Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

[Fast Eddie B]

That sounds a lot like "I believe in magic".

Your so called "invisible hand" is really just a large quantity of investors making decisions about whether to buy or sell. When enough of them start seeing Tesla as just another car company (which is what it is) its share price will adjust itself to be seen in those terms, which means it will go down.

Maybe. Two personal anecdotes as to why I tend not to believe statements about overpriced or undervalued stocks and predictions about their future value...

1) In 1986, I had an idea that a small computer software company might do well going forward. I called my broker in 1986 to maybe get in on their IPO. He thought at $21/share it was overpriced on the hype and to maybe wait for things to calm down. I listened to him and never ended up buying. That small software company had a ticker of MSFT - maybe you've heard of it?

2) In 1998 I bought some Apple. Steve Jobs had come back just prior. For years a lot of analysts and pundits had predicted "the death of Apple". By then I had learned to ignore anyone's pondering about overvalued or underpriced. It was in that somewhat gloomy environment that I bought in. I still have most of those shares - with multiple splits over the years my basis is 35¢ a share and my spreadsheet tells me I'm up 40,660%.

So, both study and personal experience has convinced me that no one really does, or even fundamentally can, know the "real" value of a stock as opposed to it's current value. It is what it is at any given moment based on the wisdom - or the madness - of crowds. Many prognosticators think they can know the future, but I still suggest "Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Taleb is an excellent anecdote to that way of thinking.

 

[jeremyp]

Maybe. Two personal anecdotes as to why I tend not to believe statements about overpriced or undervalued stocks and predictions about their future value...

1) In 1986, I had an idea that a small computer software company might do well going forward. I called my broker in 1986 to maybe get in on their IPO. He thought at $21/share it was overpriced on the hype and to maybe wait for things to calm down. I listened to him and never ended up buying. That small software company had a ticker of MSFT - maybe you've heard of it?

2) In 1998 I bought some Apple. Steve Jobs had come back just prior. For years a lot of analysts and pundits had predicted "the death of Apple". By then I had learned to ignore anyone's pondering about overvalued or underpriced. It was in that somewhat gloomy environment that I bought in. I still have most of those shares - with multiple splits over the years my basis is 35¢ a share and my spreadsheet tells me I'm up 40,660%.

So, both study and personal experience has convinced me that no one really does, or even fundamentally can, know the "real" value of a stock as opposed to it's current value. It is what it is at any given moment based on the wisdom - or the madness - of crowds. Many prognosticators think they can know the future, but I still suggest "Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Taleb is an excellent anecdote to that way of thinking.

Good for you, but the vast majority of stocks do not do what MSFT did and AAPL did after Jobs regained control. You were quite lucky really: you might have put your money into Digital Research or Word Perfect Corporation.

Apple and Microsoft experienced massive growth which made their stock go up, but the problem with Tesla is that the expectation of massive growth is already priced into its share price.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Good for you, but the vast majority of stocks do not do what MSFT did and AAPL did after Jobs regained control. You were quite lucky really: you might have put your money into Digital Research or Word Perfect Corporation.

Apple and Microsoft experienced massive growth which made their stock go up, but the problem with Tesla is that the expectation of massive growth is already priced into its share price.

I concede that luck may have had a lot - or everything - to do with my success with Apple. I think intuition and patience factor in as well, but who really knows.

But part of what I took away from “One Up On Wall Street” is that just a few big winners like this in a portfolio can make up for lots and lots of smaller losers. In the interest of full disclosure, I bought a bit of Rivian stock just over a year ago at around $116. Sold the shares I had at around $30 in December to book the loss to go against some capital gains I had last year. “Sell the losers and let the winners run” does seem to have some validity as a strategy.

 

[Samson]

I concede that luck may have had a lot - or everything - to do with my success with Apple. I think intuition and patience factor in as well, but who really knows.

But part of what I took away from “One Up On Wall Street” is that just a few big winners like this in a portfolio can make up for lots and lots of smaller losers. In the interest of full disclosure, I bought a bit of Rivian stock just over a year ago at around $116. Sold the shares I had at around $30 in December to book the loss to go against some capital gains I had last year. “Sell the losers and let the winners run” does seem to have some validity as a strategy.

Sell is the hardest word.
If stock is going up its gonna go higher. If it's coming down, but in profit, only the previous highs are good enough.
If showing a loss, selling is a psychological no no.
When it recovers to break even, see I was always right, it's going way higher.

