Mexican Airforce films UFOs

Astrophotographer said:
As you can see, I am NOT putting words in your mouth. Feel free to satisfactorily explain what you meant by the original statement that the values obtained by radar in the transcript "rips your oilflare hypothesis apart".

Already have, here:


You have to consider what Wipeout's version of the oilflare hypothesis includes, and one of the assumptions is that the radar had a psychosis. I was talking about the oilflare hypothesis in a holistic perspective.

Quit the rethorics please, and examine the diffrent hypothesis instead.

If you wanna support the oilflare hypothesis, you can start by explaining:

A) the object that splits and assembles.

B) The shape mismatch of the FLIR images and the oilflares.

I'm off to bed for now, good luck.
 
Thomas said:


Already have, here:

Quit the rethorics please, and examine the diffrent hypothesis instead.

If you wanna support the oilflare hypothesis, you can start by explaining:

A) the object that splits and assembles.

B) The shape mismatch of the FLIR images and the oilflares.

I'm off to bed for now, good luck.

I am not engagine in rethorics. I am trying to figure out why you appear to be mixing the facts up when you stated you "ripped apart" the oil flare hypothesis using the transcript data. Those were your words. If you choose to change their meaning that is your problem and not mine.

I feel that the oil flare hypothesis for the FLIR videos is a reasonable explanation at this moment. As I stated earlier, the bearings for the FLIR readings are something that really should not be ignored as mere coincidence.

Why an object splits and reforms could easily be explained by a number of ways. Perhaps the heat source was spread apart by the winds or maybe there were two heat sources very close together in the line of sight, or possibly the atmospherics scattered the source (I have seen this visually for low celestial objects). Those are just a few I can think of off the top of my head. However, I am not an expert on FLIR and the most I have ever used were simple firefighting thermal imagers. They tended to give some really odd images and weren't really meant for seeing details.

As for the shape differences, I have a possible answer. Most of the FLIR images are spherical and, apparently, "overexposed" (I believe the term is "blooming" when it comes to digital images). A planet does not look like a planet from great distances. For instance, Saturn does not look oblong when you see it visually in the night sky. Instead it looks like a point of light. Double stars also do not appear as two separate sources unless seen through high magnification. One can suggest that a fire seen through infared from a great distance would appear simply as an overexposed point of light and not something with significant detail. Again, I am not a FLIR expert and this is only a suggestion.
 
Astrophotographer said:
I am not engagine in rethorics. I am trying to figure out why you appear to be mixing the facts up when you stated you "ripped apart" the oil flare hypothesis using the transcript data. Those were your words. If you choose to change their meaning that is your problem and not mine.

I agree. The radar operator stated repeatedly in a later interview that these 11 infrared sources were never seen on radar. Any claim that radar evidence dismisses the theory that they were oil-flares is not correct.

The radar operator also indicates that there are only three radar signals.

The only object appearing on infrared and radar -- as far as I know right now -- is the first object in the whole incident which travels between two places with runways, appearing at one and disappearing at the other, and which I point out is very obviously an aircraft.

There are two much later radar objects, but what is happening with them is difficult to tell from what is available in public. My impression is that one sounds erratic and the other sounds constant and slow-moving in speed and direction.

It would not surprise me if the first object is radar only and some kind of false reading, and it would also not surprise me if the second object has infrared as well as radar as I suspect it is a helicopter. The military plane has flown a couple of hundred miles by this time and it'd be likely to encounter more aircraft at some point.
 
Astrophotographer said:
Why an object splits and reforms could easily be explained by a number of ways. Perhaps the heat source was spread apart by the winds
Flames dividing in two, seperates and gathers again, due to winds. I have never seen a flame do that, you have never seen a flame do that. Falsified.

or maybe there were two heat sources very close together in the line of sight
That was a solution I thought about myself when I first saw it, however, the heat sources doesn't just divide, they also gather again, so unless the airplane suddently began to fly backwards that solution is falsified.

or possibly the atmospherics scattered the source (I have seen this visually for low celestial objects).
And then only one of the six objects in the formation decides to be influenced by the atmospherics. Falsified.

