DATs earlier formalism (i.e., intuitive data sorting). We found two studies that support a force-like mechanism. Our analysis of Brand's 1990 hemolysis study confirms his finding in favor of an influence model over a selection one (p = .023), and Braud and Schlitz (1989) demonstrated a force-like interaction in their remote staring experiment (p = .020). We provide six circumstantial arguments against an influence hypothesis. Our anomalous cognition research suggests that the quality of the data is proportional to the total change of Shannon entropy. We demonstrate that the change of Shannon entropy of a binary sequence from chance is independent of sequence length; thus, we suggest that a fundamental argument supports DAT over influence models. In our conclusion, we suggest that, except for one special case, the physical RNG database cannot be explained by any influence model, and that contradicting evidence from two experiments on biological systems should inspire more investigations in a way that would allow valid DAT analyses.
ESP and the Brain: Current Status
Edwin C. May
(3rd Symposium: Behind and Beyond the Brain, 321-352)
ABSTRACT: Serious research into extrasensory perception (ESP) has been conducted since the 1930's, and a number of different protocols have been established to elicit the phenomenon. The large database to date has been analyzed by critics and statisticians alike, and the consensus is that the result meets generally accepted criteria for evidence of a statistically based, information transfer anomaly. We provide a brief overview of three of the most common procedures and their results as the basis for the justification to engage in a search for a central nervous system (CNS) correlate to ESP. Our search for a CNS response to an ESP stimulus began in 1973 when we found that alpha band (8 to 12 Hz) power changed significantly concomitant with a remote and isolated flashing-light (i.e., 16 Hz) stimulus. Even though there was statistically significant evidence of a change in alpha power, the single participant in the study "was unable to demonstrate cognitively in which epochs the remote light was flashing. In addition, there was considerable ambiguity as to the EEG lead and direction of the alpha power change for the observed significant effects. That is, significant increases or decreases of in-band alpha power were observed on different electrodes at different times. Thus we abandoned this line of investigation until 1986. At that time, we used magnetoencephalographic techniques to search for evoked-response-fields occurring concomitant with a remote flashing sinusoidal stimulus. Although the initial results were encouraging in that we apparently detected significant spontaneous primary alpha phase shifts, we were unable to replicate our findings. Continuing our search in 1994, we conducted an experiment to detect event-related desynchronizations (ERD's) resulting from an ESP stimulus. Three subjects contributed a total of 70 trials during which both ESP and EEG data were collected. The ESP data, which have been blind judged by an established rank-order method, yielded independently significant results for two of the three receivers, and the overall ESP result was significant at p=0.006 (ES = 0.303). Using a cross correlation technique, which was twice as sensitive as standard signal averaging, we did not observe any evidence for an ERD in response to an ESP stimulus. Our analysis technique was sensitive enough to detect a 20% decrease from prestimulus alpha power1. We will summarize our previous experiments and discuss a number of possible explanations for this result.
Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition Experiments
Nevin D. Lantz, Wanda L. W. Luke, and Edwin C. May
(Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 58, September 1994, pp: 286-302)
ABSTRACT: The ganzfeld experiments as summarized by Bem and Honorton (1994) suggest that using dynamic targets produces stronger results than using static ones. Bem and Honorton, however, only analyzed ganzfeld studies that included the use of a sender. Because a sender is not a necessary requirement hi forced-choice trials, we designed and carried out a study to see if a sender is required in nonganzfeld, free-response trials. In the first of two experiments, five experienced receivers participated hi 40 trials each, 10 in each condition of a 2x2 design to explore sender and target type. We observed significant effects for static targets (exact sum-of-rank probability of p < .0073, effect size = 0.248, n = 100), chance results for dynamic targets (p < .500, effect size = 0.000, n = 100), and no interaction effects between sender and target-type conditions. One receiver slightly favored the no-sender condition, F(l,36) = 4.43, p < .04, whereas another slightly favored static targets, F(l,36) = 5.47, p < .04. We speculate that these surprising results (i.e., favoring static over dynamic targets) arose, in part, because of the difference between a topically unbounded dynamic target pool and a topically restrictive static pool. In a second experiment, we redesigned the dynamic pool to match more closely the properties of the static pool. Four of the receivers from the first study participated in at least 20 trials each, 10 in each target-type condition. No senders were used throughout this experiment. We observed a significant increase in anomalous cognition for the new dynamic targets, £(143) = 3.06, p < 1.3x 10~ , and a significant increase hi anomalous cognition for the static targets, £(143) = 1.68, p<. 047. We conclude that a sender is not a necessary requirement for free-response anomalous cognition. A rank-order analysis showed no target-type dependencies in the second study. On the basis of an analysis by May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994b), we believe a fundamental argument suggests mat hi free-response anomalous cognition experiments, dynamic targets should be better than static ones.
