I fully agree with your assessment, and am glad you wrote up the summary. My lazyness prevents me from undertaking such an endeavour. I'm a little dissapointed that the candidate I voted for decided to declare himself the winner quite so prematurely, but at least he's the one with some support from the numbers coming out of IFE.
empeake
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Yes, I was also disappointed. He could have taken the high road and really boost his image as a law-abiding, respectful politician. Instead, he dived into the same muck as his opponent.
According to the PREP, the difference between both candidates is less than 500,000 votes!.
I think it is predictable that there will be some demostrations against the results, even more if we consider that from day one, the elections were plagued with dirty tricks, fishy contracts, etc.
Anyway, I think that previous independent polls already showed that Calderon would win the elections...
I am still holding my breath about the increase in the stock market.
empeake
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The general consensus is that these have been the "cleanest" elections in history. There has been cheating, for sure, but any party that accuses another of dirty tricks is a case of the pot calling the kettle black. The balance of power in Mexico is so even that probably any illegal incidents will cancel each other out.According to the PREP, the difference between both candidates is less than 500,000 votes!.
I think it is predictable that there will be some demostrations against the results, even more if we consider that from day one, the elections were plagued with dirty tricks, fishy contracts, etc.
Anyway, I think that previous independent polls already showed that Calderon would win the elections...
I am still holding my breath about the increase in the stock market.
Rob Lister
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I love the rhetoric coming from both sides. It is so much like the original bush/gore that its scary.
empeake
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Which shows that, all over the world, politics is essentially the same pile of [rule 8].
Rob Lister
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No disagreement there.
Were it not such an important pile of [rule 8], I'd ignore (or at least stop stepping in it).
General consensus?, I don't think so. We have to wait till we find out if the IFE did compute the votes accordingly. The situation does not look too clear now, a journalist from La Jornada has documented how some official ballots were found in a rubbish hole outside Mexico City ( http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2006/07/05/index.php ), all with identification numbers that were reported by the IFE in its website as valid votes!!!. I mean, this clearly shows that the counting votes were manipulated and any "official" result by the IFE result will be in doubt.
empeake
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First, I never said they were spotless, just that, compared the previous elections, they were "cleaner".
Second, "general" doesn't mean "unanimous".
Third, you have to consider the source when reading the news. "La Jornada" is a leftist newspaper. While it's a good counterweight to the mainstream media, I don't consider it to be completely objective, specially when it comes to news about the PRD.
Fourth, as I mentioned befores, all parties are guilty of fraud and manipulation. Accusations are always thrown around, many without evidence, and you know very well how easily conspiracy therories are born.
The IFE is an independent organization, with members and procedures approved and supervised the all the political parties. It may be imperfect, but the parties agreed to follow the rules and abide by them.
Simple majority is good enough for us.
empeake
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Exactly. And there's no second round. Whoever gets most votes in this election will be the winner. No need for an absolute majority (51%) of the votes.
Well, the **** is about to hit the fan. In the official count, AMLO (PRD) is leading by 1.6% with 86.61% of ballots counted. There is some speculation that the PRD has been delaying the count of PAN heavy states to give the impression AMLO is winning, for some uncertain nefarious future purpose. Either way it's going to get intense.
ETA: The gap is closing, it's down to 1.37 with 88.40% counted.
ETA2: 1.34, 88.60%.
ETA3: 1.31, 88.96%
ETA4: 1.24, 90.07%
ETA5: 1.18, 90.89%
ETA6: 1.16, 91.03%
ETA7: 1.02, 91.86%
ETA8: 0.99, 92%
ETA: The gap is closing, it's down to 1.37 with 88.40% counted.
ETA2: 1.34, 88.60%.
ETA3: 1.31, 88.96%
ETA4: 1.24, 90.07%
ETA5: 1.18, 90.89%
ETA6: 1.16, 91.03%
ETA7: 1.02, 91.86%
ETA8: 0.99, 92%
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Floridians (or partisan lawyers) could screw that up, too.
empeake
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Calderón will win if this trend continues. I project about 35.75% to 35.35%, which amounts to approximately only 167,300 votes. Hard to tell, though, since we don't know where the remaining ballots come from. Will be a race down to the wire.
If enough come from Nuevo Leon and Guanajuato, Calderón is going to win. Down to .38% gap, with 96.01% counted. I truly hope the whole slowing states down thing wasn't a ruse to cry foul tomorrow, to claim that the election was stolen in the middle of the night.
And getting closer. At this rate they are going to go into the last 2.5% - 3% tied.
ETA: 0.25% with 96.63% counted. They stil have to add some 4800 poling places, of which under 800 are in states that PRD won according to the PREP, and the rest went to the PAN.
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Update, PRD is leading with 35.71% of votes against 35.48% for PAN. The difference between them is just 0.23%.
If PRD hadn't demanded another counting of votes, at this moment Calderon would have won the elections. This is clear evidence of how the IFE was favouring Calderon and hiding votes for Lopez Obrador.
This is ridiculous, the evidence is documentated by many other people who has noticed manipulation of votes. Check these links:
If PRD hadn't demanded another counting of votes, at this moment Calderon would have won the elections. This is clear evidence of how the IFE was favouring Calderon and hiding votes for Lopez Obrador.
This is ridiculous, the evidence is documentated by many other people who has noticed manipulation of votes. Check these links:
I don't know what you mean. This is not a recount, this is the official count. The PREP is preliminary.
The only clear evidence I have seen so far is that the states that voted for AMLO were counted faster than the states that voted for FC. I don't know whose fault that was, but at 3AM I could not care less. I just want those freaking Colimans to get their freaking act together and count the damn 12 votes in that freaking speckle of a state. Or on the alternative, for Denise Maerker to lose her mind in the excitement and show us that see through thingy she's wearing.
0.15% gap, with 97.08% counted.