MLM Math

[Joecool]

I agree.

My point is it's amusing how people never seem to question "the other side" even though there's a documented past history of Amway competitors financially and materially supporting critics. People are happy to accuse me of breaking the law and being a shill (happens all the time), but wouldn't even think to do the same of people who spend way more time on this than I do.

It's just standard ol' confirmation bias I s'pose.

Here's an exercise for an interested party - check through this thread and see how often I link to sources, so you can confirm for yourself what I'm saying, then check how often "critics" do.

Like this one?

Actually, the problem was I didn't read the link I used. I just did a quick google for FDA and homeopathy and picked the first. Oops.

 

[marplots]

I'm totally down to do some spin control for MLMs if they want to pay me. PM me. I just need a little tuition money, nothing big.

Well, now we are talking. How much do you want to make? $500, a thousand a week? What if I told you you could make money without doing any shilling yourself?!! That's right. The power of MLM shilling comes by building a downline of other, independent shills and, by accumulating small commissions from a large number of people, you can magnify your shilling into a critical mass of unstoppable opinion shaping and an amazing PR generation machine!!

 

[Mycroft]

Which means you're accusing me of criminal fraud. It is illegal in both the EU (where I live) and US (where this board is hosted) to promote a product or company and not reveal any financial connection.

That would be a pretty minor crime. At the same time, you're not a "shill" just because you happen to have strong opinions.

You said they're told stuff over and over again. Since it's not happening verbally or win writing, telepathy is all I can come up with.

I don't think asserting that Amway people talk with each other is so controversial that anyone seriously doubts that it happens. Telepathy is not required.

How is an average customer order of around $120/mth "statistical evidence of failure"?

Whoah, you pulled a fast one there. IBO still stands for Independent Business Owner, right? So an IBO order isn't a customer order, it's a buisiness order. I would consider my business to be a severe failure if it only did volume of less than $120 per month.

 

[marplots]

Whoah, you pulled a fast one there. IBO still stands for Independent Business Owner, right? So an IBO order isn't a customer order, it's a buisiness order. I would consider my business to be a severe failure if it only did volume of less than $120 per month.

Gives a new meaning to small business, doesn't it.

Wonder how Obamacare is going to work?

 

[icerat]

That would be a pretty minor crime. At the same time, you're not a "shill" just because you happen to have strong opinions.

Calling me a shill is accusing me of being paid to defend amway. Minor or not, it would be illegal to do so without disclosure.

I don't think asserting that Amway people talk with each other is so controversial that anyone seriously doubts that it happens. Telepathy is not required.

The last time I spoke to my sponsor was about 2 years ago. I'm still wondering where this "pressure" is coming from ...

Whoah, you pulled a fast one there. IBO still stands for Independent Business Owner, right? So an IBO order isn't a customer order, it's a buisiness order. I would consider my business to be a severe failure if it only did volume of less than $120 per month.

Whoah, you pulled a fast one there! You still need to well, actually own and operate a business to be a business owner don't you?

Or do you believe that if I start referring to you as a sheep farmer, that magically makes you one?

Signing a contract that gives you the right to operate an Amway business does not mean you are operating an Amway business. If ABOs took you're advice they'd all think they'd be able to claim business expenses and most would be committing tax fraud.

Signing an Amway contract doesn't automatically mean you're running a business. I can't believe people still try to push that piece of BS.

All that aside, I didn't even say the average Amway business did $120/mth volume.

 

[Joecool]

Icerat is definitely a shill, paid or not. Back to evidence. A court suit in the UK revealed some interesting numbers:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-level_marketing

The Times: "The Government investigation claims to have revealed that just 10% of Amway's agents in Britain make any profit, with less than one in ten selling a single item of the group's products."[27]
Scheibeler, a high level "Emerald" Amway member: "UK Justice Norris found in 2008 that out of an IBO [Independent Business Owners] population of 33,000, 'only about 90 made sufficient incomes to cover the costs of actively building their business.' That's a 99.7 percent loss rate for investors."[28]

Although dated, a study showing the top 1% of Amway IBO's in Wisconsin lose money (net).

http://www.amquix.info/lawsuits/Wisconsin_AG.pdf

Losses are likely greater now as there are even more expenses than when the Wisconsin study was done.

