Dr Adequate said:
Cabbage said:
Paul C. Anagnostopoulos said:
People never did realise that they were wrong and said that I don't understand because I packed in Maths at the age of 16 LOL
Leaping, creeping Jeebus, let's not get into THAT again...Interesting Ian said:WOW!! That thread's still here!
http://www.internationalskeptics.co...=&threadid=36384&highlight=unlimited+infinite
Interesting Ian said:
Anyway, that involved a lot about 1 over infinity having a probability of 0, but nevertheless not being logically impossible; not to mention the distinction I made between infinite and unlimited
rppa said:
I wrote a program to test this problem, and keeping your original door limits your odds to about 1/3 and switching bumps you up to 1/2.hgc said:
Private Sub CommandButton1_Click()
Dim SwitchYes As Long
Dim SwitchNo As Long
Dim StayYes As Long
Dim StayNo As Long
Dim Doors(3) As Boolean
Dim Choice(3) As Boolean
Dim MyDoors As Integer
Dim MyDoors2 As Integer
Dim MyChoice As Integer
Dim MyChoice2 As Integer
Dim SwitchTrials As Long
Dim StayTrials As Long
Dim I As Long
Dim J As Long
Randomize
For J = 0 To 100000
For I = 0 To 3
Doors(I) = False
Choice(I) = False
Next I
MyDoors = Int(Rnd * 3) + 1 'This is the grandprize door
MyChoice = Int(Rnd * 3) + 1 'This is the original choice
Doors(MyDoors) = True
Choice(MyChoice) = True
If Int(Rnd * 2) + 1 = 1 Then '<=== Changing some of these values can affect
'switch 'whether you want the program to switch everytime,
For I = 0 To 3 'stay everytime, or decide at random whether to
Choice(I) = False 'switch door or stay.
Next I
Do
'This eliminates one of the goat doors. [color=green]Correction: This eliminates a goat door of the two remaining unchosen doors.[/color]
MyDoors2 = Int(Rnd * 3) + 1
If MyDoors2 <> MyDoors [color=green]And MyDoors2 <> MyChoice[/color] Then
Exit Do
End If
Loop
Do
'This chooses one of the remaining doors
MyChoice2 = Int(Rnd * 3) + 1
If MyChoice2 <> MyChoice And MyChoice2 <> MyDoors2 Then
Choice(MyChoice2) = True
Exit Do
End If
Loop
If Choice(MyDoors) = True Then
SwitchYes = SwitchYes + 1
Else
SwitchNo = SwitchNo + 1
End If
SwitchTrials = SwitchTrials + 1
Else
'stay
If Choice(MyDoors) = True Then
StayYes = StayYes + 1
Else
StayNo = StayNo + 1
End If
StayTrials = StayTrials + 1
End If
Next J
MsgBox "Switch Trials (" & SwitchTrials & "):" & vbNewLine & _
"Switch Doors And Won Car: " & SwitchYes & " / " & Left(SwitchYes / (SwitchTrials + 1), 6) & vbNewLine & _
"Switch Doors And Won Goat: " & SwitchNo & " / " & Left(SwitchNo / (SwitchTrials + 1), 6) & vbNewLine & _
vbNewLine & _
"Stay Trials (" & StayTrials & "):" & vbNewLine & _
"Stayed And Won Car: " & StayYes & " / " & Left(StayYes / (StayTrials + 1), 6) & vbNewLine & _
"Stayed And Won Goat: " & StayNo & " / " & Left(StayNo / (StayTrials + 1), 6)
End Sub
Paul C. Anagnostopoulos said:Had a known that the fate of the rational world depended upon rigorously specifying the Monty Hall problem in Parade magazine, I would have been much less cavalier about it, and certainly would have used more bold words.
You people are over the top.
I love you guys.
~~ Paul
(Looks around...garys_2k said:
Yeah, there are several. I was thinking of the leafy garden plant, though. the one with "a short stem and a dense globular head of usually green leaves that is used as a vegetable" (or so says Merriam-Webster).
) I don't see anyone around here fitting that description. My leaves are usually red.
And if he reveals that the door that you originally chose has a car behind it, you'd be a fool to switch.Interesting Ian said:
Indeed, I was just yanking various chains. Also, it was an opportunity to use the bowling smilie, for reasons that now escape me.
You can remember that he had two white Trans Ams, but not his name? You sound like me! [I wonder if the plural should be Transes Am?]
Ah, now this is interesting. I had not picked up on this becoming some sort of skeptical right of passage. Certainly, in that context, blithely assuming the conditions of the problem without explicit clarification would be a mistake.
I will retract my statement that all this concern over the precise wording of the Monty Hall problem is pedantic. All future statements of the problem should be worded precisely. However, I stick with my claim that that will not help most people see the light, because it is not any possible ambiguity that is the barrier to understanding.
Interesting Ian said:Yeah, that huge argument I had with everyone else apart from about 3 others who agreed with me (dodge69, vorticity, Cecil). Something about me saying a finite sequence of random numbers will eventually come across any string of numbers you care to specify. That it is guaranteed to occur in a finite string.
Almost everyone said I was stupid and that only an infinite string of numbers could guarantee it
Anyway, that involved a lot about 1 over infinity having a probability of 0, but nevertheless not being logically impossible; not to mention the distinction I made between infinite and unlimited
TeaBag420 said:
If you want a car, you maximize your chances of getting a car. If you prefer a goat (not that there's anything wrong with that) think about how many goats you could fu...uh, get in exchange for a car. Either way, you win. That's "to your advantage" Johnny Shortbus.rppa said:
TeaBag420 said:
