Massive mud slide in WA State

[Skeptic Ginger]

I don't see a thread, maybe because it's just another tragedy with >100 dead. But there are a couple issues worth discussing.

One, a positive issue, the Snoqualmie Tribe made a $270K donation today, distributed to the rescue agencies including the cadaver dogs and the Red Cross. I think it's incredible given the tribes used to be the most poverty stricken populations in the state. Now they run casinos and I say more power to them.

The second issue is the news media's trying to create a scandal, clear cutting, a known hazard kept secret, it doesn't matter. The news media sells scandal, not truth. I don't know the truth. There are more areas with similar risks around here. Not many people are asking that question, which other hills are in danger of massive collapse like this one?

A mudslide, not a big deal usually, maybe a house or two is taken out. This one was a big deal: 20-30 permanent houses, 20-30 more structures people use as vacation dwellings, more than 100 people killed. That's more than the number killed on Mt St Helens with the big eruption. It's sad.

 

[stanfr]

An incredible tragedy--agreed. Im familiar with the area--used to drive that section frequently.

Not a big fan of casinos so I won't comment on that.

Assuming the 90 unncaounted for are in the rubble, it would be 100+ killed. I'm not going to assume that quite yet, as there have been countless big disasters where those numbers change dramatically over time. But, yeah, if the total number of deceased were made public and certain earlier in the event, it would have been a much bigger story instead of playing after flight 370 etc.

I think it's fair to raise those questions. This is not just some random area with 'similar risks'. The Army Corps report specifically targeted it as being on of the two highest risk areas. It had a lengthy history of slides including several in the last decade, on which took out some structures. I don't know about the logging issue specifically for this site (there are allegations that a 2004 logging approval overstepped its bounds) but having lived out there I can personally attest to the fact that logging practices are attrocious, most definitely result in increased erosion, flooding, slides etc. Yep, I know of many areas in my home state that are certainly prone to natural disasters such as floods, slides, fires--but the history here is pretty darned extensive, and it sure sounds to me like officials are trying to cover their butts. Unfortunately, localities want development and so disregard the known risks. It's a terrible shame, and people likely died as a result.
Hopefully one positive result will indeed be that people will ask that question--what other areas are at risk?

 

[stanfr]

Here's a good summary:

Here

 

[Silly Green Monkey]

How similar is the Italian farmhouse built between the cliff face and the final resting point of the boulder that broke from it and rolled?

 

[Iamme]

This is a terrible tradgedy and wouldnt want to wish anything like this on anyone. What an awful way to die. Perhaps drowning in mud. I`ve almost drowned and know the feeling.
Some people are plain unlucky. There have been cases of people killed in bed, by a car. By a boulder that tumbled down a hillside. Recently i heard a guy was killed in bed when a cow came thru his roof!

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

Western WA is full of unincorporated rural areas where a developer puts in a road and sells lots. People build in flood plains, they build atop mud cliffs, they build wherever land is cheapest and zoning is non-existent. Then they slop on the code... studs and joists too far apart, footings that are basically no more than concrete blocks resting on dirt, etc. I have lived in such areas for the past 25 years and I have seen it all. Nobody stops them because they are mostly owner-builders with no bank financing. So... this will happen from time to time. The scandal is that people are allowed to make their own choices without excessive gov't regulation, and many do not make good ones.

 

[jj]

Interesting that this development was actually approved.

Somehow the fact that the county official was so surprised, or says so, when the USGS and state geology report is more of the "gonna happen" variety.

 

[Aepervius]

Interesting that this development was actually approved.

Somehow the fact that the county official was so surprised, or says so, when the USGS and state geology report is more of the "gonna happen" variety.

Probably not 100% comparable, but we have had a few disaster in France where the same hapenned. The isual MO was 1) geologist or engineer says this place will likely collapse or get a massive flood every 30-50 years in average 2) sleezy constructor either downplay the report or even ignore them 3) house are built and sold 4) a flood happen 5) people cry for natural-catastrophe money while the rest of us moan that the area is *known* to flood every half a century 6) geologist engineer confirm that and prop up 20 to 40 year old report they had done , often redo a more recent report confirming the finding 7) rince and repeat a few decades later.

That's particularly egregerious in some place, where it floods even more often (near my parents home tehre is a plain which is flooded every 6 to 10 years and still people were fighting to be allowed to build houses there).

By now I have become so misanthropic as to *expect* such story to happen.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

An incredible tragedy--agreed. Im familiar with the area--used to drive that section frequently.

Not a big fan of casinos so I won't comment on that.

Assuming the 90 unncaounted for are in the rubble, it would be 100+ killed. I'm not going to assume that quite yet, as there have been countless big disasters where those numbers change dramatically over time....

The original number was much higher. This 90 are people that lived in the houses there, were known to be visiting, and a few that were driving the highway and have not been heard from since. There may be a handful who are away, or haven't checked in, but it's more likely the list is pretty close. There are 17 identified dead not included in the 90 and a number of bodies that were found but not yet dug out which I believe are included in the 90. It's very likely not everyone will be found. The amount of mud is massive and deep in parts.

 

[Ranb]

Developing on land prone to slides, lahars, flooding and wild fires is nothing new in Washington State or elsewhere. I live near the top of a hill in WA. I have to detour around the occasional river overflowing the banks, but I'm not going to worry about my house until we get enough rain to make the gently sloped hill I'm on actually give way.

Ranb

 

[stanfr]

The original number was much higher. This 90 are people that lived in the houses there, were known to be visiting, and a few that were driving the highway and have not been heard from since. There may be a handful who are away, or haven't checked in, but it's more likely the list is pretty close. There are 17 identified dead not included in the 90 and a number of bodies that were found but not yet dug out which I believe are included in the 90. It's very likely not everyone will be found. The amount of mud is massive and deep in parts.

Well, fortunately the number of missing has just dropped to 30, so with 25 dead thankfully the high number was too high (as it usually is in these sort of disasters)

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Well, fortunately the number of missing has just dropped to 30, so with 25 dead thankfully the high number was too high (as it usually is in these sort of disasters)

Yes, I heard that. I would have posted it had you not.

I await the explanation for the 60 names that were stated as confirmed to have been in the area and had not been heard from.

But I am glad to see the number now at 47 (30 + 17 identified dead).


On a separate note, I have renewed interest after seeing the pre-slide image showing the area that slid had slid before. The looks of it suggests it should have been less risk of sliding not at a greater risk. It looks like it had already re-equilibrated a stable structure.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I wonder if any of them saw their reflections in those snow covered hills? That might have been a warning.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Here is a useful image of the old slide and the new slide.

It makes more sense now seeing that more of the hillside slid rather than the 2006 slide moving further down the slope.

 

[ABC10]

Weather Channel had a one hour mudslide show on last night. In 1999, one occurred in Venezuala where 30,000 people died. They also showed the landslide of Mt. Helene prior to eruption. These things are powerful. So sad.