Tim Thompson
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Galaxies, Cosmology and Science by Press Release Fails Again
One of the topics introduced by Mozina in an attempt to discredit standard LCDM cosmology is the appearance of "mature" or "old looking" galaxies at high redshifts, when the universe was very young. The allegation is that the universe is so young that there has not been time for galaxies to form, thus falsifying LCDM cosmology. Of course, as usual, Mozina does not quantify this claim. He never specifies how long he thinks it should take for a galaxy to form, nor does he provide any non faith-based reason for believing that the real universe should be unable to form galaxies so quickly.
A fair question indeed, which Mozina has never answered. Naturally, one assumes he is very deficient in relevant knowledge by which he might be expected to know. In other words, he's making it all up.
I have already addressed both of these in detail here: Science by Press Release Failure. The first is now known to be a lower redshift galaxy mistaken for a high redshift galaxy, and the second a paper which reports that 2/3 of massive galaxies form after the universe is 3,000,000,000 years old. See my previous post for details & references to the appropriate research papers.
Let us begin to examine this one by comparing the language of the press release with the language found in the associated research paper.
However, it's not the size nor the age of the cluster that amazes the team of researchers led by Dr. Casey Papovich, an assistant professor in the Texas A&M Department of Physics and Astronomy and member of the George P. and Cynthia Woods Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy. Rather, it's the surprisingly modern appearance of CLG J02182-05102 that has them baffled -- a huge, red collection of galaxies typical of only present-day galaxies.
Spaceref.Com Press Release 14 May 2010
The photometric redshift probability distributions for the red galaxies are strongly peaked at z=1.62, coincident with the spectroscopically confirmed galaxies. The rest frame (U-B) color and scatter of galaxies on the red sequence are consistent with a mean luminosity weighted age of 1.2 +/- 0.1 Gyr, yielding a formation redshift, zf = 2.35 +/- 0.10, and corresponding to the last significant star formation period in these galaxies.
Abstract, A Spitzer Selected Galaxy Cluster at z = 1.62, Papovich, et al., 2010; Astrophysical Journal, in press.
Now, you read the press release and you think people are falling all over themselves in surprise at such a thing. And note the part where they say, " ... typical of only present-day galaxies.". Yet when we read the abstract of the research paper, things are quite a bit different. Not only is there no hint of surprise, but we see that the galaxies are seen at an age of 1,200,000,000 years. But the stellar disk of our Milky Way is about 9,000,000,000 years old, and globular cluster stars are nearly 13,000,000,000 years old. These galaxies do not in fact look like modern day galaxies because they are extremely young by our local standard; there are no galaxies that young anywhere near the Milky Way. The press release is certainly attention getting, but it's also just plain wrong.
Seen sitting at redshift 1.62, these galaxies are sitting in a universe that is 4,046,000,000 years old. And if they formed at redshift 2.35, they formed when the universe was 2,844,000,000 years old (the difference being roughly 1,200,000,000 years). Is there some non faith-based reason, by which we are supposed to be "surprised" that galaxies did not form until the universe was 2,844,000,000 years old? Exactly what needed to be "predicted" as Mozina asks? Meanwhile, the authors estimate a dynamic mass of about 4x1014 solar masses for the cluster, and a mass estimate from the X-ray emission of about 1x1014 solar masses. But the masses are highly uncertain; although the authors do not quantify the uncertainty, they do say that both of these estimates (differing by a factor of 4) are "within the large error budget". That mass at redshift 1.62 should come forward in time as a rich galaxy cluster comparable to the Coma cluster. I don't see a problem here.
We can dismiss the alleged problems brought up by Mozina thus far as either not really problems, or in one case being a mistake (which he might have known had he followed the science literature instead of the press releases). Another failure for "science by press release".
