MLM Math

[maximara]

Once again. Spot on. MLM is an outdated business model. It currently serves as a vehicle for predators to prey on the gullible and financially needy.

Their product is opportunity and hope. Hope is a powerful commodity. It is why people often knowingly go to Las Vegas to gamble They know the odds are against them but they are willing to rick their dollars in the hopes of striking it rich. While MLM is not gambling, the strike it rich concept is similar.

The difference is that people go to Vegas knowing the odds. MLMer's tend to stretch the truth and woo people into signing up.

Icerat/IBOFIghtback/Insider/Insider201283 or whatever nickname he now has even tried to debate, on another forum, that his overpriced Amway toothpaste was actually a better value than the cheaper Colgate or Aim, because the hole on the tube was smaller. This guy will do anything to try and make amway and MLM look good, even if he must deceive or lie to do it.

If you want to really see how Icerat/IBOFIghtback/Insider/Insider201283 plays his game and how deep the rabbit hole of deception goes read through the Talk:Multi-level marketing archive beginning with Sources for the article.

The rambling on FitzPatrick & Reynolds, False Profits, Quoting an RS source citing non-RS sources is priceless and if are really ready for some off the wall insanity Times identified as "unreliable" is a real hoot.

 

[icerat]

What we need is a MLM company to sell PMMs. Both seem to rely on the same basic notion.

Hmm, let me see. MLM is based on ... buy stuff at one price, sell it at another, make a profit.

PMMs are based on ... violations of laws of physics.

Yeah. Same basic notion.

 

[icerat]

If you want to really see how Icerat/IBOFIghtback/Insider/Insider201283 plays his game and how deep the rabbit hole of deception goes read through the Talk:Multi-level marketing archive beginning with Sources for the article.

The rambling on FitzPatrick & Reynolds, False Profits, Quoting an RS source citing non-RS sources is priceless and if are really ready for some off the wall insanity Times identified as "unreliable" is a real hoot.

So, I'm guessing you're Mr Grubb then?

There is nothing in that discussion I don't stand behind and plenty that shows the kind of obsessive reality-denying behaviour of certain anti-mlm zealots.

Still waiting for your "peer-reviewed material".

The irony is that since, unlike you, I actually have collated and reviewed the peer-reviewed literature, I'd actually be able to do it.

 

[maximara]

So, I'm guessing you're Mr Grubb then?

There is nothing in that discussion I don't stand behind and plenty that shows the kind of obsessive reality-denying behaviour of certain anti-mlm zealots.

And the kind of pro MLM zealotry that involves deception, misdirection, and out right lies is so much better. Sheesh.

As for peer reviewed stuff that is all on the talk pages previously linked to:

Ahmed, Tanzila; Charles Oppenheim (2006) "Experiments to identify the causes of spam" Aslib Proceeding 58:3 Page:156 - 178

Carl, Walter J. (2002) "Organizational Legitimacy As Discursive Accomplishment in Multilevel Marketing Discourse" paper at the Organizational Communication Division of the National Communications Association conference Nov 21-24.

Carl, Walter J. (2004) "The Interactional Business of Doing Business: Managing Legitimacy and Co-constructing Entrepreneurial Identities in E-Commerce Multilevel Marketing Discourse" Western Journal of Communication, Vol. 68.

"Multi-level marketing companies (MLMs) have become an accepted and legally sanctioned form of pyramid scheme in the United States." (Coenen, Tracy L. Expert Fraud Investigation: A Step-by-Step Guide Wiley pg 168

Cruz, Joan Paola; Camilo Olaya (2008) "A System Dynamics Model for Studying the Structure of Network Marketing Organizations"(peer reviewed paper despite Icerat's claims to the contrary.)

Herbig, Paul 1997,; Rama Yelkurm "A Review of the Multilevel Marketing Phenomenon" Journal of Marketing Channels, 1540-7039, 6:1 Pgs 17–33

Higgs, Philip and Jane Smith (2007) Rethinking Our World Juta Academic

Koehn, Daryl (2001) "Ethical Issues Connected with Multi-Level Marketing Schemes" Journal of Business Ethics 29:153-160.

Micklitz, HW; B Monazzahian, C RÖßLER (1999) "Door-to-door selling—pyramid selling—multilevel marketing" Study commissioned by the CEC.

