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John Edward - psychic or what?

There's an overlap, but I doubt the average magician does as much cold reading as Edward does.
This. Even the mentalists -- who sometimes object to be counted as magicians -- will likely use more 'stuff' than someone like John Edward and his ilk. Then again, the most impressive portions of mentalists' acts, in my opinion, are primarily those effects that are 'stuffless.'

As I have said in other threads (and possibly this one; I can't recall), if you were fortunate enough to be there when Richard Osterlind hits his stride with the right spectator and one-by-one tell the spectator what card he is thinking of -- entirely without questions, prodding, writing anything down, or tricks of any kind (and I mean that) -- you would sign up for his church.

Add to that the Q&A sessions that people like John Riggs have where they have mastered not only cold reading and statistics and warm reading, and a dozen other things that do not constitute cheating in the sense most people think it but also the techniques of crowd control similar to those of televangelists like Ask and Answer. Just now I semi-randomly pulled one of my mentalist manuals off the bookshelf, this one by Jerome Finley (very interesting fellow, by the way, one with whom I used to have online debates). Right there near the end of one routine I found something I have read many times before. End by asking "Does this make sense to you?"

I'll wrap up with my real point regarding RevieV's experience with John Edward:

There are many ways the incident could have been done, but only three have any real likelihood:

1. A hot reading
2. A series of incredibly lucky hits
3. A very skilled cold reading leading up to and through a warm reading similar to what Meg and others have described.

Frankly, from what I read, I lean very strongly toward the third. My only caveat is the list of experts provided by RemieV who said it was almost certainly a hot reading. I respect the opinions of that group immensely, so I have to add that caveat.
 
When Conjurers Go Bad

I think the guidelines on exposing the secrets to tricks should be in whether they're using gimmicks, misdirection, hidden pickup mics, etc.. to claim they have mystical powers and tacitly say they're not magicians. Geller was evidently a bad magician who decided to ride the woo wave and claim he had magical powers but was not performing magic. To me (and to Randi and Johnny Carson) the means, "Geller Season Has Started - Getcher Muskets, Kids!". When Kreskin originally performed, he was very clear that he was a mentalist and mnemonist and there was no magic to what he was doing. In later years, he also crossed over to Lord Voldemort and the evil wizards, so I'd say he's fair game unless he retracts some of that nonsense.

And Peter Popoff - spiritual ripoff artist using known hot reading techniques. How would exposing his technique (or that fake psychic in England who also got caught recently) be any different than exposing Geller's fingernail magnet?

I recall seeing the Mathieu Bich segment on a different YT version - provided by a Bich supporter or Bich himself. Penn & Teller are as careful as possible not to reveal "secrets" if they get the trick (but they couldn't solve this), and if you see Bich's YT, you'll see why. He's selling that effect that he did on "Fool Us". This is the way the man makes a living Revealing trade secrets of professional conjurers should be eschewed for that reason. Some of these folks work for years to perfect a trick. Even The Masked Magician pretty much revealed a series of tricks that any first year conjurer could find solutions to.

But when it comes to exposing charlatans and con artists, Go Get 'Em. I would hazard a guess that Randi would agree.

ETA: And I wouldn't think any of this applies to Edward, anyway. Plants in the audience, stooges, hidden microphones, background research... Those are like Law Enforcement (or Watergate Whitehouse) tricks - not conjurers' secrets.
 
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I think the guidelines on exposing the secrets to tricks should be in whether they're using gimmicks, misdirection, hidden pickup mics, etc.. to claim they have mystical powers and tacitly say they're not magicians. Geller was evidently a bad magician who decided to ride the woo wave and claim he had magical powers but was not performing magic. To me (and to Randi and Johnny Carson) the means, "Geller Season Has Started - Getcher Muskets, Kids!". ..snip

And I think this point is so important for believers like Robin to understand. My little immersion month of reading about mentalist magic has made me realize, and really gotten me to appreciate just how impressive (good) mentalists really are! The amount of skill they need to have in order to misdirect attention here or psychologically cue a person to say something there, by themselves, I find impressive. Then add in the sleight of hand, memorization required, knowledge of human tendancies, etc, as well as being skilled at particular tricks, and the whole thing just really wows me. And don't get me wrong here. I know that I am by no means any kind of expert like Garette and RemieV and others. I am sure I don't even know the half of it.

The stuff Edward does, from a mentalist/magician standard is just not really very good. His cold reading relies almost entirely on his client's wanting to help him, and really really wanting to talk to their dead person, and the absolutely normal human brain tendency that when faced with a rapid fire onslaught of information, our brain quickly snaps on those things we think are important (hits), and deletes/forgets those things we think are not (misses).

An example of that could be Robin's own reading. Has anyone else noticed that she hasn't brought up John's misses? Anyone who's looked at an Edward unedited reading can see that for every hit there are misses, sometimes a whole lot of misses before he gets a hit. Yet Robin, who has argued that she cannot be fooled, and who has argued that the details details details of an experience are important to understanding or appreciating it, seems to have eliminated a lot of details from her own reading.

Can you explain that Robin? Can you remember ANY misses JE made in your reading? If so, could you list them? Because sometimes, knowing what they said "no" to, makes the "yes" guess not quite so out of the blue or amazing. Does this make sense to you? ;)

I realize that now, almost three years after her reading, there is no possible way that we can figure out exactly how JE did his cold reading on Robin, nor can we tell which items were warm/hot reading or how he did it.

