Cont: Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla II

How often will the gas tanks need to be inspected?
They won't need to be inspected at all because this is not going to happen.

The demo was fake. Even Musk says the cars won't be delivered until 2028, which, in Elon time means not in the next decade at least.

I honestly cannot understand how Roger thought it was any kind of flex to bring it up.
 




i think it’s set up to dump on the account holders. the shares are dumped into their accounts without any way to refuse and locked up for years while the company is free to do what they want with the remaining shares
The point I was making is that, if somebody gives you shares for free, you are not "holding the bag" because, even if they go down to zero, you have lost no money.

The issue that your links address is a different one and appears to be that donating shares to voters or the children of voters is pretty much a naked bribe. It's just as serious, but it is not the same one.
 
The point I was making is that, if somebody gives you shares for free, you are not "holding the bag" because, even if they go down to zero, you have lost no money.

The issue that your links address is a different one and appears to be that donating shares to voters or the children of voters is pretty much a naked bribe. It's just as serious, but it is not the same one.

true, the trump account holders would be left with the worthless shares at no direct cost to them
 
... Especially as you can literally 'drive around Australia' in an EV towing a caravan on the 'Big Lap'- anything that has a range of more than 250km (and many of these commercial light and medium trucks are 300-500km or more), an EV motorhome would make a LOT more sense...

RV-wise, it gets complicated.

This would work for those who pop off to a local scenic spot for the weekend, or a caravan park for longer. Park and plug in.

For your "grey nomads" however, it's only workable for the well-heeled retiree.

You would need to spend most nights at an RV park and the affordable version of those is rapidly going the way of the Dodo.

For us "off grid" full timers, on a budget... not doable.

Let's say you cram all the solar you can on the roof, likely 1.5kW but we'll call it 2.
That will net you around 7-10 kWh a day into your battery bank.

A large EV SUV today has a ~300 kWh pack, an RV would likely have one a tad larger. Solar alone ain't gonna cut it.

No boondocking EV RV for me, sad to say. 🙁

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ETA: Not sure if the towed trailer is better or worse... small tow vehicle but only room for ~600-800 watts of panel on the trailer. 🤔

Eta2... And heating and cooling get worse for off-grid all-electric.
You can do some cooling today with efficient mini-splits (or just open the windows. 😛 ) but you need to be in a sunny spot and that means needing the AC. 😡

Electric heating at night however... forget about it.
You would have to go propane (a decent power suck for the blower fans) or a fitted/exhausted diesel heater (those are pretty nice I hear).

You're not going to be running a nice 1500 watt resistive wire room heater. That's your whole day's collection gone in half an evening. 🤣

I realize I'm being "motorhome" biased, not a trailer guy myself. If I could just go where it a pretty view there's no public charging stations
That said, it can be damn hard getting this medium sized one of mine into half the filling stations... I shudder to think what the reaction would be if one was sitting across eight charging stations for an hour or so... almost every day. 😳
 
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RV-wise, it gets complicated.

This would work for those who pop off to a local scenic spot for the weekend, or a caravan park for longer. Park and plug in.

For your "grey nomads" however, it's only workable for the well-heeled retiree.

You would need to spend most nights at an RV park and the affordable version of those is rapidly going the way of the Dodo.

For us "off grid" full timers, on a budget... not doable.

Let's say you cram all the solar you can on the roof, likely 1.5kW but we'll call it 2.
That will net you around 7-10 kWh a day into your battery bank.

A large EV SUV today has a ~300 kWh pack, an RV would likely have one a tad larger. Solar alone ain't gonna cut it.

No boondocking EV RV for me, sad to say. 🙁
Actually, a motorhome the size of something like that can easily carry 4-5kw worth of solar- even more with a 'solar awning' like seen on some caravans...
This one had 5kw of solar on its roof- and that was half a decade ago(more actually, it was definitely pre covid)- here a 5kw array (especially using the newer high efficiency panels) would easily net you 30 kWh plus here a day just parked up
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Plus being a stock 'EV truck chassis' they can 'refuel' at any EV fast charger (or from their solar via a Zappi or similar solar capable EV charger onboard...)