I see meanwhile Tesla has a fair value of 1500 in 3 years, like candy from a baby?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business...s-stock-at-us1500/D3T2EFXPWVARREPG3LDWP6UIIE/

 

[angrysoba]

Ah! I see the haters are not mentioning that Elon Musk is the richest man in the world again...

Link

*Jordan Peterson voice*: "Up yours, woke moralists!" *begins to cry*

 

[jeremyp]

Ah! I see the haters are not mentioning that Elon Musk is the richest man in the world again...

Link

*Jordan Peterson voice*: "Up yours, woke moralists!" *begins to cry*

This is all getting a bit tiresome. Elon Musk's wealth as calculated by multiplying his share holding by the share price is completely imaginary. He did not lose $200 billion when TSLA went down last year as the article seems to claim. He never had that money in the first place. He either bought all his stock when it was much cheaper or was given it as part of his compensation package.

The same probably applies to that French guy he just overtook.

 

[angrysoba]

This is all getting a bit tiresome. Elon Musk's wealth as calculated by multiplying his share holding by the share price is completely imaginary. He did not lose $200 billion when TSLA went down last year as the article seems to claim. He never had that money in the first place. He either bought all his stock when it was much cheaper or was given it as part of his compensation package.

The same probably applies to that French guy he just overtook.

Well, sure, but I am just doing the same as you were (using my winking emoji and reference to a crying Jordan Peterson to clearly signify that I am not being completely serious), when you said "It's official."...

It's official. Elon Musk has had the biggest personal loss of wealth in history
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64236726

This is, of course, just a paper loss although, it may cause him problems with loans secured using Tesla shares as collateral.

Musk has said that the fundamentals at Tesla are still good, but even if he weren't lying, the shares are still overpriced.

 

[Brainster]

In even the medium term, Tesla's best chance for continuing existence is a buyout by one of the traditional big beasts.

Wishing it was so doesn't make it so. Tesla seems to be doing spectacularly; they made $12.5 billion last year. Revenues were up over 50%, which is amazing for a company of that size. I look at the financials of many companies and Tesla's are outstandingly strong; about the only criticism I'd offer is that they have too much cash on hand. They should deploy it or return it to the shareholders as dividends.

 

[jeremyp]

Well, sure, but I am just doing the same as you were (using my winking emoji and reference to a crying Jordan Peterson to clearly signify that I am not being completely serious), when you said "It's official."...

I must remember that sarcasm doesn't always survive the transition into print.

ETA: although perhaps my assertion that it was just a paper loss two lines below should possibly have been a clue.

ETA2: although perhaps you thought I thought your comment about haters was serious.

 

[jeremyp]

Wishing it was so doesn't make it so. Tesla seems to be doing spectacularly; they made $12.5 billion last year. Revenues were up over 50%, which is amazing for a company of that size. I look at the financials of many companies and Tesla's are outstandingly strong; about the only criticism I'd offer is that they have too much cash on hand. They should deploy it or return it to the shareholders as dividends.

Those numbers are the past. You need to look at other things to make an educated guess at the future.

Other companies are now making electric cars. Almost all of them seem to be better than Tesla at developing new models and getting them into production. None of them have CEOs who are more interested on proving to the world that they are massive ********* than running a good car company.

Tesla's future is grim unless they get somebody in who knows howe to build cars.

 

[Ryokan]

Those numbers are the past. You need to look at other things to make an educated guess at the future.

Other companies are now making electric cars. Almost all of them seem to be better than Tesla at developing new models and getting them into production. None of them have CEOs who are more interested on proving to the world that they are massive ********* than running a good car company.

Tesla's future is grim unless they get somebody in who knows howe to build cars.

Norway started adopting electric cars early, and last year over 80% of new cars sold were electric.

Many car manufacturers have stopped selling fossil fuel cars in Norway. They simply don't sell much.

So we have a big variety of electric cars to choose from.

And still Tesla has a 25% market share. Of all new cars sold.

Tesla is also the favoured brand of electric car to be used as taxi, a profession that has high demands of their cars.

I own two taxis. I considered many different cars, but eventually landed on Tesla. It simply made the most sense, especially economically (Other brands still demand regular service intervals, despite electric cars not needing them like fossil fuel cars do.).

Tesla also scores the highest when different Norwegian consumer groups run tests on range loss in cold weather and things like that.

So who are all of these companies who are making electric cars that seem to be better than Tesla?

Yes, Musk is insane, but that doesn't seem to have impacted Tesla's cars.

