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My Predictions about Coming Debate

Skeptic

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Palin is going to do better than expected. Why? This has nothing to do with Palin herself. It would apply equally to most candidates. It is, again, "regression to mean". Let us assume that, like most politicians, Palin is an "8" with speech/interview giving. After a really great "10" speech in the RNC -- with no opposition -- she has had two "6" interviews with unsympathetic interviewers. (Duh.) In a more neutral setting, and gaining some experience, it is likely that she'll come out back as an "8" in the VP debate.

It *could* not happen, of course--one need not use regression to mean to fall into the "gambler's fallacy" (e.g., the view that if someone's usual performance level is X then he is "due" to have a good--or bad--performance after, say, three sub-X or above-X performances in a row). But I think it's likely.

I am buying neither the "Palin is great, the liberal media hates her" nor the "now we know she is a stupid broad" rants. Both are based on one or two data points--a sure sign of hasty generalizations that fit with one's preconceptions. If you think Palin is a "10" (or a "2") by only looking at the things you agree with about her, you only look like a fool when she turns out to be a "7" or an "8", as she probably would. Of course, then--to cover up your own embarrasment--you spend most of your time attacking the STUPID guys on the other side who claimed she was a "2" (or a "10"). But I digress.

I also predict that if this comes to pass, it might well "revitalize" the McCain campain, and cause a lot of bruhahaha about how he is a "strong finisher", etc. etc. on the Republican side... while also causing a lot of bruhahaha about how she was "coached", a "puppet", etc. on the Democratic side. As usual, neither of these "deep analyses into the root causes" would be true--it would just be looking for deterministic causes for what is essentially a random walk.

Hey, just my view. Perhaps I'm wrong.
 
I am a strong liberal so take that as you will but watching her perform in not just the recent interviews but clips from the Alaska debate along with pre selection interviews I believe that her average is about a 4 at best and it was the Convention speech that was the outlier. In the clips of the Alaska debate I have seen she did not appear to understand the questions given to her much like the recent interviews granted once she did on the subjects she cared about (abortion) she gave a coherent answer. I think her performance in the debate will come down to the moderator. If the moderator asks straight forward questions with no depth required and no follow ups Palin will do well but if the moderator pushes for an answer with depth about non culture war questions I see nothing but repeat of the CBS interview.
 
Skeptic,

I tend to agree with you in most respects.

My scenario plays like this:

  • Palin actually holds her own in the debate, surprising pundits from both sides.
  • Her good showing results in a minor swing in the polls for McCain.
  • Encouraged by her strong showing, and the resulting surge, McCain's campaign makes an unusual request for another VP debate, to take place in the next couple of weeks. McCain's campaign is revitalized.
  • Obama's campaign, somewhat taken aback by Palin's strong showing in the debate, and the resulting minor poll swing in McCain's favor, offers no immediate response.
  • Second Prez debate is a virtual tie, but public opinion has swayed, and McCain is polled as the marginal winner.
  • Another small bump in the polls results. Obama and McCain are back to a dead heat.
  • Obama's campaign relents, and offers another VP debate, which is agreed to by the McCain camp.
  • The second VP debate is a freer format, and Palin doesn't do as well. Biden goes more on the offensive, but is generally seen as gruff and oppressive. Palin's poor performance is mitigated by Biden's perceived badgering, and the debate is publicly viewed as a wash.
  • The third and final presidential debate is another near tie, but there is no significant bump in the polls for either candidate.
  • On election day, undecideds end up going against Obama more than expected (a racial component perhaps, or back-of-mind reluctance to change?), and McCain wins a squeaker.

Just a possible scenario.

Remember, you read it here first.
 
Skeptic ... But Palin has more than just a problem answering questions in a coherent, linear fashion, she actually has a habit of lying too.

Did you hear one of the latest interview segments, whereby Couric asks her if she reads newspapers and she says says that she reads all of them? And then avoids naming even one?

My confidence in her scoring a 4 in this debate continues to get challenged each time another piece of footage is released.

Sometimes a candidate really is that inept when it comes to depth of political knowledge. That means that the "2" and "3"s their earning from the public, might actually be a reflection of reality, and not hysterical bias. ... Or not.

My prediction for the debate? Palin will do marginally well for who she is. She will get knocked off her feet a couple times, at least; enough to spark another round of Palin-youtubemania. Biden will come across as relatively normal, chatty as usual and might throw out one of his memorable, clever, snappy one-liners that will also make the youtube rounds. He will be aggressive in what he says, but it will be aimed at McCain.

I refuse to go beyond that in my prediction. At least in this post ;) ... Far too many factors involved re: the election and lots that can happen in 30+ days that was totally unexpected. Wagler, you're braver than me.
 
And quite a few people would say your odds might be about 50/50 at this point. Not bad.
 