As for the shape differences, I have a possible answer. Most of the FLIR images are spherical and, apparently, "overexposed" (I believe the term is "blooming" when it comes to digital images). A planet does not look like a planet from great distances. For instance, Saturn does not look oblong when you see it visually in the night sky. Instead it looks like a point of light. Double stars also do not appear as two separate sources unless seen through high magnification. One can suggest that a fire seen through infared from a great distance would appear simply as an overexposed point of light and not something with significant detail. Again, I am not a FLIR expert and this is only a suggestion.
The shapes on the FLIR images and the shape of an oilflare, are not only mismatching, they are cleancut opposite elliptical shapes. I don't see how that can be possible if these objects are to be oilflares. However, the sensor resolution of the SAFIRE II is just 240x320 and that will call for slightly twisted shapes on vast distances, but slightly twisted shapes, and directly opposite shapes, are two diffrent things.
 
wipeout said:
The only object appearing on infrared and radar -- as far as I know right now -- is the first object in the whole incident which travels between two places with runways, appearing at one and disappearing at the other, and which I point out is very obviously an aircraft.

Originally posted by Thomas
Remember the AoA business. For the FLIR reading and the RADAR reading to be picking up the same object, the one over Carmen to be exact, then AoA can't have any influence on the elevation scale of the FLIR. Because, in the timezone 16:55 - 16:57 they are picking up an object with both the RADAR and the FLIR, and the FLIR would be looking 6-12 degrees down towards the ground if AoA have any impact on the angle of the camera. Voice C clearly states that the FLIR is at elevation 0.

(In the beginning of the official video one can see how elevation -10 looks like at 16:43:00)

This gives us two solutions:

1) AoA dont have any impact on the camera reading. Hence, point A, B and C are objects picked up by the FLIR above and/or near horizon level.

2) The objects picked up by the RADAR and the FLIR, are in fact two diffrent objects.

Quit the woowoo-research methods please, and pick one.
 
Thomas said:

Flames dividing in two, seperates and gathers again, due to winds. I have never seen a flame do that, you have never seen a flame do that. Falsified.

How do you know what is possible and not possible with flames and the wind? Is this an expert opinion or just a guess.

Thomas said:
And then only one of the six objects in the formation decides to be influenced by the atmospherics. Falsified.

The atmosphere is not uniform. There are hot spots/cold spots, updrafts/downdrafts, etc.. Again, your statement appears more made out of opinion than anything else.

Thomas said:

The shapes on the FLIR images and the shape of an oilflare, are not only mismatching, they are cleancut opposite elliptical shapes. I don't see how that can be possible if these objects are to be oilflares. However, the sensor resolution of the SAFIRE II is just 240x320 and that will call for slightly twisted shapes on vast distances, but slightly twisted shapes, and directly opposite shapes, are two diffrent things.


Without additional footage of actual oilwell fires from a distance, it is hard to determine if they are or are not oil well fires.

All your statements are opinions and not facts, which you seem to be most interested in sticking to. I only proposed them as possible reasons and not THE reasons for these items. I think you are trying to bring up small details in order to try and find another reason to state the oil well fires hypothesis is "ripped apart", which seems to be your intent.
 
Quit the woowoo-research methods please, and pick one.

And this from you, the person behind an analysis leading to an invisible-ball-lightning-flying-in-formation-and-chasing-airplanes theory on page 4 of this thread? Whether or not your research methods are scientific, that conclusion was pretty "out there"...

I've only jokingly suggested balloons at first because they were near an airport, then seriously suggested human error combining oil-flares on infrared, and aircraft and false radar signals into something that they weren't.

That the first object has radar and infrared and appears at one runway, accelerates to several hundred knots, flies in a straight line, turns and then disappears near another runway, strongly suggests it was simply an aircraft, and that this is even included by the aircrew as part of a UFO sighting strongly suggests human error is involved in both their interpretation and the official investigation.

Quite why you are so patronizing and disrespectful of me, I do not know as I have had many opportunities to counter-attack but haven't. An example of that is your attempt to dismiss the oil-flare theory for the main 11 infrared objects by their radar signals, when the radar operator repeatedly said they never had any.

There is no need to make this a personal battle.
 
Astrophotographer said:
How do you know what is possible and not possible with flames and the wind? Is this an expert opinion or just a guess.
You don't need to be a weather expert to realize that the wind can't possibly influence just one oilflare, and leave the others completely intact. The day you get any footage showing a line of trees and only one of the trees are influenced by a strong wind while the others just stand still. Then we can talk, untill then, it's but baloney.