With much of Australia EV capable now (you would be amazed at just how many there are now- people have done 'the Big Lap' in EVs- towing caravans) an EV motorhome certainly isn't a big stretch- it would cost about the same as a new V8 diesel Landcruiser with big 'offroad' 2 axle caravan anyway- and doesn't need a quarter of a grand fillup every 500km!!!!!

Something like the JAC would be the right size for a LR motorhome, instead of the pantech (hell, turn the pantech into a motorhome lol)- do the usual 'motorhome conversion' ie cut the back of the cab out so you can 'walkthrough' into the camper and bingo...
(and you could get a LOT more solar up there too lol- 7-10kw wouldn't be out of the question- a 10kw array would easily do 50-60kWh a day!!!- thats a over a half 'tank' a day just sitting there camping...)
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Compare that to the V8 diesel Landcruiser Saharas that seem to be the grey nomads choice...
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The largest of the JACs can be up to 9 tonnes fully loaded, and still have a 300km range- running with an 'empty box of air' on its back ie the camper, I suspect it could do a LOT further than that- and that's enough range anyway to do a 'Big Lap' trip just on the fast chargers that already exist here (and there's more going in every day)- its also about the price of the top of the line Tesla Y and a 'mid sized' caravan (which certainly wouldn't be as stable to drive)
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Note the distance scale bottom right...
from https://www.plugshare.com/map/australia

And you wouldn't be losing any of the 'Tesla frills' driving the JAC- its got all the usual features of any EV here...
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Sure they would be expensive- but ANY motorhome that size is going to be expensive....
Hell even the 'big van' versions cost considerably more...
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The big VW LWB is the same size as the Mercedes LWB Sprinter....

Seems that EV touring (or boondocking/free camping as its called here) is actually quite a bit CHEAPER than the current grey nomads 'choice of weapon' aka Landcruiser with 25-30ft van on the back...
 
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There heaps of people doing the 'Big Lap' in SUVs hauling caravans- some have even posted their trips up online lol
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The 'Big Lap' is driving right around Australia- about the same as driving around the US 'lower 48'...
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(dunno where these 300kWh EVs you are talking about are- but thats stupid large battery capacity- the Atto 3 they mentioned is one of the most popular SUVs here (same size as a Tesla Model Y) been on the market since 2022, with up to 1.5 tonne towing capacity in the 2026 Atto 3 EVO and a 75kWh battery capacity with a 500km range (less with a caravan on obviously) on the LR version...
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Your link tells me that there are 36 models on sale in New Zealand that are cheaper than the cheapest Tesla.

Well done.
And 180 that are more expensive.

Tesla never set out to be the cheapest EV ever, and why should it? But the Model 3 is competitively priced compared to other big names like Toyota, Kia, Mazda, MG, Suzuki, Mini, Subaru, Skoda, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Ford and Mercedes-Benz. Why are Toyota, Ford, Kia and Mazda not making cheaper EVs?

The only 'cheap' EVs available here are small Chinese models that are partly funded by the Chinese government. The Honda Super-ONE is a 'good' price at NZ$42,900, but it's a tiny Kei car designed for city driving.

I didn't include the Nissan Leaf in my list because Nissan is not currently selling any EVs in New Zealand. The original Leaf debuted in 2011 at an eye-watering NZ$69,700 - for a car with only 115 km WLTP range. 3 years later they dropped it to $39,990, then in 2019 increased the price again to $59,990. That's when I bought a used 2011 leaf for $9,990 (wanted one in 2011 but I wasn't going to blow my life savings on it). The only notable improvement Nissan made over that 8 year period was increasing the battery capacity from 24kWh to 40kWh, a good thing for sure but still only getting 270 km (168 miles) range.

In 2025 the Nissan Leaf sold for NZ$62,990 with just 270 Km range. The Tesla Model 3 has 572 km range and costs $54,900, $8,090 cheaper for more than double the range.
 
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They won't need to be inspected at all because this is not going to happen.

The demo was fake. Even Musk says the cars won't be delivered until 2028, which, in Elon time means not in the next decade at least.

I honestly cannot understand how Roger thought it was any kind of flex to bring it up.
Most Tesla models were produced soon after being debuted. The prototype Model S was shown in March 2009. At this time Telsa didn't even have a factory to make it in. Production of the Model S started in June 2012, less than 3 years later. The Model X prototype was shown on February 9, 2012. Deliveries began on September 29, 2015, 3.5 years later. The Model 3 was unveiled on March 31, 2016. Deliveries began on July 28, 2017, 1.25 years later. The Model Y was unveiled March 2019. Deliveries started in March 2020, exactly 1 year later.

The Cybertruck was significantly delayed. The concept was shown on November 21, 2019. Musk said production would start in late 2021. However this obviously wasn't factoring in Covid. Deliveries started in November 2023, 2 years behind schedule. This delay is hardly surprising considering the massive disruption the global pandemic caused, but even then we are only looking at 4 years from prototype to deliveries.

Barring another 'black swan' event, I see no reason why Tesla shouldn't be able to meet a target of 2028 for starting production of the new Roadster. The rocket version might take longer due to regulatory issues, but Elon warned us about that.

The demo wasn't fake. A concept prototype was shown, along with a demonstration of what a rocket-powered version might be capable of, but obviously not practical (the real one will have rockets and suction fans, but not for flying or driving upside down). An example of a fake demonstration would be Nikola's electric truck 'driving' on the open road by rolling an unpowered prototype downhill.
 
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Video of 2013 Tesla Model S P85 with 417,00 km (259,00 miles) on the clock being range tested in Norway:-

Still getting almost 400km (248 miles) range at a temperature of 7°C (45°F). The EPA rating is 426 km / 265 miles. That's only 7% less than rated range, not bad for a 13 year old EV!
 
Video of 2013 Tesla Model S P85 with 417,00 km (259,00 miles) on the clock being range tested in Norway:-

Still getting almost 400km (248 miles) range at a temperature of 7°C (45°F). The EPA rating is 426 km / 265 miles. That's only 7% less than rated range, not bad for a 13 year old EV!
That's the tragedy of Tesla. It could have been so much more, it created the market for a viable EV. Elon is on video saying that he only needs a few hours a week to run Tesla because he's such a genius. So he ends up wasting time and money on vanity projects instead of focussing on what made it successful.
 
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I think that just demonstrates that the company is run independently of him. He may think he's still running things, but he's not.
He can order them to waste resources to create stupid products and fire whole teams because they don't obey him unquestioningly, like the charger people.
 
Yeah, "Special Projects". Meanwhile the rest of the company chugs along without him.
Not particularly well- the biggest issue of making one person the 'face of the company' is when they go ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ crazy on drugs- and start going full on fascist supporting, it affects the company as a whole...
(which is why Tesla sales have been declining in a major way for the last three years running...)
 
Yeah, "Special Projects". Meanwhile the rest of the company chugs along without him.
The car part isn't. It's lost the competitive edge of had and failed to exploit. He's shut down car manufacturing in California. The cyber truck is a failure. The cab is failing. He's completely stopping production of two models. He hasn't renewed the existing products so they are dated compared to the competition.
 
Hey, I didn't suggest that everything's going great. But as a company it hasn't completely fallen apart yet due to lack of his leadership.
This suggests that it's a surfeit of leadership decisions by him
The car part isn't. It's lost the competitive edge of had and failed to exploit. He's shut down car manufacturing in California. The cyber truck is a failure. The cab is failing. He's completely stopping production of two models. He hasn't renewed the existing products so they are dated compared to the competition.
 

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