Factually false. No, we do not find "old" galaxies and clusters (old is 10 billion years, not 1 billion years). No, we do not find galaxies "every bit as massive as those we find in our own neighborhood today", if we are talking about high-mass galaxies. Our own Local Group of galaxies is dominated by the Milky Way and M31, both roughly 1012 solar masses each. Number 3 in the group is M33, a satellite of M31, and weighing in at roughly 1010 solar masses, a mere 1% of the mass of the Milky Way or M31. All the rest of the 60 some odd galaxies in our local group range from about 109 solar masses and down. Galaxies that small can form very quickly after the big bang, so finding galaxies at high redshift that are comparable to the mass of smaller galaxies in our local group is hardly a problem. It is in fact what we would expect. The few high mass (like 1011 solar masses) galaxies we see at high redshift occur when the universe is already several billion years old. There is certainly no reason to believe that massive galaxies cannot form given several billion years to pull it off. And remember, the universe was much smaller and more densely packed at high redshift, so you expect hierarchical formation of large galaxies by the accretion of smaller galaxies to work efficiently (and indeed that is the leading hypothesis for galaxy formation in LCDM cosmology, e.g., Baugh, 2006 and citations thereto).
In reality, however, that is exactly what the observations do show us. Some of the best examples come to us from the Hubble Space Telescope. See, for instance ...
Just a few examples of what we actually do see, as opposed to what Mozina wishes we saw.
And as for "old", galaxies evolve because the stars in them evolve. Galaxies look "old" because the stars in them look "old", and the evolution of stars is very mass dependent. As I pointed out in Science by Press Release Failure ...
It's easy to make a galaxy "look old" (i.e., red) by simply giving it some massive stars. Even if low mass stars outnumber high mass stars by a factor of 10, the high mass stars could easily outshine the low mass stars by considerably more than a factor of 10. The red color of a "few" high mass stars that have evolved quickly could easily mask the low mass stars (which are cooler and likely to be redder in color anyway just because of their temperature). So, you can look at a galaxy, see the red color, and call it "old" even if it is only 1,200,000,000 years old. There is a significant difference between a galaxy that looks old and a galaxy that really is old, and it's not so easy to tell just by looking at a picture or even a simple color. It takes more work than that to figure out what the galaxy is made of before you decide between "looks" and "is". And of course, if all you ever do is read press releases and newspaper articles, it's an iron clad guarantee that you will never know.
Bottom line to take away from this post: There is no reliable evidence of any critical problem with hypotheses of galaxy formation in an LCDM cosmology, as compared to the observational characteristics of galaxies in the early universe.
One of the topics introduced by Mozina in an attempt to discredit standard LCDM cosmology is the appearance of "mature" or "old looking" galaxies at high redshifts, when the universe was very young. The allegation is that the universe is so young that there has not been time for galaxies to form, thus falsifying LCDM cosmology. Of course, as usual, Mozina does not quantify this claim. He never specifies how long he thinks it should take for a galaxy to form, nor does he provide any non faith-based reason for believing that the real universe should be unable to form galaxies so quickly.
But, as we can pretty confidently predict, not once have you read, and understood, any of the relevant papers (published in relevant, peer-reviewed journals, etc) on galaxy evolution, especially any which contains theoretical models.
So, fair question, how would you know?
A fair question indeed, which Mozina has never answered. Naturally, one assumes he is very deficient in relevant knowledge by which he might be expected to know. In other words, he's making it all up.
Why are you guys always "surprised"?
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/M..._Eight_Times_More_Massive_Than_Milky_Way.html
So which paper predicted all this stuff DRD?
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=14524
I have already addressed both of these in detail here: Science by Press Release Failure. The first is now known to be a lower redshift galaxy mistaken for a high redshift galaxy, and the second a paper which reports that 2/3 of massive galaxies form after the universe is 3,000,000,000 years old. See my previous post for details & references to the appropriate research papers.
So which paper if I only "properly" understood it, "predicted" this observation:
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=30822
Let us begin to examine this one by comparing the language of the press release with the language found in the associated research paper.
However, it's not the size nor the age of the cluster that amazes the team of researchers led by Dr. Casey Papovich, an assistant professor in the Texas A&M Department of Physics and Astronomy and member of the George P. and Cynthia Woods Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy. Rather, it's the surprisingly modern appearance of CLG J02182-05102 that has them baffled -- a huge, red collection of galaxies typical of only present-day galaxies.