The atmosphere is not uniform. There are hot spots/cold spots, updrafts/downdrafts, etc.. Again, your statement appears more made out of opinion than anything else.
Amazing that the atmosphere chose to just influence one of the oilflares. However, I have never seen an object become two because of specialized atmospheric effects. Effects of alchohol might do the trick, but that's another matter.

Without additional footage of actual oilwell fires from a distance, it is hard to determine if they are or are not oil well fires.
True, that's why a certain researcher has asked SEDENA to fly over the same area again to search for similar objects at ground level. The oilflare hypothesis is merely a bold version of the more common ground source hypothesis.

All your statements are opinions and not facts, which you seem to be most interested in sticking to.
Excuse me, but you're the one who talks about weird wind phenomena which is able to influence just one out of six objects in formation. You're the one who suggests abnormal atmospheric events. But, true, it's opinions, and if you suggested that it was Bigfoot and his family, and I said that we have no conlusive evidence to support the existence of such a creature. It would also be an opinion. So you're right, this is absolutely oilflares, and one of them gets influenced by a selective wind and/or weird atmospheric effetcs.

I only proposed them as possible reasons and not THE reasons for these items. I think you are trying to bring up small details in order to try and find another reason to state the oil well fires hypothesis is "ripped apart", which seems to be your intent.
Call it what you want, I have already said several times why I'm trying to falsify the assumptions. If you were really looking for the truth behind this phenomenon, and not biased towards any solutions, you wouldn't be so terrified for falsifications. I personally think this will become a theory of mixed events, and I'm not gonna dodge the events that are toughest to explain with 'malfunctions' and highly unlikely phenomena.
 
wipeout said:
And this from you, the person behind an analysis leading to an invisible-ball-lightning-flying-in-formation-and-chasing-airplanes theory on page 4 of this thread? Whether or not your research methods are scientific, that conclusion was pretty "out there"...
For one thing, ball lightning are known to get attracted by conductors like airplanes. They have invaded airplanes on several occasions. Furthermore, I never said anything other than that it was hard to find any objections against that hypothesis. As soon as the objections came about, I dropped that hypothesis and you didn't even bother to examine it, because you were so busy building your pile of assumptions that you didn't care to look in any other directions, and nothing have changed since then.

That the first object has radar and infrared and appears at one runway, accelerates to several hundred knots, flies in a straight line, turns and then disappears near another runway, strongly suggests it was simply an aircraft, and that this is even included by the aircrew as part of a UFO sighting strongly suggests human error is involved in both their interpretation and the official investigation.
And here you put words into the mouth of the pilots, they never claimed this was an UFO, in fact they reported it to be an airplane and the only thing that are stated, is that they couldn't determine if it was an airplane or not, and this is no wonder, because the FLIR and RADAR was looking at two diffrent objects with 12 degrees distance apart.

Quite why you are so patronizing and disrespectful of me, I do not know as I have had many opportunities to counter-attack but haven't. ´
Counter attack what? I haven't proposed any hypothesis as conclusive, like you have. It's less than 24 hours ago that you just stated that you dont understand why people didn't just accept that the FLIR lights was oilflares as soon as you discovered that there were oil facilities in the area. You have thought this to be the conclusion for weeks now, and yet you haven't been able to back any of your most basic claims up with evidence.
I'm not disrespectful, assumptions are an important part of research, but even more important is evidence to support the assumptions. Like feyd ratha said, you're just repeating the same assumptions over-and-over again like a tireless parrot, but that doesn't strengthen your case, it just makes you look absurd, subjective and stubborn.

An example of that is your attempt to dismiss the oil-flare theory for the main 11 infrared objects by their radar signals, when the radar operator repeatedly said they never had any.
You're gonna show me exactly where I said that word-for-word, no interpretations, or redraw that ludicrous, pathetic statement immediately.

There is no need to make this a personal battle.
Then I suggest you quit making assumptions about my intentions, quit putting words in my mouth and start to collect evidence to support your assertions.

I'm not gonna debate your assumptions any further, there's no need to, because your hypothesis is false anyway, until you collect the relevant evidence to support it. That's how science works, like it or not.
It's getting more and more ludicrous by the hour, the assumptions to support the oilflare hypothesis is simply piling up as the data is flowing in. It's out of order, hence a waste of time.
 
Thomas said:

You don't need to be a weather expert to realize that the wind can't possibly influence just one oilflare, and leave the others completely intact. .