Wangler said:
My scenario plays like this:

  • Palin actually holds her own in the debate, surprising pundits from both sides. [Yep. As one commentator said, "If she speaks English, she wins.]
  • Her good showing results in a minor swing in the polls for McCain. [Yep. Maybe not even minor.]
  • Encouraged by her strong showing, and the resulting surge, McCain's campaign makes an unusual request for another VP debate, to take place in the next couple of weeks. [Nope. They will not in any way jeopardize their small win. They'll let it stand.] McCain's campaign is revitalized. [A bit]
  • Obama's campaign, somewhat taken aback by Palin's strong showing in the debate, and the resulting minor poll swing in McCain's favor, offers no immediate response. [Nope. NO action taken by one side in this campiagn is left with no response by the other. The Elephants have practiced this since day one while the Donkeys have learned their lesson from Kerry's nonresponse to the Swifties.]
  • Second Prez debate is a virtual tie, but public opinion has swayed, and McCain is polled as the marginal winner. [I don't think so. McCain tied his horse to the bailout and it failed.]
  • Another small bump in the polls results. Obama and McCain are back to a dead heat. [Nope]
  • Obama's campaign relents, and offers another VP debate, which is agreed to by the McCain camp. [No way...if for no other reason than the mechanics are impossible. And it benefits neither. If Palin wins the first, they will not want to risk a second while the Donkeys will not want a second go. If Palin loses, neither gains by a rematch.]
  • The second VP debate is a freer format, and Palin doesn't do as well. Biden goes more on the offensive, but is generally seen as gruff and oppressive. Palin's poor performance is mitigated by Biden's perceived badgering, and the debate is publicly viewed as a wash. [Won't happen.]
  • The third and final presidential debate is another near tie, but there is no significant bump in the polls for either candidate. [My chrystal ball is getting fuzzier as we go along here.]
  • On election day, undecideds end up going against Obama more than expected (a racial component perhaps, or back-of-mind reluctance to change?), and McCain wins a squeaker. [You may be right.]
Just a possible scenario.

Remember, you read it here first.
Click to expand...
See my comments in red. If you're right we'll all genuflect in the presence of your awesome predictive powers. If not, there's hell to pay. Remember, you read it here first. :)
 
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Alright, I'll take the plunge, skipping the meal and jumping to the dessert: I think Obama will likely win. I have a hard time believing most or even part of those fanatical Obamites will jump ship at the last moment.

As for tepid supporters who might turn on Obama because of his ethnicity or his mythical Muslim faith, the same could be said for those who may suddenly have misgivings about voting for a seemingly under-qualified female VP who is one old man's heart beat away from the OO. In fact, some men won't vote for McCain/Palin simply because she is a female, period. Women, like Blacks, are still political minorities.

Some polls have the number of Pub defectors at around 19% - Pubs/Conserv.s who say they are fed up w the party and don't like McCain and are voting for Obama in protest, as a message to their base. Of course there are also a similar number of Dems that say they will vote McCain.

I still think the younger people, especially college students w/cells, are being under-represented in the polls. Have met and keep reading about so many that are downright excited to be voting for Obama.

Haven't run into anyone of any age who is gungho about McCain (not to say there aren't any). I think there's a serious enthusiasm gap though that shouldn't be under-estimated when considering who might win this thing.
 
based on her recent interviews, Palin has difficulty regurgitating a prerehearsed answer to an expected question: she must have been prepped on global warming, for example. How is this going to change over the next 2 days?

I do not see her interview performances as a 5 or a 6: maybe a 3. If she can pull that up to a 5, and throw in a few sound bites that energize the rural and blue collar voters, then I think that is about the best we can expect.
 
What I think is probably a good analysis of Palin's debating skill/style ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26967325/

Her debating style was rarely confrontational, and she appeared confident.

...

But just as she does now, Ms. Palin often spoke in generalities and showed scant aptitude for developing arguments beyond a talking point or two. Her sentences were distinguished by their repetition of words, by the use of the phrase “here in Alaska” and for gaps. On paper, her sentences would have been difficult to diagram.

John Bitney, the policy director for her campaign for governor and the main person who helped prepare her for debates, said her repetition of words was “her way of running down the clock as her mind searches for where she wants to go.”

These tendencies could fuzz her meaning and lead her into linguistic cul-de-sacs. She often used less than her allotted time and ended her answers abruptly.

...

When questioned about the nuts and bolts of governing, Ms. Palin tended to avoid specifics and instead fell back on her core values: a broadly conservative philosophy and a can-do spirit.

...

These patterns could help explain why the McCain campaign negotiated for less time for discussion in her debate Thursday with Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware than the presidential candidates had in their debate last week.

...

“In tone, manner and sometimes even language, she treated every issue exactly the same,” Michael Carey, the former editorial page editor of The Anchorage Daily News, wrote in an essay about Ms. Palin. “She gave no suggestion that some issues are of higher priority than others. Her voice was cheerful, up-tempo, optimistic, never off key but always in the same key.”
Click to expand...
 
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Wangler said:
[*]The second VP debate is a freer format, and Palin doesn't do as well. Biden goes more on the offensive, but is generally seen as gruff and oppressive. Palin's poor performance is mitigated by Biden's perceived badgering, and the debate is publicly viewed as a wash.
Click to expand...


There is only one VP debate.
 