Managing the Target-Pool Bandwidth: Possible Noise Reduction for Anomalous Cognition Experiments
Edwin C. May, S. James P. Spottiswoode, and Christine L. James
(Journal of Parapsychology Vol. 58, pp. 303-313, 1994)
ABSTRACT: Lantz and colleagues recently reported in the first of two studies that experienced receivers from die Cognitive Sciences Laboratory produced significant evidence for anomalous cognition (AC) of static targets but showed little evidence for AC of dynamic targets. This result was surprising: It was directly opposite to the results that were derived from the 1994 Bem and Honorton ganzfeld database. In Lantz et al.'s experiment, the topics of the dynamic targets were virtually unlimited, whereas die topics for the static targets were constrained in content, size of cognitive elements, and range of affect In a second experiment, they redesigned the target pools to correct this imbalance and observed significant improvement of AC functioning. We incorporate these findings into a definition of target-pool bandwidth and propose that die proper selection of bandwidth will lead to a reduction of incorrect information in free-response AC.
Feedback Considerations in Anomalous Cognition Experiments
Edwin C. May, Nevin D. Lantz, and Tom Piantineda
(Journal of Parapsychology Vol. 60, pp. 211-226, 1996)
ABSTRACT: To determine from what time frame the data from anomalous cognition (AC) originate, we have examined the role of precognition and feedback on the quality of AC. In an otherwise standard AC protocol, we displayed feedback tachistoscopicauy to receivers. The cognitive awareness of the feedback experience was minimal, and 2 of the 8 intensities used for visual display of the feedback were below subliminal threshold. We hypothesized a number of possible relationships between feedback intensity and AC quality, including one based on precognition (i.e., the data originated from the future feedback). Four viewers contributed 40 trials each (5 at 8 different intensity bands). Using a sum-of-ranks statistic, 2 viewers produced independently significant evidence of remote viewing (i.e., the binomial probability of 2 hits in 4 trials with an event probability of .05 is .014). None of the data showed significant correlation of feedback intensity with AC quality. This result is discussed with regard to precognition in general and the troublesome unfalsifiability aspect of truly goal-oriented precognition.
Skin Conductance Prestimulus Response: Analysis, Artifacts and a Pilot Study
S. James P. Spottiswoode and E. C. May
(Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 617-647, 2003)
ABSTRACT
revious studies have suggested that the human autonomic nervous system responds to stimuli 2-3 seconds before presentation. In these studies randomly chosen photographs with high and low affectivity were presented to participants. Ensemble averaging of skin conductance in the prestimulus epochs showed a differential response between high and low affectivity photographs. In our protocol the problem of idiosyncratic responses to pictorial stimuli was avoided by using audio startle stimuli. Stimulus type was determined just before presentation by a true random generator. Participants heard 20 stimuli per session with a 50% chance of an audio startle as against a silent control. Our dependent variable was the proportions of 3-second epochs prior to audio and control stimuli in which a skin conductance response, that is a minimum in skin conductance followed by a maximum, occurred. We found a significant effect (N = 125, Z-score (Z) = 3.27, effect size (ES) = 0.0901 0.0275, p = 5.4 10-4). Explanations for this result as an artifact were examined and rejected. We show that a significant result from an average-based epoch analysis in this type of experiment is not a necessary requirement to demonstrate significant evidence for a prestimulus response. The American Institutes for Research Review of the Department of Defense's STARGAT Program: A Commentary
Edwin C. May
(Journal of Parapsychology Vol. 60, pp. 3-23, 1996)
ABSTRACT: As a result of a Congressionally Directed Activity, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) conducted an evaluation of a 24-year, government-sponsored program to investigate ESP and its potential use within die intelligence community. The American Institutes for Research (AIR) was contracted to conduct the review of both research and operations. Their September 29, 1995 final report was released to the public November 28, 1995. As a result of AIR's assessment, the CIA concluded that a statistically significant effect had been demonstrated in the laboratory but that there was no case in which ESP had provided data that had ever been used to guide intelligence operations. This paper is a critical review of AIR's methodology and conclusions. It will be shown that there is compelling evidence that the CIA set the outcome with regard to intelligence usage before the evaluation had begun. This was accomplished by limiting the research and operations data sets to exclude positive findings, by purposefully not interviewing historically significant participants, by ignoring previous extensive Department of Defense program reviews, and by using the questionable National Research Council's investigation of parapsychology as the starting point for their review. Although there may have been political and administrative justification for the CIA not to accept the government's in-house program for the operational use of anomalous cognition, these external considerations appeared to drive the outcome of the evaluation. As a result, they have come to the wrong conclusion with regard to the use of anomalous cognition in intelligence operations and have significantly underestimated the robustness of the basic phenomenon.
