Let's bet on who will be president...

[Malachi151]

I bet (nothing cause this is the internet) that Dean will be president in 2004. Agree or not?

I made the polll Bush or not Bush to make it simple. Essentially though I think that Dean will be the nominee, but even if he is not, I bet that whoever runs against him will win. The only real possibilities at this point IMO are Dean and Kerry.

 

[CapelDodger]

The crappy bookmakers round here don't make a book on the US election. Not as interesting as who gets killed-off in a soap-opera, I suppose.

I think Bush is at the start of a long slow car-crash. He and his team aren't up to it. Thinking of which, does Rumsfeld still get allowed out these days?

 

[fishbob]

I am betting on Bush. I am hoping for almost anybody else.

I just can not picture voting for someone that actually wins. I have a very long record of voting for the candidate that came in 2nd or 3rd or last.

Besides, I could not gripe about how stupid other voters are if the guy I vote for actually wins.

 

[Doubt]

Your poll is a binary choice. Too early to make on that unless one is both an optimist and favors one side over the other.

If you wish to bet on Dean specifically, then I would say that it is a bad bet for the moment. To many competitors among the Democrats to start with. If all potential candidates and Bush were perceived as being the same, the odds of his winning the nomination would be low to start with. If he won the nomination he would have a even shot at winning the office. Just plan bad odds there. If you have seven Democrats plus Bush, then the odds would only be about 1 in 14. (Anyone can feel free to post better math if I have that wrong. Not sure how many Dems are running right now anyway.)

At this time, most of the public has no clue about which Democrats are even running yet. Dean got some nice free publicity on the Newsweek cover, but we are still months away from primary season. For now, the public pretty much does see the Democrats as all being the same.

Wait until after the California recall is over so the national press corps will start paying attention to the 2004 election.

 

[Aoidoi]

I'm hoping for some reasonable Democrat to show up who can scoop up the moderates that Bush has alienated and win... but I'm betting the Democrats self-destruct again and Bush wins more or less by default.

"I hold opinions, I don't bet them" - From somewhere or other that I've forgotten.

 

[Tricky]

Bush will be president in 2004. I don't like it any better than you do, but barring tragic events, that's the way it will be.

Perhaps a new president will be sworn in in 2005...

 

[jj]

Bush. I think the fix is already in.

 

[Suddenly]

Given the right odds I'd bet on virtually anyone to win.

I wouldn't take an even money bet that "W" will lose in 04, not so much because I think it would be unprofitable but rather that I think I could get a better price. If I got 2-1 or better I'd feel comfortable making a wager, as I'd make "W" about a 6-5 favorite (slightly better than even money) to win based on present information.

I imagine I could find someone who thinks Bush is a lock and get 3-1 or maybe 10-1 from them. Then I'd make some small bets, not because I'm sure Bush will lose, only that he's at best a small favorite at present.

From a gambling perspective betting Dean to win at even money would be a pretty stupid bet, because I'm sure someone will give better odds than that. The only person I would consider betting at even money to win would be Bush, and I'd pass on that bet because when I bet on silly things like elections I'm looking for a bigger overlay than even money for a 6-5 favorite.

 

[Nyarlathotep]

If I were a betting man, my money would be on bush. I don't like Bush, I think he is a nitwit, but the choice between him and ANY of the Democrats is like choosing whether I'd like to have a painful boil on my butt or an itchy rash all over my body. None of the choices are pleasing to me. I think a lot of people feel the same way and, all other things being equal, people tend to prefer the devil they know to the one that they don't. Thus Bush.

Personally, I am voting Libertarian this year. I know the libertarian won't win and I don't agree 100% witht he Libertarian agenda, but I find their agenda much more palatable than that of either major party and I can walk away from the booth knowing, at least, that I voted my conscience.

 

[CapelDodger]

From Doubt:

If you wish to bet on Dean specifically, then I would say that it is a bad bet for the moment. To many competitors among the Democrats to start with. If all potential candidates and Bush were perceived as being the same, the odds of his winning the nomination would be low to start with. If he won the nomination he would have a even shot at winning the office. Just plan bad odds there. If you have seven Democrats plus Bush, then the odds would only be about 1 in 14. (Anyone can feel free to post better math if I have that wrong. Not sure how many Dems are running right now anyway.)

That's a little like saying every horse in a race has the same chance. Nothing, of course, is certain but you can make some judgements about the horses from past performance, handicap, jockey and number of legs (particularly important that last).

