Japan's solar boom has turned into a solar bust

[macdoc]

Not true of gas turbine power sources which spin up pretty much instantly.
I'm sure being hostage to Putin's gas has a play here in the case of Germany.

Your post is extremely misleading.

 

[Belz...]

Sure. I'm actually a big proponent of it. But let's be clear: there is a huge investment in getting your solar panels into orbit.

Not to mention that the repairmen work at quite the wage per hour.

 

[jimbob]

Such crashes are inevitable with Photovoltaic ctechnology at its current stage of maturity.

The overcapacity will fuel a bigger boom next time as I mentioned in post #35

 

[macdoc]

It's the business model that is problematic ....not panel cost/KWH cost.

Lots of new lower cost storage in the pipeline as well.

Germany is being stupid about nuclear.

 

[SashatheMagnificent]

German Greenhouse Gas Emissions Fell 4.6% In 2014, New Data Shows
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/0...as-emissions-fell-4-6-in-2014-new-data-shows/

 

[SashatheMagnificent]

It's the business model that is problematic ....not panel cost/KWH cost.

Lots of new lower cost storage in the pipeline as well.

Germany is being stupid about nuclear.

I think you understand very very little about renewables

Educate yourself here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_response_to_Kyoto_Protocol

Thank you

 

[Puppycow]

Not true of gas turbine power sources which spin up pretty much instantly.
I'm sure being hostage to Putin's gas has a play here in the case of Germany.

Your post is extremely misleading.

Well I was thinking of coal because that's what Germany is using to replace nuclear. The gas ones don't involve boiling water?

 

[macdoc]

They are turbines that spin generation.

more info

http://energy.gov/fe/how-gas-turbine-power-plants-work

About as fast to spin up as a jet aircraft.

Germany and Japan being stupid about nuclear listening to the fear mongerers does in no way negate the incredible progress on renewables.
Ironic that Germany buys power from the 80% nuclear France.

Gas is now making inroads in Germany due to falling prices and LNG production world wide is moving to a stage of glut.

Gas makes a (small) comeback in Germany
11 Feb 2016 by Craig Morris Comments (1)
Natural gas is considered a better complement to wind and solar power than coal or nuclear both in terms of the flexibility of gas turbines and carbon emissions. But gas prices in Germany have remained high in recent years, and the carbon price has been too low to incentivize a switch from coal to gas. Now, there are signs that gas turbines are once again profitable. Craig Morris reports

The issue is that gas turbine is not baseload but rather to meet demand when renewables fall short so there is a high capital cost for occasional use.

There are enormous deposits of gas in the SOuth China sea and concepts like this floating gas turbine power plant make a lot of sense for Japan.

Floating Power Plants
With this in mind, in the fall of 2014, an unusual suggestion was made by Sevan Marine, a Norwegian company that develops offshore platforms for the oil and gas industry. Together with Siemens, Sevan Marine presented a concept for creating floating power plants that could be anchored off the coast. For example, such a power plant would use liquefied natural gas (LNG) to produce 700 megawatts (MW) of electricity for the mainland. The suggestion was well received by the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, because the mountainous island nation has few locations for fossil-fuel power plants that are safe against earthquakes and tsunamis. Moreover, many people don’t want to have a power station in their backyards.

http://www.siemens.com/innovation/e...inable-power-generation-power-ship-japan.html

http://energytransition.de/2016/02/gas-makes-a-small-comeback-in-germany/

 

[macdoc]

I think you understand very very little about renewables

Educate yourself here

I'd say I'm far better "informed" about renewables than you ....
either contribute with factually based content or sideline yourself for everyone's benefit. That is a singularly useless link of no possible relevance.

Why don't you stick to your political forums where ill informed "opinions" seem to rule instead of treading into science and climate policy which I've been dealing with since 2006 and which requires backing your views with supporting papers and articles.

You have posted in the Science forum exactly ONCE - this thread and you have the temerity to tell me to "inform" myself !!!!!

 

[SashatheMagnificent]

I'd say I'm far better "informed" about renewables than you ....
either contribute with factually based content or sideline yourself for everyone's benefit. That is a singularly useless link of no possible relevance.

Why don't you stick to your political forums where ill informed "opinions" seem to rule instead of treading into science and climate policy which I've been dealing with since 2006 and which requires backing your views with supporting papers and articles.

You have posted in the Science forum exactly ONCE - this thread and you have the temerity to tell me to "inform" myself !!!!!

As posting in Randi` s forum and adding a few pictures makes you a Nobel Prize in a minute, I assume

 

[SashatheMagnificent]

Germany and Japan being stupid about nuclear listening to the fear mongerers does in no way negate the incredible progress on renewables.