Lucianarchy, your list looks awfully like the one Winston Wu sent me once.
Only once.
All the same old suspects, all the same old tired arguments. All the same old avoidance of the issues and facts.
Let's see what the LEADING researchers from your group are ACTUALLY finding these days:
http://www.princeton.edu/~pear/IU.pdf
Only once.
All the same old suspects, all the same old tired arguments. All the same old avoidance of the issues and facts.
Let's see what the LEADING researchers from your group are ACTUALLY finding these days:
http://www.princeton.edu/~pear/IU.pdf
Further in same article:
UndercoverElephant
Pachyderm of a Thousand Faces
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apoger said:
....and would not believe it if he saw it.
It's true, no?
Most of the people here calling themselves "skeptics" would not actually believe their own eyes if they saw paranormal phenomena. They "know" it doesn't exist, therefore anything they saw that said otherwise would be "rationalised", no matter how extra-ordinary the "rationalisation"? [skeptic thinks : dumb question, I could never actually be presented with such evidence, because I know it doesn't exist]
I met a guy on philosophyforums.com calling himself "180 proof". I asked him if he would believe in the supernatural if he was up the mountain with Moses when the stone tablets appeared out of thin air. He said no, he still wouldn't believe it, even if he saw it. At that point I stopped arguing with him. Now - there is nothing wrong with having made your mind up conclusively, but let's not pretend to be "skeptical" when we mean "we will never believe this".
JustGeoff said:
....and would not believe it if he saw it.
It's true, no?
Most of the people here calling themselves "skeptics" would not actually believe their own eyes if they saw paranormal phenomena. They "know" it doesn't exist, therefore anything they saw that said otherwise would be "rationalised", no matter how extra-ordinary the "rationalisation"? [skeptic thinks : dumb question, I could never actually be presented with such evidence, because I know it doesn't exist]
I met a guy on philosophyforums.com calling himself "180 proof". I asked him if he would believe in the supernatural if he was up the mountain with Moses when the stone tablets appeared out of thin air. He said no, he still wouldn't believe it, even if he saw it. At that point I stopped arguing with him. Now - there is nothing wrong with having made your mind up conclusively, but let's not pretend to be "skeptical" when we mean "we will never believe this".
I don't think your generalization is that prevalent.
Though I do think that it's convenient to dismiss skeptics with a "They refuse to accept it!" instead of actually facing the issues.
UndercoverElephant
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Ratman_tf said:
Hi Ratman,
Personally, I'm not scared of "facing the issues". I have quit my job to study a degree in Philosophy and Cognitive Science in September, which is about as "facing the issues" as it gets.
All generalisations are only generalisations. I am a reformed skeptic. By that, I mean I am probably still skeptical of many many things (telling the future by reading palms, newspaper horoscopes, most religions) but I am a lot less certain of my disbelief than I once was. Basically, I used to "know" I was right, but now I am not so sure. I suspect that most of the people who post here, be they "believers" or "skeptics", are posting because deep down, they "know" they are correct. No evidence is likely to change their mind, because accepting the evidence is not just a matter of accepting the evidence - in both cases it would require a total re-evaluation of their entire belief system and understanding of reality to accept the evidence. There are strings attached.
UndercoverElephant
Pachyderm of a Thousand Faces
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Zep said:
George W. Bush.