Muncy, JA (2004) "Ethical Issues in Multilevel Marketing: Is it a Legitimate Business OR Just Another Pyramid Scheme?" Marketing Education Review

Nat, PJ Vander ; WW Keep (2002) - "Marketing fraud: An approach for differentiating multilevel marketing from pyramid schemes" Journal of Public Policy & Marketing pg 139-151

Sandbek, Terry Ph.D. Brain Typing: The Pseudoscience of Cold Reading American Board of Sport Psychology

Sparks, John R. (2001) and Joseph A. Schenk "Explaining the Effects of Transformational Leadership: An Investigation of the Effects of Higher-Order Motives in Multilevel Marketing Organizations" Journal of Organizational Behavior, 22:8 pp. 849-869

Schmidt, Andreas U. (2006)"Multi-level markets and incentives for information goods" Information Economics and Policy Volume 18, Issue 2, June 2006, Pages 125-138

Woker, TA (2003) "If It Sounds Too Good to Be True It Probably Is: Pyramid Schemes and Other Related Frauds" Western Journal of Communication, Vol. 68.

Wong, Michelle. A. (2002) "China's Direct Marketing Ban: A Case Study of China's Response to Capital-Based Social Networks" Pacific Rim Law & Policy Journal

Work after word shows MLM to at best be questionable and a several even call them ALL out and out scams.

"Multilevel marketing (MLM) works like a pyramid scheme, but in a business setting." (Miller, Michael (2008) Is It Safe? Protecting Your Computer, Your Business, and Yourself Online Que Publishing, a publishing imprint of Pearson Education "the leading education services company")

Face it Icerat you are rearranging deck chairs on the MLM Titanic.

 

[Joecool]

Some people suspect that Icerat/Insider/IBOFightback/Insider201283/David is paid for his zealotry.

 

[icerat]

Ahmed, Tanzila; Charles Oppenheim (2006) "Experiments to identify the causes of spam" Aslib Proceeding 58:3 Page:156 - 178

Conference paper. Doesn't support your claim

Carl, Walter J. (2002) "Organizational Legitimacy As Discursive Accomplishment in Multilevel Marketing Discourse" paper at the Organizational Communication Division of the National Communications Association conference Nov 21-24.

Did you actually get access to and read this?. It was a conference presentation, thus not peer-reviewed. There is a differently titled peer-reviewed paper based on the presentation. I have the paper, it doesn't support your claim at all, it's a pretty dry discourse analysis.

Carl, Walter J. (2004) "The Interactional Business of Doing Business: Managing Legitimacy and Co-constructing Entrepreneurial Identities in E-Commerce Multilevel Marketing Discourse" Western Journal of Communication, Vol. 68.

Peer-reviewed. Another dry discourse analysis. In a 21 page paper he mentions some criticism in one paragraph in the introduction. Overall I'd say it's positive, not negative.

"Multi-level marketing companies (MLMs) have become an accepted and legally sanctioned form of pyramid scheme in the United States." (Coenen, Tracy L. Expert Fraud Investigation: A Step-by-Step Guide Wiley pg 168

Not a peer-reviewed academic article. Coenen is a professional anti-MLM zealot. The sentence makes no sense since, by definition, pyramid schemes are illegal, as numerous others of your citations make clear.

Cruz, Joan Paola; Camilo Olaya (2008) "A System Dynamics Model for Studying the Structure of Network Marketing Organizations"(peer reviewed paper despite Icerat's claims to the contrary.)

Conference paper. Not peer-reviewed, not particularly negative. Your only interest is because he cites rabid mlm-critic Jon Taylor, who despite a supposed Phd doesn't even understand basic statistics.

Herbig, Paul 1997,; Rama Yelkurm "A Review of the Multilevel Marketing Phenomenon" Journal of Marketing Channels, 1540-7039, 6:1 Pgs 17–33

I don't have this paper. I'd appreciate a copy

Higgs, Philip and Jane Smith (2007) Rethinking Our World Juta Academic

A philosophy book?
Ahh ... they quote a webpage to use as a seed for discussion. The work itself doesn't say anything about MLM.

Did you even read it?

Koehn, Daryl (2001) "Ethical Issues Connected with Multi-Level Marketing Schemes" Journal of Business Ethics 29:153-160.

Peer-reviewed. Overall negative, but directly contradicts your non-peer-reviewed quote from Coenen above by stating (correctly) that pyramid schemes are illegal.