My thinking is that the damage done to Bush - who is definitely in it - in the next 14 months by all sorts of subjects will be enough to see him defeated, whoever runs. And if Dean runs he might just win it - as opposed to Bush losing it.

(When I say Bush is definitely in it I mean the race, as opposed to the other stuff he's in.)

 

[CapelDodger]

From Suddenly:

From a gambling perspective betting Dean to win at even money would be a pretty stupid bet, because I'm sure someone will give better odds than that. The only person I would consider betting at even money to win would be Bush, and I'd pass on that bet because when I bet on silly things like elections I'm looking for a bigger overlay than even money for a 6-5 favorite.

I'd take 9-4 minimum on Bush losing. But I'm not being offered anything.

 

[Cleopatra]

For what an outsider's opinion worths, I think that Bush will make it again.

It seems that he has succesfully played the card of manipulating the general public betting on its worse fears; terrorism and safety.

The fact that he has managed to persuade the majority about the necessity of a War in Iraq says a lot about him and of course about the American general public...

 

[Earthborn]

What makes you people think there even will be a 2004 presidential election? Do you all think that Bush couldn't get the US in enough of a mess to allow him to say: "In this time of crisis, we must put aside our petty differences and stay united... To hold elections at this moment will appear to the enemy that we are weak and quarrelsome..." and postpone the elections for an indefinite time?

Wouldn't be the first time something like that happened...

 

[RandFan]

In my gut I believe that Bush will lose just like his father lost. He is not a very strong politician and the economy just hasn't rebounded. The time is nearly up before "it's the economy" stupid will decide his fate.

 

[Nyarlathotep]

What makes you people think there even will be a 2004 presidential election? Do you all think that Bush couldn't get the US in enough of a mess to allow him to say: "In this time of crisis, we must put aside our petty differences and stay united... To hold elections at this moment will appear to the enemy that we are weak and quarrelsome..." and postpone the elections for an indefinite time?

Wouldn't be the first time something like that happened...

It WOULD however, be the first time that happened in the US.

Though generally I think that most of my fellow americans are apathetic about the actions of their leaders, I think something like cancelling the election would lead to rioting in the streets. I'd be the first to join in, in that case, too.

 

[CapelDodger]

From Earthbord:

What makes you people think there even will be a 2004 presidential election?

Damned good point: I want an "all-bets-off" clause to cover this eventuality.

 

[Cleopatra]

Come- on this is a cheap European argument CD and Earthborn, I have heard it before.

What makes me believe that there will be an election is the Constitution that Americans have as a Holly Gospel.

 

[CapelDodger]

From Nyarlathotep?:

It WOULD however, be the first time that happened in the US. ?

Just asking, but how many times has the Supreme Court chosen the president? (I really don't know.)

I sometimes get the feeling that the whole of human history has been leading to this point.

Though generally I think that most of my fellow americans are apathetic about the actions of their leaders, I think something like cancelling the election would lead to rioting in the streets

Want to bet? Half of these people don't even vote. When was the last time there was a non-race riot in the US?

Damn, I just trashed my first point with my second.

(Edited to include the correct quote)

 

[CapelDodger]

Hi Cleopatra

Have you been following this whole Bible thing in the US? The latest arguing line is that the Constitution should be interpreted in the light of what came before , meaning the Declaration of Independence (which, unlike the Constitution, has the g-word in it) and the Bible, particularly the Jewish bit, funnily enough. The US Constitution is under threat. Its standing is being deliberately unermined by well-funded fanatics who have close connections with the Bushies.

The greatest problem the government would potentially face if they tried this would be the military. Which way would they jump? I've often wondered what would happen in this country if there were a government coup and Queenie - who is Commander-in-Chief - ordered the military not to support it. However, the situation is unlikely to arise. If I were going to launch a coup I'd set off an "al-Qaeda" bomb that took out the entire Royal Family except Andrew, who's a complete numpty and will do what he's told. Declare a state of emergency, implicate opposition politicians and cancel elections. Shut down two newspapers and it's all done and dusted.

I was crossing my fingers when Blair was clearly going to win but Major? What a wimp. If Thatcher had still been there she'd have read my letter ...

 

[Solitaire]

It'd been nice to include in the pole some thrid parties
like Green, Libertarian, Natural Law. Still, Bush will win.