JustGeoff said:
Well, I wasn't talking about anything like that. I was talking about the tendency for believers to side step the issue of the quality of evidence and go down the 'skeptics are meanies' road, during a debate.
Well, I can't help that. Wether it's true or not.
I know this was addressed to Ratman, but you are starting out with a major presupposition here: that skeptics have a firm "belief" system that they refuse to give up despite evidence. Like, say, fundie religions.JustGeoff said:
The correction is that skeptics have a firm belief in a method of discovering and examination, that has proven itself worthy many times over. This being the "scientific method" - of itself it holds and perpetuates no "beliefs" at all. Nor is it always incompatible with other belief systems - many skeptics here hold religious beliefs to some extent, for example. The scientific method says nothing at all about such supernatural beliefs one way or the other.
What you seem to be confusing is the belief in a "system" versus adherence to a proven "method" of proof.
Just Geoff
It sure bugs a lot of sceptics that the paranormal woo woos have managed to get this ridiculous “fantasy” idea about how sceptics are intractable into the minds of reasonable sounding fellows like yourself.
It is a true victory for them than instead of providing evidence their blathering cries of “bully” and “unfair” and “but lots of people say so”.. have resulted in sceptisc having to defend their REASONABLE position of … “provide evidence”
I personally would LOVE to have something paranormal proved.. I don’t want to die, I want to have a God, I want amazing powers.. however I am realistic enough to ask for some modicum of proof.
Over time I have developed a default position which I think most sceptics have…
As everything EVER proven has had a natural (mundane) explanation it is fair to assume that everything that is unexplained will have a natural (mundane) explanation.
Therefore if I saw some amazing thing I could not explain I would “assume” it had a natural explanation. I would look for a Natural explanation.. if I did not find one I would continue to assume a natural occurrence that I (or others) could not explain… if a supernatural occurrence could be proven then I WOULD accept it.
Given the previous statement what is wrong with that !
It sure bugs a lot of sceptics that the paranormal woo woos have managed to get this ridiculous “fantasy” idea about how sceptics are intractable into the minds of reasonable sounding fellows like yourself.
It is a true victory for them than instead of providing evidence their blathering cries of “bully” and “unfair” and “but lots of people say so”.. have resulted in sceptisc having to defend their REASONABLE position of … “provide evidence”
I personally would LOVE to have something paranormal proved.. I don’t want to die, I want to have a God, I want amazing powers.. however I am realistic enough to ask for some modicum of proof.
Over time I have developed a default position which I think most sceptics have…
As everything EVER proven has had a natural (mundane) explanation it is fair to assume that everything that is unexplained will have a natural (mundane) explanation.
Therefore if I saw some amazing thing I could not explain I would “assume” it had a natural explanation. I would look for a Natural explanation.. if I did not find one I would continue to assume a natural occurrence that I (or others) could not explain… if a supernatural occurrence could be proven then I WOULD accept it.
Given the previous statement what is wrong with that !
Lothian
should be banned
A special permanent Ink pen no less.Psiload said:
My money is on the spoon starting to bend as he walked towards the 6 years old and stopping just before he showed it to her but without anything other than an anecdote we will never know.
And this is the problem with Luci’s examples but to be fair she is better than that nutter who died recently. Montague Keen used to quote evidence that was generally over 100 years old. OK Luci has nothing this century but it is a bit more recent. One difference between pesudoscience and real science however is that pseudoscience says this is what DID happen please explain. Real science says this is what DOES happen, have a look your self and try to explain.
I was interested in her quote about the ways science accepts new ideas. It is obviously a massive massive generalisation however. Science, as Claus, says will accept anything that has good evidence.
While Luci doesn’t give examples of the acceptance process in action it is clear how it works. Someone says wrap a wire in a coil and spin it in a magnetic field and measure the current flow, lo and behold everyone does it and it works, electricity accepted instantly.
So never mind the past tell me an experiment that can be done now that shows that you have an effect.
Lucianarchy
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Zep said:
Good URL Zep. If you actually read the full article, you will see that PEAR are extremely positive about the results. Their conclusion is that you can't catch a butterfly in a bear-trap.
Apart from suggesting you re read the article a few times in order to dispell your obvious cognitive dissonance, you would do well to take a look at this too: