Most Republicans Are Birthers?

Dr Adequate

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OK, my headline is somewhat sensationalist, for two reasons.

First, that's counting 30% "don't knows". The breakdown of the results amongst Republicans is as follows:

Yes: 42
No: 28
Not sure: 30

Second, the question asked was not: "Is Obama eligible to be President?" but "Do you believe that Barack Obama was born in the United States of America or not?". Now it is conceivable that there are some people, especially amongst the "don't knows", who have never heard of Birthism but have a vague idea that Obama might have been born in Indonesia or something.

If this was so, however, why would the results for Republicans be so different from results amongst Democrats and Independents? And is there really anyone left who hasn't heard of Birthism? I should still like to see the poll done again with a better question, and preferably not for the Daily Kos.

Still, it appears that this is the biggest conspiracy theory today. The Truthers must be so jealous.

Some demographics:

whoarethebirthers.png


Golly, they're keen on this stuff in the South, aren't they? I wonder why.
 
You really can't put the "don't know" responses in the yes column. This poll was done pretty horribly with that sort of question wording, and usually when poll questions are THAT poorly done the "don't knows" include a lot of people who just didn't understand the question. Also, although usually you don't have to worry about sampling methodology with polling firms, any firm that let that sort of question get through would make me immediately suspicious of their other methodologies.

They should have cut off the "believe" part and the "or not" part, as including negative clauses in survey questions causes massive confusion. Best question would have been either "Where was Barack Obama born?" and code it for USA responses and all others.

Just as major parts of 9/11 conspiracy lunacy were born from Bush hatred, large parts of birtherism will be from Obama hatred. If McCain had won we'd be doing this all over again but the results would be reversed because democrats would become birthers claiming that McCain wasn't eligible since he was born in the Panama Canal zone.
 
LightinDarkness said:
You really can't put the "don't know" responses in the yes column.
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As I pointed out.

This poll was done pretty horribly with that sort of question wording, and usually when poll questions are THAT poorly done the "don't knows" include a lot of people who just didn't understand the question.
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But as I pointed out, this wouldn't explain the discrepancy between Republicans and others. "Not sure" got 3% amongst Democrats. Should my headline have been: "Republicans are ten times more likely than Democrats to be too dumb to understand a simple question"?

Just as major parts of 9/11 conspiracy lunacy were born from Bush hatred, large parts of birtherism will be from Obama hatred. If McCain had won we'd be doing this all over again but the results would be reversed because democrats would become birthers claiming that McCain wasn't eligible since he was born in the Panama Canal zone.
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An ... interesting ... conjecture, but it wouldn't explain why one CT got so much more play than the other before the election. Where were the McCain birthers then?
 
The poll shows that a minority of respondents believe that Obama was born in the USA. The rest either believe he wasn't or aren't sure. That's pretty disappointing on its own.
 
arthwollipot said:
The poll shows that a minority of respondents believe that Obama was born in the USA. The rest either believe he wasn't or aren't sure. That's pretty disappointing on its own.
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"Depressing" is the term I would have used. Strangely I have many Republican friends and not one of them believe the Birther crap. Of course they're all Californian Republicans which is kind of different.
 
Dr. A., how did you derive the figures for the pie charts? The report at the Daily Kos says what percentage in the South or among Republicans answered "no," but not what percentage of those who answered "no" are in the South or are Republicans. --EDITED YET AGAIN to remove stupid question that you answered in your first paragraph.

I have to agree with LightinDarkness that it was an amazingly dumb move to formulate the question as "Do you believe . . . or not?" When I first read of the survey, I assumed that the answer option "not sure" meant "I am not sure whether (or whether I believe that) Obama was born in the US," but I see now that it could also be chosen by those who are unsure how the options "yes" and "no" are supposed to relate to a question that is not, in all strictness, of such a form as to admit of a yes or a no answer.

On second thought, I doubt that many people are sensitive enough to grammar to hesitate in construing "yes" to mean "Yes, I believe that Obama was born in the US" and "no" to mean "No, I do not believe that Obama was born in the US."
 
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arthwollipot said:
The poll shows that a minority of respondents believe that Obama was born in the USA. The rest either believe he wasn't or aren't sure. That's pretty disappointing on its own.
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No. You are looking only at the results for Republicans. The responses overall were 77% "yes," 11% "no," 12% "not sure." Information here.
 
Dr Adequate said:
But as I pointed out, this wouldn't explain the discrepancy between Republicans and others. "Not sure" got 3% amongst Democrats. Should my headline have been: "Republicans are ten times more likely than Democrats to be too dumb to understand a simple question"?
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It think it explains quite a bit. The "don't know/no response" for survey questions is only that high if the question is confusing as this one is. If we assume 25%, if they understood the question, would say yes - it would put it at about 65/35 yes, and given the amount of partisan hatred that this CT fuels I think such a ratio would be pretty normal.

I don't think birtherism measures lunacy based on party affiliation so much as it measures how many republicans are willing to believe anything because they want to hate Obama. We reversed this several years ago with the 9/11 conspiracies when, if I remember the survey correctly, a notably larger number of Democrats believed George Bush caused it than Republicans.

Dr Adequate said:
An ... interesting ... conjecture, but it wouldn't explain why one CT got so much more play than the other before the election. Where were the McCain birthers then?
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All over the internet. But the DNC's strategy was to emphasize Republican birthers to make them look like lunatics. RNC is not as smart on the political strategy side in elections, as you can see from the election results.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=apbg9.XKhWbs&refer=us
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread337922/pg1

Now, I don't understand why the regional breakdown went like that - that is highly unusual. That might be capturing birtherism fueled by racism.
 
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Southerners are generally stupid. I know this because I've lived there and visited ther many times. It's not to say that there aren't smart people there, however, this is an area of the country where the majority of people still believe that skin color plays a factor in competency and intelligence. I don't know why, but the southern culture is one that promotes ignorance and superstition.
 
thaiboxerken said:
Southerners are generally stupid. I know this because I've lived there and visited ther many times. It's not to say that there aren't smart people there, however, this is an area of the country where the majority of people still believe that skin color plays a factor in competency and intelligence. I don't know why, but the southern culture is one that promotes ignorance and superstition.
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Holy hasty generalization batman!
 
SezMe said:
I disagree. I find RNC electoral politics to be superior to the DNC, hands down. Losing 2008 is just one single data point - it does not make your case.
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Well, you are free to disagree. As someone who has consulted for both the RNC and DNC I know how they both operate, and the RNC has failed to catch up on how to properly spin and propagandize internet rumors since 2004.
 
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LightinDarkness said:
It think it explains quite a bit. The "don't know/no response" for survey questions is only that high if the question is confusing as this one is.
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But that doesn't answer my point --- we don't see this supposed confusion amongst Democrats. Now either there are really ten times more easily confused people amongst Republicans than Democrats, or the disparity is explained by the fact that there are that many more Republicans than Democrats who really do suppose the evidence to be inconclusive.
 
Dr Adequate said:
Golly, they're keen on this stuff in the South, aren't they? I wonder why.
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Because, my friend -- and I say this as an impeccably pedigreed Southerner -- we're a bunch of ******* hicks.

I wish it boiled down to something other than that, but it doesn't.

The South, on the whole, is undereducated, superstitious, steeped in fundamentalist religion, short on critical thinking skills, and in the case of working class whites also highly suspicious of blacks, "liberals", and "elites" (that's 3 strikes for Obama), and therefore easily swayed by the likes of Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.

I have a good friend who teaches high school science in a relatively well-to-do district in the neighboring county, and every year he has to deal with students who insist the moon landing was faked.

Plain and simple, we're gullible rednecks.
 
BenBurch said:
I think this is just great news.

GO LEMMINGS! GO!

The more the GOP wraps themselves in this issue, the more certain they are of defeat in 2012 and any election thereafter.
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A failed Republican Party will inevitably result in worse government from the ruling Democrats for two reasons.

First, it will increase the incidence of group-think, scandal, and corruption among the power party. (As it always does.)

Second, with the Democrats divided as they are, and will continue to be, among liberals, moderates, and blue dogs, coalitions will have to be made with Republican senators and congressmen -- and the more extreme and fringe-based those folks are, the worse those compromises will be.

Democrats should not applaud the implosion of the GOP.
 
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