[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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We could also be "standing wave"(*) which your not-A does not consider.

(*) once we die our consciousness is wiped out, and we are again at our moment of birth. But all our action never change , history never change, and we are just condemned for eternity to repeat our life, the same life, for all eternity, without any change of a ioata of a second to it. Just going back and forth from birth to death. All the same. For ever eand ever.
De facto both mortal (we do not exists after our birth in the time line), and immortal (we never disappear just repeat infinitely the same life voer and over).

Does you find this pleasant ? me I don't find it pleasant, but it *is* one of the possibilities among many many others in your ~A

I would rather be mortal than be immortal as described above.
Apervius,

- Very interesting!

- I wrote a SF short story, (about 40 years ago but never published) in which a team of scientists believing that time travel was possible, were trying to develop a machine for doing it. What they didn't know was the "kind" of time travel that was possible: would they go back and be able to change history, or would they go back and only be able to observe history?
- What they ultimately discovered was neither. What they ultimately discovered was that all they could do was go back and relive their own lives exactly as they already had. They would have no memory of the life they just lived.
- They had worked on this for a long time; they had really enjoyed that period of their lives -- being nerds, the other nerds on the team were their closest friends and ‘family’; and, they decided to take the leap… As they entered the time machine, they suddenly realized that they didn't know how many times they had already done this… (I don't have a copy of the story, so at this point, I'm adlibbing a bit...)

- Just a different version of "Groundhog Day."
- I can't remember what I called the story -- but, I should have called it "Immortality."
- Since then, I have come to realize that such a scenario actually fits the improbability of my current existence under proposition A, better than any of the other possibilities. Maybe, our films just keep rewinding forever.
- Hey! For me at least, It sure beats oblivion forever...
 
- Since then, I have come to realize that such a scenario actually fits the improbability of my current existence under proposition A, better than any of the other possibilities. Maybe, our films just keep rewinding forever.
- Hey! For me at least, It sure beats oblivion forever...

Oh, if only I had a couple of million pounds in the bank.
- Hey! For me at least, it would sure beat being relatively poor forever...

Or: if I could only walk again.
- Hey! For me at least, it would sure beat being stuck in a wheelchair forever...

But the problem is that reality doesn't care about what we want. Unless you or anyone else can come up with some evidence supporting repeating our lives with no memory crossover, or any other kinds of immortality, the null hypothesis (that everyone who exists lives one life) stands.

If the reason that you are enamoured of immortality is because you have a fear of oblivion, that is fine, but the minute you attempt to "essentially prove" immortality by using logic and some strange numbers with no factual basis, you are simply attempting to "essentially prove" having a million dollars in the bank without actually looking at your bank balance.
 
Look it is easy. Think of it as geometry in a 1D, 1.5D or 2D universe (with time).


A is a segment (---- the timeline infinite in both direction ++++ where our consciousness live B birth , D Death)
Code:
---------------------B++++++++++++D-----------------

Not A is everything which is not a segment. This include :
1) a half-line open "before" (our consciousness lived from the start of the universe but die when we die in this life)
Code:
+++++++++++++++B++++++++++++D-----------------
2) a line (we always existed since the start of the universe or even before in other universe and will always exists)
Code:
+++++++++++++++B++++++++++++D++++++++++
...

... An example cited above, is , our consciousness was born at the start of the universe, or even existed forever in other universe before, but once reincarnated into human, we live, then die, and it is the *end*.The problem is that you will not be able to determine the probability of A or not A simply because there are so many unknown, some of which are actually not at all immortality as demonstrated above.
Aepervius,

- I think that the condition I placed upon my alleged complementary hypotheses excludes any other possibilities. For your geometry model, you'd just have to add a condition or two (or three...).

- I accept that ~A, in this case, allows for something less than immortality. For the moment, I'm just trying to show that the posterior probability of ~A, given my current existence, is much greater than the posterior probability of A, given my current existence.
- If I can show that, I'll try to show why "more than once" is best interpreted as "periodic forever" (whatever "forever" means).

