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Lambda-CDM theory - Woo or not?

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Well, there you are, claiming exactly what I said you claimed, that the shortfall in counting stars translates directly into a shortfall in estimating the baryonic mass,

That is because it does. We're only arguing over "how much", not the fact the numbers have to change.

and your complaint that "the industry has not budged a single percentage point". It is my explicit claim that "the industry" has not budged a single percentage point because there is no reason to do so. The arguments you bring to the discussion do not, in fact, represent any necessary change in the derived baryonic mass of galaxies & the universe. My argument above falsifies this claim of yours by demonstrating that the mass you think has been overlooked has in fact been included all the time.

Define "necessary" for me Tim. Is it "necessary" in your opinion to find solutions that favor baryonic matter, or not? If not, I will be the first to admit that your method "works" as described. I'm also the first one to point out that you can simply ADD STARS too and achieve "better" results in terms of eliminating the need for mythical forms of matter.

I've yet to hear you even admit that you made a SUBJECTIVE choice. The fact you feel it's a "better" choice for some reason doesn't make it any less subjective of a solution to the brightness issue.
 
That is because it does. We're only arguing over "how much", not the fact the numbers have to change.

Sure, something changes. We change from the old statement:

"The baryon density is 4.56% +/- 0.16%, including about 0.5% which has formed stars"

to the updated statement:

"The baryon density is 4.56% +/- 0.16%, including about 0.55% which has formed stars"

Or something like that. Isn't that exciting?

Star counting has no impact whatsoever on the 4.56 number, which is measured precisely from the CMB/BAO/BBN observables, which probe the properties of the primordial gas before any stars had formed.
 
Thompson's Position on Dark Matter

Tim's approach seems to be exactly the opposite from my perspective. The "conservatism" is aimed at "protecting the status quo" rather than filling in the gaps of the "dark" parts of his current theory and understanding. It's almost as through he INSISTS that some sort of exotic matter MUST exist. Maybe, and maybe not. We won't know however if we never actually attempt to ELIMINATE the need for exotic types of matter and we constantly favor a "dark matter=exotic matter" approach.
I've seen a lot of people fiercely defending dark matter in the form of particles likes WIMPs, so I empathize with your sentiment. But I haven't read much of the thread, so I don't know Tim's stance.


Here is my official stance.

It is a fact that the motion of matter in the universe is observed to be significantly inconsistent with the standard physical assumptions. Therefore, the standard physical assumptions need to be either modified, or simply replaced with new assumptions. There are in essence only two real candidates for new or modified assumptions: (1) There is more matter in the universe than we see, providing an unseen source for more gravity than we would have expected, or (2) The standard laws of gravity need to be modified to conform with observation. Of course, both (1) & (2) could be simultaneously true. The first assumption comes in two parts: (1a) There is more ordinary (i.e., baryonic) matter than we see, and (1b) There is additional, as yet undetected nonbaryonic matter. And, of course, Both (1a) & (1b) could be simultaneously true.

In my opinion, and in the consensus opinion of the main stream science community, both (1a) & (1b) are true. It is known that there is more baryonic matter in the universe than previously thought, although Mozina has thus far done a poor job of finding the correct sources to justify this already mainstream conclusion. However, it is also known that all of this previously undetected baryonic dark matter combined falls far short of the mark required to avoid the necessity of more exotic nonbaryonic dark matter (so long as we simultaneously assume that (2) is incorrect and that the law of gravity does not need to be modified). Hence, the bulk of mainstream research is concentrated on figuring out ways to directly or indirectly detect the nonbaryonic dark matter which has thus far remained undetected. However, it should also be noted that there is significant research, exemplified by numerous journal papers, devoted to (2) above, attempting to eliminate the need for any dark matter at all by modifying the laws of gravity. As far as I know, being outside my own area of expertise, these attempts have failed to find a universal solution; e.g., one form of modified gravity might work to solve "this problem" but not "that problem", and so forth, while the assumption of both baryonic, but predominately nonbaryonic dark matter produces universal solutions that simultaneously solve all of the problems (at least in principle), limited of course by observational uncertainty.

