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Massive asteroid impact in 2036?

Thunder said:
a 200-yard wide asteroid impact will be like a sizable nuclear detonation.

and if it hits the ocean, it would create a massive tsunami that could drown/kill millions across the globe.
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According to this site, the effect would be equivalent to a 6.4 earthquake.

Given how often those happen without drowning everyone on earth,.... I have to go with "big, fat, hairy, deal." Sure, I'd not like to be right under it, but it won't be any worse than the sort of devastation I'm used to seeing on the news every time a hurricane rolls through the Caribbean.
 
Time to watch "When Worlds Collide", "Deep Impact" and "Armageddon" again.
Actually, the Niven/Pournelle novel "LUcifer's Hammer" is the best work of fiction I have seen about what would happen if an asteroid/comet/large meteor hit the earth.
Let's put it this way: Something the size of Manhatten Island would probably be an ELLE...extinction level event.let alone the size of Texas.
 
Thunder said:
a 200-yard wide asteroid impact will be like a sizable nuclear detonation.

and if it hits the ocean, it would create a massive tsunami that could drown/kill millions across the globe.
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How do you know?
 
Mark6 said:
"1-in-250,000 chance" means "it won't happen".
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Then if "1-in-1 chance" means "it will happen" and "1-in-2 chance" means "it might happen", at what point does "might" turn into "won't"?
 
dudalb said:
Time to watch "When Worlds Collide", "Deep Impact" and "Armageddon" again.
Actually, the Niven/Pournelle novel "LUcifer's Hammer" is the best work of fiction I have seen about what would happen if an asteroid/comet/large meteor hit the earth.
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Almost all great choices, save for one. (Seriously - at least go for Meteor. It might not be as exciting, but it lacks the, oh, I dunno, "je ne sais suck" of Armageddon.)
 
I think its fair to say that a 20 foot high tsunami running through the Indian Ocean would drown millions.
 
Cleon said:
Almost all great choices, save for one. (Seriously - at least go for Meteor. It might not be as exciting, but it lacks the, oh, I dunno, "je ne sais suck" of Armageddon.)
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I was just reeling off the major films about somehting colliding with the earth. IMHO Deep Impact was a much better film then Armageddon.
"Meteor" is a real hoot, though.
 
Asm said:
Then if "1-in-1 chance" means "it will happen" and "1-in-2 chance" means "it might happen", at what point does "might" turn into "won't"?
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As a matter of practicality, I would say "1 in 50,000". I dare you find a single event, ever, which actually occurred at these odds. And I mean event whose total probability of occurrence was 1 in 50,000 -- not "1 in 50,000 per year", or "1 in 50,000 per person", or 1 in 50,000 per whatever.
 
drkitten said:
According to this site, the effect would be equivalent to a 6.4 earthquake.

Given how often those happen without drowning everyone on earth,.... I have to go with "big, fat, hairy, deal." Sure, I'd not like to be right under it, but it won't be any worse than the sort of devastation I'm used to seeing on the news every time a hurricane rolls through the Caribbean.
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Wiki suggests something a bit worse.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#Possible_impact_effects

Not the end of the world but certainly no picnic either.
 
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Mark6 said:
As a matter of practicality, I would say "1 in 50,000". I dare you find a single event, ever, which actually occurred at these odds. And I mean event whose total probability of occurrence was 1 in 50,000 -- not "1 in 50,000 per year", or "1 in 50,000 per person", or 1 in 50,000 per whatever.
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So in other words, at "1 in 49,999" it might happen? ;)

It just bugs me how I too can feel completely confident that some things just won't happen. I know common sense helps, but are there some "statistically correct" numbers?
 
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Asm said:
Then if "1-in-1 chance" means "it will happen" and "1-in-2 chance" means "it might happen", at what point does "might" turn into "won't"?
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At the point where the chance of it happening drops below the chance that I misunderstood the poster telling me that it might happen.
 
Mark6 said:
And before you say "chances of winning lottery are worse than that" -- no they are not, given how many people buy tickets. In fact, it is a near-certainty that SOMEONE wins.
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Also let's not forget about the multitude of planets out there, all participating in our asteroid impact lottery. In fact, it is a near-certainty that SOMEONE wins. :)
 
GreyArea said:
Try this instead of RIANovosti:

Phil Plait: Repeat after me: Apophis is not a danger!
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Plait:
Let me be very, very clear: the odds of this happening are incredibly low, something like one in a 135,000. I fret about asteroid impacts, as you might imagine, but this one doesn’t worry me at all. The odds are so low I worry more about Snooki getting her own three-movie contract.
 
patchbunny said:
Ok, question time for all the atronomers on the forums.

Why can't we predict whether or not it will hit us? If it swings past every seven years, doesn't that provide more than enough data for us to determine its orbit?
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That's a very good question and deserves an answer.

I think the reason is that a close encounter between two bodies alters their orbits, and where you have a relatively small object and a large one, the orbit of the smaller one can be altered a lot. So after one close approach, the small body may be deflected to an orbit that is more likely to hit the Earth, or alternatively an orbit less likely to hit the Earth. It may be a matter of a few km as to which option actually occurs.
 
The moon has thousands and thousands of craters. Some of them gigantic.

I wonder...why is that?
 
Thunder said:
The moon has thousands and thousands of craters. Some of them gigantic.

I wonder...why is that?
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Because the moon has been around for billions of years and because the early solar system was a particularly dangerous place.

What's that have to do with Apophis?
 
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