- It seems to me that the highlighted possibilities above are, in fact, included within my alleged complementaries.
 
Apervius,

- Very interesting!

- I wrote a SF short story, (about 40 years ago but never published) in which a team of scientists believing that time travel was possible, were trying to develop a machine for doing it. What they didn't know was the "kind" of time travel that was possible: would they go back and be able to change history, or would they go back and only be able to observe history?
- What they ultimately discovered was neither. What they ultimately discovered was that all they could do was go back and relive their own lives exactly as they already had. They would have no memory of the life they just lived.
- They had worked on this for a long time; they had really enjoyed that period of their lives -- being nerds, the other nerds on the team were their closest friends and ‘family’; and, they decided to take the leap… As they entered the time machine, they suddenly realized that they didn't know how many times they had already done this… (I don't have a copy of the story, so at this point, I'm adlibbing a bit...)

- Just a different version of "Groundhog Day."
- I can't remember what I called the story -- but, I should have called it "Immortality."
- Since then, I have come to realize that such a scenario actually fits the improbability of my current existence under proposition A, better than any of the other possibilities. Maybe, our films just keep rewinding forever.
- Hey! For me at least, It sure beats oblivion forever...

I am unsure why you think it beats oblivion, but far more importantly: Would your looping self really enjoy eternity knowing that billions of people will forever live lives of crushing poverty in misogynistic, bigoted societies? Isn't that An exceptionally high price to pay?
 
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I am unsure why you think it beats oblivion, but far more importantly: Would your looping self really enjoy eternity knowing that billions of people will forever live lives of crushing poverty in misogynistic, bigoted societies? Isn't that An exceptionally high price to pay?
Or an abused child having to relive the abuse over and over and over again? Or someone in constant pain due to illness or injury having to suffer that pain for all eternity? Sounds like a terrible thing to me, and it sure would not beat oblivion for those people.
 
Oh, if only I had a couple of million pounds in the bank.
- Hey! For me at least, it would sure beat being relatively poor forever...

Or: if I could only walk again.
- Hey! For me at least, it would sure beat being stuck in a wheelchair forever...

But the problem is that reality doesn't care about what we want. Unless you or anyone else can come up with some evidence supporting repeating our lives with no memory crossover, or any other kinds of immortality, the null hypothesis (that everyone who exists lives one life) stands.

If the reason that you are enamoured of immortality is because you have a fear of oblivion, that is fine, but the minute you attempt to "essentially prove" immortality by using logic and some strange numbers with no factual basis, you are simply attempting to "essentially prove" having a million dollars in the bank without actually looking at your bank balance.
Agatha,
- Sorry to hear about your condition. Sounds like I (personally) would not like to relive your life forever...
- I've been very lucky. I've had an easy, mostly enjoyable life (especially since I was 14, and started believing in immortality), and would prefer repeating it forever to being oblivious forever.

- Though this explanation seems perfect in a sense, I seriously doubt that it's how immortality actually works.
 
I am unsure why you think it beats oblivion, but far more importantly: Would your looping self really enjoy eternity knowing that billions of people will forever live lives of crushing poverty in misogynistic, bigoted societies? Isn't that An exceptionally high price to pay?
Ladewig,
- You're right. I had never thought about those ramifications.
 
Or an abused child having to relive the abuse over and over and over again? Or someone in constant pain due to illness or injury having to suffer that pain for all eternity? Sounds like a terrible thing to me, and it sure would not beat oblivion for those people.
Agatha,
- Agreed.
 