 

[Ryokan]

Rumours have it that Musk will announce a cheap Tesla, nicknamed Tesla Model 2 in social media, in March.

It will be a small crossover SUV with price around $25k.

It's rumoured it will be in production already this year, which in Tesla speak probably means 2024 or 2025.

I suspect Tesla stock will rise if this rumour holds true.

 

[wareyin]

Rumours have it that Musk will announce a cheap Tesla, nicknamed Tesla Model 2 in social media, in March.

It will be a small crossover SUV with price around $25k.

It's rumoured it will be in production already this year, which in Tesla speak probably means 2024 or 2025.

I suspect Tesla stock will rise if this rumour holds true.

Anyone putting a lot of stock into rumors about new Tesla models going into production should pay a lot of attention to how many Cybertrucks are on the road right now.

Are these even rumors from Tesla insiders, or is this just what some guy in the pub is saying?

 

[trustbutverify]

Yes, Musk is insane, but that doesn't seem to have impacted Tesla's cars.

I don't think he's insane, just a miserable person.

 

[novaphile]

I don't think he's insane, just a miserable person.

'miserable person'

I must remember that, the next time I need to explain that someone is an utter dick.

 

[Darat]

Anyone putting a lot of stock into rumors about new Tesla models going into production should pay a lot of attention to how many Cybertrucks are on the road right now.

Are these even rumors from Tesla insiders, or is this just what some guy in the pub is saying?

And how many solar roof tiles, or how many robots or…..

 

[GlennB]

And how many solar roof tiles, or how many robots or…..

... BFRs on Mars

 

[Brainster]

Those numbers are the past. You need to look at other things to make an educated guess at the future.

Other companies are now making electric cars. Almost all of them seem to be better than Tesla at developing new models and getting them into production. None of them have CEOs who are more interested on proving to the world that they are massive ********* than running a good car company.

Tesla's future is grim unless they get somebody in who knows howe to build cars.

Lots of assertions in there; no links, no backup, no analysis. You hate Musk and therefore his company is doomed. I'm actually not a big fan, but I can read financial statements. This is a very healthy company still in its rapid growth phase. The P/E is currently down to around 50. This is anecdotal, but I see the cars everywhere; maybe it's just that they are so distinctive looking with that Porsche 911 hood (and almost white).

 

[angrysoba]

I must remember that sarcasm doesn't always survive the transition into print.

ETA: although perhaps my assertion that it was just a paper loss two lines below should possibly have been a clue.
ETA2: although perhaps you thought I thought your comment about haters was serious.

Yeah, I was being tongue-in-cheek about the haters part. Or at least partly tongue-in-cheek.

That said, I do notice that there was quite a bit of excitement about Tesla's share price dropping, and Musk losing money, on paper, but no mention in the same thread when Tesla went back up.

I really have very little understanding of these things, but I assumed from something you said before that the drop in share price could be temporary....

Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla. One of Elon Musk's biggest fanboys, Jordan Peterson, is currently decrying Canada's decision to move to sales of zero-emission vehicles who is also now leaning into his catch phrase of "up yours, woke moralists!"

Link

There’s a new US government subsidy coming in in January. Nobody in America wants to buy a Tesla this month, they want them next month.

Interesting. So this fall in price could be temporary….?

I'm going to partially walk back what I said. The new tax credit is a major factor, but there are several others.

https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/why-used-tesla-ev-prices-dropping/

I think Tesla is in trouble regardless of the tax credit situation. It's got no new models. The second hand market is saturated. Other manufacturers are beginning to erode its market position. The CEO is AWOL (although that might be a positive).

...could it be that that turned out to be the case?

The other thing, possibly, and I am just spitballing here, didn't Tesla reduce their prices?

I think some people were saying that the second-hand EV market was saturated, but reducing the price presumably, or at least I would assume, would tempt more people to buy new cars who might have bought second-hand.

I think there was some grumbling about how Elon Musk has suddenly left current owners of vehicles in possession of a less valuable car. And sure, maybe some would lose out, but clearly not Tesla, by the looks of things.

Anyway, for the record, I think Elon Musk is a complete douchebag. I used to have more respect for him as a person until I found out how much he panders to the craziest people to be popular among edgelords and other wankers, but I think it is best to separate that from the fact that Tesla does seem to be doing okay right now.

 

[a_unique_person]

In even the medium term, Tesla's best chance for continuing existence is a buyout by one of the traditional big beasts.

GM and Ford are both hollow shells. Ditto the rest of the beasts.