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Moderated JFK conspiracy theories: it never ends III

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It amazes me reading conspiracy books, forums and discussions how people can be absolutely reliable, in some cases while describing how terrible a liar they were.

That brand of circular reasoning is exactly what we're seeing here. I admit it's often difficult to see when one is reasoning in a circle. In a certain way it makes sense to rebut a misrepresentation claim by saying, "Here's where the original materials say what the reporter reports," but that insidiously wrong when you've simply lifted similar language out of a larger body and called that the "relevant part." It's relevant in that it contains the language of the report, but it's not all that's relevant when the claim is that the report is misleading.

The problem with proudfootz's strategy lies in this characterization not being just JREF handwaving. The most common complaint lodged against Mark Lane from the world at large is his habitual sweeping under the carpet of additional information from his sources that dispute his summary of it.

This is a feature of legal argumentation as opposed to scientific or historical argumentation. In court, if a fact is not mentioned or brought to light in court, the judge and jury don't consider it. Those facts, even if they exist in the world at large, are largely invisible to the decision-making process. Lawyers try in court all the time to present only the facts that support their side of the story. You don't hire a lawyer to represent the truth; you hire him to represent your interests and argue diligently for them. That's why Posner, for example, can disagree with Lane on his approach to history, yet hire Lane to represent him in court when his own interests are challenged. For whatever Posner's sins may have been, he recognized in Lane the ability to drive home the desired conclusion.

It's up to opposing counsel to pry deeper if necessary and release additional facts to the trier of fact. And there are rules that govern cross-examination that don't apply to a more general historical inquiry. You can only cross-examine a witness, for example, on matters he has brought up in direct testimony. Shrewd lawyers can structure their direct examination of their witnesses so as to avoid "opening the door" to unfavorable facts that the opposition could discover upon cross-examination.

For example, in trying to ascertain the energy of impact in a car accident, a lawyer may ask the witness, "Did your airbag deploy?" The gist of the question is to establish to the jury a non-technical understanding of the threshold of violence in some vehicular impact. The implication is that if the airbag did not deploy, it may not have been a violent enough collision to have caused the claimed damage or injury. And the witness can answer, "No." It's up to opposing counsel on cross-examination to pick up on that and perhaps ask, "Does your car even have an airbag?" and thereby put that direct testimony in a proper context.

A purely scientific or historical analysis of that hypothetical car accident would put all the relevant facts on the table at the beginning, attempt to reconcile them, and synthesize from an initial hypothesis set the most likely explanation from among all competing claims, considered together. When Mark Lane pulls these lawyer stunts in his writing without an opposing counsel to call him on it, he gets away with "exonerating" Oswald only if, in his mock trial, the prosecution didn't actually show up on the day of the trial.
 
I think they're still trying to frame the discussion as if it's a court of law. Sad, ain't it?

Yes. In connection with my suggestion that Lane and others present a legal defense of Oswald in what amounts to an empty courtroom, it's tempting to write one's own scenario outlining what hypothetically might have happened if Oswald had been tried in an actual court. For example, it's tempting to rewrite the Lane-Markham phone transcript speculatively as a cross-examination and add the appropriate objections that would come from a conscientious prosecutor attending the cross.

But that would effectively validate the hypothetical mock trial approach, which I don't think is a valid approach either to determining the historical question of who killed Kennedy or to determining the legal viability of the case against Oswald. The former because that's not what courts do; the latter because its legal theater, not an actual trial. And once the debate devolves into people second-guessing what some lawyer or jury or judge would do, it ceases to be useful.

Hence the only defensible approach in my opinion is not to follow that method. There was no prosecution, there was no defense, and either side trying to say assertively what would and wouldn't hold up in court simply misses the point. Of course that means invalidating the "first let's exonerate Oswald" approach, which satisfies historians just fine. If you want to find out who killed Kennedy, you have to consider all the hypotheses together -- not just a conspiracy theory artificially emboldened by a premature rejection of Oswald as a prime suspect.
 
So long as 'CTs' is going to be lazily tossed about, it's only reasonable to treat believers in the 'Lone Nut' hypothesis in the same terms.

Unless, of course, their fringe beliefs are so fragile they must be accorded special privileges to stay in business...

Going with the tu quoque? Not choosing to reply seriously to Hank? How many mole holes is your argument going to switch to?
 
So a running theme here has always been how reliable or otherwise witnesses are. I think this video explains the limitations:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyYqZJZ2TsA

Pretty much everybody can give a good description of the man, his dress and his action. But there is a lot of room for mistake. There are good and simple reasons for the "Multiple Oswalds", for Jack Ruby apparently being on the grassy knoll, and more than explains the hesitation of those identifying Oswald in a line up.
 
You can state that your fringe beliefs are matters of 'fact' or that your belief is a 'null hypothesis' that must be casually accepted by all and sundry as many times as you like.
So what's long-supported by evidence, research, and reasoned analysis is "fringe beliefs," but evidence-free contraptions of remarkable complexity and passionate wishful-thinking, none of which, even after 50 years, has emerged as the agreed-upon-narrative, aren't?