Just the same with RemieV's example, though I admit, I thought that was a lot of fun trying to figure it out. I bow to the expert opinion that it was hot reading. I know that JE does use that sometimes, because he's been caught at it at least once. My own persistance in the cold reading scenario, I hope to make clear, wasn't because I was saying, "This MUST be cold reading and here is how!" It is just that I find it a really really fun puzzle to ask, "Could it be possible to do this with cold reading?" and then imagine various scenarios where it could.

And I still think the exercise was worth doing. I think it is good for skeptics to polish up our analysis skills. And taking this story that appears at first read to be an astoundingly good trick, which most certainly HAD to be hot reading, and breaking it down piece by piece to find, as Old man did, that actually, depending on the reactions of the client, and his tablemates, that the whole thing COULD have been done with one lucky guess, good people reading skills, and a dash of bravado, was a valuable lesson, in my opinion.

Just like looking at other magic tricks. Some things just look astounding and unbelievable until you get a clue as to how it was done. And then you just think, "Geez, how could I have missed that?"
 

Probably better than if they played it honest... "This section.... I'm sensing a G and an S maybe Gilligan's Island? Gulliver? No, maybe Gilbert & Sullivan? Or something like that...."

"Oh, I see. The spirit was slow in reacting. It's "Gullible Sucker",... that's it. Uh, you... yeah, the guy with the copper bracelet and the horseshoe lapel pin and four-leaf clover tie. Stand up, sir. Are you a gullible sucker?

"Uh, wow! That's me, spot on!" To nearby audience members: "How does he do it?"
 
Probably better than if they played it honest... "This section.... I'm sensing a G and an S maybe Gilligan's Island? Gulliver? No, maybe Gilbert & Sullivan? Or something like that...."

"Oh, I see. The spirit was slow in reacting. It's "Gullible Sucker",... that's it. Uh, you... yeah, the guy with the copper bracelet and the horseshoe lapel pin and four-leaf clover tie. Stand up, sir. Are you a gullible sucker?

"Uh, wow! That's me, spot on!" To nearby audience members: "How does he do it?"

LOL! That was funny!! You forgot the rabbit foot earrings on the last guy!! LOL!
 
Cool! I just googled up this factoid: "Christianity, in particular Catholicism, is the biggest religion in Belgium with about 57% of the population adhering to the Catholic Church"WP
So if you know 20 Belgians none of whom is religious, you seem to have beaten odds of over a million to one!

That's probably not true.Here's a more precise way of thinking about it: "If you had a list of every Belgian citizen and, had a computer randomly select exactly 20 people from it, the chance that all 20 aren't religious would be less than 1 in a million."

But that depends on the draws being random and independent. A circle of 20 acquaintances doesn't meet either criterion. One's friends or even acquaintances tend to be similar to one another, so the draws aren't independent. And acquaintances definitely aren't drawn randomly in the statistical sense!
 
Here's a little anecdote about false memories -

This morning, at about 8:15, I was sitting in my office at work, when I remembered that I'd been asked the day before to supply treats for coffee break today (a regular Friday event). This didn't seem quite right to me, since we have a list of who's turn is whose (although things do come up, and substitutions have to be made).

I asked the person in charge of the list if it had happened, just to be sure.

Nope. False memory.

The thing is, this memory is just as sharp and clear as any other that I have for yesterday.

I remember her walking up to my door, apologizing for the short notice, walking away, everything just as it should have happened.

Memory is a strange, strange thing.
 
Here's a little anecdote about false memories -

This morning, at about 8:15, I was sitting in my office at work, when I remembered that I'd been asked the day before to supply treats for coffee break today (a regular Friday event). This didn't seem quite right to me, since we have a list of who's turn is whose (although things do come up, and substitutions have to be made).

I asked the person in charge of the list if it had happened, just to be sure.

Nope. False memory.

The thing is, this memory is just as sharp and clear as any other that I have for yesterday.

I remember her walking up to my door, apologizing for the short notice, walking away, everything just as it should have happened.

Memory is a strange, strange thing.

So . . . who got the treats? What were they?

Yes, I'm hungry.
 
Resume, What it means depends on how you look at it. Here are possible explanations:
1) a patron at the library ( I verified request originated at that particular library where we never worked or lived) with a similar last name as my Dad wanted that book but forgot his library card. Asked the clerk to look up his name on computer...clerk got the name in an alphabetical list and patron's name was close to my Dad's on the list (diff't libraries linked with patron names) And by mistake (my Dad impressed thought) the clerk linked the other patron's reserve for the Palin book to my Dad's record.

Robin, would you please clarify why it would require an impressed thought to explain such a mistake, especially if the names are indeed close. The book was apparently popular, which is why it needed to be reserved in the first place. Yes, you said in the next post that it "could be a coincidence," but you appeared to discount this possibility. Why?
 
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Robin, would you please clarify why it would require an impressed thought to explain such a mistake, especially if the names are indeed close. The book was apparently popular, which is why it needed to be reserved in the first place. Yes, you said in the next post that it "could be a coincidence," but you appeared to discount this possibility. Why?

A coincidence would not be spooky enough.
 
Wow. So in addition to watching over the family, Dad now also watches over random libraries no one in the family even uses? Tough job.
 

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