Spaceref.Com Press Release 14 May 2010
The photometric redshift probability distributions for the red galaxies are strongly peaked at z=1.62, coincident with the spectroscopically confirmed galaxies. The rest frame (U-B) color and scatter of galaxies on the red sequence are consistent with a mean luminosity weighted age of 1.2 +/- 0.1 Gyr, yielding a formation redshift, zf = 2.35 +/- 0.10, and corresponding to the last significant star formation period in these galaxies.
Abstract, A Spitzer Selected Galaxy Cluster at z = 1.62, Papovich, et al., 2010; Astrophysical Journal, in press.
Now, you read the press release and you think people are falling all over themselves in surprise at such a thing. And note the part where they say, " ... typical of only present-day galaxies.". Yet when we read the abstract of the research paper, things are quite a bit different. Not only is there no hint of surprise, but we see that the galaxies are seen at an age of 1,200,000,000 years. But the stellar disk of our Milky Way is about 9,000,000,000 years old, and globular cluster stars are nearly 13,000,000,000 years old. These galaxies do not in fact look like modern day galaxies because they are extremely young by our local standard; there are no galaxies that young anywhere near the Milky Way. The press release is certainly attention getting, but it's also just plain wrong.
Seen sitting at redshift 1.62, these galaxies are sitting in a universe that is 4,046,000,000 years old. And if they formed at redshift 2.35, they formed when the universe was 2,844,000,000 years old (the difference being roughly 1,200,000,000 years). Is there some non faith-based reason, by which we are supposed to be "surprised" that galaxies did not form until the universe was 2,844,000,000 years old? Exactly what needed to be "predicted" as Mozina asks? Meanwhile, the authors estimate a dynamic mass of about 4x1014 solar masses for the cluster, and a mass estimate from the X-ray emission of about 1x1014 solar masses. But the masses are highly uncertain; although the authors do not quantify the uncertainty, they do say that both of these estimates (differing by a factor of 4) are "within the large error budget". That mass at redshift 1.62 should come forward in time as a rich galaxy cluster comparable to the Coma cluster. I don't see a problem here.
We can dismiss the alleged problems brought up by Mozina thus far as either not really problems, or in one case being a mistake (which he might have known had he followed the science literature instead of the press releases). Another failure for "science by press release".
In reality however, that hasn't been born out by the observations. We find very old clusters of galaxies less than 4 billion years from the event, every bit as massive as those we find in our own neighborhood today.
Factually false. No, we do not find "old" galaxies and clusters (old is 10 billion years, not 1 billion years). No, we do not find galaxies "every bit as massive as those we find in our own neighborhood today", if we are talking about high-mass galaxies. Our own Local Group of galaxies is dominated by the Milky Way and M31, both roughly 1012 solar masses each. Number 3 in the group is M33, a satellite of M31, and weighing in at roughly 1010 solar masses, a mere 1% of the mass of the Milky Way or M31. All the rest of the 60 some odd galaxies in our local group range from about 109 solar masses and down. Galaxies that small can form very quickly after the big bang, so finding galaxies at high redshift that are comparable to the mass of smaller galaxies in our local group is hardly a problem. It is in fact what we would expect. The few high mass (like 1011 solar masses) galaxies we see at high redshift occur when the universe is already several billion years old. There is certainly no reason to believe that massive galaxies cannot form given several billion years to pull it off. And remember, the universe was much smaller and more densely packed at high redshift, so you expect hierarchical formation of large galaxies by the accretion of smaller galaxies to work efficiently (and indeed that is the leading hypothesis for galaxy formation in LCDM cosmology, e.g., Baugh, 2006 and citations thereto).
We "should" see some sort of progression from "simple" to complex at time marches on. In reality however, that hasn't been born out by the observations.
In reality, however, that is exactly what the observations do show us. Some of the best examples come to us from the Hubble Space Telescope. See, for instance ...