Through the looking glass we stroll.
 
So what's long-supported by evidence, research, and reasoned analysis is "fringe beliefs," but evidence-free contraptions of remarkable complexity and passionate wishful-thinking, none of which, even after 50 years, has emerged as the agreed-upon-narrative, aren't?

Through the looking glass we stroll.

FTFY :D
 
Why do the CTists always run away before proving their case? Sometimes, as in the present instance, before even presenting a case?
 
Why do the CTists always run away before proving their case? Sometimes, as in the present instance, before even presenting a case?

Because many only present their arguments when they think they will be accepted without critique. Hence the need to "set the scene" or shift the burden of proof.
 
Why do the CTists always run away before proving their case? Sometimes, as in the present instance, before even presenting a case?

I think this latest kerfuffle in the thread, concerning Lane, was all because the Lane defenders thought they could score some points by semantics. When a decisive counter-example came along they found themselves in a position of actually having to make a case. Apparently they weren't ready to do that.
 
You can state that your fringe beliefs are matters of 'fact' or that your belief is a 'null hypothesis' that must be casually accepted by all and sundry as many times as you like.

So what's long-supported by evidence, research, and reasoned analysis is "fringe beliefs," but evidence-free contraptions of remarkable complexity and passionate wishful-thinking, none of which, even after 50 years, has emerged as the agreed-upon-narrative, aren't?

Through the looking glass we stroll.

He exists in a conceptual climate (I had initially thought of saying "intellectual" but decided the term was unsuitable to the context) where indeed the "long-supported by evidence, research, and reasoned analysis" conclusions of the case are "fringe beliefs", and what is styled "evidence-free contraptions of remarkable complexity and passionate wishful-thinking" are the indisputably-true mainstream.

He thinks the way he thinks, not the way you have it he thinks.

:blackcat:
 
How many hours a day should one devote to whacking moles?

Jeez - I just got done putting JayUtah's bloviating about 'CTs' to shame, and eviscerating Mudcat's irredeemably wrong assertions about prosecutors and their roles in the US court system.

This is a target rich environment for a skeptic. :D


Still waiting for you to whack the mole I cited, Proudfootz.

You remember the back-to-back posts about Nolan Potter?
One showing what Potter was attributed with saying, and one showing how Lane mischaracterized those claims?

I provide the links below in case you somehow can't find them:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=10211813#post10211813
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=10211827#post10211827


I also followed up those posts here:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=10211859#post10211859

I'm still waiting for you to address the substance of these posts.

Hank
 
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Before perusing 231 search result pages, may I ask if anyone knows whether or not this guy's claim has been addressed here? I imagine it was. I'm just wondering it was dismissed as a publicity seeker or whatever.

Ed Hoffman claimed he saw two guys with a rifle shooting from behind the fence at the top of the grassy knoll. Hoffman says the shooter gave the rifle to the second guy who was wearing a "striped railroad shirt". He disassembled it, placed it in a toolbox, and carried it away. Hoffman said the FBI was not interested in his statements.

Brief Ed Hoffman interview video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCaKDn1u7fg
 
Before perusing 231 search result pages, may I ask if anyone knows whether or not this guy's claim has been addressed here?

Yes, twice -- but both times presented by especially incompetent conspiracy claimants. If you think you can avoid the previous pitfalls and make a credible case, please go ahead.

I'm just wondering it was dismissed as a publicity seeker or whatever.

Rejected as non-credible.

Ed Hoffman claimed he saw two guys with a rifle shooting from behind the fence at the top of the grassy knoll.

Which time? Hoffman didn't come forward until 1967 and changed his story several times. In the first version of his story he didn't claim to have seen actual assassins. The story evolved the more times he told it, to include the alleged assassins themselves and the alleged accomplices. The FBI interviewed him and found him not to be credible for those reasons.
 
Yes, twice -- but both times presented by especially incompetent conspiracy claimants. If you think you can avoid the previous pitfalls and make a credible case, please go ahead.



Rejected as non-credible.



Which time? Hoffman didn't come forward until 1967 and changed his story several times. In the first version of his story he didn't claim to have seen actual assassins. The story evolved the more times he told it, to include the alleged assassins themselves and the alleged accomplices. The FBI interviewed him and found him not to be credible for those reasons.

Thanks!
 
