Measles again...

[SRW]

I heard someone call whooping cough, A bad cough that last 10 days and then is mild after for a couple of months. They seemed to find that acceptable, and better than subjecting kids to a vaccination . As someone who has had whooping cough, I felt like reaching in and ripping her lungs out slowly over a 10 day period...

 

[edd]

I'm well informed of the ill informed but thanks for the link SRW.

In the UK for context the antivaccine movement is very focussed on MMR, and blames it all (from what I can tell) on the measles component, whereas the US AV movement is all about mercury and thimerosal.

Polio vaccines for example never come up as an issue. It's almost entirely focussed on the MMR jab in particular - it all stems from Wakefield and that man has an awful lot to answer for.

 

[MattusMaximus]

I would like to see Wakefield locked in irons and dragged into the public square for stoning based upon what he's done. What a scumbag

 

[Chris Haynes]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I know it is of no use to argue with the forum's resident anti-vax medicine hater, but at least there is documentation:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15106092

and
http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/downloads/appendices/appdx-full-g.pdf

I took some of the data from Appendix G and made a list, the case fatality rate in the 1950s for measles was close to 1 in 1000 (I use this in blog posts so the underscores save me from a bunch of nbsp):
Year_Cases_Deaths__Year___Cases____Deaths
2000____86___ 1____1950__319124____468
2001___116___ 1____1951__530118____683
2002____44___ 0____1952__683077____618
2003____56___ 1____1953__449146____462
2004____37___ NA___1954__682720____518
2005____66___ NA___1955__555156____345
2006____55___ NA___1956__611936____530
Total__460___3 or more__3831277___3624

 

[casebro]

I guess that is due to better care of those who get sick. And is probably the reason for a slow decline over the intervening 45 years, missing in your chart? Rather than a sudden decline just after vaccine came into use?

And even in the fifties, chance of death was about 1:1000 of those who got the disease.

Personally, I wouldn't walk across the street to lower my chances of anydamnthing that's chances are only 1:1,000. Not to mention the risk of walking across the street. Car accidents kill 1:100.

ETA: So the "case fatality rate" went from 1:1,000 to 1:100? TEN TIMES WORSE?

 

[Dancing David]

There are other complications to measles.

How many children each year would get infected and need hospitalization? (A cost factors)
How many adults would also get an infection? (Sometimes happens)
How many people would suffer from prenatal exposure?


Measles
http://www.medinfo.co.uk/conditions/measles.html
Pneumonia / bronchitis 1/25
Fits (convulsions) 1/200
Meningitis / encephalitis 1/1000
(Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis) 1/8000 (if under agae 2)

(They do not give rates for the 'occasional eye problems')


Rubella

http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/rubella/DS00332/DSECTION=complications

Up to 85 percent of infants born to mothers who had rubella during the first 11 weeks of pregnancy develop congenital rubella syndrome. This can cause one or more problems, including growth retardation, cataracts, deafness, congenital heart defects and defects in other organs.

Mumps
http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/mumps/ds00125/dsection=complications

Orchitis.
Pancreatitis
Encephalitis
Meningitis
Inflammation of the ovaries
Hearing loss
Miscarriage


Casebro:

Personally, I wouldn't walk across the street to lower my chances of anydamnthing that's chances are only 1:1,000.

I hope you reconsider that!
What are your daily cahnaces for that event? If it is daily then in 2.74 the odds will get very high that you will have the event occur.
Then this empidemiology say in the US you have 1,000,000 likely to suffer the event, that means 1,000 are likely.

 

[shuttlt]

Of course there's the problem of vaccination pushing up the average age that people catch the illness and altering it's severity to be considered.

 

[LarianLeQuella]

http://factsnotfantasy.com

 

[Deetee]

[blog pimp alert]
I've recently done a guest piece on the Lay Scientist blog about the measles outbreak in Wales and the scurrilous opportunistic purveyors of single measles vaccine who are flocking into the region to flog their wares.

 

[Chris Haynes]

[blog pimp alert]
I've recently done a guest piece on the Lay Scientist blog about the measles outbreak in Wales and the scurrilous opportunistic purveyors of single measles vaccine who are flocking into the region to flog their wares.

Note that you now have a special tag on that blog, meaning it is your own place on the internets.

Congratulations!

Though you have my deepest sympathy in that a now recently suspended doctor who is a loon is infesting the comments (more here: http://jabsloonies.blogspot.com/2009/05/cybertiger-vanishes.html )

 

[Jaggy Bunnet]

In the UK for context the antivaccine movement is very focussed on MMR, and blames it all (from what I can tell) on the measles component, whereas the US AV movement is all about mercury and thimerosal.

