No it's proven:
http://www.cree.com/products/pdf/XLampXR-E_lumen_maintenance.pdf
I think you're confusing old LED's with the new ones.
That link is a test for individual elements, not the performance of consumer bulbs.
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/how-long-did-you-say-that-bulb-will-last/
I'm not talking about "cheating" with ceiling cans. Most of the LED bulbs specifically state they are for open use only. The ones that are for use in cans are limited to 60watt equivalent, whereas I currently have 100watt halogen in them. That's not 'cheating', that's less light. Furthermore, manufacturers actually recommend derating the can and putting
less than the rated value for the can (
for example). And I haven't even addressed the common complaint with the LED floods - that they don't flood, but act like spotlights.
Here's a 10 watt bulb, as recommened by the FAQ I linked to above for use in recessed cans. 340 lumens. That's about a 30 watt equiv. I'm not putting spotlight, 30 watt equiv bulbs in my ceiling, to replace my 100watt halogens, at over $50 a pop (I have 17 cans to fill in this room alone), and calling it a wash.
LED lights are exciting. They just aren't ready for average home use.
edit: for example, what does Philips say about bulb life? Just about nothing. They have test data for a few LEDs in an automotive application, soldered to a board here:
http://www.philipslumileds.com/support/documentation/reliability-data, which has no bearing on consumer light bulbs in average situations. For those, they talk about lumens maintainance (how long they take to dim due to age):
http://www.philipslumileds.com/technology/lumenmaintenance
Claims of 25,000 to 50,000 hours are a shell game - they (generic they, not Philips specifically) compare the 1000 hours of incandescents (which is a true MTTF #) to hours to dim to 70%. It's a meaningless comparison. I'll credit I have no data either, so maybe the MTTF for a consumer LED bulb is half a million hours! But, given the shell games being played, I strongly suspect that is not true. Suspicion is further aroused when I look at the terms of the warranty: you have to send back the bulb, the receipt,
and the frigging box. The harder you make it, the less you are really standing behind your product. Especially since these are supposed to last 10-20 years - at which time it should cost a few dimes for the company to replace. In comparison, I can take a 10 year old Patagonia goretex shell to any Patagonia store, without a receipt, with obvious abuse, and have it exchanged no questions asked. That's a company that believes that their product will last the time period they claim it will. (that's an apples/orange comparison, but why are they making it so hard to return?)