My own experience in Amway (I was just below platinum) was break even/small loss with monthly operating costs effectively eating up any profits I made through my downline.

Mona Vie:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-level_marketing

Newsweek: based on Mona Vie's own 2007 income disclosure statement "fewer than 1 percent qualified for commissions and of those, only 10 percent made more than $100 a week."[29]

 

[Mycroft]

The last time I spoke to my sponsor was about 2 years ago. I'm still wondering where this "pressure" is coming from ...

So you can magically participate in the program without actually talking to anyone in the program. I doubt that is a typical experience.

Whoah, you pulled a fast one there! You still need to well, actually own and operate a business to be a business owner don't you?

Or do you believe that if I start referring to you as a sheep farmer, that magically makes you one?

Signing a contract that gives you the right to operate an Amway business does not mean you are operating an Amway business. If ABOs took you're advice they'd all think they'd be able to claim business expenses and most would be committing tax fraud.

Signing an Amway contract doesn't automatically mean you're running a business. I can't believe people still try to push that piece of BS.

All that aside, I didn't even say the average Amway business did $120/mth volume.

Ignoring all the red-herring nonsense about the definition of "Business", you claimed the average monthly order was less than 40 "points", whatever they are, and later indicated that was aproximately equal to $120 a month. That's terrible by anyone's standards. Seriously, grade-school girls selling candy-bars can do better than that, easily.

 

[icerat]

So you can magically participate in the program without actually talking to anyone in the program. I doubt that is a typical experience.

Not what I said. But it appears you think my sponsor speaking to me every few years is an unbearable pressure that forces me to buy products I don't want?

Ignoring all the red-herring nonsense about the definition of "Business"

It's not a red herring at all, it's integral to understanding the business model. You, and other critics, have this totally bizarre belief that just because somebody signs a membership form which uses a particular phrasing, that makes them a business owner working hard to earn money. It's a totally absurd belief contradicted not only by data, but plain old commonsense.

you claimed the average monthly order was less than 40 "points", whatever they are, and later indicated that was aproximately equal to $120 a month. That's terrible by anyone's standards. Seriously, grade-school girls selling candy-bars can do better than that, easily.

Do you actually bother reading what I wrote? Or are you deliberately trying to obfuscate with straw men and red herrings? Again, this was not business volume.

 

[AdMan]

Assuming you really aren't a paid shill, icerat, your obsession with defending MLM schemes against any and all criticism is really quite peculiar. May I ask why you spend all this time and energy doing so, if you're not getting paid? It's bizarre, to be honest.

 

[NewtonTrino]

You guys realize icerat and I went for 100's of posts in earlier threads about this several years ago.

I'm pretty fervently anti-MLM based on my experiences growing up around this Amway scam.

You guys also should realize you aren't talking to a random person with arguing with Icerat. He is by far the most prolific amway defender on the internet and has posted on numerous forums about this issue. He can take it as a compliment if he wants to but he certainly has no equal as a defender of all things amway

 

[AdMan]

You guys realize icerat and I went for 100's of posts in earlier threads about this several years ago.

I'm pretty fervently anti-MLM based on my experiences growing up around this Amway scam.

You guys also should realize you aren't talking to a random person with arguing with Icerat. He is by far the most prolific amway defender on the internet and has posted on numerous forums about this issue. He can take it as a compliment if he wants to but he certainly has no equal as a defender of all things amway

I've come to realize this, which was the reason for my question.

At least if he were paid, I'd understand his motivation.

But if he really is not a paid shill, as he claims... Talk about a weird obsession...

 

[NewtonTrino]

I've come to realize this, which was the reason for my question.

At least if he were paid, I'd understand his motivation.

But if he really is not a paid shill, as he claims... Talk about a weird obsession...

You need to understand the level of brainwashing that people involved in this go through. They have a very pervasive system that is extremely cult like in nature. Read between the lines of what he's been saying about "being trained to do x, y or z" and how people can learn this stuff. They have them listen to the leadership "motivate" them a lot both live and recorded. And they make a ton of money selling this dream which basically tells them they only way they can succeed is to "follow the system".

Of course icerat will claim that only certain "bad" groups do this kind of thing but that the groups he's involved with are honest. Nice try

Anyone who buys into this stuff enough will become an ardent defender even if they personally haven't been successful financially with it. As most aren't except for the ones selling the screeds to line their pockets.