- Hubble Reaches the "Undiscovered Country" of Primeval Galaxies (5 Jan 2010).
The new Wide Field Camera 3 looked at the old Hubble Ultra Deep Field to accomplish the deepest astronomical near infrared image yet made. They find galaxies in the universe when it was somewhat younger than a billion years. The galaxies they find are what you would naturally expect to find; they are very blue (in rest frame color) and very small (about 109 solar masses and about 2200 light years across compared to 1012 solar masses and 100,000 light years for the Milky Way). See, e.g. Bouwens, et al., 2010, Gonzalez, et al., 2010, Oesch, et al., 2010, Bouwens, et al., 2009 and citations to the papers.
- Barred Spiral Galaxies are Latecomers to the Universe (29 Jul 2008).
A census of 2157 spiral galaxies shows that barred spiral galaxies become more common as the universe ages. The implication is that the central bar is a sign of maturity for galaxies (the Milky Way is a barred spiral galaxy). See Sheth, et al., 2008.
- Compact Galaxies in the Early Universe Pack a Big Punch (29 Apr 2008).
Galaxies seen when the universe was lass than 3,000,000,000 years old; about 2x108 solar masses and 5,000 light years across. See van Dokkum, et al., 2008.
- Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes Find "Lego-Block" Galaxies in Early Universe (6 Sep 2007).
Some of the smallest, faintest and most compact galaxies yet seen (in 2007), from 100 to 1000 times smaller than the Milky Way. Exactly what we expect in an expanding universe cosmology; small galaxies form first and build bigger galaxies by merging. See Pirzkal, et al., 2007.
Just a few examples of what we actually do see, as opposed to what Mozina wishes we saw.
In a few cases, we do see massive clusters, as large as 1014 solar masses, as noted above. However, we see them in a multi-billion year old universe. How do you know that clusters that massive can't form in a few billion years, in an environment more compact and crowded than we have today? How is this supposed to be a problem for LCDM cosmology?We find very old clusters of galaxies less than 4 billion years from the event, every bit as massive as those we find in our own neighborhood today.
And as for "old", galaxies evolve because the stars in them evolve. Galaxies look "old" because the stars in them look "old", and the evolution of stars is very mass dependent. As I pointed out in Science by Press Release Failure ...
The main sequence lifetime for the sun is about 1010 years. But the main sequence lifetimes fall fast with increasing mass because the proton-proton and CNO fusion cycles are very sensitive to the increased central temperature that comes with increased mass. So, for a stellar mass in solar masses, a good approximation is tstar/tsolar = (Mstar/Msolar)-2.5 where tstar is the stellar main sequence lifetime and Mstar is the stellar mass. So a 3 solar mass star has a main sequence lifetime of about 640,000,000 years. So if a "massive" galaxy in the early universe has a lot of massive stars, they will look red & old pretty quickly, on astronomical time scales. Plenty of time to look "old" in a billion years, even less. I don't see how the formation of a "massive" galaxy in anything over a billion years is any problem at all, let alone a problem that "blows away" every prediction.
It's easy to make a galaxy "look old" (i.e., red) by simply giving it some massive stars. Even if low mass stars outnumber high mass stars by a factor of 10, the high mass stars could easily outshine the low mass stars by considerably more than a factor of 10. The red color of a "few" high mass stars that have evolved quickly could easily mask the low mass stars (which are cooler and likely to be redder in color anyway just because of their temperature). So, you can look at a galaxy, see the red color, and call it "old" even if it is only 1,200,000,000 years old. There is a significant difference between a galaxy that looks old and a galaxy that really is old, and it's not so easy to tell just by looking at a picture or even a simple color. It takes more work than that to figure out what the galaxy is made of before you decide between "looks" and "is". And of course, if all you ever do is read press releases and newspaper articles, it's an iron clad guarantee that you will never know.
Bottom line to take away from this post: There is no reliable evidence of any critical problem with hypotheses of galaxy formation in an LCDM cosmology, as compared to the observational characteristics of galaxies in the early universe.