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NAFFFFFTA

logger said:
The left used to be against this. It has decimated our manufacturing base, which was predicted, all to make a few rich men even richer. But of course the leftists here are for it now.
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No it hasn't, manufacturing in the U.S. is at an all-time high. Manufacturing employment is not (but it is up over a million (8%) on Obama's watch as compared to down six million (33%) on Dubya's watch) but that's due to increases in manufacturing efficiency.
 
The Don said:
No it hasn't, manufacturing in the U.S. is at an all-time high. Manufacturing employment is not (but it is up over a million (8%) on Obama's watch as compared to down six million (33%) on Dubya's watch) but that's due to increases in manufacturing efficiency.
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And increased automation. I visited a German foundry and electronic assembly with 30+ years apart, once as a youth, last year as a visitor. The difference was so jarring I felt like I was really becoming old. Today there was in the plant only very few people , mostly looking over the facility, quite a few engineer and machinist, only 4 or so blue collars, with the most people at shipping and receiving. It was like seeing a phantom ghost series of plant all empty or nearly.
 
Aepervius said:
And increased automation. I visited a German foundry and electronic assembly with 30+ years apart, once as a youth, last year as a visitor. The difference was so jarring I felt like I was really becoming old. Today there was in the plant only very few people , mostly looking over the facility, quite a few engineer and machinist, only 4 or so blue collars, with the most people at shipping and receiving. It was like seeing a phantom ghost series of plant all empty or nearly.
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I don't think that a lot of people realise that automation is at the point where it needs very few people to run very complex processes. Some processes can be done entirely by automation and have just one person controlling it, and they might not even be in the same building, or even the same site.

The sad thing is that most manufacturing companies will do exactly the same thing that Carrier is planning, and that is to use their tax cuts for increased investment in automation. The result won't be what Trump claims. Rather then more jobs in manufacturing, the US will see Automation costing more jobs, and Greg Hayes, the CEO of United Technologies, the parent company of air-conditioner manufacturer Carrier agrees. When asked about what they intended to do he responded...

Greg Hayes said:
Well, and again, if you think about what we talked about last week we’re going to make up $16 million investment in that factory in Indianapolis to automate to drive the cost down so that we can continue to be competitive. Now is it as cheap as moving to Mexico with lower cost labour? No. But we will make that plant competitive just because we’ll make the capital investments there. But what that ultimately means is there will be fewer jobs.
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acbytesla said:
It turns out I was wrong. Terminating a treaty is a Legislative action not an Executive action.



The case was ruled on by the US District Court of DC reversed on appeal by the appeals court and the Supreme Court vacated the appeals court decision making the District Court ruling the law of the land.
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Are you sure? Wikipedia's summary of the holding for this case is:

Whether President Carter could unilaterally break a defense treaty with the Republic of China without Senate approval was a political question and could not be reviewed by the court, as Congress had not issued a formal opposition. The case was dismissed.
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PhantomWolf said:
I don't think that a lot of people realise that automation is at the point where it needs very few people to run very complex processes. Some processes can be done entirely by automation and have just one person controlling it, and they might not even be in the same building, or even the same site.
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In another thread, ChrisBFRPKY insisted that the result of installing a machine in his place of work was replacing one person who did the job with three people, one to watch the machine, one to maintain the machine and one to program the machine.

Unless that company was uniquely badly run, I think he might be mis-remembering but that may be people's default view of automation which is why they don't appreciate that even if the manufacturing work "comes back" (even though those things weren't being manufactured 4 years ago - but that's a different issue) the number of jobs will be comparatively low.
 
And yet more jobs exist now then at any other time in history. And while wages have stagnated, innovation has improved the wealth of all of us (the Phone I am on now). What wealth percentile would you need to be in to give up this life for living in 1982 or 94?
 
BobTheCoward said:
And yet more jobs exist now then at any other time in history. And while wages have stagnated, innovation has improved the wealth of all of us (the Phone I am on now). What wealth percentile would you need to be in to give up this life for living in 1982 or 94?
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No fair using facts.
 
The Don said:
In another thread, ChrisBFRPKY insisted that the result of installing a machine in his place of work was replacing one person who did the job with three people, one to watch the machine, one to maintain the machine and one to program the machine.

