McCain the Big Republican Winner In Iowa

[Brainster]

At least according to the folks InTrade.

I took a snapshot of the prices for Republican nominee contract early this morning:



And about an hour ago:



Looking at the bid prices, the candidates showed the following movements today:

McCain +7.6
Guiliani +3.0
Romney -8.4
Huckabee +5.1
Paul -2.1

Note particularly that this morning McCain was already leading the Republican field at InTrade; this movement is on top of that.

For those wondering why a fourth place finish (currently) would vault McCain forward, it's because Mitt Romney finished so poorly in Iowa. Romney was already losing to McCain in New Hampshire, the state next to his, where he maintains a vacation home. If Romney can't win there, you have to question his ability to compete. And McCain and Romney are competing to be the conservative alternative to Rudy Giuliani, so Romney's loss is McCain's gain.

 

[Puppycow]

I agree with this analysis. I think that Huckabee has now had his moment in the sun, but that eventually support will coalesce around some alternative to Huckabee. If not Romney, maybe McCain. Or Giuliani, but right now McCain seems to have more momentum considering his good prospects for possibly winning New Hampshire.