So because an oil well that is 5-10 miles away from others experiences an odd gust of wind, the others have to exhibit the same effect?

Thomas said:

Amazing that the atmosphere chose to just influence one of the oilflares. However, I have never seen an object become two because of specialized atmospheric effects. Effects of alchohol might do the trick, but that's another matter.

So, because you have never seen an object split and reform under atmospheric conditions, it can't happen? Do you have any experience in astronomy and visual observations at high magnifications of low objects? I have seen stars do some odd things including appearing to split and reform without the influence of alchohol. I suggest you read "The nature of light and color in the open air" by M.Minnaert to see the various phenomena.

As I stated before those were proposed solutions. Flatly stating, "That can't happen" is not falsifying the hypothesis.

However, let's reexamine a hypothesis you stated did not fit. The splitting, reforming and splitting again of two objects could be explained by parallax. One object is much further away than the other. As the planes motion moves forward, the first object will appear to the right of the more distant one. As the plane flies further east, the lights would appear to merge as the closer objects angular displacement is greater than the more distant one. As the plane continues its flight path, the closer object would then "move" to the left side of the more distant object. This is what I see between 17:06:36 and 17:07:01 on the tape to the left most object in the first trio formation. Unfortunately, the copy I have ends at this moment and I can't find any that go beyond 17:07:22 when the objects are again behind clouds.Based on what I can see, the angular separation increases by the time they go behind the clouds, which tends to support this hypothesis. I was unable to see where an object was singular, split, and then reformed into one object as you appear to have stated. Perhaps you can give us a time tag or an image capture to help me/us identify exactly what you are talking about.
 
Astrophotographer said:
So because an oil well that is 5-10 miles away from others experiences an odd gust of wind, the others have to exhibit the same effect?
If we assume that there are 5-10 between them, then a wind can possibly affect one of them independant of the others. So now we an assumption and we add that to the a possibility. Two variables on the run.

However, you're gonna have to provide evidence for that assumption before we take it any further, becuase the only place I have seen a flame divide in two and clearly seperate, is in Disney's Fantasia.


So, because you have never seen an object split and reform under atmospheric conditions, it can't happen? Do you have any experience in astronomy and visual observations at high magnifications of low objects? I have seen stars do some odd things including appearing to split and reform without the influence of alchohol. I suggest you read "The nature of light and color in the open air" by M.Minnaert to see the various phenomena.
I don't know that book, but it sounds interesting. However, you can't draw a clean parallel between star observations and observations of heat sources through an IR device in the troposphere for what I know. For one thing, the diffrence is this:
  • Stratosphere.
  • Mesosphere
  • Thermosphere.

Edit: Another thing is that IR responds to a diffrent wavelength than normal cameras. So the parallel to normal cameras is irrelevant to my knowledge. However, I'm pretty sure you knew this already, it's just a reminder.

As I stated before those were proposed solutions. Flatly stating, "That can't happen" is not falsifying the hypothesis.
I haven't flatly stated 'That can't happen', I have supported the falsifications with sound arguments.

If you want to find reasonable solutions with me, you're gonna have to stop making those straw men. At least Wipeout doesn't make straw men, he have just adopted one of those you made earlier about me.


However, let's reexamine a hypothesis you stated did not fit. The splitting, reforming and splitting again of two objects could be explained by parallax. One object is much further away than the other. As the planes motion moves forward, the first object will appear to the right of the more distant one. As the plane flies further east, the lights would appear to merge as the closer objects angular displacement is greater than the more distant one. As the plane continues its flight path, the closer object would then "move" to the left side of the more distant object. This is what I see between 17:06:36 and 17:07:01 on the tape to the left most object in the first trio formation. Unfortunately, the copy I have ends at this moment and I can't find any that go beyond 17:07:22 when the objects are again behind clouds.
Based on what I can see, the angular separation increases by the time they go behind the clouds, which tends to support this hypothesis. I was unable to see where an object was singular, split, and then reformed into one object as you appear to have stated.
However, it wasn't split at 17:07:33. So its gathered, split, gathered, split. In this perspective I fail to see how that hypothesis is a possible solution to a theory. Of course you couldn't know that with the resources you have.