Let's see if I have any better luck with my approach--


You want to live forever
It's every human's dream
Old memories will wrack your mind
Like a tortured scream
People's faces blur together
They all look the same
Until you can't remember friends
Or anybody's name
Species change as they evolve
But you cannot, I fear
Because you never die
Your ancient traits won't disappear
Millennia will pass
And you will see the end of days
And everyone you've ever loved
Has long since passed away
The world has withered as you watched
Great nations come and gone
Humanity has had its turn
And now you're all alone
The growing sun engulfs the Earth
Consuming it in fire
Yet fate ensures you're left behind
For you cannot expire
Without a home you're set adrift
Across the universe
Where time speeds up, you grow insane
And galaxies disperse
You float without direction
Across the blackened sea
Is this what you imagined
For all eternity?
You want to live forever
'Til time comes to an end
Frozen in the dead of space
Without a single friend
- Nice poem.
 
- I've been very lucky. I've had an easy, mostly enjoyable life (especially since I was 14, and started believing in immortality), and would prefer repeating it forever to being oblivious forever.

Some might say that you would be doomed to repeat the same life and thereby remain oblivious forever.
 
Yes, I read the linked section.
I still don't understand what Jesus has to do with immortality. :(
Pakeha,
- Both are considered "magical."
- In that section of my website, I try to explain why we should believe in Magic. Doing so, would support a belief in immortality as much as it would support a belief in Jesus.
 
Ladewig,
- You're right. I had never thought about those ramifications.

Good morning, Mr. Savage! I do hope your Tuesday is going well.

At the risk of having this deteriorate into a film critique, one of the reasons Groundhog Day works as a movie, but does not work as a practical example of "looped immortality" (for want of a better term) is that Phil Connors learns from, and is changed by, the multiple iterations of the looped day. As such, the movie bears no resemblance to your scheme of multiple iterations of the "same" "soul" in unconnected experiences joined together by nothing more than the undefined and undefinable "sameness" you invoke to comfort yourself facing oblivion.

Admittedly, watching even Murray and McDowell go through infinite unchanging iterations of the same day would have made a terrible movie; OTH, as it stands, the sequential development of Connors' character makes it a terrible example of the kind of immortality you appear to be selling.

I wonder that you appear to have glossed over a friendly suggestion I made a bit earlier. As much trouble as you are having trying to stack the semantic deck in order to make sure that what you want to call immortality is the only logical conclusion (foundering, as you have seen, on the problems of assuming the consequent, special pleading, circular reasoning, careless definitions, and your continued struggles with ~A, to name but a few), why not consider working the problem from the other end?

I suggest that, instead of trying to define your claim into existence, you present all of the evidence you have for the existence of your claim. The problem with the apophatic approach is that you end up claiming that some postulate or another is "true" precisely because there is no evidence. Consider supporting your assertions that the "soul" exists, and is "immortal", with evidence: practical, empirical, physical evidence. When you produce such evidence, it can be judged on its merits. Until you produce such evidence, you have, at best, produced or described a gedankenexperiment, which will have to be supported by evidence in order to be accepted.

Why not start with the evidence first?
 
Yes, I read the linked section.
I still don't understand what Jesus has to do with immortality. :(


Pakeha,
- Both are considered "magical."


The scare quotes are a dead giveaway that you don't even understand what that means yourself.



- In that section of my website, I try to explain why we should believe in Magic.


And you're still expecting to be taken seriously here, are you?



Doing so, would support a belief in immortality as much as it would support a belief in Jesus.


In other words, the whole reason that you are unable to essentially prove immortality is that the people to whom you're trying to essentially prove it don't believe in magic.

Do you have any idea at all how absurd that is?
 
Pakeha,
- Both are considered "magical."
- In that section of my website, I try to explain why we should believe in Magic. Doing so, would support a belief in immortality as much as it would support a belief in Jesus.

Good morning, Mr. Savage!

At the risk of being accused of being contrary, perhaps you, personally, consider both "Jesus" and "immortality" "magical". Might you provide a source of anyone else using that term to describe either of those things?

Are you, perhaps, confusing "magic" with "miracles"?

Are you, instead, being determinedly anti-reality?

I have to say, it still seems asif you are workig yourself up to claiming that we should "believe" in "immortality" precisely because there is no evidence.
 
I see no difference between living my life once and living it over and over without any memories of the previous times.
 
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