Keep in mind, this debate (just like last weeks) is happening when the Congress is debating the "rescue/bailout" package ... again. I suspect we'll get a lot of specific questions regarding the economy and such. This could work to Palin's advantage if she shows some knowledge in this area. If the debate involves a lot of foreign policy issues, Biden will have a natural advantage just as McCain did.
 
Skeptic said:
Palin is going to do better than expected. Why? This has nothing to do with Palin herself. It would apply equally to most candidates. It is, again, "regression to mean". Let us assume that, like most politicians, Palin is an "8" with speech/interview giving. After a really great "10" speech in the RNC -- with no opposition -- she has had two "6" interviews with unsympathetic interviewers. (Duh.) In a more neutral setting, and gaining some experience, it is likely that she'll come out back as an "8" in the VP debate.

It *could* not happen, of course--one need not use regression to mean to fall into the "gambler's fallacy" (e.g., the view that if someone's usual performance level is X then he is "due" to have a good--or bad--performance after, say, three sub-X or above-X performances in a row). But I think it's likely.
Click to expand...

No reason to expect this debate to regress to a mean where ever that is.

Palin may do better than expected simply because expectations are so low and because some people who are very good at what they do will have spent a lot of time coaching her on how to get through it. With obama get a reasonable result from the first debate Biden has the option of playing it safe which might result in getting a draw but that would be somewhat supriseing.

I also predict that if this comes to pass, it might well "revitalize" the McCain campain, and cause a lot of bruhahaha about how he is a "strong finisher", etc. etc. on the Republican side... while also causing a lot of bruhahaha about how she was "coached", a "puppet", etc. on the Democratic side. As usual, neither of these "deep analyses into the root causes" would be true--it would just be looking for deterministic causes for what is essentially a random walk.
Click to expand...

We already had the confrence speach bounce. It didn't last.
 
Pookster said:
Keep in mind, this debate (just like last weeks) is happening when the Congress is debating the "rescue/bailout" package ... again. I suspect we'll get a lot of specific questions regarding the economy and such. This could work to Palin's advantage if she shows some knowledge in this area. If the debate involves a lot of foreign policy issues, Biden will have a natural advantage just as McCain did.
Click to expand...


Looks like foreign policy may become a bigger focus ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26972132/

breaking news
updated less than 1 minute ago

WASHINGTON - The top American military commander in Afghanistan said Wednesday that he needs more troops and other aid "as quickly as possible" in a counter-insurgency battle that could get worse before it gets better.

Gen. David McKiernan said it's not just a question of troops — but more economic aid and more political aid as well.

Speaking to Pentagon reporters, the head of NATO forces in Afghanistan said there has been a significant increase in foreign fighters coming in from neighboring Pakistan this year — including Chechens, Uzbeks, Saudis and Europeans.
Click to expand...
 
Biden is in a tough spot. He won't be allowed to beat her to a bloody pulp, because she's a girl.

(not my sexism, btw...just extrapolating on the base sexism)
 
I will be utterly shocked if most people think the "other" candidate "won" the debate.

I think, in general, if Palin is reasonably coherent, the MSM will think she did well, and held her own, causing McCain to regain the poll lead.
 
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Watch Sarah Palin debate:



With these low expectations, Sarah Palin is set up for a game-changing debate.
 
boloboffin said:
Watch Sarah Palin debate:



With these low expectations, Sarah Palin is set up for a game-changing debate.
Click to expand...

She seems to debate somewhat well there, but who knows how she will do Thursday?

Now, I know this sounds crazy, but maybe they threw her to the wolves the past few weeks, to lull people into thinking she is a pushover?

I mean, take some hits, lower expectations, and then torpedo Biden in a cold, calculated move to win the Presidency.

Nah, McCain's campaign isn't that strategically minded.

:rolleyes:
 
Well, we see another issue here--the "boy who cried wolf" problem. I don't know Sarah Palin and--for all I know--those who claim she's a stupid liar who's dumb as a bag of rocks are 100% correct. But since the Democrats called every single Republican politician in the last 30 years a stupid liar who's dumb as a bag of rocks, this accusation no longer means anything; it's just white noise, at this point. (Of course Republicans have their own biases: they claim every Democratic politician in the last 30 years can't wait to raise everybody's taxes, for instance.)

The internet made the "boy who cried wolf" problem a lot worse. On the one hand, it it is an amazing tool, giving everybody instant access to more information than the president of the USA, or the head of the library of congress, could have gotten 50 years ago. But it is also easy to find biased, partisan, incomplete information--if that is what one prefers to look for.

So, yes, I'm quite sure that if I enter "Sarah Palin stupid" into google I'll get tons of hits. But I won't look at such "evidence" -- any more than I would look at "proofs" that are results of searches for "Barak Obama traitor". It isn't so much that I necessarily believe every single hit results of such a search is false, but the very method of looking for biased information a priori makes the whole excercise dubious at best.

If nothing else, it stinks of the sin of pride: the real point of such a search isn't to inform one of reality, but to make oneself feel good for being superior to those "stupid Republicans" or "commie liberals" one disagrees with.
 
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