Micklitz, HW; B Monazzahian, C RÖßLER (1999) "Door-to-door selling—pyramid selling—multilevel marketing" Study commissioned by the CEC.

Not peer-reviewed and was rejected as a basis for new EU laws.

Muncy, JA (2004) "Ethical Issues in Multilevel Marketing: Is it a Legitimate Business OR Just Another Pyramid Scheme?" Marketing Education Review

Peer reviewed. The article is positive towards legitimate MLM and contradicts your Coenen quote.

Nat, PJ Vander ; WW Keep (2002) - "Marketing fraud: An approach for differentiating multilevel marketing from pyramid schemes" Journal of Public Policy & Marketing pg 139-151

Peer reviewed. The article is positive towards legitimate MLM and contradicts your Coenen quote.

Sandbek, Terry Ph.D. Brain Typing: The Pseudoscience of Cold Reading American Board of Sport Psychology

Not peer-reviewed and very poor quality, as is obvious to anyone except you. All it does is cites an anti-mlm website in order to attack another person.

Sparks, John R. (2001) and Joseph A. Schenk "Explaining the Effects of Transformational Leadership: An Investigation of the Effects of Higher-Order Motives in Multilevel Marketing Organizations" Journal of Organizational Behavior, 22:8 pp. 849-869

Peer-reviewed. Positive to MLM, and directly contradicts your non-peer-reviewed quote from Coenen above by stating (correctly) that pyramid schemes are illegal.

Schmidt, Andreas U. (2006)"Multi-level markets and incentives for information goods" Information Economics and Policy Volume 18, Issue 2, June 2006, Pages 125-138

Peer-reviewed. Have you even read any of these articles? This one is actually proposing using MLM for virtual goods. It's positive to the concept. And it directly contradicts your Coenen quote.

Woker, TA (2003) "If It Sounds Too Good to Be True It Probably Is: Pyramid Schemes and Other Related Frauds" Western Journal of Communication, Vol. 68.

I don't have this. I'd appreciate a copy.

Wong, Michelle. A. (2002) "China's Direct Marketing Ban: A Case Study of China's Response to Capital-Based Social Networks" Pacific Rim Law & Policy Journal

Peer reviewed and positive to legitimate MLM. Indeed, it declares -

The 1998 direct sales ban represents the failure of the Chinese to recognize the need for political and institutional development, which must be concurrent with market reform​

Of course, China is today Amway's biggest market, they've received over 5800 awards there including numerous "most trusted brand" awards.

Work after word shows MLM to at best be questionable and a several even call them ALL out and out scams.

Next time, try reading them, most of the peer-reviewed ones are positive towards MLM as a model.

"Multilevel marketing (MLM) works like a pyramid scheme, but in a business setting." (Miller, Michael (2008) Is It Safe? Protecting Your Computer, Your Business, and Yourself Online Que Publishing, a publishing imprint of Pearson Education "the leading education services company")

Not a peer-reviewed academic article, haven't got it. Snippets on Google books are directly contradicted by the actual peer-reviewed articles you cited.

Face it Icerat you are rearranging deck chairs on the MLM Titanic.

Here's a peer-reviewed quote for you -

Albaum, Gerald; Peterson, Robert A. (2011) Multilevel (network) marketing: An objective view. The Marketing Review, 2011, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 347-361

A few years ago Rotfeld (2008, p. 125) wrote that -

People who dislike motorcycles, guns, or bungee jumping attack the marketing of the products as manipulation of people who ride motorcycles, go hunting, or like to jump off bridges. Illogical extremism does not acquire validity because it is arguing in the consumers’ interests.​

This conclusion would seem to apply to the critics of multilevel marketing, whose wide-ranging assertions are merely opinions rather than scientifically based conclusions.

 

[marplots]

Icerat,
Could you give me a few traits I can easily spot if I am asked to participate in a distributed marketing business (is that the right general term?). I'd like to know how I can tell, as a prospect, whether or not an offer is a scam or not.

Preferably, it would be some set of red flags I could spot during a presentation, or, failing that, with minimal research. I am no expert and do not have much business savvy.

I do not wish to fall prey to anecdotes and false promises.

 

[icerat]

Icerat,
Could you give me a few traits I can easily spot if I am asked to participate in a distributed marketing business (is that the right general term?). I'd like to know how I can tell, as a prospect, whether or not an offer is a scam or not.