1) it takes a long time to build a nuclear plant, it takes much less time to build a solar installation
2) by the time that nuclear plant will be ready, solar will be much cheaper than nuclear

I would call someone "stupid" here, but it is not the German or Japanese

 

[McHrozni]

1) it takes a long time to build a nuclear plant, it takes much less time to build a solar installation
2) by the time that nuclear plant will be ready, solar will be much cheaper than nuclear

I would call someone "stupid" here, but it is not the German or Japanese

Can you provide evidence for point 2?

McHrozni

 

[macdoc]

Sasha you are hopeless we know ...you are way out of your depth .....did you lose your way and stumble into the science section??

1) it takes a long time to build a nuclear plant, it takes much less time to build a solar installation
2) by the time that nuclear plant will be ready, solar will be much cheaper than nuclear

Here we will make it easy for your obviously limited background

THEY ALREADY HAVE NUCLEAR PLANTS

The governments are held hostage by a idiotic popular fear of nuclear.

Sweden on the other kept it's nuclear plant going - reversing an earlier decision.

Here is the current state of nuclear power

Plans For New Reactors Worldwide(Updated April 2016)

Nuclear power capacity worldwide is increasing steadily, with over 60 reactors under construction in 15 countries.

Most reactors on order or planned are in the Asian region, though there are major plans for new units in Russia.

Significant further capacity is being created by plant upgrading.

Plant life extension programs are maintaining capacity, in USA particularly.

Today there are some 440 nuclear power reactors operating in 31 countries plus Taiwan, with a combined capacity of over 385 GWe. In 2014 these provided 2411 billion kWh, over 11% of the world's electricity.Over 60 power reactors are currently being constructed in 13 countries plus Taiwan (see Table below), notably China, South Korea, UAE and Russia.

Nuclear is excellent baseload but is expensive in over regulated regions. The Finnish reactor for instance.

Japan needs to close a few ageing reactors and bring the rest up to modern standards to help the transition to carbon neutral

It is being prevented from doing so by stupid people .....FYI this science subforum is strongly pro nuclear.

 

[Tolls]

2) by the time that nuclear plant will be ready, solar will be much cheaper than nuclear

Even if that happened, how do you solve the base load problem?
And night time?

 

[macdoc]

Storage which is already in use in some areas.

 

[McHrozni]

Even if that happened, how do you solve the base load problem?
And night time?

Pumped storage hydroelectric is one option. I once ran the numbers and it's doable, but it would again require a fairly ridiculous but ultimately feasible project of massive engineering - massive artificial lakes on top of entire hill chains and the like. It's doable, but it would be expensive, expose the system to relying on just a few plants to power the entire grid at times, and it would do quite a bit of environmental damage. This would be less than the CO₂ emissions most likely, but still it's not desirable.

A combination of synthetic methane through Sabatier reaction and pumped storage hydroelectric, plus an assortment of small scale projects (e.g. wall mounted batteries in every home) maybe, plus sharing the power capacity through thousands of kilometers (miles) to overcome some regional variations in weather and hours of sunlight? As things stand there isn't one approach to solve them all I'm afraid.

McHrozni

 

[Tolls]

Yes I know that, largely because it has been discussed here a lot.

But that is still a hurdle to overcome, which I don't see happening in the near future. Sasha is implying that Japan and Germany were correct in removing nuclear from their power generation because solar is going to be cheap...but the cost of panels is only a small amount of the total if solar is replacing baseload.

 

[macdoc]

Here you go

List of pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The following page lists all pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations that are larger than 1,000 MW in installed generating capacity, which are currently operational or under construction. Those power stations that are smaller than 1,000 MW, and those that are decommissioned or only at a planning/proposal stage may be found in regional lists, listed at the end of the page.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations

•••

Molten salt

http://www.solarreserve.com/en/technology/molten-salt-energy-storage

•••

infra-red capture

Infrared: A new renewable energy source? | Harvard John A. Paulson ...
https://www.seas.harvard.edu › News & Events
Mar 3, 2014 - Harvard physicists propose a device to capture energy from Earth's ... As Byrnes points out, “The device could be coupled with a solar cell, for example, to get extra power at night, ... 30 trillion times a second, which is what we need for infrared signals,” says ... 2016 President and Fellows of Harvard College.

on an individual home basis storage plus solar is effective far sooner than people think,

Energy disruption: Solar plus storage to be cheaper than grid in 2017

By Giles Parkinson on 31 August 2016
Print Friendly
Some utilities may think that it will be up to a decade before there is a mass market uptake of battery storage, and the chair of the Australian Energy Market Operator may even try to convince themselves that the technology won’t be commercial for another two decades, but they might be kidding themselves:

New research suggests that the cross-over point between the value of solar and storage and grid prices for Australian households may occur within one year.