 

[icerat]

Assuming you really aren't a paid shill, icerat, your obsession with defending MLM schemes against any and all criticism is really quite peculiar.

Also not true. I'm critical of many MLMs and aspects of MLM.

May I ask why you spend all this time and energy doing so, if you're not getting paid? It's bizarre, to be honest.

Two questions for you, Adman -

(1) Adman, you've done over 7000 posts on the JREF forum, what's your obsession? Why do you spend all this time and energy doing so?

(2) As I've asked several times - why are you, and others, obsessed with questioning my motives but have not such compulsion to question the motives of critics who spend far far more time attacking the model than I do defending it? Why is my action "bizarre" and there's not?

 

[AdMan]

(1) Adman, you've done over 7000 posts on the JREF forum, what's your obsession? Why do you spend all this time and energy doing so?

7000+ posts on a whole variety of topics. No obsession here, unless you can identify one.

(2) As I've asked several times - why are you, and others, obsessed with questioning my motives but have not such compulsion to question the motives of critics who spend far far more time attacking the model than I do defending it?

I've no obsession with questioning your motives. I just find it interesting and quite bizarre that you appear to find it so necessary to defend MLM schemes so compulsively. Just wondering what the reason is behind that.

 

[icerat]

7000+ posts on a whole variety of topics. No obsession here, unless you can identify one.

And I have half that many posts, on a whole variety of topics. It's a serious question Adman - why do you post here?

I've no obsession with questioning your motives. I just find it interesting and quite bizarre that you appear to find it so necessary to defend MLM schemes so compulsively. Just wondering what the reason is behind that.

What's "compulsive" about it? This thread has less than 300 comments total. The last MLM thread I commented on had similarly few. I've made over 3200 posts on jref. Without adding them up I'm pretty certain I've made more posts not about MLM than about MLM.

Tell me this, Adman - if there was an area you had significant experience and expertise in, and people were posting complete BS about it on JREF, would you reply or not?

And again - why don't you find it "interesting and quite bizarre" that some people find it so necessary to attack MLM so "compulsively"?

 

[AdMan]

And I have half that many posts, on a whole variety of topics. It's a serious question Adman - why do you post here?



What's "compulsive" about it? This thread has less than 300 comments total. The last MLM thread I commented on had similarly few. I've made over 3200 posts on jref. Without adding them up I'm pretty certain I've made more posts not about MLM than about MLM.

Tell me this, Adman - if there was an area you had significant experience and expertise in, and people were posting complete BS about it on JREF, would you reply or not?

And again - why don't you find it "interesting and quite bizarre" that some people find it so necessary to attack MLM so "compulsively"?

In virtually every thread I've seen here about MLM schemes you've dropped in to defend them.

There are posts with links showing how you've got 10+ blogs and other sites to defend MLMs, in addition to thousands of other posts elsewhere. Seems rather strange.

I don't follow you around the Internet and don't have much of an interest on the subject, but just based on what I've seen here I think you're obsessed with defending MLM schemes. At least if you were paid it would make sense. Since you maintain you're not, it's bizarre.

Not sure why anyone would need to attack MLMs, given their rotten reputation anyway.

 

[icerat]

In virtually every thread I've seen here about MLM schemes you've dropped in to defend them.

I note you keep refusing to answer my questions. Why?

There are posts with links showing how you've got 10+ blogs and other sites to defend MLMs, in addition to thousands of other posts elsewhere. Seems rather strange.

In other words, you believe the BS. I have one blog, where I average about 2 posts a month. I host a wiki which I rarely edit, and I have a little used forum. (all of which, btw, I do make money from via googleads). At one stage, many years ago, when I was having problems getting my blog updates on to google, I experimented with several categorised blogspot blogs so google would pick up the feeds. I haven't touched them since.

That's pretty much it.

The anti-icerat propagrandist on the other hand, who posts all this false or misleading information about me you've chosen to believe, actively posts on 3 different blogs, averaging nearly one post a day, as well as on multiple anti-mlm forums, and has even been caught creating entirely made up blogs under false names.

I don't follow you around the Internet and don't have much of an interest on the subject, but just based on what I've seen here I think you're obsessed with defending MLM schemes. At least if you were paid it would make sense. Since you maintain you're not, it's bizarre.