Preferably, it would be some set of red flags I could spot during a presentation, or, failing that, with minimal research. I am no expert and do not have much business savvy.

I do not wish to fall prey to anecdotes and false promises.

"distributed marketing" is a new term to me, but I'm assuming is the same model.

The first simple question is this, and it applies to any business, no matter what the compensation model -

1. Is there a legitimate market for this product (or products) at the price offered?

Simplest place to start answering that is with a market research of one - would you buy it if there was no "opportunity" attached.

If the answers no, then it doesn't necessarily mean other people wouldn't (that would require further research) but it does mean you probably don't need to bother researching it any further for your own purposes.

After that, things get complicated.

 

[marplots]

"distributed marketing" is a new term to me, but I'm assuming is the same model.

The first simple question is this, and it applies to any business, no matter what the compensation model -

1. Is there a legitimate market for this product (or products) at the price offered?

Simplest place to start answering that is with a market research of one - would you buy it if there was no "opportunity" attached.

If the answers no, then it doesn't necessarily mean other people wouldn't (that would require further research) but it does mean you probably don't need to bother researching it any further for your own purposes.

After that, things get complicated.

Thank you.

As far as the complications go, do you think someone with little to no expertise could do the proper due diligence? I have gotten involved in things in the past where I thought I knew more than I did and wouldn't want to make that mistake. I wouldn't want to become the victim of misplaced trust and my own dreams of success.

I guess I'm asking how to be a proper skeptic when it comes to distributed marketing without having to be an expert (unless expertise is required).

 

[icerat]

Thank you.

As far as the complications go, do you think someone with little to no expertise could do the proper due diligence? I have gotten involved in things in the past where I thought I knew more than I did and wouldn't want to make that mistake. I wouldn't want to become the victim of misplaced trust and my own dreams of success.

I guess I'm asking how to be a proper skeptic when it comes to distributed marketing without having to be an expert (unless expertise is required).

It can be difficult, which is why most countries have laws or other standards that require direct sales companies to offer refunds and other buyback provisions. In starting any business (even legitimate traditional ones!) there's risk, so it's a matter of trying to judge that risk and if things don't work out (from being a scam or otherwise), what are you potential losses?

With MLMs there's a few things I recommend people consider -

1. Market for the product (as above)
2. Do you get paid just for recruiting people, even if no products are sold? Run!
3. Can you get a refund on your membership fee and unsold products? Be careful to check the fine print! You'd want at least 30 days to test the waters, and at least 90% of your money back.
4. Do they require you to personally purchase products every month. If yes, be very, very wary. It may still be legitimate, but this is a dangerous practice as it corrupts market demand.
5. Are they members of national trade organisations like the DSA in the US? If not, be cautious

 

[Joecool]

It can be difficult, which is why most countries have laws or other standards that require direct sales companies to offer refunds and other buyback provisions. In starting any business (even legitimate traditional ones!) there's risk, so it's a matter of trying to judge that risk and if things don't work out (from being a scam or otherwise), what are you potential losses?

With MLMs there's a few things I recommend people consider -

1. Market for the product (as above)
2. Do you get paid just for recruiting people, even if no products are sold? Run!
3. Can you get a refund on your membership fee and unsold products? Be careful to check the fine print! You'd want at least 30 days to test the waters, and at least 90% of your money back.
4. Do they require you to personally purchase products every month. If yes, be very, very wary. It may still be legitimate, but this is a dangerous practice as it corrupts market demand.
5. Are they members of national trade organisations like the DSA in the US? If not, be cautious

While I generally agree with these point, the grand daddy of MLM, Amway, gets around these parameters by having different lines of sponsorship. such as WWDB or Network 21, who teaches their distributors bad business practices, which goes undetected by Amway (Of course Amway might be aware and just ignore it).

Market for product - skirted by teaching IBO's to buy from themselves, no selling emphasized.

No pay for recruiting, yet the emphasis of many Amway IBO's is to recruit because you can't go diamond or reach higher levels without recruiting,

You can get a refund, but Amway's policy does not apply to the support materials sold my groups such as WWDB or Network 21. This is where some IBO's report massive losses.

Amway PV scale is a defacto requirement. i.e. Why would your downline buy 100 PV if you don't?

A company being a member of the DSA has no correlation with their IBO's (agents) making profits.

 

[catsmate]

Some people suspect that Icerat/Insider/IBOFightback/Insider201283/David is paid for his zealotry.