This represents the biggest issue for utilities....that they end up consigned to occasional use back up position instead of primary supplier....that busts their business model.

And it's not just at home owner level. Major corporations like Ikea, Google, Apple and others are going off grid entirely with their own renewable facilities AND in the case of Ikea and perhaps Apple will provide power to their communities ....

How IKEA plans to go 100% renewables in Australia by 2020, and ...
https://onestepoffthegrid.com.au/how-ikea-plans-to-go-100-renewables-i...
Aug 18, 2015 - Only one big corporate in Australia has vowed to go 100 per cent ... solar will lower our costs,” Wilson tells One Step Off the Grid in an interview.

Apple commits to run off 100% renewable energy | Computerworld
www.computerworld.com/.../apple-commits-to-run-off-100-renewable-e...
Sep 21, 2016 - Apple commits to run off 100% renewable energy ... America's top tech companies have been going green in a big way, so much so that the

They have the money and long view to enable this.

This is no easy time for traditional grid suppliers....especially coal based.....demand is falling in many first world nations and GDP is decoupled due to efficiency

U.S. Economic Growth Decouples From Both Energy And Electricity Use
https://thinkprogress.org/u-s-economic-growth-decouples-from-both-ene...
Feb 4, 2016 - Equally remarkable, this “decoupling” between energy consumption and GDP growth extends to the power sector: “Since 2007, electricity demand has been flat, compared to a compounded annual growth rate of 2.4% from 1990 to 2000.”

Japan has serious issues with it's energy supply companies....especially the nuclear providers whose incompetence made Fukishima worst than it needed to be.

Solar energy and wind business model is a challenge everywhere...attracting capital and trying to predict future costs AND subsidies/contracts from fickle governments.

head hurting?? you bet

Japan and Germany have nothing to do with cheap solar...and everything to do with a misplaced fear of nuclear power.

New renewables are certainly cheaper than nuclear and going under ANY fossil source even without subsidy in many areas.....Dubai I think awarded the contract at 2.99 cents.

Lowest Solar Price Bid In History ... In Dubai | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/.../lowest-solar-price-dubai-800-mw-solar-proj...
May 2, 2016 - Dubai Gets Record-Low Bid Of 2.99¢/kWh For 800 MW Solar PV ..... Texas PPAs was not a fixed price over the contract term, but increased with ...

There is no lower new build tho some historical plants ( hydro ), perhaps some nuclear and some coal can equal it.

The other advantage with renewables is gradual build out....whereas nukes only come in size large and expensive at the moment....same with major hydro. ( British Columbia in a battle over a hydro facility it does not need ).

 

[Klimax]

Pumped storage hydroelectric is one option. I once ran the numbers and it's doable, but it would again require a fairly ridiculous but ultimately feasible project of massive engineering - massive artificial lakes on top of entire hill chains and the like. It's doable, but it would be expensive, expose the system to relying on just a few plants to power the entire grid at times, and it would do quite a bit of environmental damage. This would be less than the CO₂ emissions most likely, but still it's not desirable.

A combination of synthetic methane through Sabatier reaction and pumped storage hydroelectric, plus an assortment of small scale projects (e.g. wall mounted batteries in every home) maybe, plus sharing the power capacity through thousands of kilometers (miles) to overcome some regional variations in weather and hours of sunlight? As things stand there isn't one approach to solve them all I'm afraid.

McHrozni

And a little example from my county:
The Dlouhe Strane Pumped-Storage Hydro Power Station

 

[McHrozni]

And a little example from my county:
The Dlouhe Strane Pumped-Storage Hydro Power Station

Excellent

The only problem is that you'd need about 25 of these for the entire Czech republic, not counting the increased demand from cars (if any) and the like, and that's just to provide the necessary power without regard for how long can it provide the maximum power output. It can operate for only 5 hours and 15 minutes at full power, but if you want to go fully renewable and rely on pumped storage, you need at least weeks of power storage - 250 plants of this size might suffice for Czech republic, but you'll likely need double that, possibly even well in excess of 1000 plants of this scale, depending on the seasonal fluctuations of energy production and consumption specific to Czech republic and other relevant factors.

As I said earlier, the scale of the necessary project is doable but the numbers are ridiculous and nowhere near economically feasible.

Pumped storage hydroelectric has a place in our energy mix, but I find it hard to believe it alone is the answer to all our energy storage needs. If we used mercury instead of water maybe, but the engineering challenges of that are simply mind-boggling

McHrozni