Polio vaccines for example never come up as an issue. It's almost entirely focussed on the MMR jab in particular - it all stems from Wakefield and that man has an awful lot to answer for.

Wakefield was undoubtedly responsible for a fall in take up. But what I don't understand is why the take up rate in England and Wales is so much worse than in Scotland (and I think NI as well). Much of the media is the same, but there seems to be a consistent (and widening) difference of more than 5%.

Maybe someone should be looking at what is being done differently to get better results and replicating it?

http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/briefings/snsg-02581.pdf

 

[korenyx]

I heard someone call whooping cough, A bad cough that last 10 days and then is mild after for a couple of months. They seemed to find that acceptable, and better than subjecting kids to a vaccination . As someone who has had whooping cough, I felt like reaching in and ripping her lungs out slowly over a 10 day period...

Can I help? I had it twice last winter and I'm getting ready to get the booster so I don't get it again.

 

[Estellea]

I guess that is due to better care of those who get sick. And is probably the reason for a slow decline over the intervening 45 years, missing in your chart? Rather than a sudden decline just after vaccine came into use?

There was a sudden decline after the measles jab introduction in 1963, or rather U.S. campaign for measles reduction, in 1966 (I can't post links yet so replaced t's with x's): hxxp://aje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/102/4/341.pdf?ijkey=68837a2d956207169144ff01f08c3da9b9136d45 Figure 1. While mortality had had a slow decline due to the introduction of antibiotics to treat secondary illness, it too shows a sudden drop as well.

And even in the fifties, chance of death was about 1:1000 of those who got the disease.

Personally, I wouldn't walk across the street to lower my chances of anydamnthing that's chances are only 1:1,000. Not to mention the risk of walking across the street. Car accidents kill 1:100.

ETA: So the "case fatality rate" went from 1:1,000 to 1:100? TEN TIMES WORSE?

The mortality rate from the 1989-1991 U.S. outbreak ended up being more than 2:1000 and death isn't the only significant endpoint as many children survived with permanent injury from measles encephalopathy and pneumonitis.

 

[Chris Haynes]

I guess that is due to better care of those who get sick. And is probably the reason for a slow decline over the intervening 45 years, missing in your chart? Rather than a sudden decline just after vaccine came into use?

That was hand typed because the file is a image pdf, so no copy and paste. I included the link to the file so that you could look at it yourself. I do have a slightly different version, which I will include at the end of this message. Edit to add: It was NOT a slow decline, it was a sudden one after 1963, and more decreases with vaccine programs (there is an issue getting everyone vaccinated).

ETA: So the "case fatality rate" went from 1:1,000 to 1:100? TEN TIMES WORSE?

Um, you need to look at the figures a bit more. In 1987 to 1991 most of the cases were in California, and were more often the poor, Pediatric hospital admissions for measles. Lessons from the 1990 epidemic. It is one reason for a push by county public health departments to buy and distribute vaccines to all, especially low income. I know that my state started a program of mailing reminders to anyone with a child born after 1992 (like my now 15 year old daughter).

Anyway, here is my other chart, and yes, it still is missing some years --- but you are welcome to go and read http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/downloads/appendices/appdx-full-g.pdf yourself:
Disease: Measles in the USA
Year__Cases___Deaths
1961__423,919_434
1962__481,530_408
1963__385,156_364
(^^ first vaccine licensed)
1964__458,083_421
1965__261,905_276
1966__204,136_261
1967___62,705__81
1968___22,231__24
1969___25,826__41
1970___47,351__89
1971___75,290__90
(^^^ MMR licensed)
1972___32,275__24
1973___26,690__23
1974___22,690__20
1975___24,374__20
1976___41,126__12
1977___57,245__15
1978___26,871__11
(^^^ Measles Elimination Program started)
1979___13,597___6
1980___13,506__11
1981____2,124___2

 

[Deetee]

Originally Posted by Cuddles
<snip>

The case mortality rate for measles in the US is 3/1,000.

<snip>

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

US figures have been cited by HCN.
Since 1982: 156 deaths, 82877 cases (1 in 531)
I am sure these tell only part of the story. There may be undereporting of measles (how much?) Fatalities may be higher when the population is mostly vaccinated and relatively more cases are therefore occuring in under 1s and in adults.
But its still an impressive death toll, considering modern therapeutic interventions like ITU care etc.