Perhaps you can give us a time tag or an image capture to help me/us identify exactly what you are talking about.
No sorry, I can't give you the resources I have, and I have worked hard towards getting them published for all to see already. Actually I think it's ludicrous myself. I hope that it want be long before the material gets official though, and I will push those buttons I can to get it done asap.
 
Thomas said:
For one thing, ball lightning are known to get attracted by conductors like airplanes. They have invaded airplanes on several occasions. Furthermore, I never said anything other than that it was hard to find any objections against that hypothesis. As soon as the objections came about, I dropped that hypothesis and you didn't even bother to examine it, because you were so busy building your pile of assumptions that you didn't care to look in any other directions, and nothing have changed since then.

We have intense points of infrared which don't appear on radar in the direction of an area covered in oil-rigs at sea and oil-facilities on land. It looks, walks and quacks a lot like a duck... so it's a duck, as far as I'm concerned.

I'm not going to chase down theories about balls of lighting, secret stealth aircraft, etc., etc. that anyone can think of.

I've seen ball-lightning and know it exists, but I've also seen oil-facilities with lots of oil-flares and we all know they exist, and these are definitely in the area in question.

Also, this whole incident could be a case like when someone sees a UFO in a a clear sky, but somehow doesn't see Venus, which was in the exact same direction at that exact time....

This aircrew spotted these intense points of heat in a direction of an area covered in oil-facilities, but never saw the points of heat of the oil-facilties. Perhaps they were out of range but, if not, then like Venus, the oil-facilties must have become invisible just for the UFO sighting.... if this person who spotted the UFO is not making a mistake, of course.

And here you put words into the mouth of the pilots, they never claimed this was an UFO, in fact they reported it to be an airplane and the only thing that are stated, is that they couldn't determine if it was an airplane or not, and this is no wonder, because the FLIR and RADAR was looking at two diffrent objects with 12 degrees distance apart.

The aircrew refer to the first object detected in the later interview in the same way as they do the later ones, and never say that this first object "was just another airplane" or "the footage includes an aircraft from about 16:42 to 17:00".

Whether by accident or intention, they include the first object in the UFO sighting.

Counter attack what? I haven't proposed any hypothesis as conclusive, like you have. It's less than 24 hours ago that you just stated that you dont understand why people didn't just accept that the FLIR lights was oilflares as soon as you discovered that there were oil facilities in the area. You have thought this to be the conclusion for weeks now, and yet you haven't been able to back any of your most basic claims up with evidence.

You said that I consider this case solved, unless new data should appear about the ball-lightning theory in the 4th page of this thread, so you have in fact made a statement about a hypothesis that sounds fairly conclusive.

I'll do the same and say that I consider the case mostly solved, unless new evidence should appear, as the current evidence fits just fine other than some possible oversight due to a lack of clear information released on the last part of the incident.

I'd like to know more about the later radar objects to the east and perhaps west, and the infrared sources to the north and west and see how all this fits together, but since everyone who has access to the full footage and full flight recording is keeping most of it from the public, these individuals seem strangely protective of this "conclusive evidence for aliens" or whatever the hell they think it shows.

How very kind of them to edit and filter what we get to see and hear into little bits, as it makes it harder for any skeptics to put it to a complete analysis, so hard that the last part of the incident is unintelligible from the information released.

I'm not disrespectful, assumptions are an important part of research, but even more important is evidence to support the assumptions. Like feyd ratha said, you're just repeating the same assumptions over-and-over again like a tireless parrot, but that doesn't strengthen your case, it just makes you look absurd, subjective and stubborn.

This needs no further comment, other than to suggest you relax and not take this subject so seriously.

You're gonna show me exactly where I said that word-for-word, no interpretations, or redraw that ludicrous, pathetic statement immediately.

You just had a conversation with Astrophotographer about that.

But here we go again anyway....

I'm avoiding the transcript? Listen, the transcript states altitudes, speeds, distances and directions of the objects which rips your oilflare hypothesis apart, and you're dodging it all with your various assumptions.

Since the infrared camera readings only give direction, you must be referring to the radar here. Therefore you believe the radar goes against the oil-flare theory for the main 11 infrared objects... but the radar operator says these 11 infrared objects were never detected on radar.

Then I suggest you quit making assumptions about my intentions, quit putting words in my mouth and start to collect evidence to support your assertions.

I'm not going to collect any more evidence to support my theory than I have already. I'm not being paid to solve it, I just did it for fun.