Unless that company was uniquely badly run, I think he might be mis-remembering but that may be people's default view of automation which is why they don't appreciate that even if the manufacturing work "comes back" (even though those things weren't being manufactured 4 years ago - but that's a different issue) the number of jobs will be comparatively low.
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The reason automation is implemented is to improve efficiencies; one of the improvements is to lower labor costs. You may install a machine that takes three persons to operate, but you can bet it eliminates jobs somewhere in the operation. There would be no reason to take on the initial expense otherwise.
 
The Don said:
In another thread, ChrisBFRPKY insisted that the result of installing a machine in his place of work was replacing one person who did the job with three people, one to watch the machine, one to maintain the machine and one to program the machine.

Unless that company was uniquely badly run, I think he might be mis-remembering but that may be people's default view of automation which is why they don't appreciate that even if the manufacturing work "comes back" (even though those things weren't being manufactured 4 years ago - but that's a different issue) the number of jobs will be comparatively low.
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I realize that a stronger US work force may not go well for the UK, but at least the bust of Winston Churchill is back in the Oval Office. :)

Don't be concerned, Trump will work with the UK on trade deals to reward the Brexit folks. I expect to see more minis on the roads here.

And yes, that was my experience with a robot at SKF-USA. I fully realize automation tends to replace a few workers, yet closing down a factory and moving that factory elsewhere replaces them all. The Liberal argument worked for several years in the US, until we saw what had happened as a result. So, that is no longer the direction we will move. It's not personal, it's just business.

Chris B.
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
I realize that a stronger US work force may not go well for the UK, but at least the bust of Winston Churchill is back in the Oval Office. :)

Don't be concerned, Trump will work with the UK on trade deals to reward the Brexit folks. I expect to see more minis on the roads here.

And yes, that was my experience with a robot at SKF-USA. I fully realize automation tends to replace a few workers, yet closing down a factory and moving that factory elsewhere replaces them all. The Liberal argument worked for several years in the US, until we saw what had happened as a result. So, that is no longer the direction we will move. It's not personal, it's just business.

Chris B.
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The liberal argument? What liberal argument is that?

NAFTA was pushed by conservatives and business men, like the people that Trump has put in his cabinet.
 
ChrisBFRPKY said:
I realize that a stronger US work force may not go well for the UK, but at least the bust of Winston Churchill is back in the Oval Office. :)
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Irrelevant

ChrisBFRPKY said:
Don't be concerned, Trump will work with the UK on trade deals to reward the Brexit folks. I expect to see more minis on the roads here.
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..which will benefit the Germans immensely ;)


ChrisBFRPKY said:
And yes, that was my experience with a robot at SKF-USA. I fully realize automation tends to replace a few workers, yet closing down a factory and moving that factory elsewhere replaces them all. The Liberal argument worked for several years in the US, until we saw what had happened as a result. So, that is no longer the direction we will move. It's not personal, it's just business.

Chris B.
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Regarding the highlighted....

No, it's transformational. The amount of labour required to manufacture things is orders of magnitude lower than 40 years ago.

U.S. manufacturing output is at an all time high.
 
The Don said:
No, it's transformational. The amount of labour required to manufacture things is orders of magnitude lower than 40 years ago.

U.S. manufacturing output is at an all time high.
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Yeah, I have a manufacturing client who has increased his production two fold over the last few years and even expanded into a new facility. His staffing has increased very slightly. He simply bought better machines and more space to run them in. His growth plan for the next five years will quadruple his manufacturing capacity without increasing his staffing unless he decides he needs to add another shift for some machines. But that will mean quadruple wasn't enough.
 
October there were 144 million non farm employed in the US. In 1994 it was 116 million. We haven't reached the end of jobs yet.
 
BobTheCoward said:
October there were 144 million non farm employed in the US. In 1994 it was 116 million. We haven't reached the end of jobs yet.
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[#alternativefacts]
The U.S. economy is on its knees, the "true" unemployment rate is more than 35%, there fewer jobs now than there have ever been at any point in history.
[/#alternativefacts]

It doesn't matter whether you have hard statistics to counter that view, people "feel" it is the case, so it must be true :rolleyes:
 
shuize said:
Did Trump just lock in the union vote for 2020?
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Oh, short answer, "yes" with an "if." Long answer, "no" with a "but."


If Trump imposed tariffs accounting for the unnatural disadvantages of low
wages, ignoring environmental costs, poor working conditions then definitely
he gets the union vote. But, in reality, I doubt he could even manage an across
the board 50% import tariff. It would do a world of good though.
 
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