If Mozina thinks I am trying to "protect the status quo", or that I "insist" that some form of exotic matter must exist, then he is quite wrong, for neither of these positions he suggests are of any interest to me at all. I do insist that the current state of observation strongly suggests the presence of nonbaryonic dark matter, and I do insist that this is in fact the simplest, most empirical, best scientific solution to the problem of conforming theory with observation, given the current state of knowledge.

I am definitely not arguing here that the status quo must be protected from new ideas. I am simply arguing that Mozina has yet to come up with anything particularly reasonable to say about anything relating to the physical sciences in general, or the more specific sciences of cosmology & astrophysics.
 
Here is my official stance.

It is a fact that the motion of matter in the universe is observed to be significantly inconsistent with the standard physical assumptions.

IMO it is simply your ASSUMPTIONS that are wrong Tim. Just as you and I can subjectively chose to increase the NUMBER of point sources or increase the MASS of existing point sources, every 'solution' we might search for can be MAXIMIZED or MINIMIZED in favor of normal matter. The fact you're choosing one path over another simply demonstrates a "bias" in the final analysis, one that favors your existing belief system. No surprise there, but then it should also be no surprise that you're having trouble identifying that "missing mass" either.
 
Star counting has no impact whatsoever on the 4.56 number, which is measured precisely from the CMB/BAO/BBN observables, which probe the properties of the primordial gas before any stars had formed.

Oh, you were there to measure those properties eh? :) You don't figure that the 4.56 number is based on ASSUMING that your other variables and claims were true?
 
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IMO it is simply your ASSUMPTIONS that are wrong Tim. Just as you and I can subjectively chose to increase the NUMBER of point sources or increase the MASS of existing point sources, every 'solution' we might search for can be MAXIMIZED or MINIMIZED in favor of normal matter. The fact you're choosing one path over another simply demonstrates a "bias" in the final analysis, one that favors your existing belief system. No surprise there, but then it should also be no surprise that you're having trouble identifying that "missing mass" either.

We know the maximum amount of normal matter. ben m just explained this! 2 posts prior to your post!
 
Oh, you were there to measure those properties eh? :)

We can see radiation from that time, Michael. Just as when you look at a distant star you are seeing it as it was some time in the past, when you look at microwave background radiation you are seeing the primordial plasma just when it de-ionized (long before the first stars formed).

Because we now have extremely (by astrophysical standard) precise maps of the CMB, we have extremely precise measures of the state of the universe at that time.
 
We can see radiation from that time, Michael. Just as when you look at a distant star you are seeing it as it was some time in the past, when you look at microwave background radiation you are seeing the primordial plasma just when it de-ionized (long before the first stars formed).

Because we now have extremely (by astrophysical standard) precise maps of the CMB, we have extremely precise measures of the state of the universe at that time.

I went back and added some important text to my response, specifically the fact that your "method" includes the physically impossible, like "expanding space" and stuff that never happens in the lab. *ONLY* if we go with all your other ASSUMPTIONS can you even justify that number in the first place, and we already have evidence that your assumptions were WRONG!
 
We can see radiation from that time, Michael. Just as when you look at a distant star you are seeing it as it was some time in the past, when you look at microwave background radiation you are seeing the primordial plasma just when it de-ionized (long before the first stars formed).

Because we now have extremely (by astrophysical standard) precise maps of the CMB, we have extremely precise measures of the state of the universe at that time.

Emphasis mine. For instance we have to assume that there was a time where some primordial plasma existed when suns did not exist. The whole method is "belief system dependent" in the first place. :)
 
Oh, you were there to measure those properties eh? :) You don't figure that the 4.56 number is based on ASSUMING that your other variables and claims were true?

Um, no. This is how hypothesis testing works. The hypothesis is extremely clearly stated, makes extremely clear predictions, and the predictions (on comparison with the data) pass well-known hypothesis testing criteria very cleanly.

Take any of my supposed "assumptions" and remove it. Heck, remove as many as you like, in any combination. Generate a prediction and compare it to the data. It will fail the well-known hypothesis testing criteria.

Remember when I asked you to show me any alternative hypothesis whatsoever that attempted this hypothesis test? Do you remember that you ponied up one example, whose "prediction" was based on a giant arithmetic error? I am not "assuming" that that model is wrong. I tested that model using science.

The offer still stands. Show me anything whatsoever other than LCDM(73/23/5), making any assumptions you like, and cite the paper showing that these assumptions pass the even one of the CMB/CMBpol/LSS/BAO/BBN/clusters/weak-lensing/strong-lensing/SNe hypothesis tests.

