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Netanyahu wins reelection (maybe)

Those exit polls all say Labour Zionist Union and Likud go head-to-head. However, on the official site of the Central Elections Commission, there's now quite a different picture.

With 1.2 million votes counted out of a possible 5.9 million (and a counted turnout of 65%), Likud is clearly in the lead with 25% of the votes while the Zionist Union only has 19%.
 
According to the official election site, with 61% of the votes counted, the gap has become a bit smaller, with Likud at 23.73%, but it seems still out of the question that Zionist Union will close it. The polls were way off - and even the exit poll.
 
ddt said:
According to the official election site, with 61% of the votes counted, the gap has become a bit smaller, with Likud at 23.73%, but it seems still out of the question that Zionist Union will close it. The polls were way off - and even the exit poll.
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I attribute this phenomenon to some Likud voters being mildly ashamed of what they were doing, and giving false information when questioned about it.
 
theprestige said:
It's much more likely that some Zionist Union voters were ashamed, and lied when asked.
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If ZU voters had falsely stated they were voting Likud, that would have exaggerated Likud's performance in the polls, not understated it. Likud did better than even the exit polls suggested, which may indicate that some Likud voters concealed their real allegiance.
 
The differences between exit polls and real results are weird, but I doubt that they are caused by voters who falsely stated who they will vote to in the exit polls.

The pollsters close their exit poll booths a couple of hours before the end of the election - so that will have their polls ready in time. Perhaps some section of voters decided to go and vote late in greater numbers.

In any case, this is the second time in my life where I go to sleep after seeing the polls, and find a very different, and not welcomed, result in the morning. Not happy.
 
BTW, if one compares the election results to the previous one, based on voters bloc, then we find that nothing really changed.

Right wing, center, and left wing blocks more or less kept the same number of seats. Changes were inside said blocks.

Ultimately, this was a pointless election campaign. One of the worst I can remember. The level of debate was astonishingly low.
 
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Election-Live-Blog-Follow-the-latest-updates-394059


"Hamas reacted to the results of Israel's election on Tuesday, saying that there is no difference between Israeli political parties, because there is a consensus among them to deny the rights of the Palestinian people and continue aggression against them. Hamas spokesman Sami Abu-Zuhri said the "Palestinian resistance is strong and capable of making its mark. The leaders of the occupation must think again about their stances after the failure in Gaza."

Meanwhile Bill Kristol tweets:

BREAKING: British PM Cameron, in close reelection contest, has called WH to ask that Obama intervene against him.
 
I'm no big fan of Bibi, but have to admit I'm a little amused by the election result.

The whole world seems to think he's the worst thing since Rick Astley, and predicted his downfall. Obama wants him gone, Europe wants him gone, the Israeli pollsters said he was a goner.

Nope, he's here to stay.

It doesn't matter for the peace process IMHO, see Applecorped's Hamas quote above.

The only thing that will satisfy the Palestinian side is Israel's national suicide, and nobody is running on that platform AFAIK.
 
NetanyaWHO?

From the White House:

"We want to congratulate the Israeli people for the democratic process for the election that they just engaged in with all the parties that engaged in that election. As you know now, the hard work of coalition building begins. Sometimes that takes a couple of weeks. And we're going to give space to the formation of that coalition government and we're not going to weigh in one way or another except to say that the United States and Israel have a historic and close relationship and that will continue going forward," Simas said."

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/wh-avoids-congratulating-bibi_890790.html
 
Eddie Dane said:
I'm no big fan of Bibi, but have to admit I'm a little amused by the election result.

The whole world seems to think he's the worst thing since Rick Astley, and predicted his downfall. Obama wants him gone, Europe wants him gone, the Israeli pollsters said he was a goner.

Nope, he's here to stay.

It doesn't matter for the peace process IMHO, see Applecorped's Hamas quote above.

The only thing that will satisfy the Palestinian side is Israel's national suicide, and nobody is running on that platform AFAIK.
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Agreed ..to a point..but Bibi's pointless antagonzing of the Arabs with his promise to increase West Bank Settlements and refusal to accept a Two State solution will only make things worse.
Radicals empower other radicals.
Bibi's election will undermine the efforts of more moderate Palestinians, and increase Hamas's populairty.
High price to pay for a laugh at the pollsters.
The rise of the Right worldwide is beginning to scare me.
 
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dudalb said:
Agreed ..to a point..but Bibi's pointless antagonzing of the Arabs with his promise to increase West Bank Settlements and refusal to accept a Two State solution will only make things worse.
Radicals empower other radicals.
Bibi's election will undermine the efforts of more moderate Palestinians, and increase Hamas's populairty.
High price to pay for a laugh at the pollsters.
The rise of the Right worldwide is beginning to scare me.
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Unfortunately, I don't think that there is a powerful moderate Palestinian faction or possible non-terrorist Palestinian state available for at least a generation. So I don't know that Netanyahu is actually putting anything in jeopardy.
 
Giz said:
Unfortunately, I don't think that there is a powerful moderate Palestinian faction or possible non-terrorist Palestinian state available for at least a generation. So I don't know that Netanyahu is actually putting anything in jeopardy.
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So you think that "non-terrorism" is going to be achieved by boosting illegal settlements, or by this?

Netenyahu evidently intends to expel the entire Palestinian population. I don't suppose that puts in jeopardy anything you give a toss about, as long as Israel is strong enough to pull it off.
 
dudalb said:
Agreed ..to a point..but Bibi's pointless antagonzing of the Arabs with his promise to increase West Bank Settlements and refusal to accept a Two State solution will only make things worse.
Radicals empower other radicals.
Bibi's election will undermine the efforts of more moderate Palestinians, and increase Hamas's populairty.
High price to pay for a laugh at the pollsters.
The rise of the Right worldwide is beginning to scare me.
Click to expand...

The settlements are totally retarded proposition.

They sabotage any peace process, are horrible PR and the only upside is a bit of cheap housing, so far removed from Israel's economic centres, that only recent immigrants want t live there.

They don't even really achieve any of the cynical objectives like expansion or ethnic cleansing.
Usually they are blocks of flats within existing settlements.

I'm not approving. Just pointing out that they are a horrible cost-benefit deal on top of being just plain wrong.

Their main function seems to be: pandering to the ultra right wing and pissing off the Palestinians.

Bibi got only 23% of the vote.

I'm always amazed how the political right manages to build a big strong party, and the left just fragments and splinters. See Forza Italia in Italy.

The right manages to unify and the left are so particular about their political flavour that they just fragment.

I have a book about the Spanish civil war and the list of leftist groups fighting the Fascists is just mind-boggling: Anarchists, Anarcho-Syndicalists, Syndycalised-Anarchists, and a whole bunch I can't remember.
 
Craig B said:
So you think that "non-terrorism" is going to be achieved by boosting illegal settlements, or by this?

Netenyahu evidently intends to expel the entire Palestinian population. I don't suppose that puts in jeopardy anything you give a toss about, as long as Israel is strong enough to pull it off.
Click to expand...

Well, the other muslim states have worked to eject them for a long time. I know a Palestinian Jordanian who can tell you all about how Jordan bulldozed his and other villages.

They are just another faction for everyone to hate on. The other muslim countries' current surface concern is a brief respite because diverting local hatred against Israel for hurting your poor bretheren Palestinians is easy to do. In time, they'll be back to Palestinians ain't your bretheren -- they're the filthy gypsies of the mid east who we need to purge.
 
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