He could just have drunk deep of the kool-aid and be afraid, for his own ego, to give up his cherished beliefs.
He seems fairly reasonable on matters not connected to MLM.

 

[icerat]

He could just have drunk deep of the kool-aid and be afraid, for his own ego, to give up his cherished beliefs.

My beliefs respond well to evidence. Got any?

He seems fairly reasonable on matters not connected to MLM.

The same for many here in reverse. I challenge any of them to stop drinking the kool-aid of anti-mlm websites and start looking at facts and peer-reviewed academic research.

When in comes to MLM, many skeptics throw out their critical thinking and starting quoting the business equivalent of Mike Adams

I refer you to the peer-reviewed, published article I cited earlier -

This conclusion would seem to apply to the critics of multilevel marketing, whose wide-ranging assertions are merely opinions rather than scientifically based conclusions

 

[Stomatopoda]

He seems fairly reasonable on matters not connected to MLM.

It's not really that unusual to have a single belief that's completely impervious to reason and skepticism, while being otherwise reasonable. Look at any thread discussing GMO food, drug use, operating systems, etc.

 

[icerat]

It's not really that unusual to have a single belief that's completely impervious to reason and skepticism, while being otherwise reasonable. Look at any thread discussing GMO food, drug use, operating systems, etc.

Yes, I'd love to know why so many otherwise rational people let their brains melt when it comes to MLM.

Any other threads and rational people start wanting evidence and scientific research. With MLM they decide website rants are far better sources than academics and other experts, and well, plain old logic.

Shermer's "Why Smart People Believe Weird Things" covers it I suppose -

Smart people believe weird things because they are skilled at defending beliefs they arrived at for non-smart reasons

Still, we can formulate a general outline of what might constitute a weird thing as we consider specific examples. For the most part, what I mean by a “weird thing” is:

• a claim unaccepted by most people in that particular field of study,
• a claim that is either logically impossible or highly unlikely, and/or
• a claim for which the evidence is largely anecdotal and uncorroborated.

* a claim unaccepted by most people in that particular field of study
- check. Multilevel marketing is accepted as legitimate throughout law, business, and marketing studies.

a claim that is either logically impossible or highly unlikely
- check. The claims of anti-MLM crowds requires belief in a huge conspiracy encompassing governments of all political hues in countries all around the globe.

a claim for which the evidence is largely anecdotal and uncorroborated
- check. The anti-MLMers rely entirely on anecdotal evidence, often self-selected and biased, to make overwhelming generalizations. The anecdotal evidence is contradicted by academic and professional research, but this is dismissed.

 

[Joecool]

My beliefs respond well to evidence. Got any?

The same for many here in reverse. I challenge any of them to stop drinking the kool-aid of anti-mlm websites and start looking at facts

Fact is that the vast majority of people who sign up for MLM make money or lose money. Icerat/IBOFightback admits that from the start, many people do nothing. It's like he's saying MLM works if you don't count the drop outs. Using that logic, all high schools and colleges have a near 100% graduation rate

The fact is that icerat (or the MLM companies) have no way of knowing who did nothing or worked hard. As far as statistics go, someone who put in 100 hours trying to sell overpriced MLM products and recruiting people might still have zero volume, the same as someone who did nothing.

It's also a fact that some MLM's a operating currently legal, but soon to be shut down as a pyramid. i.e Equinox, or more recently FHTM.

 

[maximara]

* a claim unaccepted by most people in that particular field of study
- check. Multilevel marketing is accepted as legitimate throughout law, business, and marketing studies.

Untrue.

Higgs, Philip and Jane Smith (2007) Rethinking Our World by Juta Academic (South Africa’s leading provider of trusted legal and regulatory information and the largest local publisher of quality student textbooks in the fields of Commerce, Accounting, Communications, Social Science, Health, Education and the Law.) accepts MLM Watch website as well as Fitzpatrick as reliable references and say that ALL MLMs are deceptive scams with odds worse then with pyramid schemes. So even though it is a Philosophy book its comments regarding law were peer-reviewed by a publisher of legal and regulatory information.