And yet you don't find someone who posts anti-mlm (and anti-me) propaganda all over the net, runs multiple blogs, including fraudulent ones, averaging nearly a post a day, makes no obvious money from them (no google ads) but only posts during business hours - that's not the least bit strange at all!

Exactly who is being bizarre?

Not sure why anyone would need to attack MLMs, given their rotten reputation anyway.

The "reputation" is only "slightly negative" and that's primarily because of the negative views of people with little or no experience dealing with them -

"... the global sample of non-customers, irrespective of gender and age, and based on secind-hand information, hearday, and other people's opinions (where their informants may or may not have had first hand experience of direct selling) shows a slightly negative perception of direct selling, the general tendency is that customers, based on their actual, first-hand, personal experience, have a considerably higher, more positive perception of direct selling"​

(source: Public Perceptions of Direct Selling: An International Perspective, University of Westminster)

Albaum & Peterson put it this way in Multilevel (network) marketing: An objective view, The Marketing Review, 2011, Vol. 11, No. 4 -

....the critics of multilevel marketing, whose wide-ranging assertions are merely opinions rather than scientifically based conclusions.

People can keep sprouting BS, I'll keep responding with "scientifically based conclusions". The fact you find me doing so "bizarre", but have no apparent problems with someone putting far, far more time and effort in to spreading BS says quite a bit more about you than it does about me.

 

[Mycroft]

Not what I said. But it appears you think my sponsor speaking to me every few years is an unbearable pressure that forces me to buy products I don't want?

Not what I said.

You can't simultaneously put yourself up as a typical example while describing ways in which you are not typical.

Which seems to be the basis for all your arguments. Whenever someone reports on the typical Amway experience, you bring up the non-typical experience and vise-versa. You never want to compare apples to apples.

It's not a red herring at all, it's integral to understanding the business model. You, and other critics, have this totally bizarre belief that just because somebody signs a membership form which uses a particular phrasing, that makes them a business owner working hard to earn money. It's a totally absurd belief contradicted not only by data, but plain old commonsense.

For starters, that's not what I was arguing, but since you raise the issue, how is it not a business? What is signing the "membership form" and paying the money if it's not comparable to buying a franchise with rights to sell a certain line of products? The only difference I can see is a matter of scale, but a small business is still a business.

Do you actually bother reading what I wrote? Or are you deliberately trying to obfuscate with straw men and red herrings? Again, this was not business volume.

Doesn't matter. It's not comparable to a single customer's order from Target, Amazon or Walmart either, which was the comparison you made. $120 in volume is terrible no matter how you look at it.

 

[Mycroft]

(2) As I've asked several times - why are you, and others, obsessed with questioning my motives but have not such compulsion to question the motives of critics who spend far far more time attacking the model than I do defending it? Why is my action "bizarre" and there's not?

Because warning people of a scam is an altruistic thing to do. For the same reason James Randi exposes frauds who bilk people.

 

[icerat]

You can't simultaneously put yourself up as a typical example while describing ways in which you are not typical.

No, I'm quite typical. Join, try the business for a while, for various reasons don't continue building it, but continue to buy the products.

For starters, that's not what I was arguing, but since you raise the issue, how is it not a business?

Seriously? I sit here and every few months I place an order for some stuff I want, and you think I'm running a business?

What is signing the "membership form" and paying the money if it's not comparable to buying a franchise with rights to sell a certain line of products? The only difference I can see is a matter of scale, but a small business is still a business.

If you buy franchise rights and then do nothing with it, you are not operating a business.

Doesn't matter. It's not comparable to a single customer's order from Target, Amazon or Walmart either, which was the comparison you made. $120 in volume is terrible no matter how you look at it.

That's not the comparison I made. I looked at monthly purchases for both, not single orders.

Now, tell me, how is the order I placed this week from Amway different to the order I placed this week from Amazon and the order I placed this week from eBay?

Because warning people of a scam is an altruistic thing to do. For the same reason James Randi exposes frauds who bilk people.

And claiming a business model is a scam when it's been investigated numerous times over decades in numerous countries - and cleared every time - requires bizarre conspiratorial thinking that ranks up there with the delusions of David Icke.