I'm not gonna debate your assumptions any further, there's no need to, because your hypothesis is false anyway, until you collect the relevant evidence to support it. That's how science works, like it or not.

No, it's not false or even true, a hypothesis -- or "theory" as the terms are equivalent, despite your earlier claim -- is unproven.

But some theories can obviously be much more likely than others....

It's getting more and more ludicrous by the hour, the assumptions to support the oilflare hypothesis is simply piling up as the data is flowing in. It's out of order, hence a waste of time.

Please release any data you have on the last part of the incident. :)
 
Wipeout,

It's not to bite your head off I'm running the falsification research. I know I've been a little bit aggressive here-and-there, but I'm normally a very polite and sensible person.
From what I have been reading in this thread, I think you're a good man as well. But I must admit, that I tend to lose my temper when people begin to make straw men about my intentions and twist my arguments to something that it is very easy to mistake for deliberate misinterpretations.

I'm a human being like everybody else, so of course I make mistakes now and then. This is why my intention is to gather as much info as possible from the relevant sources, and I already have quite an amount. When I have presented that info in here, it has very often either been dodged as incorrect, although it comes from very reliable sources, or modified. I have slowly become more and more aggressive on this account.

You should try to do what you can to prove the assumptions in your hypothesis. The most essential is that you provide conclusive evidence for these parts:

  • The camera was conclusively looking below horizon level.
  • The relevant oil flares appear in the correct pattern and direction for point A, B, C, D and E.
  • The relevant oil flares in point C was ignited simultaneously.
  • The relevant oil flares in point C was shut down simultaneously.
  • The distance to the relevant oil flares are detectable with the SAFIRE II within all points.

That will take care of the most essential parts concerning the most basic parts of the oil flares, then we can look at the radar signals, and maybe you have found an explanation to the divide/gather object and the shape mismatch in this effort.

As I said earlier, I will not engage further in analysing assumptions without any evidence to back them up. Nor will I seek out evidence to verify the oilflare hypothesis, because there are several variants of the ground source hypothesis which are equally likely imho.

There's no point in debating all the assumptions, theories backed up by evidence are worth debating, but hypothesis rarely lead to a healty debate because they are within the anything-goes spectrum.
Please do us all a favor, and see if you can provide the evidence to support the hypothesis, and then let's look at it, until then, the analysis are simply based on a too weak amount of data. I figure that you'll agree with me in this concern.
 
Astrophotographer said:
The splitting, reforming and splitting again of two objects could be explained by parallax.

I had also wondered about parallax.

Just thinking some more now about these -- apparently splitting -- infrared sources, an alternative theory is that, a lot like putting a bit of metal at the base of the flame of a Bunsen burner in science class at school, something is physically splitting the flare into two for some reason.

Or perhaps it's some kind of emergency blow-off valve for extreme gas pressures, a second flare coming and going as the valve is opened and closed.

We just don't know enough about the oil-facilities to decide. :)
 
wipeout said:
I'm not going to collect any more evidence to support my theory than I have already. I'm not being paid to solve it, I just did it for fun.
You dont want to do a scientific study of your hypothesis, good, you should have said so to begin with, because then I wouldn't have bothered to waste my time on it.

Nor will I bother to debunk all those straw men and misinterpretations you have stated in the previous post, it's also a waste of time.

Have your fun with throwing around unsubstanciated claims you refuse to back up with evidence, but dont expect anyone to take you serious.

A hypothesis is the same as a theory? What a laugh, that just shows the level I've wasted my time on here.
 
Thomas said:
Wipeout,

It's not to bite your head off I'm running the falsification research. I know I've been a little bit aggressive here-and-there, but I'm normally a very polite and sensible person.
From what I have been reading in this thread, I think you're a good man as well. But I must admit, that I tend to lose my temper when people begin to make straw men about my intentions and twist my arguments to something that it is very easy to mistake for deliberate misinterpretations.

I'm a human being like everybody else, so of course I make mistakes now and then. This is why my intention is to gather as much info as possible from the relevant sources, and I already have quite an amount. When I have presented that info in here, it has very often either been dodged as incorrect, although it comes from very reliable sources, or modified. I have slowly become more and more aggressive on this account.