Never mind nobody can even agree on when MLMs started (indicating that there is no really hard and fast definition of the thing making regulation hard at the best of times): Business students focus on ethics that claims the 1920s, while Western Journal of Communication presents 1940s as the start, but Articles in Journal of Small Business Management say lat 1960s, and finally an article in International Journal of Service Industry Management points to the 1970s. It a game of pick that decade. If it is clear what MLMs are then why in the name of sanity is the starting point 50 year range?

a claim that is either logically impossible or highly unlikely
- check. The claims of anti-MLM crowds requires belief in a huge conspiracy encompassing governments of all political hues in countries all around the globe.

No they don't. Furthermore in 1998 China outlawed all direct selling (which includes MLMs) only legalizing direct selling (but NOT MLMs) in 2005.

"China's government used consulting firms to investigate the distinctions between MLM and obvious pyramid schemes such as "gifting clubs." In the end, it determined that MLM is only a disguised pyramid scheme." (September 2009)

In 2010 MLMs were illegal in Singapore (The Multi-level Marketing and Pyramid Selling (Prohibition) Act).

And even those areas where MLMs are legal the vast majority of them are in reality disguised ILLEGAL pyramid schemes.


"MLM program is a highly leveraged product-based pyramid scheme in concept, structure, and effects. Nowadays, MLM industry is so well-entrenched in our society that effective laws for protecting consumers may be next to impossible without massive public support and clamor for change - which is not likely to happen, In fact, opposite is more likely - participants in all types of pyramid schemes will fight to defend a scheme until they have had their opportunity to "cash out"." (Sam-Hyun Chun, (2008) 방문ㆍ다단계판매의 판단기준에 관한 비교법적 고찰 "A Comparative Legal Review on Definition of Door-To-Door Sales and multilevel marketing" English abstract)

The claim of a huge conspiracy could be used to explain the failure of Prohibition in the 1920s or the Drug War today and it just as silly. Apathy towards what laws are on the books is all that is needed-no huge conspiracy needed.

a claim for which the evidence is largely anecdotal and uncorroborated
- check. The anti-MLMers rely entirely on anecdotal evidence, often self-selected and biased, to make overwhelming generalizations. The anecdotal evidence is contradicted by academic and professional research, but this is dismissed.

No it isn't.

"It is considered that 99% of NMOs’ distributors lose profits because the costs associated with building the business exceed the returns." (Cruz, Joan Paola; Camilo Olaya (2008) "A System Dynamics Model for Studying the Structure of Network Marketing Organizations")

"Day after day, however, many Americans and others around the world fall prey to a similar type of deception—supposed “business opportunities” in which 99.9 percent of investors lose money." (Pareja, Sergio, (2008) "Sales Gone Wild: Will the FTC's Business Opportunity Rule Put an End to Pyramid Marketing Schemes?" McGeorge Law Review, Vol. 39, No. 83.)

 

[maximara]

Hmm, let me see. MLM is based on ... buy stuff at one price, sell it at another, make a profit.

PMMs are based on ... violations of laws of physics.

Yeah. Same basic notion.

Because to make money in MLM you have to endless recruit to replace those that drop out or to fill up your down line. A regular business has a 25% failure rate while MLMs have a 99%+ failure rate.

BTW Belgium ruled that Herbalife (around since 1980) is a Pyramid Scheme.

 

[AdMan]

Personally, I'd steer well clear of any MLM business proposition. Pyramid scheme or not, as an individual just joining, making any money off a business like that is a very long shot.

 

[icerat]

Because to make money in MLM you have to endless recruit to replace those that drop out or to fill up your down line. A regular business has a 25% failure rate while MLMs have a 99%+ failure rate.

Not true.

BTW Belgium ruled that Herbalife (around since 1980) is a Pyramid Scheme.

I'm fairly confident that will be overturned on appeal, but the judge's reasoning was that it was a pyramid because it didn't operate like Amway, which is self-evidently an MLM.

Personally, I'd steer well clear of any MLM business proposition. Pyramid scheme or not, as an individual just joining, making any money off a business like that is a very long shot.

Do you believe people should steer clear of joining gyms, since for any individual just joining, getting fit is a long shot?

Do you believe people that should steer clear of dating sites, since for any individual just joining, meeting your life partner is a very long shot?

Do you believe people that African Americans should steer clear of college, since for any individual just joining, odds are you won't graduate?

Do you believe ill people should not bother getting prescription pharmaceuticals - because if they don't take them they don't work?

Seriously Adman, I don't get the logic of advice that says you shouldn't even consider something because if you don't do it you'll "fail".

How does that make sense?