Ed Hoffmann

http://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/warren-commission-report/chapter-3.html
.
WCR Page 71
"At the Triple Underpass

In contrast to the testimony of the witnesses who heard and observed shots fired from the Depository, the Commission's investigation has disclosed no credible evidence that any shots were fired from anywhere else.
When the shots were fired, many people near the Depository believed that the shots came from the railroad bridge over the Triple Underpass or from the area to the west of the Depository.57 In the hectic moments
after the assassination, many spectators ran in the general direction of the Triple Underpass or the railroad yards northwest of the building. Some were running toward the place from which the sound of the rifle fire
appeared to come, others were fleeing the scene of the shooting.58 None of these people saw anyone with a rifle, and the Commission's inquiry has yielded no evidence that shots were fired from the bridge over the Triple
Underpass or from the railroad yards. "
.
When a real investigator looks into these stories, and is not merely regurgitating his own personal mental problems...
.
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/FreeWayman.htm
Duke Lane lives in Dallas, and actually goes to the sites of the events, both real and alleged...
"Author’s Note:

This investigation came about after this author’s having stated his “gut feel” that the Ed Hoffman story was not all that it was cooked up to be. Challenged to “read Ed’s book” and being provided with a copy of it, I also delved into the earlier accounts related by others (cited in the text) and began to notice more than a few discrepancies.
This essay is the result of those initial misgivings; my initial “gut feel” having been borne out.

“Gut feel” continues to have relevence even as the story concludes, for it’s my “gut feel” that Ed Hoffman is not maliciously clinging onto this story - nor did he conjure it up from malice - but rather that he had “no choice”
but to perpetuate it, even expound upon it. Let me explain.

My gut feel is that the underpinnings of Ed’s story is true, that he chipped a tooth and took the afternoon off to have it examined and repaired. I believe - with absolutely no basis in or support by fact - that Ed may have
found himself in the general downtown area when President Kennedy was murdered, and told as much to his family and friends, embellished by his having been closer to the scene than he actually was.

Ed’s little white lie was probably the topic of dinner discussions and family gatherings - “Eddie was there when it happened, you know” - possibly downplayed by his desire to “not talk about it” due, perhaps, to the pain of
the memory. As the years went by, it probably got less and less attention.

It may even have been all but forgotten when an acquaintence - a young relative of Ed’s, if memory serves, possibly a niece - attended a lecture about the assassination at the University of Texas at Arlington. Recalling
Ed’s claims of having witnessed it, she announced to the class that her uncle had seen it all. Naturally, the lecturer extended an invitation to Ed to recount his experiences to the class, which he later did.

One can imagine Ed thinking that he was merely entertaining a bunch of youngsters with his supposed exploits, of no real significance if only because, in their young minds, the Kennedy assassination was “ancient history,”
Ed’s story simply an interesting sidebar, soon to be forgotten as they went about their other studies.

The lecturer, however, a former journalist with a widespread reputation in “JFK circles,” apparently took Ed’s story to heart and believed that he’d discovered a new witness not only to the assassination, but to actual conspirators firing from behind the stockade fence atop the grassy knoll. It was a discovery that couldn’t be ignored.

Such a scenario must’ve presented poor Ed with a dilemma: how could he not permit interviews, possibly at the urging of his niece (or whoever it was that had remembered Ed’s story), without exposing the fabrication he’d
been telling his family and friends for so long? Maybe he tried to turn them away at first, but gradually succumbed to the pressure of those self-same family and friends who felt that Ed had to “get his story out” after all this time.

I would like not to believe that Ed saw his chance for fifteen minutes of fame and leapt at it for all he was worth, studying up on details with which to embellish the lie and “prove” his case. Indeed, it’s possible and perhaps
more likely that the details were provided to him by the lecturer’s and others’ questions as they sought to prove
his case for him as they moved their own conspiracy agenda forward.
Here, I should state for the record that I do not believe that Lee Oswald shot Jack Kennedy alone and unaided, and that there was a conspiracy that led to both men’s murders. While the nature and extent of such a conspiracy
may or may not ever be proven, I’m not in favor of conjuring up scenarios with as many angles and perpetrators
as to put Roshomon to shame and lead investigators off into a dozen different directions, only one of which -if any of them - might be correct. “Smoke” should be outed for what it is so that time is spent only on legitimate “fires.”
It is not my intention to necessarily berate an old and - in my studied opinion - a kindly older gentleman who I do not believe intends to harm anyone by his impersonations. It’s my opinion - wholly without basis other than a forgiving nature and a desire to believe the best of people - that Ed Hoffman got “wrapped up in” this whole story, not necessarily
of his own making.
I tend to think that, at worst, he’s just “along for the ride,” enjoying it for what little it’s worth, and basking in the sunshine of all that attention, more perhaps than he’d ever gotten in his life. If it’s merely a “ride” as my research shows, then I think Ed simply has no way to stop it without causing harm to himself and all those who’ve trusted in and promoted his version of events.
Ed openly admitted that there is no way to prove that he’d been where he said he was or seen what he’d claimed to have seen.
Unfortunately, it seems as if there is a way to disprove his claims, and I believe that’s been effectively done in Freeway Man.
In a way, though, I’m sad that I did, not because of discrediting a fantastic story, but for the embarassment it could cause someone who could only otherwise be called “a nice guy.”
 
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