You couldn't do it a month ago, or a month before that, or a month before that. How can you accuse us of ignoring a viable alternative model that you yourself can't identify?
 
Emphasis mine. For instance we have to assume that there was a time where some primordial plasma existed when suns did not exist. The whole method is "belief system dependent" in the first place. :)

And arrrrrrround we go again!

  • Lather: MM insists that some random paper disagrees with LCDM. (in this case "you just found more stars")
  • Rinse: MM learns that the random paper does not disagree with LCDM.
  • Repeat: MM points out that nothing can agree with LCDM, because LCDM was Higgs fairy bunnies God magic energy to begin with.

Tickets, please! Regular riders of the MM Express Loop should consider the 10-ride discount pass.
 
Um, no. This is how hypothesis testing works. The hypothesis is extremely clearly stated, makes extremely clear predictions,

Ya, but when it fails one of those predictions you personally attempt to sweep the problem under the carpet and claim it doesn't matter! :) Notice a problem?

and the predictions (on comparison with the data) pass well-known hypothesis testing criteria very cleanly.

But no, it didn't. Those galaxies turn out to be TWICE AS BRIGHT as you "predicted", not in just one little sliver of the spectrum mind you, but over nearly the entire spectrum. As I have noted any and all "solutions" we come up with to explain that can be maximized or minimized in favor or ordinary matter.

Take any of my supposed "assumptions" and remove it.

Great, I take way your assumption that space expands. Now show me that you can arrive at the same number.
 
And arrrrrrround we go again!

  • Lather: MM insists that some random paper disagrees with LCDM. (in this case "you just found more stars")
  • Rinse: MM learns that the random paper does not disagree with LCDM.
  • Repeat: MM points out that nothing can agree with LCDM, because LCDM was Higgs fairy bunnies God magic energy to begin with.

Tickets, please! Regular riders of the MM Express Loop should consider the 10-ride discount pass.

I have two quibbles with your description of the Mozloop.

First, it's not some random press release - it's exactly the same one he used last time around the loop.

Second, shouldn't that be "Guth fairy bunnies God magic energy"?
 
Ya, but when it fails one of those predictions you personally attempt to sweep the problem under the carpet and claim it doesn't matter! :) Notice a problem?

What problem?

But no, it didn't. Those galaxies turn out to be TWICE AS BRIGHT as you "predicted"

Did you see "galaxy brightnesses" in my list of precision predictions? No. I don't claim that LCDM predicts galaxy brightnesses, nor the U235-U238 ratio, nor the age of the Moon, nor the ratio of disk to elliptical galaxies, nor the abundance of quasars. Not precisely, anyway.

Great, I take way your assumption that space expands. Now show me that you can arrive at the same number.

Thanks, that's what I'm talking about. I am happy to "take away the assumption that space expands" and see whether it agrees with the data. At first glance, it sounds like it's going to fail to match the Hubble curve, the CMB temperature, AND the CMB fluctuation spectrum. But the truth is in the numbers. Can you show me a paper that actually attempts to test a model without "the assumption that space expands"? Does it match the CMB/CMBpol/etc.? Let's see it.
 
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Oh, you were there to measure those properties eh? :) You don't figure that the 4.56 number is based on ASSUMING that your other variables and claims were true?
Given the ASSUMPTION that the known laws of physics work, we can use them to get much accurate values (than the rough estimate from star counting!) for the amount of baryonic matter in the universe using multiple techniques.

That is why these papers you are obsessed with have only minor impacts on dark matter. The amount of baryonic matter in the universe is constrained to be around 4.5%. If this is wrong then you will have to also say that for example
  • General relativity is wrong.
  • Large parts of nuclear physics is wrong.
 
Emphasis mine. For instance we have to assume that there was a time where some primordial plasma existed when suns did not exist.
No assumption - observations

The CMB iis an observation. It has to have been emitted by that 'primordial plasma'.

It is observed that stars did not always exist: Lyman-alpha forest
The amount of neutral hydrogen increases as you look further away (into the past). It is the radiation from stars that ionizes neutral hydrogen.

"Dark entity dead god Higgs fairy bunnies God magic energy" rant from MM coming in 3, 2, 1 ... :D
 
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