You should try to do what you can to prove the assumptions in your hypothesis. The most essential is that you provide conclusive evidence for these parts:

  • The camera was conclusively looking below horizon level.
  • The relevant oil flares appear in the correct pattern and direction for point A, B, C, D and E.
  • The relevant oil flares in point C was ignited simultaneously.
  • The relevant oil flares in point C was shut down simultaneously.
  • The distance to the relevant oil flares are detectable with the SAFIRE II within all points.

That will take care of the most essential parts concerning the most basic parts of the oil flares, then we can look at the radar signals, and maybe you have found an explanation to the divide/gather object and the shape mismatch in this effort.

As I said earlier, I will not engage further in analysing assumptions without any evidence to back them up. Nor will I seek out evidence to verify the oilflare hypothesis, because there are several variants of the ground source hypothesis which are equally likely imho.

There's no point in debating all the assumptions, theories backed up by evidence are worth debating, but hypothesis rarely lead to a healty debate because they are within the anything-goes spectrum.
Please do us all a favor, and see if you can provide the evidence to support the hypothesis, and then let's look at it, until then, the analysis are simply based on a too weak amount of data. I figure that you'll agree with me in this concern.

Thomas,

I have no problem with you at all. I'm determined but very relaxed about the whole issue. We can agree to disagree and I'm happy with that. :)

I'm not holding any grudges about anything. Good luck with your information gathering. You're doing a better job here than any other dedicated UFO believer or skeptic I'm aware of.

I might try and figure out the possible oil-companies involved and e-mail for information. Might not, though.

I think you appreciate that it's impossible for anyone to influence me to change my mind when I believe in something, so it'll be wise for us to say we just differ in opinion and leave it at that. :)
 
wipeout said:
I think you appreciate that it's impossible for anyone to influence me to change my mind when I believe in something, so it'll be wise for us to say we just differ in opinion and leave it at that. :)
Sounds like a plan.
 
Just read the second latest from Thomas...

I tried to end it peacefully and now discover he's gone and got insulting (again), patronized me (again), and refuses to acknowledge my answers to objections he asked for answers to (again).

Okay, then... having checked several dictionaries' definitions of "hypothesis," the word "theory" is given as a synonym and the word even begins one definition of hypothesis. Like I said, some theories can obviously be much more likely than others and what Thomas calls a hypothesis, I'll call a theory with incomplete evidence. In the context I used the word, they are equivalent.

Whatever, I say again to him...

Please release any data you have on the last part of the incident. :)

Times, directions, distances, altitudes, speeds, radar signals or not, infrared images or not, none of this is material which can't be posted here, even if only a brief summary.
 
wipeout said:
Just read the second latest from Thomas...
Yea well, I was writing the sensible post, and when I came out, I saw you had launched a series of attacks again meanwhile I was writing the sensible post. Then I went furious again and wrote the post you refer to, and when I came out, guess what, you had posted a sensible post :)
The posts overlapped eachother in a very unlucky manner. A forum paradox.

I suggest that we do what you proposed, and agree to disagree and leave it to that.

Anyway, there are clear definitions on theory and hypothesis, I know this because I have an academic degree in theory of science. A theory is primary backed up by evidence, and a hypothesis are primary backed up by assumptions. This is why you have never heard anyone call the theory of relativity, the relativity hypothesis, or the hypothesis of evolution for that matter. If anyone has done so, they are either religious or unaware of the diffrence.

I'm not gonna release the information of course, I'm not gonna backstab any of those who feed me with info. That's a matter of integrity. Guess what, I have also talked with Jamie Maussan now.
 
Thomas said:
Yea well, I was writing the sensible post, and when I came out, I saw you had launched a series of attacks again meanwhile I was writing the sensible post. Then I went furious again and wrote the post you refer to, and when I came out, guess what, you had posted a sensible post :)
The posts overlapped eachother in a very unlucky manner. A forum paradox.

We two have great timing. :D

I suggest that we do what you proposed, and agree to disagree and leave it to that.

Let's go back to that again, yes.

To continue would only end in... :brk:

I'm not gonna release the information of course, I'm not gonna backstab any of those who feed me with info. That's a matter of integrity. Guess what, I have also talked with Jamie Maussan now.

Since the military will have removed all sensitive information from the raw footage and flight crew audio, the reluctance of various people to share the video and audio makes me wonder if any of them want to release books and videos on the subject with "exclusive" images and aircrew transcript.

The "truth" is out there. In the stores now. For only $9.95. ;)
 

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